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Putin, Russia, Ukraine, NATO etc.

Roger · 46 · 1983

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Online Hector

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Line 1 - for 'south west' read 'south east'.  (Must be getting old!)


Online jungle

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Just watched a senator Lyudmila Mario's speaking officially (in senate /Duma ?) of the huge army losses
She talked of one company of a 100 many were conscripts forced to sign contracts
 ( apparently regulars who have volunteered for the army can only be in combat)
Of that company only 4 are left alive
   That's not going to be popular with army familys
Some back ground on this senator : she is the widow of Anatoly  Sobchak Putin's former boss before he became president
Apparently he died mysterious.... Don't they all


Online Roger

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Thanks for recounting that Hector - interesting.

Re. a possible Afghan parallel for Ukraine in the future, myself I doubt it's possible without those mountains and caves and Ukraine being in Europe. But who knows ?

Jungle let's hope Putin suffers a 'mysterious death' which as you point out, is not unknown in matters Russian.

Moving on - this is mass murder. I'm not sure 'brutal' is enough on it's own - 'vicious, barbaric, unforgivable' - we could go on and on.

Our World is going to be much changed with Russia as a pariah nation and following 'balmy' decades of cheap energy, ultra low interest rates and globalisation . . . . Ukraine is being destroyed and it'll take decades to put it back together. Seeing Ukrainian appeals for help such as 'no fly zones' is heartbreaking. The West rightly fear this would put a nuclear confrontation on the cards and then, all of Europe and the USA, might look like Kiev does now.

Nuclear deterrence is of no help in deterring other aggression, once one side has invoked the nuclear threat and the other side blinks. Terrible days.
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online Roger

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Russia has contact now with Ukraine about escape corridors for civilians but it won't be forgotten that Putin lies whenever it suits him - after all, he wasn't planning to invade was he ?

IF meaningful discussions ensue later about ending the war - I wonder what will happen to the sanctions now going into place ? Maybe the UK/USA/EU should make it clear NOW that some or all of these sanctions will continue irrespective, particularly those relevant to 'dirty money'.

I think it would be wrong if Russia simply says, whoops, settles for taking over some areas of Ukraine and otherwise walks away internally unscathed in comparison with devastated Ukraine.

Whilst appreciating that to some extent, sanctions are a factor in negotiating an accord, IMO, everything can't just go back to normal should some 'accord' be reached  - but there's a long way to go before an 'accord' if ever, but IMO this is the time for the 'Allies' to make the point . . . .
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online jungle

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Good points Roger I believe you are correct
The world won't be the same again
My thoughts are maybe more important than sanctions which will hurt the average Russian more than the elite is to halt Putin's influence in the west
 Which should by now be obvious what effect hes had and having. Can't believe how many make excuses for him invading Ukraine
Just look at London and America and the dis/misimformation they have successfully  spread
   Sanctions on the oilgar won't affect Putin at all as he's the one that can give and remove their power remember he's imprisoned  some before they have no influence on him at all
  But removing all of  them from any source of influence in our politics and media in the west  now is really important
  It's really time to clean house
  IMHO  Boris Johnson needs to wake up he's made the son of lebedev a peer FFS
His father ex kgb now a very wealthy man with bizz still in Russia think he's not connected to putin?
There's been an information war going on for years
We are loosing  it to putin at present I think
Written after a few beers... Hic

Will add this story I know 6 people who have been very vocal on social media about their freedoms being infringed with Covid restrictions  ...mandates lockdown and masks etc
But as soon as Russia invaded they are Supporting Putin and or understand Putin's point of view (NATO creeping east etc)  not a thought for Ukraine's right to freedom.... from war
What shapes this thought I think it comes from the same sources
Putin and  usefull idiots have been working away at our trust in our systems and instutions for a while now
Over reacting maybe but there is now war in Europe who thought that was possible 3 months ago?






Online Thaiwolf

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The bigger picture here is that it now seems that any nuke possessing nation has now been given carte blanch to invade any other sovereign nation without fear of retaliation. The Yanks will invade any non nuke country but is unwilling to take on the big boy nuke nations.

It now seems clear that it is absolutely vital to prevent rogue nations such as Iran/North Korea from obtaining a nuclear capability.

I imagine the Chinese rubbing their hands with glee and planning when is the right time to take Taiwan, knowing that the West will not intervene for fear of nuclear escalation.

I see no solution to the present impasse in Ukraine and fear escalation and inevitable nuclear exchanges.


Offline Alfie

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^ The US has often hinted to lesser enemies to remind them that it has nuclear weapons to ty to make them fall in line. It's one of the benefits of having nuclear weapons. The other benefit is that no other country is likely to try to invade your country. Perhaps all countries should have nuclear weapons, then there would be much less chance of having any wars at all.

Back to Ukraine, the problem as I see it now is that NATO are gradually getting sucked into this, despite saying they will not get involved. They are. Not only are they supplying intelligence and weapons to Ukraine, they have also sent military trainers to Ukraine.



https://twitter.com/nexta_tv

A quick victory or a capitulation would be best in order to reduce the amount of death and destruction. A long drawn-out war will hurt all sides who have become involved in it in some way (Ukraine, Russia, EU, NATO mostly).



Online jungle

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Alfie Yea if Ukraine still had it's nukes Putin wouldn't have tried
Putin only threatened nukes after NATO repeated it would not enter the Ukraine
 Maybe it would be better to take Putin on now in Ukraine that await his next move ?
   Putin has been at war with the west for may years already
Listen to PM Mays speech in 2017 the warning was there nothing done though

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2017/11/14/theresa-may-speech-lord-mayors-banquet.cnn
 
In answer to roger on long-term sanctions
I hope it won't end up like the Japanese sanctions :0/
 


Online jivvy

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This is a Facebook post by a part Russian artist named Aleksey Igudesman....
Aleksey Igudesman is known as a violinist, composer, conductor, film maker and entrepreneur

I found his comments interesting

’Dont you have anything to say about the situation in Ukraine???
As a Russian musician and a leading artist… Very disappointing, dear Aleksey 🙁 “
As I keep on getting messages like the one above, I would like to make my position quite clear:
I think any kind of war is horrific, pointless and does not belong in this century.
From what I have heard and read on the sites that are available to me, this aggression on the Ukraine from Putin was unprovoked and unnecessary.
That is my personal belief.
I am an artist and musician and my knowledge and insights into politics is very limited.
In general it is not the responsibility of artists to make political statements.
That we condemn war and oppose aggression, should be a given in our profession.
I myself have Jewish, Russian, Ukrainian, Latvian, Austrian and German roots.
However, I personally do not care too much about any of that. 
I have always felt like a human being that is not tied to any nation, nationality, or ethnicity.
When my family and I left the Soviet Union in 1979, we had to give up our Soviet passports.
So in actual fact, I was never actually Russian. In our passports back then, it did not even say “Russian" - it said “Jewish”.
What is happening to the people of Ukraine is clearly a tragedy.
Presently, I am finding the right charities to work with and putting support into place, as well as working out how I can help in other ways.
However, I am begging everyone to stop witch-hunting and forcing them to give political statements.
To stop programming Russian music and to cancel Russian musicians, and other performing artists, regardless of whether they give statements or not, is deeply racist and intrinsically short-sighted.
Tchaikovsky has nothing to do with Putin. They never met and never will.
Imagine the following scenario:
You are a Russian artist who lives in Moscow with a family and a child, or who has family in Russia.
If you give statements against the government, the danger of something happening to you or your family in a regime like Russia is very real.
No-one should be forced to become a martyr and put their family and livelihood in danger. If one does, that has to be the individual's own choice.
Being persecuted on media and social media and disinvited from performances just shows how deeply screwed up our beliefs and understanding of today's world is, and how little empathy we really have for one another.
We shout for freedom of speech, but punish people when they differ in opinion or stay silent because they are scared of sharing their opinion due to real threats to themselves.
We ask for political correctness, equality and empathy, but we fail to put ourselves in other people's shoes and look at a different side or concern besides our own.
Please, let us people in the music world focus on the things that we can do well and are truly important coming from us, which is:
Helping the people in need in whatever way we can and spreading the message of music, love and peace.
One should never do wrong in return, nor mistreat any man, no matter how one has been mistreated by him.”
- Socrates


Offline Alfie

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I see the Thai government has been thoughtful and helpful towards citizens of Ukraine and Russia in Thailand.



The government has announced that it will waive application fees for nearly 7,000 Russian and Ukrainian tourists in Thailand who wish to renew their visas. It will also consider steps to provide humanitarian assistance to individuals affected by international flight cancellations.

Yuthasak Supasorn, governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), said the decision was made in response to a request by the Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) for authorities to assess the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The CCSA also asked for solutions to be proposed to assist stranded tourists, as around 7,000 travelers from Russia and Ukraine visited the four tourist destinations of Phuket, Koh Samui, Pattaya and Krabi.

Yuthasak said travelers can renew their 30-day visas without paying the application fee of 1,900 baht for Ukrainians and Russians. Additionally, tourism operators are working with China’s UnionPay to provide an alternative payment channel for Russian visitors.

The TAT governor said the administration is also looking for ways to ensure that tourists in need of medical attention are treated adequately by all hospitals. He added that officials from both nations are coordinating repatriation flights for their citizens.

NBT World


Online Roger

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Some thoughts on recent news :-

'Negotiations' - a cease fire would be fantastic but after that, negotiations have nowhere to go, whilst Putin is around.

Devastation of Ukraine - the FT mentions that Ukraine's infrastructure has taken a $100 billion hit already.

Cracks appearing - "Russian state television has broadcast calls for Vladimir Putin, the country’s president, to stop his war in Ukraine during a programme in which pundits openly likened the invasion to "Afghanistan, but even worse"." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/10/afghanistan-even-worse-ukraine-war-denounced-russian-state/

This will hurt - "The Russian foreign minister’s alleged “second family”, including Svetlana Polyakova, his mistress, and Polina Kovaleva, her 26-year-old daughter, were identified as among those officials should look at." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/03/10/daughter-sergei-lavrovs-mistress-should-next-line-russian-sanctions/

"Russia is facing effective bankruptcy as soon as Wednesday after the World Bank warned that crippling sanctions have left the Kremlin “mighty close” to a default on its foreign debts." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/10/russia-belarus-mightily-close-default-world-bank-warns/

The World is changing fast . . .
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online Roger

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IMHO - the World is at odds with Putin, not at odds with most of the Russian people. Thankfully Russians on holiday in Thailand have return tickets. But Russian expats have a serious problem.

Thailand will miss Russian tourism but hey - that's life. The idea of specially facilitating Russian tourism in these circumstance will be decried around the World and is likely to rebound - very soon. I despair at Thailand's 'tolerance' of matters Russian (and matters Myanmar too).

On the same theme, in the world of sport, it's correct to ban Russian National teams BUT I'm not sure the same applies to individual Russian citizens, certainly those who don't approve of Putin's actions.

I was really glad to see the Russian F1 race cancelled - it's been nauseating watching Putin around the podium and the drivers in recent years. And chucked out of the World Cup too - bravo !
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online Roger

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Different noises noted in the last days e.g. Lavrov talking about reviving the JCPOA as Zelenskiy seems to rule out NATO membership for Ukraine.

Russia appearing 'helpful' in one respect and Ukraine conceding a point ?

'Negotiations' are all very well but Russia cannot just say 'whoops' and walk away from the consequences of it's murderous and unforgivable war. Even if a way is found for hostilities to cease, that can't be the end of it . . . . i.e. Ukraine agrees to stay neutral and maybe concedes some russian speaking areas ?

Prosecution of Putin and Co as war criminals is being initiated and will surely proceed. Sanctions imposed on Russia should remain in place until Putin's Bear keels over. If Putin falls and Russia relents then maybe some changes in the sanctions regime can be considered. In 10 years time  >:(

I'm surmising that Russia thinks that when hostilities cease, everything else goes back to normal. IMHO absolutely NOT !
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Offline Alfie

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Some western volunteers apparently not getting what they expected in Ukraine so are fleeing.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8Pf5Ewrby0" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8Pf5Ewrby0</a>


Online Roger

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Thanks Alfie. As for Ukraine  - that's gratitude for you - more here https://uk.yahoo.com/news/briton-travelled-join-ukraine-military-134751357.html

Whilst admiring the bravery and concern of these Guys, most Countries have advised against their Citizens going to Ukraine to resist Russia because of the wider implications. However, you'd think the least Ukraine could do is to treat them with some respect.

I was thinking, how different the World might be now had Russia managed to maintain some democracy and somebody like Navalny was at the helm. The West has dithered and sucked up to Putin despite Salisbury, KLM, Syria and Crimea etc. and here we see the result, (but hindsight doesn't help).

Merkel's legacy hangs in shreds . . . .

Both Putin and Lavrov have used the UK/USA action in the 2nd Iraq war to deflect criticism making our own violent aggressor, Blair, blush again.
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online Roger

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 Howls of anguish in Moscow as Joe Biden makes a 'war criminal' comment 🙄 With all due respect to the Russian people, I say, well done Joe ! Or to pose it differently, if Russia's unprovoked destruction of Ukraine and the murder of tens of thousands of Ukrainians is NOT a war crime then FGS what is??

Diplomacy is always important but Russia's murderous actions have to be called out - every Country should say this quite clearly, Putin IS a war criminal and Putin can never be accepted again by the International community. Russia itself is a pariah state whilst he is there https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/17/ukraine-urges-leaders-echo-joe-bidens-condemnation-vladimir/ One day, lock him up - throw away the key.

It's suggested that Biden's comments might jeopardise 'peace talks'. To put  that in perspective, hopes for any meaningful accord with Putin's Russia are tenuous and we should remember that Russia denied repeatedly any intention to invade Ukraine in the first place. Putin is a bare faced liar as well as a 'war criminal'.

I will be interested to see the extent to which commercial interests reassert themselves if/when hostilities cease - vis the comprehensive sanctions now in place. No way should the ending of sanctions be introduced in 'peace' negotiations. On the contrary - I think the World should assert NOW that all sanctions will be maintained for at least 5 years. It's not about 'punishing' Russia - just a nod to justice.

I see Sky now say 90% of Mariupol's buildings are now destroyed or severely damaged - who foots that bill??
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Offline Alfie

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Back to Ukraine, the problem as I see it now is that NATO are gradually getting sucked into this, despite saying they will not get involved. They are. Not only are they supplying intelligence and weapons to Ukraine, they have also sent military trainers to Ukraine.

Apparently three American military "trainers" have been killed in Marinka, Ukraine: Captain Michael Hawker, Lieutenant Logan Shrum and Lieutenant Cruz Toblin.

Google maps says Marinka is in Donetsk. It seems a highly risky place to do "training". But I doubt they were really there doing training. It's more likely they were directing operations.


Online Roger

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Online Roger

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"Britain could lift sanctions crippling Russia if Vladimir Putin withdraws from Ukraine and commits to "no further aggression", Liz Truss has said. In an interview with The Telegraph, the Foreign Secretary set out a blueprint for the so-called "off ramp" that the Russian president could be offered to halt his assault on Ukraine.

Ms Truss - who revealed that she has established a "negotiations unit" in the Foreign Office to aid future peace talks - said sanctions on Russian banks, firms and oligarchs could be lifted in the event of "a full ceasefire and withdrawal
" ".   ::) ::) ::) ::)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/03/26/crippling-sanctions-could-lifted-russia-withdraws-ukraine-says/

This Woman is a menace. She should be talking about a permanent set of sanctions on the Oligarchs and a minimum 10 years for the sanctions on Russia. It's as if she feels 'whoops', never mind Vlad, go home and all will be well. She is plain barmy and out of her depth.

BJ should sack her now IMVHO.
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein