Thai general election 14 May 2023

[Alfie]

Next Sunday, Thailand will hold a general election to choose MPs for its House of Representatives. Here's a bit of info on it for those interested.


500 MPs will be elected - 400 MPs from constituencies and 100 from the party-list system.

Voters will each get two ballot papers – one to choose a constituency candidate and the other to choose a political party.

The political party votes will be used to calculate how many of the one hundred party-list MPs each party gets.

If, for example, 40 million people vote, the parties will need to get at least 400,000 votes to win a party-list MP seat (40 million divided by 100).

There are 52,287,045 eligible voters.

Each MP should represent an average of 162,766 residents.

Due to its population of 5.4 million, Bangkok has 33 MP seats. Nakhon Ratchasima has 16 constituencies. Isaan has a third of all constituency MPs. 

Once all MPs are elected, the House of Representatives and the Senate will join together to vote for a prime minister. The Senate was appointed by the National Council for Peace and Order prior to the 2019 general election and contains 250 members.

This means that a winning candidate for prime minister must win at least 376 votes in the joint sitting of parliament. At the last election, all 250 members voted for Prayut to remain as prime minister.

This election is likely to be the last time in which the Senate is eligible to cast votes for prime minister, as this is a merely temporary provision of the 2017 constitution.

It is forbidden to release opinion survey results in the seven days up to the close of voting on election day.


Sources:
https://www.thaipbsworld.com/10-things-you-need-to-know-about-thailands-election/
https://www.thaipbsworld.com/10-things-you-need-to-know-about-thailands-election/
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Thai-election/Prayuth-s-last-run-5-things-to-know-about-Thailand-s-May-14-vote

[Alfie]

Who will win the election?
Good question. The three most recent polls that I have seen all indicate that two parties will get the highest number of votes - Pheu Thai and Move Forward - so it could be either of those parties or a coalition between the two.

Who will become PM?
The nominations for PM of the leading two parties are Peau Thai's Paetongtarn Shinawatra and the Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat. Popular opinion seems to be swinging towards the leader of the Move Forward party, Pita Limjaroenrat, but we'll have to wait for the voting and the wheeling and dealing to finish to find out.


Sources:
https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/politics/40027280
https://nidapoll.nida.ac.th/survey_detail?survey_id=630
https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/politics/40027118
https://suandusitpoll.dusit.ac.th/polls

[Alfie]

In the latest poll, by Thai Rat, Move Forward are now the favourites for both constituency-based votes and and party-list votes. The Move Forward leader is also the favourite candidate for prime minister.

Constituency MPs
Move Forward: 36%
Peua Thai: 29%
Ruam Thai Sang Chart: 12%

Party List
Move Forward: 39%
Peua Thai: 28%
Ruam Thai Sang Chart: 13%

Prime Minister
Pita Limjaroenrat (Move Forward): 38%
Paetongtarn Shinawatra (Peua Thai): 18%
Prayut Chan-o-cha (Ruam Thai Sang Chart): 15%
Settha Taweesin (Peua Thai): 10%
Prawit Wongsuwan (Palang Pracharath): 1%


Source:
https://thainewsroom.com/2023/05/06/move-forward-party-is-the-favourite-in-both-modes-thai-rath-poll

[Alfie]

Today is the day.

[caller]

The day to be concerned is the day, if it ever comes, that the results are announced.

[Roger]

Thanks for that Alfie - what you posted is all I know about Thai politics, (if you see what I mean).

Caller yes - if the situation arises where Prayut is under pressure - will he go quietly ?

[Alfie]

The day to be concerned is the day, if it ever comes, that the results are announced.

The unofficial results should be announced this evening at about 10pm. Official results will likely take much longer. But I get your point, caller.

[Alfie]

if the situation arises where Prayut is under pressure - will he go quietly ?

By all accounts, his party has no chance of winning or even coming second. Third is the best they can hope for.

The vote for position of PM will be very interesting to watch. That's when the proverbial might hit the fan.

[Alfie]

Al-Jazeera say that exit polls for Bangkok show the Move Forward party absolutely dominating there. They predict 32 of the 33 seats on offer will go to the MFP and one to PTi.

Exit poll project huge wins for MFP in Bangkok
Candidates from the MFP are projected to win in nearly all of Bangkok’s 33 constituencies, according to an exit poll by the National Institute of Development (NIDA), a think tank.

The poll, published soon after voting stations closed, projected victories for MFP in 32 constituencies. It said Pheu Thai was likely to win the remaining seat.

Live updates here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/5/13/thailand-election-2023-live-news-excitement-as-polls-set-to-open

[Hector]

Well, I suppose one can believe whichever polls one likes, but the general consensus at 0630 15th is that Move Fwd and Pheu Thai are well ahead.  No surprises there, but now is when the 'fun' starts as the military and the 'elite' realise they are on the back foot.  I expect the dirty tricks brigade and their 'Gauleiter' the EC to be well to the fore in the next few weeks.

[Roger]

Thailand can look forward (or not ?) to a Govt. coalition of 8 Parties and a new PM 

That's good news surely ? 

In the Guardian : "Rukchanok said she realised that being in government would be challenging. Ultimately, she wants to create a Thailand that is more equal, she said, pointing to the education and justice system, where the experiences of rich and poor people are very different.

“To be born poor in this country is a very big thing,” she said. “If you’re born poor you don’t have the resources, you can’t go to a good school, you have less opportunity.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/19/rukchanok-srinork-thailand-giant-killing-mp-ice-election-upset

[Alfie]

The official results are out.


The Move Forward Party won 112 constituency seats and 39 party list seats, making a total of 151 seats.

The Pheu Thai Party won 112 constituency seats and 29 party list seats, making a total of 141 seats.

The Bhumjaithai Party won 68 constituency seats and 3 party list seats, making a total of 71 seats.

The Palang Pracharat Party won 39 constituency seats and 1 party list seat, making a total of 40 seats.

The United Thai Nation Party (Ruam Thai Sang Chart) won 23 constituency seats and 13 party list seats, making a total of 36 seats.

The Democrat Party won won 22 constituency seats and 3 party list seats, making a total of 25 seats.

The Chart Thai Pattana party won 9 constituency seats and 1 party list seat, making a total of 10 seats.



Full details can be found in the link below.
https://official.ectreport.com/overview

[Alfie]

The Election Commission has endorsed all 500 winning election candidates - in both party-list and constituency systems - after the May 14 election.

The MPs can receive official documents at the EC office from tomorrow until June 24.

The Move Forward Party-led alliance has gathered 313 seats from eight parties to form a coalition government.

The Thai parliament comprises 500 elected MPs and 250 unelected senators. As the MFP’s sole prime ministerial candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat must gain 376 votes of endorsement or more than half of the 750 members of the lower and upper house to become a new prime minister.



https://tna.mcot.net/english-news-1192070

[Roger]

Alfie - thanks.

Do you think we will get a new Government as a result of these votes and if so, when ?

[Alfie]

The Thai Enquirer Twitter page has this.

[Roger]

Thanks Alfie.

I was pleased to see this today : "OFFICIALS have started to gradually pack caretaker prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s personal belongings with some already moved to his residence, Naewna newspaper said today (June 21). A Buddha image Prayut had brought and placed at his office and some other items have already been sent to his residence."

https://thainewsroom.com/2023/06/21/prayut-starts-packing-to-leave-govt-house/

I guess we live in hopes . . . . .

[Roger]

So, is this progress towards an elected Government again ?

 "Outgoing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha announced on Tuesday that he will leave politics and resign as a member of United Thai Nation Party. His statement was posted on the party’s Facebook page."

https://aseannow.com/topic/1300380-prayut-quits-politics/

[Roger]

Here's more . . . .

"Thailand’s parliament will gather for a high stakes vote on Thursday that will determine whether the leader of the country’s most popular and progressive party can take power after almost a decade of rule by the former army chief who seized power in a military coup. The progressive Move Forward party, which campaigned promising major reforms to the economy and the country’s power structures, shocked opponents by winning the most seats in May’s election. If it were to take power, it would mark a dramatic turnaround for Thailand, which has been ruled by former military general Prayuth Chan-ocha, a staunch royalist and conservative, since he took power in the 2014 coup and was reelected in 2019.

On Tuesday Prayuth said he would retire from politics, but would remain as caretaker prime minister until a new government was formed. But while Prayuth may be stepping back, analysts say the undemocratic structures that were introduced under his rule remain in place. Under Thailand’s election laws, Move Forward’s leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, will need to win majority support from the 500 elected MPs in the lower house and the 250 members of the Senate. The latter were appointed by the military after the last coup, and it is unclear if they will back Pita, despite his party coming first in May’s election."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/12/democracy-on-the-line-in-thailand-as-parliament-set-to-vote-on-new-pm

[Roger]

This is disappointing - the election results defied ? I wonder where this goes next ?

"The leader of Thailand’s pro-reform party has been blocked from taking power by a parliamentary vote that includes military-appointed senators despite winning the most seats in the election in May. Pita Limjaroenrat’s progressive Move Forward party, which campaigned on a promise of change after nine years of rule by a former army chief, gained the most votes two months ago, but election rules rewritten after a military coup in 2014 require him to have majority support from parliament to become prime minister.

He had formed a coalition with other opposition parties that was expected to grant him 312 votes, but to reach the threshold of 375, Pita also needed to win support from MPs outside his bloc or unelected senators in the upper house. However, all the current senators were appointed by the military and are seen as part of the conservative establishment. Pita ran unopposed in the vote but failed to gain a majority in parliament, made up of 749 members. Only 324 supported him, including 13 senators, while 182 voted against. A further 199 abstained."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/13/winning-thailand-candidate-for-pm-blocked-from-power-pita-limjaroenrat

[Alfie]

The election was two months ago today, yet they still haven't got it sorted out. Amazing Thailand.

How can they expect to improve the country if they can't even sort out basic stuff like this? 199 abstentions. Double amazing! And there was only one candidate. Triple amazing!!