The Pound is NOT on the 'UP' . . .

[Roger]

Sorry I couldn't find the original thread for this topic 

XE.com showing the £ at Baht 41.85 today 

[Coolkorat]

XE.com showing the £ at Baht 41.85 today 

Some forecasts predict GBP/Baht falling to below 40 to the pound, presumably sometime before the Brexit exit. Very bad news for anyone with a GBP income and very little that can be done to mitigate the depreciation of the pound. Shocking when the rate was over 60 ten years ago.

[Roger]

CK good to see one of your rare gems but we could do without that one 

Below bl**dy Baht 40 

Unfortunately, you might be right. ATB

[Roger]

Just transferred my September B65,000 at the princely rate of GBP - B36.48   

It's dropped from B37 in a few days - maybe it'll get worse before it gets better   

[Thaiwolf]

Down to 30 within 3 months if no deal I'm afraid Roger.

[Coolkorat]

XE.com showing the £ at Baht 41.85 today 

Some forecasts predict GBP/Baht falling to below 40 to the pound, presumably sometime before the Brexit exit. Very bad news for anyone with a GBP income and very little that can be done to mitigate the depreciation of the pound. Shocking when the rate was over 60 ten years ago.

Predictions were sadly correct Roger: as I type this XE.com is showing £/bht at 36.75 (and that mid-market, so conversion rates will be much worse).

It is possible that Brexit might actually have the opposite effect on GBP than is being predicted, and GBP might strengthen (particularly if, post-Brexit, the focus falls on fragile European economies). There will be some painful re-balancing which (in effect) the UK is doing now. Property values are falling in all but the most immune areas in central London. The UK is going into a recession cycle ahead of the main European economies, and unusually ahead of the US. And as in previous cycles, you can perhaps predict that the economies that go in first will come out first (being leaner and tighter). Johnson knows this. He knows where this leads and can see that 'tough love' now will give dividends to the UK economy.

For Thailand? Is it the Asian Switzerland or is it living on the back of foreign currency surpluses? Far too disorganised to be Switzerland, and too exposed to foreign consumption. I predict a bubble about to burst which will affect the middle/ lower classes (the tiny upper class having hedged their positions). Going against the predictions I think the baht will fall against GBP as Thailand looks to encourage UK/Aus/NZ/Can tourists and investors, and we will see £/baht at 1/50+ within 14 months [please don't bet your house on my prediction; this is a complete guess!].

[Coolkorat]

Today's rate:

BP/THB close: 39.07
low: 36.96
high: 43.16

These the one year figures, and the two year shows little difference:

GBP/THB close: 39.07
low: 36.96
high: 44.88

5 years shows a much more significant difference:

GBP/THB close: 39.07
low: 36.96
high: 56.26

Interestingly, the 10 year figures do not show the difference that many might expect:

GBP/THB close: 39.07
low: 36.96
high: 56.26

If the pound bounces (as some believe) it will leave an interesting decision to be made by those with GBP savings. I rashly predicted 1/50 within 14 months: It was certainly rash! If it gets close to 1/45 many will have good reason to be happy. The heady days of GBP/THB at 1/60+ are a distant memory, unless there is another catastrophic Asian crash.

[Roger]

On XE right now the GBP is on THB 39.66 which is better than THB 36.2 

Perhaps THB 40 will arrive if BJ gets a Govt. - a bloody majority Govt.   

A pleasant difference when I bought my THB 65 K today      

Thailand's export figures down and their Govt says to lower the THB - let's see ?

That'd help too 

[Teessider]

The best chance of a £ rally is a soft brexit. Fat chance of that if Boris gets a majority.

[Roger]

ATM Teess and IMHO, it's the prospects of 'NO Corbyn' and a majority Govt. that the market likes. Once we have that clarity and a Brexit on 31st January, I daresay the detailed nature of the emerging Brexit will be the issue AND as you say, it ain't gonna be a softee 

I'm guessing the market is already adjusted to a tough Brexit scenario and agree that a rally in the GBP is therefore unlikely - but hopefully no more fallbacks   

[Hector]

OK all, but how many Baht we get for our pounds will depend more on what happens to the Baht in the next few months.

[Roger]

On XE THB is 40.64 to GBP 1

[Roger]

Today on XE, GBP just nudging over B40 

Just guessing if CV-19 doesn't worsen in the UK, this may hold or +   

[Coolkorat]

There must come a point where the Thai government is forced to devalue the baht? Perhaps they are waiting until they can reopen the borders, but given 95% of Thais want to keep them closed this may not happen soon. It is very off-topic but I do think the 'Thai-first' mindset has the potential to backfire badly when bad times need global empathy. It's a two-way street and you can't rely on the concept of 'land of smiles' when everyone knows the smiles are just at the money.

[Hector]

Agree entirely CK; it is almost unbelievable that the Baht devaluation hasn't been forced on them already.  I'm no economist, but I am sure  that there has to be some serious high level  support for keeping it strong for so long in spite of the fact that it is doing exports no good at all.  Thai mindset?  Hmmmm.... wait until the race is nearly over and then back both horses if you can.  But I am sure it will backfire and maybe sooner rather than later if they insist on bringing in Chinese tourists too soon.  Yup, it's all about money!

[Coolkorat]

H - it will be interesting to see how somewhere like Thailand reacts over the coming period. If we are moving towards a new Cold War, and the world divides into 'spheres of influence', will Thailand sit on the fence? Will it support a broadly western 'block'? Will it try for the 'Asian Switzerland' approach that failed miserably in WW2? Will 'Chinese Thai' trump (perhaps literally) a western concept of democracy and self-determination? On balance, irrespective of exercises like Cope Tiger etc. showing co-operation with the US, it is perhaps clear which way Thailand will lean, particularly if the first large-scale flush of tourist money comes from China. I think this is inevitable and we will just have have to accept this different alignment going forwards, however much we disagree with it. Let's face it, anyone who lives in LOS has had to accept the way of things with no chance of influencing it....

[Roger]

CK and Hector - an interesting discussion. CK you ponder this - "Will 'Chinese Thai' trump . . . a western concept of democracy and self-determination?".

I'm just guessing that most Thai of Chineses ethnicity are Thai first. Also MO that Thailand will stay in the 'Western' sphere of influence - that seems quite long established.

But as you say, "Let's face it, anyone who lives in LOS has had to accept the way of things with no chance of influencing it...." Agreed.

[Coolkorat]

Roger - I think a lot of what will happen will be based on technology and relative access. China clearly wants to put "it's" tech (via Huawei) into every country possible. Control the tech, control the mechanisms. Look at Hong Kong; when China wants to act, it does, and the world is powerless. Do any African countries have the power to resist if China has taken-over their infrastructure via loans? No chance. Look at the vote in the UN. China knows it can buy and bully its way into power and the US is away with the fairies.

The USA has been caught napping with a terrible international policy that dates to Saint Obama (who was shockingly bad internationally and been followed by even worse). The US should have been at the centre of international developments with a State Department actively countering Chinese influence in Africa and Asia. Instead we have a US that is navel-gazing and doing nothing more than sending aircraft carriers to the South China Sea. The Chinese are quick learners and saw how Putin did it. I never thought I would see a US that appeared 'scared' (and I do not refer to the military, who are brilliant and not remotely cowed by anyone) - it is the crap politicians who need root and branch reform and the US (and the rest of us!) who deserve a US president with the brains to act.

And Biden will be no better. I sincerely hope a talented, clever politician emerges to run when Biden steps down (which he will). The world needs a really good US president and as a non-US person I don't care if they are Republican or Democrat. Just clever, worldly and capable of bettering the malicious influences will do.

Here endeth the sermon.

[Hector]

Just to return to the Baht - yes, it is recognised by even the BOT chief as being too strong, but he seems unable - or unwilling - to do anything about it.    But I think CK's premise that there must come a reckoning is right on the nail: rice exports for the first half of the year are down 32% and the Thai rice market share overseas - particularly Africa - is being usurped by - guess who? - yes, the Chinese; rubber and sugar exports are also well down; tourist arrivals for April and May were registered as zero and income from tourism for the first half of the year has dropped by nearly 50%. With borders still closed, a prevailing drought in many parts of the country and a group of economic numpties trying to run the show, I can't help feeling that the 'reckoning' can't be that far away.  Add to that the resurgence (dormant during the Covid 19 outbreak) of the student unrest and the country has almost all the ingredients for a "bit of trouble at t' mill".  Could be an interesting few months ahead.

[dam12641]

" ......................the US (and the rest of us!) who deserve a US president with the brains to act."

That would be Ben Shapiro.