Thai general election 14 May 2023

[Hector]

I have been trying to make sense of the current state of affairs here since the general election in May, so I thought I'd bore you all by running my thoughts past you .......!
It looks as if Pheu Thai, has now put together a 300 odd seat coalition without the Move Forward Party (MFP).  This new coalition of 10 comprises five new partners and four parties that were part of the original MFP led coalition.   Former junta PM Prayut's party is not about to join them to avoid possible resistance from Pheu Thai supporters. (Well, well!)
Pheu Thai has apparently reached deals with the PPRP and the Democrat Party in which these two parties will get five and three cabinet seats each. 
If this Machiavellian plan succeeds, the opposition camp with MFP will have only 198 seats and the Senate is likely to vote for the Pheu Thai PM candidate on Friday, hence a Pheu Thai led government with added old junta guys!
If I have got this right, MFP supporters will remain p1$$ed off and Pheu Thai will have reneged on their promise not to join with any of the junta parties, which will pee their supporters off too.  Lots of brassed off  'sheeple' around!  One pundit noted that when the Democrats did just this some years ago that was the beginning of their downfall, so it may well be that if MFP are clever enough to keep a lowish profile for the next 4 years the next election may well see a serious landslide in their favour, which even the élite establishment may have difficulty in annulling!
This recent horse-trading doesn't surprise me in the least, but the bald fact is that the military and conservative élite have won again and democracy is still moribund here.
None of this relates (I am sure?!) to the fact that Mr T, the junta's bête noir may or may not return to Thailand in the coming days to face one day in the chokey before he gets his 'get out of jail free' card – he hopes!!

[caller]

I'd say you are pretty much spot on Hector.

This piece from Khaosod spells out the level of deceit and treachery by PT's current leadership, no doubt with Thaksin's blessing, to what the party originally stood for. I think they will suffer the same fate as the so-called Democrats.

Thaksin always wanted to be accepted as part of the establishment, but they despised him. His downfall was thinking he cold run, before he could walk, rather than being patient and not seeking to cut them out of thr spoils. So he had to go.

MFP have already defeated PT in their claimed strongholds of Bkk and CM, I think by getting into bed with the establishment, they will lose everyone else.

All those supporters that died in vain. Their memory just trampled on in the rush to join those they once despised.

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/opinion/2023/07/30/opinion-rebranding-the-pheu-thai-party-and-what-it-means-to-thailand-and-thaksin/

[Alfie]

This piece from Khaosod spells out the level of deceit and treachery by PT's current leadership, no doubt with Thaksin's blessing, to what the party originally stood for. I think they will suffer the same fate as the so-called Democrats.

MFP have already defeated PT in their claimed strongholds of Bkk and CM, I think by getting into bed with the establishment, they will lose everyone else.

Yes, I think so too. My understanding is that part of the reason for the MFP's later surge in popularity and eventual lead was due to an increase in former PT supporters who were unhappy at PT's apparent change in who they would or would not enter government with. They originally said they wouldn't join the likes of Prayut and co. to form a government, but as the election drew closer the PT leadership stopped saying that. Even when asked directly, they would fudge a response leading to fears of an undeclared change in policy.

[Roger]

So after the election on 14th May - can we NOW say (at last) that Thailand does have a Government that is rooted in democracy, even if some military influences remains on the margins ?

Is the era of military rule over, even if just for now ?

With apologies for a naive question - I admit to knowing zilch about Thai politics, (maybe to my shame . . . ).

[caller]

So after the election on 14th May - can we NOW say (at last) that Thailand does have a Government that is rooted in democracy, even if some military influences remains on the margins ?

Is the era of military rule over, even if just for now ?

With apologies for a naive question - I admit to knowing zilch about Thai politics, (maybe to my shame . . . ).

No, not at all. Not even close. Deals have been reached by a small group that have effectivelly set free Thaksin in return for  PT forming a pact with the devil. PT are in effect, a minority leader in their own coalition. The military are still steering the ship.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/special-reports/2640461/divided-cabinet-faces-tough-tests

[Roger]

Thanks Caller - that's very disappointing 

[Hector]

Caller is quite right: in essence, this government is much the same as the old one with an emasculated Pheu Thai there to add pseudo-credence to a Machiavellian  stitch up by the conservative elite.  Cabinet ministers have been chosen for their partisan affiliations rather than any attempt at experience or competence.  I have nothing against Srettha and he talks a good talk, but I doubt hell be able to achieve much as he is clearly not in de facto command.  I reckon this government will last about as long as Taksin's jail time.  What surprises me is that we haven't yet seen any serious street aggro, but it's early days.

[caller]

PT voters have already expressed their dissatisfaction at the party's u-turn, and 3 senior PT politicians have repented (as a gesture) by resigning their party posts - but not their new jobs as ministers, or even as MP's.

The first thing all the political journalists and academics are commenting on, is the fact, ministries have been divvied up to the various coalition factions, based on political power. Not based on expertise. PT don't even control all the finance ministries, so their plans could be scuppered from the outset. 

However, there seems a consensus that a reshuffle will take place as soon as realistically possible, putting the right bums in the right seats, or at least trying to, so for example, moving an army general away from education, and presumably, to remove the convicted drug dealer just away.

MFP and it's supporters, would be best to sit by quietly and allow the spectacle of the new Government failing, because of inertia within the coalition - should that happen. They will then be in a position to mop up at the next election, if that is ever allowed to happen. 

[caller]

Good, somewhat perverse, article here by Pravit Rojanaphrauk, from Khaosod English, about the state of Pheu Thai. Pravit is an outspoken critic of the junta. And once supported PT.

According to his report, PT are also backtracking on reducing one-way fares on Bkk's BTS/MRT to 20 baht. That's key in Bkk, as so many workers can't afford to use the service.

Elsewhere the Bangkok Post are reporting Thaksins sentence may be reduced further.

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/opinion/2023/09/03/opinion-the-stinking-smell-of-pheu-thai-party-and-srettha-administration/