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The Liz Truss thread . . .

Roger · 30 · 1189

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Online Roger

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Here we go   ::)

Interesting listening on R4 Today 8.10am - the intro. points to the Tories making 'so many unforced errors in a short time' ! (this is worrying given the present crisis in European security). Further, one delegate comments that actually PM Truss has 'already healed the split in the Party' but unfortunately she has done so by 'making EVERYONE angry'. Oh dear !

An interesting discussion is emerging about whether benefits will be increased in line with inflation. And in the second Truss/Kwarteng U-turn, the 'debt plan' has now been brought forward by a month. Well thanks for that Mr K - I hope it will be discussed with the Cabinet this time . . . .

The markets have apparently received this news positively - good.

Gordon Brown observes in the Grauniad today that 'huge spending cuts are coming', the cuts will obviously have to be sufficient to impress the markets.

It seems hard to ask the populace to accept painful cuts as we take away the limits on banker's bonuses . . . . and with the Nation still on it's knees after Covid, the UK's support for Ukraine and increasing defence spending to 3%, I wonder where 'cuts' CAN be made.

Another 'rebellion' is clearly on the cards if benefits are trimmed. The reduction in Income Tax to 19% needs to be shelved - U-turn no.3 ? 4 ? Kwarteng may have to resign.

Whatever else, if a viable plan including painful adjustments is to get through Parliament, the PM must get full Cabinet approval and the Party has to be carried along. Can this be done ? And then, the markets have to be convinced . . . .

Kwarteng is in an invidious position, (of his own making).
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online sfs

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I think Truss is in the same position, she was very forecful in all her campaign interviews but seems to get in a dither when question and turns on the stuck record. I think there will be a lot of Rishi Sunak supporters saying we told you so and I still think she and her chancellor will be history in a very short time.
If at first you don't succeed you are clearly not cut out for it. Give up and move on.


Online Roger

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SFS - Suella Braverman - blaming Michael Gove for a 'coup' on 45%. MG SAVED Truss and Kwarteng by forcing them to face reality. Just imagine - a Budget, no Cabinet, no OBR, no Tory party.

The latest on U-turn 2 :-

"Government may stick to 23 November for fiscal plan after all. Kwasi Kwarteng’s medium-term fiscal plan is in confusion. He told GB News his fiscal plan “will be on the 23rd” of November in an interview on Tuesday.

However, government sources are still saying that they are considering bringing it forward, and on Monday night, there were briefings from the sources close to the leadership that it would be this month.

Liz Truss also said: “We’ve got the date of November 23. This is when we are going to set out the OBR forecast as well as the medium-term fiscal plan." "

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/04/kwasi-kwarteng-creates-confusion-insists-fiscal-plan-wont-pulled/

Of course, we have to give the Truss Govt. some time - they have only just started doing the sums and there is a lot to think about. OMG. Beyond belief . . .

I get it - Kwasi has lost that fag packet.

Disturbingly - it seems that Truss and Kwarteng, being the only two behind this, can't get their act together.
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online Roger

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The sooner the Tory Conference is over the better - it's hard to follow what's going on. It's chaos.  ::)
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Offline Coolkorat

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I can't see how they can hang on for another two years: the latest polls suggest a bloodbath: the conservatives would lose 211 MPs. Even if this is a worst-case scenario the conservatives are destined for opposition. Liz Truss is a woeful communicator - conservative press office banned her from doing interviews when Boris was PM because she was so bad. She makes Starmer look statesmanlike, which is boggling.

She will face a rebellion and be backed into a corner. She does not seem the type to go gracefully so will probably 'go nuclear' and call a general election. It could happen before Christmas - betting on Starmer being PM by 2023 might be an interesting bet.

[EDIT; whilst writing this I went to check on the odds and came across this: Last Tuesday, the odds for Liz Truss to leave office in 2022 sat at 66/1; amazingly, those odds are now as short as 4/1 (7/1 available). 

Truss’ exit date to be 2022 is the most backed politics market on oddschecker in the past seven days, accounting for 25% of total politics bets.
]


Online Roger

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Beth Rigby fairly but firmly puts points and the PM struggles :-

" “Prime minister, you’ve been in power for 28 days – but ten of those were when politics was paused.

“In 18 days, then, you’ve announced £45 billion of tax cuts without setting a fiscal framework.

“It precipitated a £65 billion emergency bond buying programme by the Bank of England to protect pension funds.

“The pound tanked. One thousand mortgage deals were removed from the market as interest rate rise expectations spiked.

“You established a 33-point lead for Labour in the polls, and now the ‘lady not for turning’ has announced a massive u-turn on a policy.

“This is surely the worst start of any prime minister.” "

*******************

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jpZSCLIviM" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jpZSCLIviM</a>

Try this link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jpZSCLIviM (seems to work but takes time). Usual response techniques Johnsonian style - bang any drumlet in sight, platitudes and self-praise instead of answering the point.
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online sfs

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She's done in my opinion and will not even last to get a chance to see how it works out. As the betting world is predicting, gone in 2022, I agree.
If at first you don't succeed you are clearly not cut out for it. Give up and move on.


Online Teessider

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Christ Who are they going to choose next? Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss; each one more useless than the last. Member for the 19th century Rees-Mogg, the unhinged Braverman, or some other lickspittle to the mad right wing Tufton street pressure group The Institute for Economic Affairs?
Men never commit evil so fully and joyfully as when they do it for religious convictions.
Blaine Pascal


Online caller

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The tories can't afford to get rid of her! As said above, it would make the Country seem ungovernable. Many experts from abroad, placed the collapse more at the feet of the fed rate rise than anything that the new budget did. Markets don't like such shocks, yet alone the people of the UK! But the pound steadied, but now, today, as with many other Countries, such as South Korea and Japan, who both had to introduce emergancy measures to calm the markets, it's all about what is happening in the US. 

But I have to confess I don't follow UK politics so closely as I did. In some way's, perversely, it's quite refreshing to see politicians make such gaffs. So much different to the controlled freaks that politicians normally come across as.

As for the 45% tax, I'm not sure I understand the fuss about that. For much of Labours last tenure, 40% was the highest rate of tax and when it was 50%, Blair was warned he was costing the revenue money. So it's a fine balance,  as Laffer has established.

Income tax cut brought forward a year, proposed NI rise scrapped, favourable stamp duty changes, IR35 reforms scrapped, proposed corporation tax increases scrapped, controls on bankers bonuses scrapped - hated by the majority, but that is envy, it should help the City, which in turn helps the UK, as should scrapping the increase in corporation tax.

I don't really understand the UK any more more. I have a mate, lived in trust buildings as a kid, similar to Council estates, as I did until my 30's. Rabid Tory hater, lives in a housing association flat in a sought after mainly private development on the river in central London, drives a train for a living - I recall when he was a chippy and refitted my kitchen - just jetted off on his 2nd foreign holiday in a matter of weeks and clearly lives a very good and prosperous life. I struggle to understand such blind belief in identity politics, in the sense of being a proud Labour man. For what end?

I identify as coming from a working class background. I still identify myself as being working class. Most of my friends and family definitely are - postmen, fork lift truck driver, cabbies, only one or two still live in the area we grew up in (Roehampton). Politically, they are a mixed bunch. I know that many of my closest friends voted for Thatcher in 79, as I did, as we discussed it and none of us wanted more of the same mess and chaos as we were witnessing, especially as were just starting off in life. it was the first general election we could vote in. None of us could tell our parents, all originating from solid working class areas, as Fulham was back in the day, which is where many of our families hailed from. I think my friends still all perceive themselves as working class, whether they still live in a council flat or house or private detached houses in nice leafy suburbs. But I believe all of us gave up voting automatically for Labour from day one. Our vote had to be earned, not given blindly.

But the Tories now are at the same stage as Labour were when Thatcher got in - they simply had nothing left to offer. Same after Thatcher quit. How Major won the 92 election is still an incredible acheivment that I won a few bob on.  But the Tories were spent. Then came the Blair landslide accompanied by the usual Labour splits as Brown led them down, which led to the Tories again. And now they look spent. If Truss turns it arouns, it will be an acheivement equivalent to Major's.


Online Teessider

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Not fir much longer
Men never commit evil so fully and joyfully as when they do it for religious convictions.
Blaine Pascal


Online Roger

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The hypocrisy of Trussed. She now sacks Kwarteng (thank the Lord), for pursuing the basis on which the Conservative party have voted her leader. IMO she should have asked Rishi to step in but I imagine she might have seen 2 fingers.

Loopy Liz has saved herself now by dumping her arrogant idiot Pal. Her own credibility is now zilch or less than that.

I wish Jeremy Hunt good luck - at least he will bring some common sense and hopefully, the Cabinet will be included in policy discussions in future.

OMG - hard to believe the eyes and ears. Vote Tory ?
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online Hector

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Her press briefing at No 10 Friday was an unmitigated disaster and showed her to be without any concrete plans at all; the platitudes just came rolling out as usual.  As for the questions afterwards.... words fail me, as someone said earlier, she just put on the stuck record.  The Tory party is in chaos and I don't see them rallying round a new leader (anyway - who?).  Much as I hate to say it, I reckon it could be election time with its subsequent landslide defeat for the Tories.


Online Roger

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The hot money is on the 1922 Committee slipping in a replacement PM very soon - Sunak ? (Many would choose Bojo ? ) Whoever, the sooner the better. With Truss at the helm, the Tory Party seem doomed . . .

I feel sorry for Michael Gove who stood up quietly and early, against an absurd mini-budget that would have soon led the nation to bigger disasters. IMO it's ridiculous that he's now accused of treachery. Gove is IMO a very competent fellow.
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online Roger

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Discussing this chaos elsewhere, (a Scancell Forum), here's some thoughts after listening to 'The Week in Westminster', R4 Saturday 11.00am - I'm a regular listener and find it fun  ;)

'Trussonomics' was a 'right wing think tank idea' that went too far, (ran riot?), due to the lack of scrutiny (except from Sunak), during the process of the Leadership vote by the Members.

Now Truss is hostage to 'CEO' Jeremy Hunt and broadly unwanted as PM by anyone at all. Doomed as she is, she may John Major style be able to stagger on to the next election, (where she'd lose badly as Major did), that is, unless she's taken out and replaced via a coup process, next summer at the latest, a year before the election is due.

Makes sense for the replacement to have wide support and be widely 'acceptable' - the name coming forward at that stage is of course, a duly penitent Boris Johnson . . . .

The Tory Party has now replaced Labour as the 'disruption' in politics - BJ last time and Truss just now !

Suggested that a serving PM should only be replaced at a General Election - I'd add to that, why not start each election with a Leader AND a Second Leader in place and mandated as such ?

It's a great program IMHO. As King Charles says, 'Dear oh dear'  ::)
« Last Edit: October 16, 2022, 07:36:33 AM by Roger »
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online caller

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Truss has no authority now, real or imagined. And as such, her time is finiished.

Sunak was always the better choice in any case.

He has the nounce to settle the markets down and to move on to other issues.

There was merit to much of the original budget, but badly managed and executed. Ultimately, it was as much to do with the two incuments at 10 & 11 as much as anything else.


Online Roger

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Caller thanks for that and I agree, Sunak undoubtedly has 'nous' and he would have been a much better choice, (though myself I have reservations about his wild spending during the pandemic). Hunt, Mordaunt, Wallace also OK choices IMO.

 I guess most of us are watching events at Westminster. I feel quite sorry for Truss with her grandiose dreams on the rocks. She continues waffling on about 'delivery' - FGS all she has 'delivered' so far is chaos and horrors.

AND get the media OUT of Downing Street - show some respect - yesterday there were 2 Sky heroines, chatting together at length with No.11 in the background, both drinking coffee - (necessary apparently due to the cold weather). Well do the chat in your own TV studio then !!

Jeremy Hunt has done the right things so far. Truss is a dead duck surely ?
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online Roger

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BBC R4 'The World Tonight' 19th October - 16.30 minutes in. Sir Charles Broxbourne MP who was Deputy Chair of the 1922 for 10 years hopes Truss will go today. He says about 330 Tory MP's have given up all hope for Truss, just 30 remaining supportive. He recounts that Member's votes got Labour Jeremy Corbyn and now the Tories, Liz Truss.

He is 'fed up' of 'tipping his hat' to Ministers appointed purely on patronage and wants the very best of the Party to be brought into the Cabinet. It's sad to listen to. Every word he says rings true, including, it's 'a farce', 'shameful' and 'utterly utterly shaming to be involved in this'.

Gavin Barwell, Theresa May's former Chief of Staff, later says that Sir Charles spoke very movingly and agrees with every word he said.
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Offline Coolkorat

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Online Roger

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Thanks CK. Sir Charles Walker, MP for Broxbourne. Indeed. My typo.

I think that interview was slightly different from R4 'Today', but you can tell how he feels  !!!
« Last Edit: October 20, 2022, 04:14:45 PM by Roger »
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein