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General => General Discussion => Topic started by: Alfie on January 18, 2017, 09:24:19 PM

Title: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on January 18, 2017, 09:24:19 PM
I've just watched Theresa May's Brexit speech. Quite good, I thought. What do you think?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mb14pyIqosk
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on January 18, 2017, 10:03:53 PM
I agree. Made a lot of sense to me. The EU politicians need to decide if they really want to cut off their collective noses to spite their faces regarding a trade deal. Their language suggests they do. Looking forward to Mutter explaining to a German car worker that he is losing his job for the sake of EU unity. Hopefully sense will prevail.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pompui on January 18, 2017, 10:42:34 PM
Well, the pound has gone up after her speech, so that's a good thing.
Will be interesting to see the Euro leaders and the Scots reactions.
She mentioned that there will have to be compromises along the way, I wonder what they will be.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on January 19, 2017, 06:00:12 AM
Alfie thanks for posting Theresa May's speech - I listened to it throughout.

My thoughts :-
1. TM really is a good performer with a speech and I am pleasantly surprised with the amount of authority she projects .
2. Compared to our last Lady PM, TM can be strong without sounding affected, false and shrill.
3. The Govt. have taken all the hard and good decisions necessary IMO and this speech communicated the UK Govt's determination with dignity.
4. Other EU Members surely cannot miss the sense of the message about continuing with us as trading partners, friends and allies.

Pompui yes the £ had a little bounce - hopefully by the late summer we might get back to B48 or thereabouts. I am still 100% in favour of Brexit.

Well done Mrs May !



   

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dereklev on January 19, 2017, 02:03:37 PM
I too thought it was a well delivered speech which was firm yet conciliatory.

I think the UK holds a few "Trump" cards in the negotiations now. I did like Donald's comment about putting 35% tax on BMW imports to the States :D

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on February 22, 2017, 01:54:41 PM
I enjoyed seeing the PM Mrs May, sitting on the steps in the 'Lords' watching the progress of the Article 50 debate. And then Boris J did the same later apparently. It appears that the Govt. are going to stand firm against any 'Lords' resistance.

It is hard to know what the real progress is with Brexit - every connected comment from anywhere seems to get hyped up while the real work goes on in a few minds in Govt. and in the Ministries. IMO it will all come out OK as EU interests accept the inevitability and start to make the best of the future with the UK outside it.

Time will tell.

Hopefully the dreadful Tony Blair will crawl away before too long and leave the democratic process alone.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: floyd77 on February 23, 2017, 05:05:03 PM
The "un-electeded "pm will drag you's all off the cliff. Your going to be overun with indians and aussies due to your brilliant free trade deals ...! Thank fuck for the S.N.P !! How ironic is your post Roger...ypu are  watching one un-elected fool, overlooking a house full of even more un-elected fools,
then watched over by a self confessed remaining fool ! All this for the sakes of taking back control of "Democracy" IMO you are well and truly screwed. !!
Real progress on Brexit???
The only real progress that i see is that the so called "U.K " is dead in the water and little England is a sinking ship thats trying to emulate 30's Germany !!
Im enjoying watch this unfold and im looking forward to the day that We consign yous fools to decades of Tory fools rule ,while we take control of our bright futures. !! Thank You Rodger .
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on February 23, 2017, 06:10:31 PM
Your going to be overun with indians and aussies due to your brilliant free trade deals ...!

That's probably the silliest prediction I have seen about Brexit.

little England is a sinking ship thats trying to emulate 30's Germany !!

Trying to emulate 1930s Germany? How so?

im looking forward to the day that We consign yous fools to decades of Tory fools rule ,

You mean they will get who they vote for?

while we take control of our bright futures. !!

Good luck!

But I suppose you'll have to ask the UK government for permission first, so speak nicely to Mrs May and the Tories.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on February 23, 2017, 07:06:24 PM
Where's Floyd from (when he's sober  ;D)?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: floyd77 on February 24, 2017, 01:37:52 PM
Im from Gods country Caller, however currently in Laos and beer Lao so cheap here ;)
Alfie , you realise all these so called "free trade deals" that the May Muppet is negotiating , will include more "immigrants" coming to England.
And in ref to 30s germany.. Hate crimes are up so much in England. The snoopers charter is reminiscent of the stazzi/gustapo. And May Muppet thinks shes the femme Adolf!! Welcoming racists like Trumpet with open Arms to meet the Queen "fellow german aristocracy"
We will claim our freedom without asking stupid tory fools!!
Saor Alba !! 😉

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on February 24, 2017, 02:29:24 PM

Must have a lot of newts in Laos
still not sober!!!!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on February 24, 2017, 05:21:00 PM
Im from Gods country Caller

Yorkshire?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Hector on February 25, 2017, 07:16:36 AM
Just to move away from the rather inane direction this topic was beginning to take, this article in today's Indy should buck us up - if true!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/pound-sterling-is-the-most-undervalued-world-currency-and-will-rebound-to-pre-brexit-levels-a7597666.html
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on February 25, 2017, 08:14:41 AM
The American  'Treasury' stated the same a couple of weeks back in some sort of advisory note. I am wary  of anything coming out of the EU in these pre-negotiation days.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on February 25, 2017, 08:49:51 AM
Saor Alba !! 😉

Ah, you're Scottish! I think Anton & maybe others would request you start a new thread about a free Scotland, but as this is simpleton Sturgeons threat to the UK if Brexit happens, I'd say fine, go ahead, do your own thing. You're broke because of SNP policies and getting more in debt everyday. The level of debt in Scotland precludes membership of the EU by the EU's very own rules (although that doesn't mean much) and alone, you'll be in a worse state than Greece and as it is you're only surviving via Government subsidies, which in fairness applies to the whole of the UK. But the debt level is a lot lower south of the border.

Bon voyage!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on February 25, 2017, 03:54:37 PM
Alfie , you realise all these so called "free trade deals" that the May Muppet is negotiating , will include more "immigrants" coming to England.

I really don’t believe that will happen or be agreed to in any future trade deal

And in ref to 30s germany.. Hate crimes are up so much in England.

Police Scotland report an increase in hate crimes following the EU referendum
THERE was a rise in the number of crimes reported to police following the vote in June.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/police-scotland-report-increase-hate-8688744 (http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/police-scotland-report-increase-hate-8688744)

Number of hate crimes against Muslims in Scotland nearly double over past year
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/number-hate-crimes-against-muslims-8901809 (http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/number-hate-crimes-against-muslims-8901809)

We will claim our freedom without asking stupid tory fools!!

If Scotland secedes unilaterally from the UK, the EU will refuse to accept Scotland as a member.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: enrico on February 25, 2017, 07:37:26 PM
caller ?  i dont think anton is scottish,, in fact i think i met him once about a year ago outside the klang ? im six foot tall, he ask if i was spanish, i said no english?  i ask him if he was spanish, he said no FRENCH ? if im wrong then i will say im sorry,but he was taking photos.  LOL    ENRICO
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on February 25, 2017, 08:58:34 PM
caller ?  i dont think anton is scottish

I never said he was, I was talking about Floyd.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on March 11, 2017, 02:33:02 PM
Brexit
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 11, 2017, 03:55:21 PM
Hi Teess. Thanks for that pic. But that's all ??
What are your thoughts on that pic and brexit atm ?
ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on March 11, 2017, 07:22:43 PM
I agree with the sentiments in the pic. The referendum was a mistake, badly thought out, poorly campaigned, poorly handled in the media and dishonestly campaigned by the leavers. It is now being poorly managed by an unelected pm with some of the leat able government ministers I can remember enabled by the feeblest opposition I can remember.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 11, 2017, 10:38:58 PM
I agree with the sentiments in the pic.

Portraying the British as Nazi's?

Are you serious?

And pray tell, how have you conjured up your answer as being representative of that pic?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on March 11, 2017, 11:22:46 PM
Maybe you can explain to me why you support Brexit when it hurts you financially due to the drop in the pound  while not coming across as a little Englander
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: enrico on March 12, 2017, 08:06:30 AM
let me tell you a true story? when i started school in the 1940 s. we were at war? most teachers went off to the war effort, only some ladies from up the street were left to teach us ,so we never went, nobody cared ? i could not read or write untill i went into the army .  my first job , british rail 2 years 2nd job down the coal mine ? ten years goverment jobs, no pension ..i came to thailand in 2004, the bhat then 75 to the pound ,now its 42/43 ? but i still wanted to leave the E.U........teesside, you come across like the old say-ing ..knows the price of everything but the value of nothing.    ps  i forgot to say six years in the british army ?   total gov jobs ten years total pension none...oap pension frozen E
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 12, 2017, 09:14:53 AM
Good morning Teess.

To repeat the ask, you don't seriously think we Brits are Nazi now ?
Or that the Europeans are invading us ?

Referendum a mistake ? Well it turned out badly for DC that's for sure.
But as all the old Parties were split over the EU in the face of the UKIP onslaught, it was important IMO to find out what the people thought - the Party Political system couldn't do that this time.
Badly thought out ? How? A simple decisive question was asked and a clear answer was given.

As for the media, they scrummaged in their partisan ways and both sides were dishonest and manipulative in the campaign.

The Government - well Theresa May is and elected PM under our Constitution so that's that. It's easy to disparage but I must say I'm glad the present Cabinet are managing the UK rather than you or me !

Why support Brexit ? Myself I am against too much centralisation, too much red tape and regulation and being governed by self serving EU Commissioners. In time, the UK will have better control of Immigration matters being OUT of the EU.

The exchange rate hurts atm - I arrived in Thailand 7 years ago and bought my house at B46 so I missed the golden B70 days. Evenso, sometimes there are more important things to vote for than spare cash in the pocket. And the £ will bounce back strongly in due course as the Euro wobbles and so on.

I'm sure you were just playing Devil's advocate in your original post/pic. Or in the words of McEnroe and Caller - you cannot be serious !! ATB

Enrico - enjoyed that.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 12, 2017, 11:06:22 AM
Maybe you can explain to me why you support Brexit when it hurts you financially due to the drop in the pound  while not coming across as a little Englander

Ah, the old politicians ploy of answering a question with a question.

So you can't answer my question? Of course you can't, it was just a glib, unthinking, use of an insensitive image as a vehicle to express your angst. There seems to be a lot of that about these days.

As for coming across as a little Englander, I'll leave that to you as I wasn't thinking of myself when I made my decision. It's funny how the phrase originates from the Liberals when they were opposed to British expansionism back in the day.

Edit. I just noticed the pic has been removed. Why?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 12, 2017, 03:18:39 PM
Caller the pic is still there.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 12, 2017, 03:21:21 PM
Caller the pic is still there.

So it is - thanks. My mistake.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 13, 2017, 07:32:50 PM
We will claim our freedom without asking stupid tory fools!!

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39255181 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39255181)

51 minutes ago

Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed she will ask for permission to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence.

She said she would ask the Scottish Parliament next week to request a Section 30 order from Westminster.

Prime Minister Theresa May has so far avoided saying whether or not she would grant permission.

 ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 14, 2017, 06:15:49 AM
Alfie it's my guess that Theresa May will NOT allow a second referendum on Scottish Independence, so Floyd may be disappointed.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 14, 2017, 06:25:39 AM
Floyd after Alfie's post, I had a look back at your amazing thoughts in February which I had not seen.
I hope you have sobered up now M8 and I'll try some Beer Lao myself asap !
I'm afraid you can bluster all you like but it looks like you Scots are staying in the UK and coming out of the EU too.
You know you'd miss us really.
Oh and btw, God's Country is actually my fair Cornwall . . . . . .
Tories rule OK !
TCOY
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 14, 2017, 01:48:51 PM
It's coming soon ...




Parliament has passed the Brexit bill, paving the way for the government to trigger Article 50 so the UK can leave the European Union.

The bill is expected to receive Royal Assent and become law on Tuesday.

The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg said this would leave Theresa May free to push the button on withdrawal talks.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39262081 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39262081)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on March 15, 2017, 03:28:48 PM
Re. the Scots referendum

'm afraid you can bluster all you like but it looks like you Scots are staying in the UK and coming out of the EU too.
You know you'd miss us really.  (http://'m afraid you can bluster all you like but it looks like you Scots are staying in the UK and coming out of the EU too.
You know you'd miss us really.)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 15, 2017, 03:35:08 PM
Jivvy of course I realise that pic doesn't represent your views, it's just for info.
I shudder to think what Floyd and Teess will have to say about it.
All good fun eh ?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on March 15, 2017, 04:14:59 PM

Mind you, it is probably true of most politicians regardless of party or gender !!!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on March 15, 2017, 04:32:30 PM
How about this?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 16, 2017, 02:58:59 PM
The Brexit Bill is expected to get royal assent today.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 16, 2017, 08:19:25 PM
Queen gives Royal Assent to Article 50 bill

The Queen has given Royal Assent to the Brexit bill, clearing the way for Theresa May to start talks to leave the European Union.

The European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill was passed by MPs and peers on Monday.

It allows the prime minister to notify Brussels that the UK is leaving the EU, with a two year process of exit negotiations to follow.

Mrs May says she will trigger the process by the end of the month.

It is unlikely to happen next week to avoid a clash with an informal summit of EU countries.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39282280 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39282280)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 20, 2017, 05:58:01 PM
Theresa May to trigger Brexit process next Wednesday, 29 March.

A No 10 spokesman said the UK's Ambassador to the EU, Sir Tim Barrow, informed the European Council, headed by President Donald Tusk, earlier on Monday of the date that Article 50 would be triggered next Wednesday, 29 March.

Downing Street said that after Article 50 is triggered, it is expected that the remaining 27 EU member states will agree their terms and for there to be an initial response within 48 hours.

A spokesman said the government wants negotiations to start as soon as possible but added that they "fully appreciate it is right that the other 27 EU states have time to agree their position".

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39325561 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39325561)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on March 20, 2017, 07:14:53 PM

Downing Street said that after Article 50 is triggered, it is expected that the remaining 27 EU member states will agree their terms and for there to be an initial response within 48 hours.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39325561 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39325561)

Maybe I am reading it wrong as English is not my native language but did UK overlooked the fact that e.g. The Netherlands just had elections and coalition still as to be formed? For sure this will not happen with 48 hours after March 29 so personally think given deadline will not work. UK waits for some time after Brexit referendum and now puts the pressure all of a sudden on the EU?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 20, 2017, 08:22:34 PM

Downing Street said that after Article 50 is triggered, it is expected that the remaining 27 EU member states will agree their terms and for there to be an initial response within 48 hours.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39325561 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39325561)

Maybe I am reading it wrong as English is not my native language but did UK overlooked the fact that e.g. The Netherlands just had elections and coalition still as to be formed? For sure this will not happen with 48 hours after March 29 so personally think given deadline will not work. UK waits for some time after Brexit referendum and now puts the pressure all of a sudden on the EU?

Robert, they understand that. The initial response to the UK will be to confirm receipt of the UK's formal notice to quit. To express disappointment, a few platitudes about future working relationships and so on.

I would say that at least 50% of what needs to be agreed will be bureaucratic formalities and dealt with at a lower level and quite quickly. The rest will take longer and at the very top level, irrespective of who has been formally appointed to negotiate, the decisions will be made by the leaders of each Country. A near impossible task I would say.

Meanwhile it appears that the UK and Germany at least, will be signing a new defence pact asap.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 21, 2017, 06:01:34 AM
The Daily Express, putting the boot in as usual, about rumours of the UK having to pay a massive E50bn exit fee to the EU. From the aptly named veteran MP, Sir Bill Cash ! Apparently half of all Germany's debts were written off after the 2nd World War.

''Signed by countries across the world the 1953 deal provided West Germany with relief on its massive post-war debts - including money owed from First World War reparations and post-1945 loans provided by the US. The agreement, which followed months of talks, slashed West Germany’s debts in half and also tied repayments to the health of the country’s economy.''

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/781613/Brexit-news-Article-50-talks-EU-exit-fee-50billion-Sir-Bill-Cash-Germany-war-debt-WW2
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 29, 2017, 07:01:02 PM
Theresa May has triggered the official Brexit process in a letter to EU.

(http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/E017/production/_95376375_mediaitem95376374.jpg)


The UK is officially on its way out of the European Union after 44 years.

Prime Minister Theresa May has triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty starting a two year countdown to the UK's exit.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 29, 2017, 09:24:26 PM
The article 50 letter in full.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/29/article-50-brexit-letter-read-full (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/29/article-50-brexit-letter-read-full)


29 March 2017

Dear President Tusk

On 23 June last year, the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union.  As I have said before, that decision was no rejection of the values we share as fellow Europeans.  Nor was it an attempt to do harm to the European Union or any of the remaining member states.  On the contrary, the United Kingdom wants the European Union to succeed and prosper.  Instead, the referendum was a vote to restore, as we see it, our national self-determination. We are leaving the European Union, but we are not leaving Europe – and we want to remain committed partners and allies to our friends across the continent.

Earlier this month, the United Kingdom Parliament confirmed the result of the referendum by voting with clear and convincing majorities in both of its Houses for the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill.  The Bill was passed by Parliament on 13 March and it received Royal Assent from Her Majesty The Queen and became an Act of Parliament on 16 March.

Today, therefore, I am writing to give effect to the democratic decision of the people of the United Kingdom. I hereby notify the European Council in accordance with Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union of the United Kingdom’s intention to withdraw from the European Union.  In addition, in accordance with the same Article 50(2) as applied by Article 106a of the Treaty Establishing the European Atomic Energy Community, I hereby notify the European Council of the United Kingdom’s intention to withdraw from the European Atomic Energy Community. References in this letter to the European Union should therefore be taken to include a reference to the European Atomic Energy Community.

This letter sets out the approach of Her Majesty’s Government to the discussions we will have about the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union and about the deep and special partnership we hope to enjoy – as your closest friend and neighbour – with the European Union once we leave.  We believe that these objectives are in the interests not only of the United Kingdom but of the European Union and the wider world too.   

It is in the best interests of both the United Kingdom and the European Union that we should use the forthcoming process to deliver these objectives in a fair and orderly manner, and with as little disruption as possible on each side. We want to make sure that Europe remains strong and prosperous and is capable of projecting its values, leading in the world, and defending itself from security threats. We want the United Kingdom, through a new deep and special partnership with a strong European Union, to play its full part in achieving these goals. We therefore believe it is necessary to agree the terms of our future partnership alongside those of our withdrawal from the European Union.

The Government wants to approach our discussions with ambition, giving citizens and businesses in the United Kingdom and the European Union – and indeed from third countries around the world – as much certainty as possible, as early as possible.

I would like to propose some principles that may help to shape our coming discussions, but before I do so, I should update you on the process we will be undertaking at home, in the United Kingdom.

The process in the United Kingdom

As I have announced already, the Government will bring forward legislation that will repeal the Act of Parliament – the European Communities Act 1972 – that gives effect to EU law in our country.  This legislation will, wherever practical and appropriate, in effect convert the body of existing European Union law (the “acquis”) into UK law.  This means there will be certainty for UK citizens and for anybody from the European Union who does business in the United Kingdom.

The Government will consult on how we design and implement this legislation, and we will publish a White Paper tomorrow. We also intend to bring forward several other pieces of legislation that address specific issues relating to our departure from the European Union, also with a view to ensuring continuity and certainty, in particular for businesses.

We will of course continue to fulfil our responsibilities as a member state while we remain a member of the European Union, and the legislation we propose will not come into effect until we leave.

From the start and throughout the discussions, we will negotiate as one United Kingdom, taking due account of the specific interests of every nation and region of the UK as we do so.  When it comes to the return of powers back to the United Kingdom, we will consult fully on which powers should reside in Westminster and which should be devolved to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.  But it is the expectation of the Government that the outcome of this process will be a significant increase in the decision-making power of each devolved administration.

Negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union

The United Kingdom wants to agree with the European Union a deep and special partnership that takes in both economic and security cooperation.

To achieve this, we believe it is necessary to agree the terms of our future partnership alongside those of our withdrawal from the EU.

If, however, we leave the European Union without an agreement the default position is that we would have to trade on World Trade Organisation terms. In security terms a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened.

In this kind of scenario, both the United Kingdom and the European Union would of course cope with the change, but it is not the outcome that either side should seek. We must therefore work hard to avoid that outcome.

It is for these reasons that we want to be able to agree a deep and special partnership, taking in both economic and security cooperation, but it is also because we want to play our part in making sure that Europe remains strong and prosperous and able to lead in the world, projecting its values and defending itself from security threats.  And we want the United Kingdom to play its full part in realising that vision for our continent.

Proposed principles for our discussions

Looking ahead to the discussions which we will soon begin, I would like to suggest some principles that we might agree to help make sure that the process is as smooth and successful as possible.

(1) We should engage with one another constructively and respectfully, in a spirit of sincere cooperation.  Since I became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom I have listened carefully to you, to my fellow EU Heads of Government and the Presidents of the European Commission and Parliament.  That is why the United Kingdom does not seek membership of the single market: we understand and respect your position that the four freedoms of the single market are indivisible and there can be no “cherry picking”.  We also understand that there will be consequences for the UK of leaving the EU: we know that we will lose influence over the rules that affect the European economy.  We also know that UK companies will, as they trade within the EU, have to align with rules  agreed by institutions of which we are no longer a part  – just as UK companies do in other overseas markets.

(2) We should always put our citizens first.  There is obvious complexity in the discussions we are about to undertake, but we should remember that at the heart of our talks are the interests of all our citizens.  There are, for example, many citizens of the remaining member states living in the United Kingdom, and UK citizens living elsewhere in the European Union, and we should aim to strike an early agreement about their rights.

(3) We should work towards securing a comprehensive agreement.  We want to agree a deep and special partnership between the UK and the EU, taking in both economic and security cooperation. We will need to discuss how we determine a fair settlement of the UK’s rights and obligations as a departing member state, in accordance with the law and in the spirit of the United Kingdom’s continuing partnership with the EU.  But we believe it is necessary to agree the terms of our future partnership alongside those of our withdrawal from the EU.
 
(4) We should work together to minimise disruption and give as much certainty as possible.  Investors, businesses and citizens in both the UK and across the remaining 27 member states – and those from third countries around the world – want to be able to plan.  In order to avoid any cliff-edge as we move from our current relationship to our future partnership, people and businesses in both the UK and the EU would benefit from implementation periods to adjust in a smooth and orderly way to new arrangements.  It would help both sides to minimise unnecessary disruption if we agree this principle early in the process.

(5) In particular, we must pay attention to the UK’s unique relationship with the Republic of Ireland and the importance of the peace process in Northern Ireland.  The Republic of Ireland is the only EU member state with a land border with the United Kingdom.  We want to avoid a return to a hard border between our two countries, to be able to maintain the Common Travel Area between us, and to make sure that the UK’s withdrawal from the EU does not harm the Republic of Ireland.  We also have an important responsibility to make sure that nothing is done to jeopardise the peace process in Northern Ireland, and to continue to uphold the Belfast Agreement.

(6) We should begin technical talks on detailed policy areas as soon as possible, but we should prioritise the biggest challenges. Agreeing a high-level approach to the issues arising from our withdrawal will of course be an early priority.  But we also propose a bold and ambitious Free Trade Agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union. This should be of greater scope and ambition than any such agreement before it so that it covers sectors crucial to our linked economies such as financial services and network industries.  This will require detailed technical talks, but as the UK is an existing EU member state, both sides have regulatory frameworks and standards that already match.  We should therefore prioritise how we manage the evolution of our regulatory frameworks to maintain a fair and open trading environment, and how we resolve disputes.  On the scope of the partnership between us – on both economic and security matters – my officials will put forward detailed proposals for deep, broad and dynamic cooperation.

(7) We should continue to work together to advance and protect our shared European values.  Perhaps now more than ever, the world needs the liberal, democratic values of Europe.  We want to play our part to ensure that Europe remains strong and prosperous and able to lead in the world, projecting its values and defending itself from security threats.


The task before us

As I have said, the Government of the United Kingdom wants to agree a deep and special partnership between the UK and the EU, taking in both economic and security cooperation.  At a time when the growth of global trade is slowing and there are signs that protectionist instincts are on the rise in many parts of the world, Europe has a responsibility to stand up for free trade in the interest of all our citizens.

Likewise, Europe’s security is more fragile today than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Weakening our cooperation for the prosperity and protection of our citizens would be a costly mistake. The United Kingdom’s objectives for our future partnership remain those set out in my Lancaster House speech of 17 January and the subsequent White Paper published on 2 February.

We recognise that it will be a challenge to reach such a comprehensive agreement within the two-year period set out for withdrawal discussions in the Treaty. But we believe it is necessary to agree the terms of our future partnership alongside those of our withdrawal from the EU.

We start from a unique position in these discussions – close regulatory alignment, trust in one another’s institutions, and a spirit of cooperation stretching back decades.  It is for these reasons, and because the future partnership between the UK and the EU is of such importance to both sides, that I am sure it can be agreed in the time period set out by the Treaty.

The task before us is momentous but it should not be beyond us.  After all, the institutions and the leaders of the European Union have succeeded in bringing together a continent blighted by war into a union of peaceful nations, and supported the transition of dictatorships to democracy.

Together, I know we are capable of reaching an agreement about the UK’s rights and obligations as a departing member state, while establishing a deep and special partnership that contributes towards the prosperity, security and global power of our continent.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on March 29, 2017, 10:02:34 PM
Quote
Instead, the referendum was a vote to restore, as we see it, our national self-determination

Rubbish. Surely there was nothing to "restore". Without national self-determination there wouldn't have been any such referendum to start with. Without national self-determination, a peaceful break away wouldn't have been possible. The rest of the letter is a sample collection of diplomatic hypocrisy and clichés.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVXBnfGFQe0

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on March 29, 2017, 10:37:23 PM
Rubbish. Surely there was nothing to "restore". Without national self-determination there wouldn't have been any such referendum to start with. Without national self-determination, a peaceful break away wouldn't have been possible. The rest of the letter is a sample collection of diplomatic hypocrisy and clichés. (http://Rubbish. Surely there was nothing to "restore". Without national self-determination there wouldn't have been any such referendum to start with. Without national self-determination, a peaceful break away wouldn't have been possible. The rest of the letter is a sample collection of diplomatic hypocrisy and clichés.)

Without our national self-determination you would probably be speaking German now
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on March 30, 2017, 06:47:26 AM
Without our national self-determination you would probably be speaking German now
Everything depends how far you want to go back in history IMHO  ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on March 30, 2017, 07:04:44 AM
Without our national self-determination you would probably be speaking German now

This anachronistic objection has nothing to do here: nobody's denying, objecting, refusing or criticizing your national self-determination. This simplistic objection is normally the one preferred by American members when trying to defend US foreign policies. I already replied to it here (http://korat-farang.com/forum/index.php?topic=6952.msg52528#msg52528).
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on March 30, 2017, 07:19:09 AM
Without our national self-determination you would probably be speaking German now
Everything depends how far you want to go back in history IMHO  ;D ;D ;D

I would give my right arm to go back to when we were all speaking Latin  :D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 30, 2017, 02:03:41 PM
Quote
Instead, the referendum was a vote to restore, as we see it, our national self-determination
Rubbish. Surely there was nothing to "restore". Without national self-determination there wouldn't have been any such referendum to start with. Without national self-determination, a peaceful break away wouldn't have been possible. The rest of the letter is a sample collection of diplomatic hypocrisy and clichés.

Perhaps she is referring to the ending of the current situation of the supremacy of EU law or the slide towards a United States of Europe "superstate". There is no appetite for the latter in the UK.

The rest of the letter is a sample collection of diplomatic hypocrisy and clichés.

I don't see any hypocrisy in the letter but for sure it's full of diplomatic and political "speak".
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on March 30, 2017, 03:20:42 PM

[/quote]
Perhaps she is referring to the ending of the current situation of the supremacy of EU law or the slide towards a United States of Europe "superstate". There is no appetite for the latter in the UK.
[/quote]

Most people in Europe also do not like United States of Europe. Simple matter of own identity. It worked in the U.S.A. because immigrants came from different countries but did not stay together after some time. So now a mix of cultures, quite the opposite in Europe where countries exist with their own culture and identity which they value and want to keep and protect. I believe EU works well for commerce etc. but I would never want to have one Europe! Just my personal view on this.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on March 30, 2017, 04:31:49 PM

Quote
Perhaps she is referring to the ending of the current situation of the supremacy of EU law or the slide towards a United States of Europe "superstate". There is no appetite for the latter in the UK.

Most people in Europe also do not like United States of Europe. Simple matter of own identity. It worked in the U.S.A. because immigrants came from different countries but did not stay together after some time. So now a mix of cultures, quite the opposite in Europe where countries exist with their own culture and identity which they value and want to keep and protect. I believe EU works well for commerce etc. but I would never want to have one Europe! Just my personal view on this.

Preserving everybody's identity in a stronger Europe would have been possible, had it been built differently, with a bit more of grain and less hurry to expand indiscriminately and without consulting the people. We could now have a smaller but stronger Union or Federation. Alas: poor leftist politicians, daydreaming technocrats, decided and are still deciding differently. If renouncing to a unified or federate Europe is the only way to preserve national identity, that means we are in the hands of bad politicians. That also means we are condemned to being bullied also in the future by the titan of the moment (USA, China, Russia...).
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on March 31, 2017, 08:36:19 AM
THERESA MAY'S EMPTY BREXIT PROMISES (http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/theresa-mays-empty-brexit-promises)


By John Cassidy, March 29, 2017


Bexit has begun. On Tuesday evening, Theresa May, the British Prime Minister, signed a letter formally giving notice that the United Kingdom intends to leave the European Union. On Wednesday, Sir Tim Barrow, the U.K.'s Ambassador to the E.U., delivered the letter to Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council. Next up: a long set of talks about the terms of Britain's exit.

"When I sit around the negotiating table in the months ahead, I will represent every person in the United Kingdom—young and old, rich and poor, city, town, country, and all the villages and hamlets in between," May told the House of Commons on Wednesday. "It is my fierce determination to get the right deal for every single person in this country. For, as we face the opportunities ahead of us on this momentous journey, our shared values, interests, and ambitions can—and must—bring us together."

"We all want to see a Britain that is stronger than it is today," she added. "We all want a country that is fairer so that everyone has the chance to succeed. We all want a nation that is safe and secure for our children and grandchildren. We all want to live in a truly global Britain that gets out and builds relationships with old friends and new allies around the world."

May's speech was filled with so many false claims, so much cant, and so many examples of wishful thinking that it is hard to know where to begin. Her vow to represent "every person" in the U.K. is blatantly false. Last year's referendum, in which 51.9 per cent of the people who voted signalled a preference to leave the E.U., represented a victory for the old, the less-educated, and the xenophobic. The young, the college-educated, and the outward-looking all rejected, and still reject, Brexit. Many of them regard it as a willful act of self-destruction, and future historians will surely agree with them.

The upcoming exit talks, which are expected to last about two years, will cover a number of areas, including the terms on which British exporters will be allowed access to the European market, the rights of E.U. nationals living in the U.K., and whether Britain will have to pay a big departure fee. Although May is talking a brave game, her negotiating position is weak. Retaining open access to the E.U. for British goods would require the U.K. to keep paying into the E.U.'s budget and allowing labor to move freely across the English Channel. May knows that she can't sell either of these concessions to the Little Englanders in her own party or to the jingoistic tabloids that have championed a "hard Brexit"—a clean break with the E.U.

In January, May said that Britain wouldn't try to remain a formal member of the single market and instead would seek a new trade agreement with the E.U. that preserved the "frictionless" movement of goods and services. She also said that she was prepared to walk away from the negotiations if Britain didn't get what it wanted, in which case the country would crash out of the E.U. with no agreement at all. She said "no deal" was preferable to "a bad deal for Britain." That language went over well with the Daily Mail and the Sun, but it really amounted to the Prime Minister putting a gun to her head and threatening to shoot. As a negotiating ploy, it failed miserably.

The leaders of the E.U., meanwhile, want to discourage other member countries from following the U.K.'s example, and appear increasingly determined to impose a harsh deal on London. At an E.U. summit over the weekend in Italy, Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, was asked if there was any leeway to reach a friendly arrangement with Britain. "Some things are not for sale," she said, indicating that the U.K. would not receive any concessions that undermined the free movement of goods and people within the E.U.

Merkel's tough line echoed the sentiments expressed by Wolfgang Schäuble, the German Finance Minister, in a recent interview with the Financial Times. "We have no interest in punishing the U.K, but we also have no interest in putting European integration in danger over the U.K.," Schäuble said. "That is why our priority must be, with a heavy heart, to keep the rest of Europe—without the U.K.—as close together as possible."

Both sides are still staking out their positions, of course, and it will be some time before we know how the negotiations are going. Many European officials believe that May will eventually soften her stance, because leaving the E.U. without a deal would be catastrophic.

In such a situation, British goods would suddenly face tariffs and would be subjected to customs checks. Even more damaging, a lot of multinational companies that have set up operations in Britain because of its access to the E.U. would move their operations across the Channel. Arguably, this process is already beginning. A number of big banks have said that they will be shifting staff from London to Frankfurt. BMW, the German car manufacturer that now owns the iconic Mini brand, is reportedly considering whether to build a new version of the compact car in Germany rather than Oxford.

May and her fellow-Brexiteers have dismissed these developments, but despite their talk about creating a "truly global Britain" and turning the U.K. into a "global hub," they don't have a viable post-Brexit vision to offer. To quote the FT's Gideon Rachman, Britain is long past the days of empire, when it was "capable of blasting its way into global markets." And it isn't tiny Singapore either. It's a medium-sized post-industrial nation off the coast of Europe, which is its natural trading partner.

The stakes go beyond economics, of course. By going ahead with Brexit, May is endangering the very union that her party, officially the Conservative and Unionist Party, claims to represent. In last year's referendum, Scotland and Northern Ireland both voted to stay in the E.U. Once Britain leaves, Scotland may well choose to become independent and apply for membership on its own. (On Tuesday, the Scottish Parliament backed the call by Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, for a second referendum on Scottish independence.) There would also be huge questions about the future of Northern Ireland, which, at some point, could opt to join the rest of Ireland inside the E.U.

It is still possible, of course, that May will manage to cobble together a deal that preserves some of the economic advantages that Britain has built up during its four decades of membership in the E.U. It's even conceivable (although unlikely) that in two years time Parliament could reject the exit agreement, or non-agreement, forcing a general election that May might lose. For now, though, the wreckers are firmly in the ascendance, and today they are celebrating their victory.


Source (The New Yorker) (http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/theresa-mays-empty-brexit-promises)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on March 31, 2017, 08:59:23 AM
Quote
Last year's referendum, in which 51.9 per cent of the people who voted signalled a preference to leave the E.U., represented a victory for the old, the less-educated, and the xenophobic.

I wonder what category pro-Brexit members here belong to  :P
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: enrico on March 31, 2017, 12:25:35 PM
  my old man used to say,son ,if you have the cash, you can buy anything thats for sale ? and if you are selling anything and its good value,you will not have to advertise, they will be queuing up right outside your door ?? well we have done it before, and i still hope we can do it again ? bring it on  ?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 31, 2017, 12:36:49 PM
I think that article pretty much sums up the cheap, shoddy journalism that has sprung up around Brexit. All young people voted to remain and all old people voted to leave, yeah right. I was 18 when I voted to remain back in the day, my first ever vote, most of my friends voted the other way. I'm now an 'old man' and the same arguments were spewed out then, about future generations. That turned out to be a load of crap really.

You have to be British to understand why Brexit happened. It's as simple as that.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 31, 2017, 02:56:08 PM
Yes, a pretty biased article and one that misses the point.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dereklev on April 01, 2017, 03:37:26 AM
Quote
Last year's referendum, in which 51.9 per cent of the people who voted signalled a preference to leave the E.U., represented a victory for the old, the less-educated, and the xenophobic.

I wonder what category pro-Brexit members here belong to  :P

I am sure that the majority of "OLD" Brits voted to leave. We were merely correcting the error we made in 1972 when we voted to join!!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 02, 2017, 12:57:24 PM
A few additional remarks and plain language rendition of some points in the first half of Ms. T. May's "Article 50" letter (until "Proposed principles for our discussions" as I have better things to read).


Quote
On 23 June last year, the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union

She originally dictated "half the people..." but the half got lost along the way, typing oversight.


Quote
the United Kingdom wants the European Union to succeed and prosper

Quote
We are leaving the European Union, but we are not leaving Europe

"We don't want the cons anymore, but we still want the pros"


Quote
the deep and special partnership we hope to enjoy – as your closest friend and neighbour – with the European Union once we leave

"We don't want the cons anymore, but we still want the pros"


Quote
This legislation will, wherever practical and appropriate, in effect convert the body of existing European Union law (the “acquis”) into UK law.  This means there will be certainty for UK citizens and for anybody from the European Union who does business in the United Kingdom

She forgot to add "wherever practical and appropriate" also in the second sentence, but I don't doubt it was in good faith.


Quote
When it comes to the return of powers back to the United Kingdom, we will consult fully on which powers should reside in Westminster and which should be devolved to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.  But it is the expectation of the Government that the outcome of this process will be a significant increase in the decision-making power of each devolved administration

Don't come washing your dirty linen in public! Is this how you respect your "closest friend and neighbour"?


Quote
In security terms a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened

"Oooops, we hadn't thought about that. Help!"
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 02, 2017, 01:16:04 PM
I think you should stop Anton. You are becoming misogynic.

The more you continue, the more you convince me that we made the right decision in leaving. I am tired of the mocking, of the threats, of the insinuations about our intelligence.

Our histories and values are different . We don't belong, we have never been welcomed, never been respected and always treated with suspicion. We do not desire nor see the value of a federal Europe. We have a proud history of democracy unlike most European states and have a self-confidence that is not shared by many in Europe - best not call them Countries anymore. We will always be pulling in different directions.

And we will continue to offer security to Europe via NATO - 800 British troops are currently in Latvia helping to protect the EU's borders - even if various EU states want such protection on the cheap - there is a certain irony that Greece, the EU's political football and poorest member, pays it's full dues whilst richer states don't, which is shameful.

But apart from that, au revoir.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 02, 2017, 04:15:06 PM
I think you should stop Anton

Dear Caller, you give the impression of a touchy character, you don't tolerate to be "lectured" (even if it was as an answer to your own question!) so I will not "lecture" you about all the existing options in case you don't like what another forum member is writing.

One thing you cannot do is asking that member to stop expressing his opinions on a particular subject unless that is affecting you very personally somehow, which is not the case here. So think as hard as you want that I should "stop", but keep it for yourself, or complain with the administrator if that's so unbearable to you.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 02, 2017, 04:40:42 PM
Anton regarding your Reply 58 - the words pernickety and tendentious come to mind.

Caller - misogynic ? But the rest of your Reply 59 I do agree with.

Anton - without being touchy, do you mind me asking if you are Belgian or not ?
(Sorry to ask, but as you know another poster wondered about this).
It might help me understand where you are coming from sometimes. Thanks.

Brexit - 'this one will run and run' as they say !

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 02, 2017, 08:39:58 PM
you don't tolerate to be "lectured" (even if it was as an answer to your own question!) so I will not "lecture" you about all the existing options in case you don't like what another forum member is writing.

One thing you cannot do is asking that member to stop expressing his opinions on a particular subject unless that is affecting you very personally somehow, which is not the case here. So think as hard as you want that I should "stop", but keep it for yourself, or complain with the administrator if that's so unbearable to you.

Bored Anton, bored. Bored by your repetition, your ignorance of the subject matter and by your Anglophobia. And I am perfectly entitled to suggest to another member to stop because it's just the same old, same old.  It's up to you to ignore or comply, but please don't tell me I 'cannot' do it. it seems like Roger has you spot on!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 02, 2017, 09:33:55 PM
Quote
the United Kingdom wants the European Union to succeed and prosper

(http://i.imgur.com/oL1J2qT.png)

Are you really unable to comprehend that the UK (or the British PM) can wish the EU well and mean it?

Quote
We are leaving the European Union, but we are not leaving Europe

"We don't want the cons anymore, but we still want the pros"

All she is saying is that the UK is not physically moving anywhere - not to Asia, not to Africa, not to the Americas or to Australasia. Still in exactly the same place - the continent of Europe.

Quote
the deep and special partnership we hope to enjoy – as your closest friend and neighbour – with the European Union once we leave

"We don't want the cons anymore, but we still want the pros"

The neighbour part is correct (see above), the friend part is what she hope the relationship will be like post-Brexit. Friendly.

Quote
This legislation will, wherever practical and appropriate, in effect convert the body of existing European Union law (the “acquis”) into UK law.  This means there will be certainty for UK citizens and for anybody from the European Union who does business in the United Kingdom

She forgot to add "wherever practical and appropriate" also in the second sentence, but I don't doubt it was in good faith.

The law she is talking about will be a quick and effective measure to implement but also only temporary in nature. It is intended to avoid a "cliff-edge" scenario that some businesses (and to some extent EU citizens) are fearful of.

Quote
When it comes to the return of powers back to the United Kingdom, we will consult fully on which powers should reside in Westminster and which should be devolved to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.  But it is the expectation of the Government that the outcome of this process will be a significant increase in the decision-making power of each devolved administration

Don't come washing your dirty linen in public! Is this how you respect your "closest friend and neighbour"?

I don't understand your comment in relation to this point. Can you explain it, please?

Quote
In security terms a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened

"Oooops, we hadn't thought about that. Help!"

Wrong. Clearly the British government has thought about it. But, mentioning it was probably a gentle hint to the EU that the UK desires to get an agreement within the 2 year period and that it is in the interests of all sides that an agreement is reached in that time scale.   
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 03, 2017, 06:20:36 PM
Are you really unable to comprehend that the UK (or the British PM) can wish the EU well and mean it?

I'm sure many UK citizens can. Given the circumstances, however, that well wishing sentence sounds false and I can't change my mind about that no matter how hard I try.


All she is saying is that the UK is not physically moving anywhere - not to Asia, not to Africa, not to the Americas or to Australasia. Still in exactly the same place - the continent of Europe.

Honestly: did she need to specify that, if without ulterior motives? Does she really think European people are now expecting Albion to take off from the ocean in a phantasmagoric spaceship?


Quote
the deep and special partnership we hope to enjoy – as your closest friend and neighbour – with the European Union once we leave

"We don't want the cons anymore, but we still want the pros"

The neighbour part is correct (see above), the friend part is what she hope the relationship will be like post-Brexit. Friendly.

The neighbour part is pointless IMHO. Even without dragging European history in (which would only go to EU's credit), everybody can see how many neighbouring countries in the world cannot stand each other still now.

The friends part as expressed like that sounds false. Why not just stating something like: we assure since now of our unconditional friendship even after we leave ? Instead, she's already setting conditions: a deep and special partnership. In plain idiom: "our friendship doesn't come for free". You will say that I'm going behind her words: maybe I am, but have no doubt that every single word is carefully weighed and pondered in this kind of letters, over and over and over again.


Quote
This legislation will, wherever practical and appropriate, in effect convert the body of existing European Union law (the “acquis”) into UK law.  This means there will be certainty for UK citizens and for anybody from the European Union who does business in the United Kingdom

She forgot to add "wherever practical and appropriate" also in the second sentence, but I don't doubt it was in good faith.

The law she is talking about will be a quick and effective measure to implement but also only temporary in nature. It is intended to avoid a "cliff-edge" scenario that some businesses (and to some extent EU citizens) are fearful of.

My point was simply that those words "wherever practical and appropriate" are there to invalidate whatever announcement or promise goes along with them.


Quote
When it comes to the return of powers back to the United Kingdom, we will consult fully on which powers should reside in Westminster and which should be devolved to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.  But it is the expectation of the Government that the outcome of this process will be a significant increase in the decision-making power of each devolved administration

Don't come washing your dirty linen in public! Is this how you respect your "closest friend and neighbour"?

I don't understand your comment in relation to this point. Can you explain it, please?

Why should the EU care on how powers are distributed within a state that is not a member state? This paragraph was inserted only to wheedle the Scots and the Northern Irish people.


Quote
In security terms a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened

"Oooops, we hadn't thought about that. Help!"

Wrong. Clearly the British government has thought about it. But, mentioning it was probably a gentle hint to the EU that the UK desires to get an agreement within the 2 year period and that it is in the interests of all sides that an agreement is reached in that time scale.

OK I admit I was wrong on this point, thank you for clearing it Alfie.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 03, 2017, 09:14:08 PM
Are you really unable to comprehend that the UK (or the British PM) can wish the EU well and mean it?

I'm sure many UK citizens can. Given the circumstances, however, that well wishing sentence sounds false and I can't change my mind about that no matter how hard I try.

What circumstances?

All she is saying is that the UK is not physically moving anywhere - not to Asia, not to Africa, not to the Americas or to Australasia. Still in exactly the same place - the continent of Europe.

Honestly: did she need to specify that, if without ulterior motives? Does she really think European people are now expecting Albion to take off from the ocean in a phantasmagoric spaceship?

No, she didn't need to say it, but it has been something that she and her ministers have said frequently in the UK since she became PM.

Quote
the deep and special partnership we hope to enjoy – as your closest friend and neighbour – with the European Union once we leave

"We don't want the cons anymore, but we still want the pros"

The neighbour part is correct (see above), the friend part is what she hope the relationship will be like post-Brexit. Friendly.

The neighbour part is pointless IMHO. Even without dragging European history in (which would only go to EU's credit), everybody can see how many neighbouring countries in the world cannot stand each other still now.

The friends part as expressed like that sounds false. Why not just stating something like: we assure since now of our unconditional friendship even after we leave ? Instead, she's already setting conditions: a deep and special partnership. In plain idiom: "our friendship doesn't come for free". You will say that I'm going behind her words: maybe I am, but have no doubt that every single word is carefully weighed and pondered in this kind of letters, over and over and over again.

Perhaps it doesn't translate well into French, German or Italian (whatever your first language is), but "friends", "neighbours", "friendly", "neighbourly" are all positive and sound good in English.

As for your "unconditional friendship" suggestion,   :D :D :D :D :D you're joking, right? Think about what "unconditional" means and apply it to international relations. And given the "punitive" divorce settlement sentiments coming out of Brussels, it would be a very one-sided unconditional friendship and the UK would be stupid to offer it. Might as well just bend over and wait to be violated.

T. May's letter also addresses Angela Merkel's desire for clarity on how the UK sees its future relationship with the European Union.

Quote
"I think it’s actually to our advantage to have the United Kingdom define its negotiating stance in great detail and clarity and possible to also clearly outline how it sees its future relationship with the European Union."

Quote
This legislation will, wherever practical and appropriate, in effect convert the body of existing European Union law (the “acquis”) into UK law.  This means there will be certainty for UK citizens and for anybody from the European Union who does business in the United Kingdom

She forgot to add "wherever practical and appropriate" also in the second sentence, but I don't doubt it was in good faith.

The law she is talking about will be a quick and effective measure to implement but also only temporary in nature. It is intended to avoid a "cliff-edge" scenario that some businesses (and to some extent EU citizens) are fearful of.

My point was simply that those words "wherever practical and appropriate" are there to invalidate whatever announcement or promise goes along with them.

I think you are being too harsh, Anton, and in this case I think you are wrong.

Quote
When it comes to the return of powers back to the United Kingdom, we will consult fully on which powers should reside in Westminster and which should be devolved to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.  But it is the expectation of the Government that the outcome of this process will be a significant increase in the decision-making power of each devolved administration

Don't come washing your dirty linen in public! Is this how you respect your "closest friend and neighbour"?

I don't understand your comment in relation to this point. Can you explain it, please?

Why should the EU care on how powers are distributed within a state that is not a member state? This paragraph was inserted only to wheedle the Scots and the Northern Irish people.

I think the EU most certainly does care about the UK post Brexit. 

Quote
European leaders will insist that the UK rules out tax dumping as part of any trade deal struck during Brexit negotiations, it emerged today.

Quote
Donald Tusk, the European Council president, also warned this morning that a deal must “ensure a level playing field in terms of competition and state aid, and must encompass safeguards against unfair competitive advantages through, inter alia, fiscal, social and environmental dumping”.

And with regard to the regions in the UK, I think it might be because of Nicola Sturgeon's visits to EU leaders and her wish for Scotland to breakaway from the UK and also with regard to Northern Ireland.

Quote
Nicola Sturgeon in Brussels to press case for keeping Scotland in EU

First minister to meet EC president Juncker, saying ‘everything must be on the table to protect Scotland’s place in Europe’

Nicola Sturgeon is to hold talks with the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, in Brussels as she attempts to keep Scotland in the European Union.

The first minister is also expected to meet the European parliament president, Martin Schulz, and Guy Verhofstadt, the former Belgian prime minister and leader of the Liberal group at the European parliament.

Quote
"We don't want to have hard borders between Northern Ireland and the Republic," said Jean-Claude Juncker.

"We want to have the Good Friday agreement not being put under risks, and we want land borders being as open as possible," Mr Juncker said.

Quote
Mr Tusk said: "We will seek flexible and creative solutions aiming at avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. It is of crucial importance to support the peace process in Northern Ireland."
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on April 04, 2017, 02:00:01 PM
Brexit, all true
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 06, 2017, 05:42:35 PM
Interview with Charles Tannock (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Tannock), not exactly the last come on European politics although I'm sure some forum members will disagree. From yesterday's 12h GMT news report on TV5 Monde. In French but here are some highlights:

- 05:17 He thinks that it is very understandable that all 27 (not only Germany) insist to settle the breakaway matter before starting talks on a new commercial treaty, contrary to what Ms. May's government is pushing for.

- 06:26 He is "very angry" (beaucoup faché) at Mr. Nigel Farage for adopting the tough attitude towards other Members of European Parliament: "We need charm, we need good manners, we need to remain good friends with the 27".

- 06:40 He reiterates his opposition to Brexit: "Brexit is a selfish and destructive move. Both the EU and the UK will weaken as a consequence, to Mr. Putin's great delight"

- 07:00 He hopes breakaway negotiations will end well, but he reckons there's no guarantee they will.

- 07:33 He is "totally against" (complètement contre) the British government attempt at mixing up the security question with the commercial question. It is unacceptable to use the security question as a bartering good. Putting both matters together in the same paragraph in the "Article 50" letter was a mistake. Fight against organized crime and terrorism must remain top priority no matter what. Before the Brexit referendum, nobody campaigned for a slackening of security measures liable to endanger innocent citizens' lives.

Follow this link if interested, start at 3:50 :

http://information.tv5monde.com/archives/les-jt/monde?date=2017-04-05T12%3A00Z
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 06, 2017, 06:26:46 PM
Anton - Charles Tannock might possibly be a classic 'Remainer' and he has a vested interest - at some stage he is going to lose his fat salary, benefits and lifestyle as an MEP. Good !

The important developments in the Brexit process are happening behind the scenes. Much of the comment we see, from bruised Folks here and there, is just grinding of the axe.

Thanks for the info. and link but for myself, I don't particularly care what Charles T thinks.
Let's just get on with it and IMO much will fall into place.

Nil desperandum.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 06, 2017, 10:30:42 PM
The important developments in the Brexit process are happening behind the scenes. Much of the comment we see, from bruised Folks here and there, is just grinding of the axe.

I agree. Whoever this chap is, he is of no consequence. The frothing of the mouth via the European parliament is unedifying and just makes me more determined to leave behind such a shoddy cesspit.

Diplomacy via the key players is what will count, not the pitbulls put up for public display.

However, I thought this a calm and dignified response to one of the pitbulls, who like many senior EU MEP's, seems to be revelling in being obnoxious for the sake of it.

https://www.facebook.com/britu2/videos/1429320530422988/

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 06, 2017, 11:49:09 PM
Are you really unable to comprehend that the UK (or the British PM) can wish the EU well and mean it?

I'm sure many UK citizens can. Given the circumstances, however, that well wishing sentence sounds false and I can't change my mind about that no matter how hard I try.

What circumstances?

You know Alfie. The hate campaign, the fact that, if many British people sincerely wish well to the EU, many others really hope to see it tumble down (we have evidence even in this forum I think). I guess Mr. Farage answered your question with his insulting attitude, anyway.


Honestly: did she need to specify that, if without ulterior motives? Does she really think European people are now expecting Albion to take off from the ocean in a phantasmagoric spaceship?

No, she didn't need to say it, but it has been something that she and her ministers have said frequently in the UK since she became PM.

Well, so? This is an official letter to the President of the European Council, not a press release to British media.


The friends part as expressed like that sounds false. Why not just stating something like: we assure since now of our unconditional friendship even after we leave ? Instead, she's already setting conditions: a deep and special partnership. In plain idiom: "our friendship doesn't come for free". You will say that I'm going behind her words: maybe I am, but have no doubt that every single word is carefully weighed and pondered in this kind of letters, over and over and over again.

As for your "unconditional friendship" suggestion,   :D :D :D :D :D you're joking, right? Think about what "unconditional" means and apply it to international relations.

Replace "unconditional" with "sincere", the point remains. She's offering nothing but a selfish friendship.


And given the "punitive" divorce settlement sentiments coming out of Brussels, it would be a very one-sided unconditional friendship and the UK would be stupid to offer it. Might as well just bend over and wait to be violated.

Senior British politicians with proven EU experience deem that that money is due.


Why should the EU care on how powers are distributed within a state that is not a member state? This paragraph was inserted only to wheedle the Scots and the Northern Irish people.

I think the EU most certainly does care about the UK post Brexit. 

Quote
European leaders will insist that the UK rules out tax dumping as part of any trade deal struck during Brexit negotiations, it emerged today.

Quote
Donald Tusk, the European Council president, also warned this morning that a deal must "ensure a level playing field in terms of competition and state aid, and must encompass safeguards against unfair competitive advantages through, inter alia, fiscal, social and environmental dumping".

I wrote clearly: "on how powers are distributed". Neither quote above applies.


And with regard to the regions in the UK, I think it might be because of Nicola Sturgeon's visits to EU leaders and her wish for Scotland to breakaway from the UK and also with regard to Northern Ireland.

Quote
Nicola Sturgeon in Brussels to press case for keeping Scotland in EU

First minister to meet EC president Juncker, saying ‘everything must be on the table to protect Scotland’s place in Europe’

Nicola Sturgeon is to hold talks with the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, in Brussels as she attempts to keep Scotland in the European Union.

The first minister is also expected to meet the European parliament president, Martin Schulz, and Guy Verhofstadt, the former Belgian prime minister and leader of the Liberal group at the European parliament.

I think you are confirming my point here: that paragraph in the "Article 50" letter was inserted to wheedle the Scots. And even if they received Sturgeon, nothing proves European leaders wish to meddle on how powers will be distributed in post-Brexit UK.


Quote
"We don't want to have hard borders between Northern Ireland and the Republic," said Jean-Claude Juncker.

"We want to have the Good Friday agreement not being put under risks, and we want land borders being as open as possible," Mr Juncker said.

Quote
Mr Tusk said: "We will seek flexible and creative solutions aiming at avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. It is of crucial importance to support the peace process in Northern Ireland."

They clearly worry about the border situation between member State Ireland and notoriously troubled Northern Ireland, not about distribution of powers in post-Brexit UK.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 07, 2017, 06:11:08 AM
Anton there is no 'hate campaign' against the EU (maybe Farage apart), even though I and millions more, think the EU is a mess in many many ways and will be very glad when the UK is out.

It's not unfriendly to leave the EU in accordance with the rights enshrined in the Treaties that allow us to do so.

It is quite possible to feel sincere friendship to our previous Partners in the EU after leaving the EU. As for selfish, if you think the 27 EU nations do not pursue their own interests inside the EU in a selfish way then I suggest you are wrong.

As for the punitive divorce settlements - Senior British politicians with proven EU experience deem that that money is NOT due. I mean - so what ?
Furthermore, I have read that the UK's contribution to EU assets over the last 40 years which needs to be reimbursed, MORE than outweighs the contrived 'divorce settlement'.

You really don't like UK's brexit do you ? Don't worry, Belgium will remain our Friend.




Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 07, 2017, 09:20:38 AM
Interview with Denis Macshane (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denis_MacShane), another one experienced in European politics. From yesterday's 12h GMT news report on TV5 Monde. In French but here are some highlights (interviewee pronunciation not always clear, I try my best):

- 10:00 The real problem is the tug-of-war between Ms. May and the Brexit hardliners in her group, whose bursting reaction to the Gibraltar question, for example, touches to farce (ça devient presque comique).

- 11:02 The problem is internal to our country. Albeit a little shocked and regretful by our decision to leave, other EU members accept it. All they ask for is that we calmly fulfill our financial obligations now, even if it is an "expensive bill" to use Jean-Paul Juncker's words. But in our country, all of the anti-European right wing press, the conservatives, they call to arms (ils montent aux créneaux), they say: "No no no! It's the Europeans who should pay us for leaving Europe" (he chuckles)

- 11:53 (he chuckles again at the question: "Can the UK afford to pay, should the UK pay what demanded by the EU?") Absolutely, let's be serious. Small or big the final amount, staggered along several years, it's not a great part of the budget. We will stop our contributions to the EU budget anyway. It is all feasible if Ms. May manages to lead towards a reasonable Brexit, rather than surrendering to the anti-EU hard wing.

- 12:42 In last year's referendum, 37% of the whole UK electorate voted for exiting. The majority of Constitutions require 40, 50, 60% for such an important constitutional change. Now we see the cost: factories will close, a good part of the City's wealth will be transferred, bankers ventilate about moving somewhere else, it's not very reassuring, there's an ugly rise in xenophobia in our country. I'm not saying there will be a total change from one day to the next, but as time goes by I believe there will be changes in my country.

- 13:40 Political Brexit, or rescission of the treaty, is almost unavoidable by now; but once that done, once gotten rid of all administrative bonds, I hope the English people will then become reasonable, because we have more than one nationalism on the rise in our country: a new English nationalism, a Scottish one, and especially in Ireland.

Follow this link if interested, start at 9:45 :

http://information.tv5monde.com/archives/les-jt/monde?date=2017-04-06T12%3A00Z
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 07, 2017, 09:22:18 AM
Anton,
1.There was no hate campaign against the EU by Theresa May or the British government.
2. I see the EU as being very selfish. Its friendship is certainly conditional (much like the USA).
3. Why would the EU "worry" about having a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (an EU state and a non-EU territory)? Are there no other hard borders between the EU and other countries?
4. Why are you so against Brexit. Are you British?

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dereklev on April 07, 2017, 09:36:45 AM
Anton,
1.There was no hate campaign against the EU by Theresa May or the British government.
2. I see the EU as being very selfish. Its friendship is certainly conditional (much like the USA).
3. Why would the EU "worry" about having a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (an EU state and a non-EU territory)? Are there no other hard borders between the EU and other countries?
4. Why are you so against Brexit. Are you British?

555 :D

Maybe he is a "Cuckoo Clock" and as such should not comment on EU matters.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 07, 2017, 09:50:12 AM
Anton,
4. Why are you so against Brexit. Are you British?

555 :D

Maybe he is a "Cuckoo Clock" and as such should not comment on EU matters.

Well, that would explain his multiple translations from Italian (as well as the French language bit), but I'm still not sure why a Swiss person would be so against Brexit. It's not like Switzerland is a full member of the EU like Britain is.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 07, 2017, 11:44:13 AM
1.There was no hate campaign against the EU by Theresa May or the British government.
2. I see the EU as being very selfish. Its friendship is certainly conditional (much like the USA).
3. Why would the EU "worry" about having a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (an EU state and a non-EU territory)? Are there no other hard borders between the EU and other countries?

Thank you Alfie. I will not reply point by point anymore. I maintain my rendition of the "Article 50" letter as given in reply no. 58, except for the last point that I have already retracted (about security). I think I was right on the mark in all other points, namely in both lines I rendered as "We don't want the cons anymore, but we still want the pros".
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 07, 2017, 11:54:57 AM
Interview with Denis Macshane (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denis_MacShane), another one experienced in European politics. From yesterday's 12h GMT news report on TV5 Monde. In French but here are some highlights (interviewee pronunciation not always clear, I try my best):

Anton, seriously, there is little point in churning out interviews with biased - not to say corrupt in this case - politicians and airing their anti-brexit stance. For each of these, you can get a different view from any number of equally insignificant pro-brexit players.

The British people had months of this double speak to put up with. To try and weigh up the facts alongside all of the dross. The decision was made.

It's evident to me, based on the new project fear being waged by the EU, that even now, some simply don't get the fact that the vote has to be respected and that the EU can still 'turn' the decision. They can't.

You clearly belong in the camp that regards the decision as unacceptable and it seems to mme you feel genuine anger about it, along with others like Guy Verhofstadt, who has chosen to hurl scorn and derision at those that voted to leave and to me, all this does, as stated time and again, is to reinforce my view that we made the right decision. We are wanted only for our financial contribution and our diplomatic and military clout. Apart from that we have been expected to sit at the back of the class, keep quiet and don't rock the boat by arrogant and pompous anti-British eu politicians like the Belgium mentioned above. And that's why we're leaving.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 07, 2017, 12:01:27 PM
should not comment on EU matters

You too, Derek? As long as he/she doesn't violates forum rules, what a member "should" or "should not" comment about is only up to him/herself, regardless of his/her nationality, origin, religion, race, income, gender, and so on and so forth.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dereklev on April 07, 2017, 12:51:46 PM
Anton,
4. Why are you so against Brexit. Are you British?

555 :D

Maybe he is a "Cuckoo Clock" and as such should not comment on EU matters.

Well, that would explain his multiple translations from Italian (as well as the French language bit), but I'm still not sure why a Swiss person would be so against Brexit. It's not like Switzerland is a full member of the EU like Britain is.

Or maybe he is Belgian and well educated but with a total lack of understanding of Britain and the British!!

I think the video caller posted of Steven Woolfe summed up the difference between "us and them".

http://www.facebook.com/britu2/videos/1429320530422988/

"Fellow MEPs that talk about freedom, are very forgetful. The EU talks about Europe being free. That freedom came at a huge cost for Britain in the blood & sacrifice of millions - not the EU project."
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on April 07, 2017, 04:18:11 PM
Why do you accuse Anton of having no understanding of the British? I am British and i think the decision is folly and a massive mistake by Cameron. The Tory manifesto is to remain in the single market yet May utters the inane comment that no deal is better than a bad deal. I understand why a lot of people voted leave but imo this was a success for lies and propaganda.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 07, 2017, 11:06:48 PM
I understand why a lot of people voted leave but imo this was a success for lies and propaganda.

I think you have nailed it there.

Although obviously I can't agree that it was a success for lies and propaganda. Most folk I know are more than capable of making up their own minds and weeding out the tosh. Friends and relatives on both sides had to do the same and like you, irrespective of how they voted, get why a lot of people voted to leave.

I don't think Anton does.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 08, 2017, 02:16:03 PM
Friends and relatives on both sides had to do the same and like you, irrespective of how they voted, get why a lot of people voted to leave.

I don't think Anton does.

You are puffing yourself up, Caller: that "why" is so petty in the general geopolitical context that even a fool would see (and pity) it.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 08, 2017, 06:03:54 PM
Perhaps she is referring to the ending of the current situation of the supremacy of EU law or the slide towards a United States of Europe "superstate". There is no appetite for the latter in the UK.

Had we more "Churchills" than "Camerons" around today, the EU would work greatly.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dam12641 on April 08, 2017, 06:19:05 PM
"We must build a kind of United States of Europe" - Churchill.

Ah, that old chestnut. Often dragged out, and nearly always out of context.
Even the slightest bit of research should reveal that if you were suggesting that Britain is part of Europe, Winston would think you insane.
Winston saw the free world consisting of three parts: the US, the British Empire and western Europe.

And he is still right - only because 2 out of 3 ain't bad.
The rest of western Europe doesn't understand the responsibilities involved in being part of 'the Free world'.
That is why they do not and will never understand Brexit.
That's ok, leave them to their socialist fantasies.
And when they have screwed it all up (again) they will still expect the real free world to come to their rescue (again).
Nor will they ever show any gratitude (again).

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 08, 2017, 06:29:25 PM
''You are puffing yourself up, Caller: that "why" is so petty in the general geopolitical context that even a fool would see (and pity) it.''

Anton - that criticism of Caller's post is extremely unfair. I read the same post and thought it was a well balanced comment.

No need to keep going on about the Brexit campaign - neither side came out of the campaign with much credit.

You quote Winston Churchill - the whole point is that the UK could not get the 'kind' of U.S.E. that we wanted. Even though we asked. Repeatedly.
I don't think Churchill was advocating 'ever closer union', do you ?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 08, 2017, 09:35:49 PM
Winston saw the free world consisting of three parts: the US, the British Empire and western Europe.

That was in 1946. What if he was around today? Would he support the UK joining with the US rather than the "socialists"? Maybe. My point was simply that the EU would work better than it does with serious politicians around, be it with or without the UK in it.

The rest of western Europe doesn't understand the responsibilities involved in being part of 'the Free world'.

I don't know what you mean by "free world". Freedom is an abstract concept subject to political exploiting. The USA, for example, is not a "free" country for me, I don't know about you. To me what counts is peace and stability. In this sense, also that Mr. Woolfe in Caller's video got it all wrong IMHO.

From what I see, Brexit is not serving peace and stability in Europe. Who is shunning responsibilities here? Days after the breakaway letter, words of war are out already (about Gibraltar). Laughable for the moment, but later? And what if others choose to follow the example, now that populists are on the rise everywhere? Back in no time to what Churchill called the Dark Ages. Remember the Balkans. At that point, stay out of it if you can!

And when they have screwed it all up (again) they will still expect the real free world to come to their rescue (again).

Right: as if you never screwed anything up, you "real free world".
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 08, 2017, 09:49:51 PM
That's it Anton.
Your Devil is in the detail is it not ?
Quoting you - 'general geopolitical context that even a fool would see (and pity) it.'
Why not explain that ? Obfuscation IMO.

Please answer my question - re. Churchill and the comment you try to exploit.
Did Churchill want ever closer union ?

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dereklev on April 08, 2017, 09:54:45 PM
Perhaps she is referring to the ending of the current situation of the supremacy of EU law or the slide towards a United States of Europe "superstate". There is no appetite for the latter in the UK.

Had we more "Churchills" than "Camerons" around today, the EU would work greatly.

Winston was an immense War Time leader but was very quickly rejected by the British electorate after the war.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 09, 2017, 11:39:42 AM
You are puffing yourself up, Caller: that "why" is so petty in the general geopolitical context that even a fool would see (and pity) it.

Anton, I think you are either blinkered to the reasons behind Brexit, or regard them as petty and your post gives the reason why. You can only see it in one dimension and God help anyone who gets in the way of the project.

For me, there is no pride and only shame in belonging to an organisation that tear gasses it's own pensioners when protesting about 25% cuts to their living standards, whose own policies promote and tolerate extreme youth employment in the southern states, putting their futures at risk and festering discontent, especially about the north / south divide, that expects others to protect them still - and these are just the ones I can be bothered to relay at the moment and all for what? Imagine any of that happening in the UK and their would be riots. From the EU? Not a whimper, apart from more of the same. It's shameful.

Before lambasting others for their opinions, give a bit more thought to how you relay that and in particular the holier than thou approach.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 09, 2017, 05:45:38 PM
Friends and relatives on both sides had to do the same and like you, irrespective of how they voted, get why a lot of people voted to leave.

I don't think Anton does.

You are puffing yourself up, Caller: that "why" is so petty in the general geopolitical context that even a fool would see (and pity) it.

Anton, in your opinion, what is the "why"?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 09, 2017, 05:47:27 PM
Perhaps she is referring to the ending of the current situation of the supremacy of EU law or the slide towards a United States of Europe "superstate". There is no appetite for the latter in the UK.

Had we more "Churchills" than "Camerons" around today, the EU would work greatly.

As Churchill died over 50 years ago, I will make my earlier post clearer for you. "There is no appetite for the latter in the UK" now.   ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 09, 2017, 05:52:15 PM
From what I see, Brexit is not serving peace and stability in Europe. Who is shunning responsibilities here? Days after the breakaway letter, words of war are out already (about Gibraltar). Laughable for the moment, but later? And what if others choose to follow the example, now that populists are on the rise everywhere? Back in no time to what Churchill called the Dark Ages. Remember the Balkans. At that point, stay out of it if you can!

If the countries of the EU cannot survive peacefully together without the UK, surely it means the whole EU project is a failure.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 09, 2017, 07:20:15 PM
Just MHO. But. I think the 'lost 27' have mislaid their nerve.
The EU didn't help us stay in the EU but they are frightened to be on their own.
So let's get out. The UK will be OK. So will Europe.
But the Europeans are 'frit'. 'Frit'. And 'Frit' !
The EU is a total mess. Run by Jobsworths 'par excellence'.

Anton is obdurate about all of this but Anton - have some faith in your own Nation.
You'll be OK.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on April 09, 2017, 08:39:46 PM
Alfie,
I think you meant over 50 years ago

As Churchill died over 5 years ago,  (http://As Churchill died over 5 years ago,)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 09, 2017, 09:49:48 PM
Alfie,
I think you meant over 50 years ago

As Churchill died over 5 years ago,  (http://As Churchill died over 5 years ago,)

Yes, I did, Thanks, Jivvy. I thought I had typed 50 but obviously not.

Just goes to show what a big difference a zero can make. :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 10, 2017, 05:37:52 PM
Anton, in your opinion, what is the "why"?

The same everybody is complaining about: they felt they were suffering insult added to injury. The insult of being bossed around by those in Bruxelles (as they thought) added to the injury of having to pay for it even dearer than others do (as they thought). Same refrain I hear in my country and from my French and Italian friends all the time. Many Germans are unhappy, too: they feel they are the ones to bear all the burden. Hardly surprising. Welcome to community life!

Other members are trying to hold out, at least until now. And not "without a whimper" as Caller says. There are so many protests everywhere. Yet, they try holding on to this project, this dream; they try considering themselves first and foremost as European - not that it comes easy to anybody, stop thinking yourself as so much different. Maybe other members can see better than you the priceless stakes represented by a war-free Europe after centuries of destructive wars (almost always with your active participation). But what count to you are your "appetites", the need to show "who is the boss" to transitory characters such as Juncker or Merkel, and preventing a Mr. Tannock to get his MEP wages. Enough to go ahead and jeopardise the whole fragile European project. The ruthless Anglo-Saxons. The "boxing and bullying" Englishmen (Thackeray). The Papist slayers.

I know what you will object now: that down below we are all the same, we all care only for our respective "appetites" the same way. I would disagree: not exactly the same way. But I will not enter into that.

Now that you're out, let's see if you can come up with a good alternative proposal to build a Europe according to your appetites, and which is tempting also to the others. Show us you can do better. Before sending warships out, if possible. We are not your enemies, your real enemies are our enemies too.


If the countries of the EU cannot survive peacefully together without the UK, surely it means the whole EU project is a failure.

That's not exactly what I wrote. What if there will be no more EU?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 10, 2017, 05:48:20 PM
Anton, in your opinion, what is the "why"?

The same everybody is complaining about: they felt they were suffering insult added to injury. The insult of being bossed around by those in Bruxelles (as they thought) added to the injury of having to pay for it even dearer than others do (as they thought). Same refrain I hear in my country and from my French and Italian friends all the time. Many Germans are unhappy, too: they feel they are the ones to bear all the burden. Hardly surprising. Welcome to community life!

Other members are trying to hold out, at least until now. And not "without a whimper" as Caller says. There are so many protests everywhere. Yet, they try holding on to this project, this dream; they try considering themselves first and foremost as European - not that it comes easy to anybody, stop thinking yourself as so much different. Maybe other members can see better than you the priceless stakes represented by a war-free Europe after centuries of destructive wars (almost always with your active participation). But what count to you are your "appetites", the need to show "who is the boss" to transitory characters such as Juncker or Merkel, and preventing a Mr. Tannock to get his MEP wages. Enough to go ahead and jeopardise the whole fragile European project. The ruthless Anglo-Saxons. The "boxing and bullying" Englishmen (Thackeray). The Papist slayers.

I know what you will object now: that down below we are all the same, we all care only for our respective "appetites" the same way. I would disagree: not exactly the same way. But I will not enter into that.

Now that you're out, let's see if you can come up with a good alternative proposal to build a Europe according to your appetites, and which is tempting also to the others. Show us you can do better. Before sending warships out, if possible. We are not your enemies, your real enemies are our enemies too.


If the countries of the EU cannot survive peacefully together without the UK, surely it means the whole EU project is a failure.

That's not exactly what I wrote. What if there will be no more EU?

If there are so many people complaining and protesting about the "project", there must be something wrong with the "project", and/or the way it is being managed. It's surprising to see you think the EU is "fragile". Really, if it is so fragile, put it out of its misery. Manage a dignified end to it but end it. What if there will be no more EU? So what? No real loss to the world. It is a manufactured institution and not very old. The world, and Europe, will survive without it.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 10, 2017, 09:51:53 PM
Other members are trying to hold out, at least until now. And not "without a whimper" as Caller says. There are so many protests everywhere. Yet, they try holding on to this project, this dream; they try considering themselves first and foremost as European

Can you clarify who 'they' are?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 10, 2017, 10:03:23 PM
If there are so many people complaining and protesting about the "project", there must be something wrong with the "project", and/or the way it is being managed. It's surprising to see you think the EU is "fragile"

I'm the first one admitting that it's not being managed as it should. It's not surprising that I call it "fragile", I've been saying something like that since the start, see reply no. 51. That doesn't mean it's a terminally ill patient yet. And Brexit remains a vile move IMHO.

What if there will be no more EU? So what? No real loss to the world. It is a manufactured institution and not very old. The world, and Europe, will survive without it.

So many presumptions, how do you know what would Europe become without it?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 10, 2017, 10:33:16 PM
And Brexit remains a vile move IMHO.

Vile? What a ridiculous thing to say. Are you trying to toll this thread now? There was a referendum. The result was to leave the EU. 

What if there will be no more EU? So what? No real loss to the world. It is a manufactured institution and not very old. The world, and Europe, will survive without it.

So many presumptions, how do you know what would Europe become without it?

No more than you know what it will be like with it but as the EU is less than 10 years old and the continent of Europe is considerably older, I don't think a well managed ending to the EU will lead to any great world or European catastrophe.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 10, 2017, 10:37:46 PM
Other members are trying to hold out, at least until now. And not "without a whimper" as Caller says. There are so many protests everywhere. Yet, they try holding on to this project, this dream; they try considering themselves first and foremost as European

Can you clarify who 'they' are?

I didn't post that comment, caller.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pompui on April 10, 2017, 11:55:45 PM
This is getting good. I don't watch soap operas anymore, instead I log onto KF.com to get my daily fix of Re:Brexit.  ;) :D ;D >:( :( :o 8) ??? :-\ :'( ::)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 11, 2017, 12:31:54 AM
And Brexit remains a vile move IMHO.

Vile? What a ridiculous thing to say. Are you trying to toll this thread now? There was a referendum. The result was to leave the EU. 

I'm not trying to toll troll anything down. Your Parliament isn't legally bound by referendum results. Let alone in a case like this (sorry, I will not explain what I mean by "a case like this"). The result was a vile ugly populist triumph.

So many presumptions, how do you know what would Europe become without it?

No more than you know what it will be like with it but as the EU is less than 10 years old and the continent of Europe is considerably older, I don't think a well managed ending to the EU will lead to any great world or European catastrophe.

Nobody's talking about great world catastrophes. As to Europe, facts we know for sure are: (1) that Europe had already been a catastrophe several times in the past, up to recently before the Treaty of Rome, but (2) never after the Treaty of Rome - except in the Balkans, in circumstances that should only serve as a loud warning call today.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 11, 2017, 12:56:15 AM
Your Parliament isn't legally bound by referendum results. Let alone in a case like this (sorry, I will not explain what I mean by "a case like this").

Legally bound it might not be, but duty bound it most certainly is. To have a referendum and then to ignore the result would be a catastrophe for the UK - but it just would not happen. The vote would be respected whatever the outcome. However, I understand that other EU countries might not have the same standards as the UK.

The result was a vile populist triumph.

Perhaps you can explain exactly what you mean by "populist". That leaving the EU was a more popular vote than staying in the EU?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 11, 2017, 12:57:06 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0buD0s5ULU
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 11, 2017, 06:45:08 AM
Sorry Guys - re. 'toll' do you both mean 'troll'. Just asking. No offence. Not used to seeing the word toll used in a context I see here.

Populism - seems to be a word used commonly now implying some sort of slur or insult. But is it ? My Dictionary defines populism as below :-

1.
the political philosophy of the People's party.
2.
(lowercase) any of various, often antiestablishment or anti-intellectual political movements or philosophies that offer unorthodox solutions or policies and appeal to the common person rather than according with traditional party or partisan ideologies.
3.
(lowercase) grass-roots democracy; working-class activism; egalitarianism.
4.
(lowercase) representation or extolling of the common person, the working class, the underdog, etc.

So populism can be 'grass roots democracy' which indeed, IMO, is what we have just had in the Brexit referendum. So populism ain't necessarily wrong.
In fact it can be good. As was the Referendum IMO and the result endorsing Brexit.

Anton you write, ''The result was a vile populist triumph''. Using the 'V' word is quite inappropriate in this context.

What you have seen is democracy at work in a different way. You may not like the result but then, you were outvoted I'm afraid.

Pompui - nice one. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 11, 2017, 11:07:17 AM
Sorry Guys - re. 'toll' do you both mean 'troll'. Just asking. No offence. Not used to seeing the word toll used in a context I see here.

Yes. Another typo. Sorry about that.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 11, 2017, 02:10:10 PM
OK Alfie thanks. Just wondered if I was missing something.


 

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 11, 2017, 02:14:38 PM
Other members are trying to hold out, at least until now. And not "without a whimper" as Caller says. There are so many protests everywhere. Yet, they try holding on to this project, this dream; they try considering themselves first and foremost as European

Can you clarify who 'they' are?

I didn't post that comment, caller.

Sorry Alfie, that was my poor 'quoting' skills. I'll ask it again as I'm still interested.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 11, 2017, 02:17:46 PM
Other members are trying to hold out, at least until now. And not "without a whimper" as Caller says. There are so many protests everywhere. Yet, they try holding on to this project, this dream; they try considering themselves first and foremost as European

Who is 'they' Anton, I'm still interested.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 11, 2017, 06:28:58 PM
Sorry Guys - re. 'toll' do you both mean 'troll'. Just asking. No offence. Not used to seeing the word toll used in a context I see here.

Yes. Another typo. Sorry about that.

I thought it was an English expression yet unknown to me, but I guessed the meaning anyway  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 11, 2017, 06:40:53 PM
To have a referendum and then to ignore the result would be a catastrophe for the UK

I really don't think so.

I understand that other EU countries might not have the same standards as the UK

Don't get carried away, Alfie. If you think that the true and only essence of democracy lies in following strictly the law of numbers, you're wrong.

Perhaps you can explain exactly what you mean by "populist"

The term populism is on all dictionaries, here I mean it in a derogatory way of course.

That leaving the EU was a more popular vote than staying in the EU?

Let's say a more "basic instinct" vote.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 11, 2017, 07:02:34 PM
To have a referendum and then to ignore the result would be a catastrophe for the UK

I really don't think so.

You really need to explain why you don't think so. The basic tenet of our democracy is adhering to the outcome of a democratic vote. Why do you think it would be acceptable to ignore this one and what do you believe the consequence of ignoring the outcome would have been?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 11, 2017, 07:31:47 PM
To have a referendum and then to ignore the result would be a catastrophe for the UK

I really don't think so.

You really need to explain why you don't think so.

If we can't express catastrophic fears over Europe, than why express them over the UK? It all depends what you mean by "catastrophe", I guess.

The basic tenet of our democracy is adhering to the outcome of a democratic vote

Caller what democratic vote are you talking about? By your own admission in the "hypocrisy of the day" discussion:

As Roger has said, there was misinformation everywhere

Do you know that's enough to make it a non-democratic vote? Don't worry, I won't lecture you any further over democracy, you are the experts I know.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on April 11, 2017, 08:24:42 PM
Quote
Don't worry, I won't lecture you any further over democracy, you are the experts I know.

What gives a you the right to make such an arrogant self opinionated statement, you continually show your dislike for the UK and all that it stands for.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 11, 2017, 08:59:57 PM
What gives a you the right to make such an arrogant self opinionated statement

Apologies Jivvy, it might be because I resent as arrogant and self-opinionated some of the pro-Brexit statements here. I'll try to do better now.

you continually show your dislike for the UK and all that it stands for

That is not true. Here, I'm just trying to motivate my counter-Brexit arguments. Elsewhere, where am I showing such dislike?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 11, 2017, 09:23:13 PM
Anton, it's OK to be against Brexit but there's no point getting nasty about it (you or EU officials). It's going to happen, as it should following the referendum. Just get used to it.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 11, 2017, 09:33:33 PM
Anton, it's OK to be against Brexit but there's no point getting nasty about it (you or EU officials). It's going to happen, as it should following the referendum. Just get used to it.

Alfie, I think we all got used to it already. It's all this bragging about "democracy" that sounds so out of tune to me now. Another one of those abstract concepts that are politically exploited and have lost any meaning in today's world. Amen
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 11, 2017, 09:40:55 PM
In your opinion Anton.

Which really sums up what this thread has been about.


Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 11, 2017, 10:02:28 PM
Anton, it's OK to be against Brexit but there's no point getting nasty about it (you or EU officials). It's going to happen, as it should following the referendum. Just get used to it.

Alfie, I think we all got used to it already. It's all this bragging about "democracy" that sounds so out of tune to me now. Another one of those abstract concepts that are politically exploited and have lost any meaning in today's world. Amen

Bragging about democracy? It seems to me that you would prefer to see democracy corrupted by going against the result of the referendum. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 14, 2017, 06:05:15 PM
Post-Brexit trade has been a hotly debated topic. This article gives an interesting view of some of the possibilities for the UK. It's quite long but it's worth a read.

Brexit and International Trade (http://www.lawyersforbritain.org/int-trade.shtml)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 19, 2017, 02:47:13 PM
If the General Election goes to plan on June 8th, it is likely that the Tory Govt. will be re-elected with an increased majority. Maybe the Lib Dems will attract a lot of anti-Brexit votes, but IMO that won't be enough to influence the result. Labour look set for a beating and UKIP may prove to be a spent force. I'm wondering if the SNP may also fall back as Nicola Sturgeon has overplayed her hand in pushing for another Independence referendum.

Well played Mrs May ! So let's get on with Brexit. The UK must stand up to the wilder voices in the EU. And the EU have plenty more problems on the table - not just Brexit.



Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Coolkorat on April 19, 2017, 03:27:54 PM
Whatever happens with the other parties and the way the map becomes redrawn, it is likely to be Corbin's last seven weeks as Leader of the Opposition. I wonder if there will be a return of some of the old guard? Ed Balls, and perhaps even David Milliband. Milliband as Labour leader would at least give the country a credible opposition.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 19, 2017, 07:54:00 PM
Hi CK. I agree with that. Ed's victory over David was a true disaster IMO.
I'm not sure, (as a Leftie), that Labour could even garner the power to sort out the Corbyn issue. If Corbyn doesn't resign, he may well survive. Time will tell. ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dam12641 on April 21, 2017, 07:49:09 PM
Milliband, Milliband, Balls & Corbyn. Mmmmmm.
A credible opposition? Rog, are you sure that wasn't a typo for an "incredible proposition"?

While I'm here, I may as well get this off my chest.....

There is such chatter about hard and soft Brexit. Well, for me, as hard as you like.
1. Brexit divorce settlement? You have to be kidding me. Where in European legislation (of which they are so fond) is this even mentioned. Never mind quantified.
2. Trade tariffs. Well, being threatened by a bloc to which we are in trade deficit to the tune of GBP68 billion pa has me shaking with laughter rather than fear.

And I think that just about covers it.

Goodbye to the protectionist, socialist & spendthrift EU.
You will not be missed.
On the other hand, our pounds will be.
Bon chance.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 21, 2017, 08:10:06 PM
Hi Dam. 'Credible Opposition' was CK but I agreed.
I do think David M. would have been a better choice than Ed. M. then.
And much better than Corbyn now.
As for Ed Balls, yuk.
You are obviously an enthusiast for Brexit !

I think and hope your £ may come back. ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dam12641 on April 21, 2017, 08:31:44 PM
"You are obviously an enthusiast for Brexit !"
I should say so. I knew that Brexit "was written" last year when the polling day was set as June 23rd. My birthday.

"I think and hope your £ may come back. ATB"
For sure. GBP will be back to 52 Baht maybe even this year but more likely sometime next year.
As for the next 2 to 3 years, who knows, maybe 60. We'll see.
Good luck to those Thailand resident UK ex-pat pensioners (and my currency play).

And good luck to you too Roger. One never knows, someday, they may find a cure for your leftie aberrations.  ;)

Dale
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 29, 2017, 10:19:54 AM
Interesting article in the Telegraph by Varoufakis about negotiating with the eu. His advice? Don't!

Of course, we have more clout than Greece and not in the same situation. But quite shocked at the divide and rule tactics re: sovereignty now being applied by the eu, which I think they should keep their snouts firmly out of. I'm leaning towards just walking away if there is much more of this. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/28/yanis-varoufakis-brexit-advice-theresa-may-avoid-negotiating/

And a few snippets from his book:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/28/adult-room-yanis-varoufakis-tried-failed-win-forgiveness/#comments
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on April 29, 2017, 11:18:46 AM
Personally I think Greece should keep quiet and not advise other countries. Their lack of controlling their own finances caused a lot of problems IMHO.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 29, 2017, 01:09:10 PM
Personally I think Greece should keep quiet and not advise other countries. Their lack of controlling their own finances caused a lot of problems IMHO.

But despite that being known, they were still allowed into the club!

However, I don't disagree about the fact Greece continued in their old ways always expecting someone else to pay. But this article is about the negotiations and how difficult the EU made that and therefore I do believe his comments are relevant.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 29, 2017, 10:48:20 PM
Personally I think Greece should keep quiet and not advise other countries. Their lack of controlling their own finances caused a lot of problems IMHO.

But despite that being known, they were still allowed into the club!

However, I don't disagree about the fact Greece continued in their old ways always expecting someone else to pay. But this article is about the negotiations and how difficult the EU made that and therefore I do believe his comments are relevant.

So Caller, is the EU too gentle (allowing anyone in) or is it too nasty (tough negotiators)? Make up your mind.

Also: you agree Greece is still persisting in their bad old ways, but in the same time you criticise the EU for being tough towards Greece... Yet, we know you're not biased against the EU, come on! And don't forget to blame Germany too, next time.

As for Greece, Robert is right 100%, they should just SHUT UP and thank God they were not kicked out of the Euro when it emerged that they had been cheating. Among other factors, the Euro is weak now also because of them.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 30, 2017, 12:32:07 AM
Personally I think Greece should keep quiet and not advise other countries. Their lack of controlling their own finances caused a lot of problems IMHO.

But despite that being known, they were still allowed into the club!

However, I don't disagree about the fact Greece continued in their old ways always expecting someone else to pay. But this article is about the negotiations and how difficult the EU made that and therefore I do believe his comments are relevant.

So Caller, is the EU too gentle (allowing anyone in) or is it too nasty (tough negotiators)? Make up your mind.

Naïve is a better word for letting Greece in, through following a slavish expansion programme, which ultimately could be the downfall of the EU in it's present form. 

Also: you agree Greece is still persisting in their bad old ways, but in the same time you criticise the EU for being tough towards Greece... Yet, we know you're not biased against the EU, come on! And don't forget to blame Germany too, next time.

No I didn't say that. They did carry on, but that has been stopped. What's your point Anton? Apart from petulance? It's pretty well documented that the eu aren't being tough, they are being vindictive. There isn't an economist worth his salt saying anything other than the EU actions are prolonging the Greek agony, even the IMF and yes, ultimately, Germany were involved. Just read the extracts I copied for your delectation.

As for Greece, Robert is right 100%, they should just SHUT UP and thank God they were not kicked out of the Euro when it emerged that they had been cheating. Among other factors, the Euro is weak now also because of them.

Great Anton, what a wonderful little club the eu is. I bet you were drooling and saliva was falling from your smile when you watched Greek pensioners being tear gassed on the streets of Athens, when protesting about 25% cuts in their pensions. Enjoy your club mate.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 30, 2017, 09:12:24 AM
Just read the extracts I copied for your delectation.

What extracts? Varoufakis' point of view?


As for Greece, Robert is right 100%, they should just SHUT UP and thank God they were not kicked out of the Euro when it emerged that they had been cheating. Among other factors, the Euro is weak now also because of them.

Great Anton, what a wonderful little club the eu is. I bet you were drooling and saliva was falling from your smile when you watched Greek pensioners being tear gassed on the streets of Athens, when protesting about 25% cuts in their pensions. Enjoy your club mate.

What a nonsense. Greek people must blame their government, their privileged civil servants establishment, their great and small tax evaders. Why should others pay for their mistakes? Remember Slovakia's resentment 2 years ago, this was the Financial Times: http://www.ft.com/content/692bfc12-b831-11e4-86bb-00144feab7de (http://www.ft.com/content/692bfc12-b831-11e4-86bb-00144feab7de)

I've been to Greece before and I can assure you none is starving there.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 30, 2017, 11:37:33 AM
Just read the extracts I copied for your delectation.

What extracts? Varoufakis' point of view?

Well its not really his point of view, more his recalling how events unfolded during the negotiations. Of course, that's only from his perspective. But you know, the guys an academic and an economist as well as being a socialist and an eu / euro supporting one as well. His axe to grind is the fact that the troika wasn't there to solve a problem but to punish Greece, which continues to be punished and will be for ever and a day unless the terms change. Another country with 45% youth unemployment is only storing up trouble for the future. The migration problems that Greece (and Italy) have borne the brunt of haven't gone away either, they're just hidden whilst all the elections are going on.

As for Greece, Robert is right 100%, they should just SHUT UP and thank God they were not kicked out of the Euro when it emerged that they had been cheating. Among other factors, the Euro is weak now also because of them.

Great Anton, what a wonderful little club the eu is. I bet you were drooling and saliva was falling from your smile when you watched Greek pensioners being tear gassed on the streets of Athens, when protesting about 25% cuts in their pensions. Enjoy your club mate.

What a nonsense. Greek people must blame their government, their privileged civil servants establishment, their great and small tax evaders. Why should others pay for their mistakes? Remember Slovakia's resentment 2 years ago, this was the Financial Times: http://www.ft.com/content/692bfc12-b831-11e4-86bb-00144feab7de (http://www.ft.com/content/692bfc12-b831-11e4-86bb-00144feab7de)

I've been to Greece before and I can assure you none is starving there.

I've been a few times too, mainland, southern islands, northern islands, a few cities, but you know, that was all a while ago now. Its gone beyond a blame game in my opinion and its one of the reasons that made me vote for Brexit. If anything, the Greek crisis proved the point that the euro cannot work unless there are massive changes to the way it is managed and the net loser in the changes needed will, ahem, sorry for having to say this, be Germany. So it wont happen as they believe that everyone else should be following their example on managing an economy. Its the same reason that Macrons presidency will fail. As his proposals for the euro are fundamentally against German interests and to a degree their constitution. So the anti-eu fervour will build in France until 2022 and who knows what will happen then.

Tons of this sort of stuff on the net and from economic journalists and so on, so lets choose a Nobel prize winner:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/10/joseph-stiglitz-the-problem-with-europe-is-the-euro

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 01, 2017, 06:19:38 AM
We can rely on John Redwood for a clear view of things . . . . .

''I do not understand why some in the EU Commission seem to think the UK owes the bloc any money on leaving. The UK is not seeking a divorce from Europe. It is a silly misrepresentation.''

Well said John ! And how about a Refund to the UK, of all the Funds contributed to EU Capital Projects over the years.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/dear-mr-juncker-brexit-isnt-divorce-eu-can-forget-alimony/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on May 01, 2017, 09:09:06 AM
I've been a few times too, mainland, southern islands, northern islands, a few cities, but you know, that was all a while ago now. Its gone beyond a blame game in my opinion and its one of the reasons that made me vote for Brexit.

So that's where the bias comes from. At least now we know.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: enrico on May 01, 2017, 10:10:30 AM
BREXIT  the E.U. says that the U.K. must pay for the divorce  ( i did not know that we were even married ? ) ,, but if we were, and one partner was forced out by the others unreasonable and bully-ing tactics, i think a judge might give the victim ( ie the U.K. ) a large sum in settlement ?? so the E.U. had better start to dig in to pay for its alimony....    ha ha ha     LOL
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on May 01, 2017, 12:26:02 PM
I've been a few times too, mainland, southern islands, northern islands, a few cities, but you know, that was all a while ago now. Its gone beyond a blame game in my opinion and its one of the reasons that made me vote for Brexit.

So that's where the bias comes from. At least now we know.

That's a surprisingly silly comment Anton. I would have expected better of you. I've been to many Countries. Doesn't mean I'm blinded to their faults. Same as living in Thailand, or even the UK, for that matter. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 01, 2017, 02:41:05 PM
Enrico - well said !!!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on May 01, 2017, 03:07:48 PM
For me it is simple.

Those who are pro-Brexit will defend their opinion and use everything to convince anti-Brexit followers.
Those who are anti-Brexit will defend their opinion and use everything to convince pro-Brexit followers.

If I may borrow a quote from Rudyard Kipling, in his Barrack-room ballads, 1892:

"Oh, East is East, and West is West, and never the twain shall meet."

 Nobody can look into the future so just lets wait and see. In the meantime: Carpe Diem.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Hector on May 01, 2017, 03:47:12 PM
May be better to quote the whole of the first two cou8plets of Kipling's poem:
Oh, East is East, and West is West, and never the twain shall meet,

Till Earth and Sky stand presently at God's great Judgment Seat;

But there is neither East nor West, Border, nor Breed, nor Birth,

When two strong men stand face to face, though they come from the ends of the earth!

It also makes more sense if you read the whole poem and then consider the compromises that you make as a westerner(?) living in Thailand
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 01, 2017, 03:59:26 PM
It seems that Mrs May has been setting the record straight.
Surely, now the wish of the UK has been set, the EU should help us leave smoothly - they have a lot more to lose than the UK, bearing in mind the massive trade imbalance. 

'J-C J' is probably worried that his Dining Allowance will be cut when the UK leaves.

''Jean-Claude Juncker phoned up Angela Merkel to tell her that Theresa May is "deluded" and "on another galaxy" after Brexit talks went awry at a disastrous dinner last Wednesday. The European Commission launched a scathing attack on Theresa May in German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.''


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/jean-claude-juncker-says-theresa-may-deluded-scathing-call-angela/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on May 01, 2017, 04:21:49 PM
^ Good for Theresa May. I find it hilarious that the EU apparatchik's insisted on no negotiations before article 50 being triggered and no negotiations before official negotiations start but they have been guilty of doing precisely that. It's good to see the UK side playing the same game and not simply bending over to take it up the rear.

But IMO it's all huff and puff, rhetoric and pre-negotiation posturing - on both sides. Even the so-called "red lines" will be negotiated. That's what the negotiations are for.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 01, 2017, 08:38:18 PM
Good. 10 times is a start back to a little reality. He may yet learn more.
J-C J represents only himself. Who cares. He's a Jobsworth no doubt.
Heads will roll - before long. Hopefully his.
The Governments of the 'Lost 27' need to assert themselves - these Guys and Gals are only playing for their lovely Pensions.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/01/jean-claude-juncker-to-theresa-may-on-brexit-im-10-times-more-sceptical-than-i-was-before
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on May 01, 2017, 11:01:37 PM
Juncker must have been on the whacky baccy.  :D


No 10 'doesn't recognise' account of Juncker dinner

Downing Street has said it "does not recognise" an account published in a German newspaper of a dinner last week between Prime Minister Theresa May and EC President Jean-Claude Juncker.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39770328 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39770328)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on May 01, 2017, 11:08:55 PM
I'm sure all these rather eccentric reports are efforts to destabilise the British public in the run up to the GE. Shocking behaviour.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on May 01, 2017, 11:17:15 PM
The more I read about these European idiots, the more I'm glad the UK is leaving the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on May 02, 2017, 06:24:10 AM
The more I read about these European idiots, the more I'm glad the UK is leaving the EU.

I'm sure you're selecting your sources carefully and strictly in English. And I bet that if you happen to read a report critic towards British demands on Brexit, you'll quickly dismiss it as "a pretty biased article and one that misses the point."

Yes, a pretty biased article and one that misses the point.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 02, 2017, 07:22:13 PM
Anton. This is one for you.
With 'Friends' like these, who needs the EU ?

''Even by the standards of the European Union, the leaking of a fly-on-the-wall account of a supposedly private Downing Street dinner between Theresa May, David Davis and Jean-Claude Juncker and his team was a brazen power-play.''

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/02/eus-brazen-brexit-dinner-leak-will-backfire/

It's just MHO but, the EU should be a little more sanguine about Brexit - in some ways, that would show the 'Lost 27', that it's worth staying. J-C J is beginning to look like a pretty unparallelled sh*t - no wonder David Cameron opposed his appointment. Is the EU a good place to be - or a Prison ?

J-C J has a 'wine and dine' budget to protect. 

Let's get the UK out please - be it hard or soft.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 03, 2017, 07:39:15 AM
''Germany has been accused by allies of Theresa May of trying to influence the General Election by undermining the Prime Minister over Brexit talks. Allies of Mrs May believe Germany, in tandem with the EU, is embarking on a new “project fear” by repeatedly briefing against her.''

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/02/germany-interfering-general-election-undermine-theresa-may/

And some ideas from Andrew Evans-Pritchard about the UK asserting itself in the Brexit process . . .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/02/britain-must-leapfrog-brussels-seize-initiative-every-front/

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on May 03, 2017, 08:33:49 AM
(http://i.imgur.com/NoHS8n8.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on May 03, 2017, 08:46:20 AM
To counter the many deranged rantings of Juncker and Guy Verhofstadt, we have the rather sensible and pragmatic opinion of the current Belgium finance minister, which also lay's bare the reality of eu unity towards Brexit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/02/belgian-finance-minister-warns-eu-change-die/

As an aside, I have been surprised to see facebook friends, real friends of many years standing in reality, discussing politics for the first time. One posted a video of that Abbott interview and openly saying they would not be voting Labour this time, as there was too much that they disagreed with them about, on what I do not know. But I have never known that before, they have always been staunch Labour. All of us grew up on Council estates and it was a given that our parents were Labour supporters. Many of us moved on from that years ago - I personally vote for who I think will do best, so over the years that has been any of the three main party's and UKIP in the EU elections, simply to challenge the status quo there - but these particular friends to openly state they will not vote Labour, is earth shattering news!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on May 03, 2017, 03:58:10 PM
To counter the many deranged rantings of Juncker and Guy Verhofstadt,

Juncker should be fired.

Quote
rexit has “shattered” the principle of ever closer union in the EU, according to the Belgian finance minister, who warned that the bloc had to transform itself to survive.

Johan Van Overtveldt said there was “clearly a problem” with the European Union, as he called for a quick, comprehensive trade deal with the UK and warned that punishing Britain would be counterproductive.

EU apparatchiks.
(http://i.imgur.com/4EtlQFx.jpg)

As an aside, I have been surprised to see facebook friends, real friends of many years standing in reality, discussing politics for the first time. One posted a video of that Abbott interview and openly saying they would not be voting Labour this time, as there was too much that they disagreed with them about, on what I do not know. But I have never known that before, they have always been staunch Labour. All of us grew up on Council estates and it was a given that our parents were Labour supporters. Many of us moved on from that years ago - I personally vote for who I think will do best, so over the years that has been any of the three main party's and UKIP in the EU elections, simply to challenge the status quo there - but these particular friends to openly state they will not vote Labour, is earth shattering news!

I have never voted Conservative in my life, but if I was back in the UK for this election (I won't be there), I would vote Conservative.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on May 03, 2017, 04:27:41 PM
The more I read about these European idiots, the more I'm glad the UK is leaving the EU.

I'm sure you're selecting your sources carefully and strictly in English. And I bet that if you happen to read a report critic towards British demands on Brexit, you'll quickly dismiss it as "a pretty biased article and one that misses the point."

What are the British demands on Brexit, Anton?  Do you know?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on May 03, 2017, 04:40:48 PM

Is Anton Juncker in disguise?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on May 03, 2017, 11:34:02 PM
Brexit won’t be painless, warns EU’s Michel Barnier (http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-wont-be-painless-warns-eus-michel-barnier/)

'There is no punishment. There is no Brexit bill' — but the negotiations will be long and tough, says the EU negotiator.

The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier told the U.K. on Wednesday it was wrong to try to make people believe the separation from the bloc will be a fast and painless process with no impact on people's lives.

Presenting the European Commission's proposed negotiating directives that will form the basis of his mandate for the talks, the French diplomat told reporters: "Some have created the illusion that Brexit would have no material impact on our lives or that negotiations can be concluded quickly and painlessly. This is not the case."

Politico full report (http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-wont-be-painless-warns-eus-michel-barnier/)





See also:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmbFkW1jItA

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on May 04, 2017, 01:17:31 AM
Teresa May's response!

http://news.sky.com/video/theresa-may-speaks-at-downing-street-10861835
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 04, 2017, 05:04:42 AM
The EU are making a big mistake in trying to bully the UK instead of acting like a Friend. The EU betrays it's own frailty. Other EU Member States with active 'Exit movements' may actually be emboldened as the EU beast reveals it's true nature. Quotes below are from a DT article today - the argument is made that in the UK, even 'Remainers' are being alienated by the authoritarian and bombastic attitude of the EU and Merkel.

''The good news is that if the country (UK) was divided 52-48 per cent last June, it would surely be united 80-20 per cent on the basis of this new litmus test.

The first group includes most Remain voters: they may have disagreed with Brexit but quite naturally want the best for Britain and are furious at the EU’s blatant aggression. Its latest preposterous demands – that we should hand over €100 billion for the privilege of regaining our self-government and that we can, in effect, never really leave – are so belligerent, so absurdly punitive that they will be remembered as a seminal moment in the hardening of British opinion.''

''.... I’m finding it increasingly hard to avoid concluding that the EU is actually engaging in a bizarre attempt at reenacting the settlement that followed the First World War: the €100 billion figure is so extreme, so devoid of any rational basis or genuine legal logic that it must be seen as an attempt at imposing reparations on Britain. We are guilty of crimes against the European dream, and must therefore face cruel and unusual punishment.''

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/03/brussels-bid-make-britain-worse-exposes-economic-illiterates/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on May 04, 2017, 09:46:53 AM
Dedicated to Torygraph editors and readers and to those who keep quoting the Torygraph in here:


(http://i.imgur.com/3qSbgBi.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on May 04, 2017, 10:45:53 AM
Quote
Dedicated to Torygraph editors and readers and to those who keep quoting the Torygraph in here:

You forgot to dedicate it to yourself
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dam12641 on May 04, 2017, 11:02:10 AM
“WHAT GALAXY ARE YOU FROM?”

We’re from a country that:
a)   Hasn’t been invaded/conquered/occupied in nearly a thousand years. All the continental European countries have been invaded/conquered/occupied countless times during the same period. And which little country (with the cousins) saved them twice most recently? And many times before that: Napoleonic Wars, Seven Years War, War of Spanish Succession, etc.
b)   Will not be bossed about by pathetic Hitler-esque, unelected Eurocrats who come from tiny countries (Belgium & Luxembourg) where it is simply an accepted fact that they are bossed about by Germany, France, whoever.

 It is really as simple as that.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on May 04, 2017, 11:26:41 AM

I was looking  for something to post on quote of the day and found this

"Men and nations behave wisely once they have exhausted all the other alternatives."
- Abba Eban (1915-2002)

I thought it quite apt for this topic
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 04, 2017, 01:42:00 PM
Jivvy - hopefully we're ready for the wisdom now.

Dam - well said. We know where you stand !

As I said before Anton - you are a Wag . . .
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on May 04, 2017, 02:52:46 PM
Here's another one from Anton's torygraph. But before he starts frothing at the mouth again, here's some background info on the author - from the Guardian.

Andrew Lilico is an economist, the managing director of Europe Economics, an economics consultancy. One of Europe's top experts on the economic impact of financial regulation, he led the teams doing the European Parliament's assessment of the impact of the Financial Services Action Plan, the European Commission's assessment of the costs of complying with financial regulation, and the FSA's assessment of the benefits of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive. He is a member of the IEA/Sunday Times Shadow Monetary Policy Committee and a regular commentator on economic issues on BBC television and radio, and on Sky, Bloomberg and CNBC Europe

https://www.theguardian.com/profile/andrew-lilico

So what does he have to say?

It is beginning to look, from the UK perspective, as if some in the Commission are seeking to engineer a no-Brexit-deal crisis. They imagine that will be like the periods of capital controls in Cyprus and Greece, which demonstrated to the populations of those countries their impotence and their position as supplicants. It seems like some EU officials imagine the UK will react in the same way.

The reality is that no Brexit deal would be bad for the UK and bad for the EU as well. But on both sides it would turn people against the EU. On the UK side it would make people think that the more extreme anti-EU folk were right all along. In the EU27 it would empower the populist forces who claim the EU is uninterested in the economic welfare of ordinary citizens.


Full article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/european-commission-wants-engineer-no-brexit-deal-crisis-will/

I wonder what the Belgium finance minister, seeking a friendly parting of the ways with as little impact on their respective economies as possible, is thinking about the stance of the dictatorial eu technocrats this morning? Not to mention all those eu workers who face hardship as a consequence?

Do I believe it will happen? No.

Do I believe that Juncker, the loathsome Verhofstadt and Barnier want a no-deal finale - oh yes! They would relish in it.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on May 04, 2017, 05:38:59 PM
the stance of the dictatorial eu technocrats this morning

LOL, what are you talking about? All what Barnier does is applying negotiating guidelines approved by the 27 leaders last Saturday, unanimously and in just a handful of minutes. That is, the perfectly natural and logical 2 phases approach that disturbs you so much because it will not let the UK shun its obligations as easy as you wish. All 27 were there, including Germany opponents such as Tsipras; all 27 approved the guidelines without batting an eyelid. Keep on quoting economists' opinions: with or without a Nobel prize, they won't change a comma to the facts.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on May 04, 2017, 07:07:08 PM
Okay, dictotorial eu then. Lets wait and see how long it takes for the cracks to appear.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on May 04, 2017, 07:12:14 PM
Okay, dictotorial eu then.

Dictatorial nothing at all.

Lets wait and see how long it takes for the cracks to appear.

Cracks are all around in today's world. It's a cracking world.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dam12641 on May 04, 2017, 08:26:02 PM
So to summarise the statements of EU “officials”:

1.   The UK is subject to all future EU expenditure.
2.   The UK has no share in present or future EU assets.
3.   We have some snake-oil for sale. Do you want to buy some?

As it descends into farce, it is a great shame that we cannot appoint Nigel Hawthorne/Sir Humphrey Appleby as our chief negotiator. He talked their language.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dereklev on May 05, 2017, 06:31:15 AM
Jivvy - hopefully we're ready for the wisdom now.

Dam - well said. We know where you stand !

As I said before Anton - you are a Wag . . .

Is he married to a footballer :o
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 05, 2017, 07:28:58 AM
Hi Anton - quoting from your 5.38 pm on May 4th - ''All what Barnier does is applying negotiating guidelines approved by the 27 leaders last Saturday, unanimously and in just a handful of minutes . . . . . . .
. . . . . . .  all 27 approved the guidelines without batting an eyelid
.''

There lies the problem ! These are the 'Lost 27' with the mechanisms that take 9 years to decide on the size of the official teaspoon !

The speed at which this decision was taken, illustrates that the EU are proceeding with Brexit discussions, or should I say posturing, without any consideration of or respect for their parting Friend, the UK. Disgraceful adventuring and fooling around.

The observation that the childish behaviour of the EU is alienating many 'Remainers' in the UK is right on the button !
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 05, 2017, 07:35:47 AM
Dam well said 12641 - unleashing Sir Humphrey Appleby on the EU and their 'Crats would be a masterstroke !

Derek - 'WAG' is Wives And Girlfriends for the footballer - and 'Wag is a person who likes making jokes - someone like Anton in fact.  ::)
(Of course you know but this is for the non-Brits, ATB).
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 05, 2017, 07:47:11 AM
Anton - in your photo of a happy and relaxed EU 27, I see a beaming Alexis Tsipras the PM of Greece. BTW he ain't laughing now . .

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eurozone-greece-debt-idUKKBN18021G?rpc=401&

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/800143/Greek-Debt-Bailout-Germany-Angela-Merkel-austerity-IMF-EU-ECB-Athens

Looks like he'll have to produce yet more 'austerity' to keep the Germans happy !
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dam12641 on May 05, 2017, 04:48:55 PM
"Looks like he'll have to produce yet more 'austerity' to keep the Germans happy !"

Roger, I applaud your optimism but sadly there are very few things that would make the Germans happy.
Not sure if there is even a phrase in German for 'happy'.

Only joking!

Of course there is. It's:
"Let's invade Poland."

(I'm still only joking)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on May 05, 2017, 05:39:23 PM
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has called the UK decision to leave the EU "a tragedy". Well, his leadership of the EU is a comedy.

 ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on May 05, 2017, 05:50:41 PM
Brexit talks will be 'impossible' if emotions unchecked - Donald Tusk

Juncker: The UK decision to leave the EU is "a tragedy".
Juncker: The UK is abandoning the EU

Why is Juncker so emotional about it?



Juncker's chief-of-staff, Martin Selmayr: Brexit is a 'sad and sorry event', 'a sad business that can never be considered a success.
Juncker: 'Brexit cannot be a success'.

It seems Juncker wants the talks to fail.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pompui on May 05, 2017, 11:12:04 PM
I don't know if this Juncker guy said it in English or it has been translated but, abandoning was a poor choice of word if you ask me. These are the meanings according to the Cambridge online dictionary.

We were sinking fast, and the captain gave the order to abandon ship.
If disturbed, the bird may abandon the nest, leaving the chicks to die.
It was his instinct for self-preservation that led him to abandon his former friends and transfer his allegiance to the new rulers.
According to an eyewitness account, the thieves abandoned their vehicle near the scene of the robbery and then ran off.

And the Oxford dictionary.

Cease to support or look after (someone)
Condemn someone or something to (a specified fate) by ceasing to take an interest in them.
Leave a ship because it is sinking.

If you ask me, he's implying that the EU is well and truly f*cked up the Zenne without a pagaie.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on May 05, 2017, 11:54:01 PM
Juncker's problem is that he is an ultra-integrationist wanting to see a European superstate and anything less is a failure.

According to Juncker, "There's not enough solidarity in Europe." Perhaps that should be a clue to him that Europe shouldn't be more than just a large market with a few fringe benefits. I'd really like to see reliable figures about how many Europeans feel about Europe becoming a superstate but I doubt the Euro bureaucrats would want the results to be seen by the public.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on May 05, 2017, 11:55:08 PM
It seems Michel Barnier has now also joined in the silliness and the let's-make-sure-Brexit-negotiations-fail campaign.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on May 06, 2017, 06:25:54 AM
Perhaps that should be a clue to him that Europe shouldn't be more than just a large market with a few fringe benefits. I'd really like to see reliable figures about how many Europeans feel about Europe becoming a superstate but I doubt the Euro bureaucrats would want the results to be seen by the public.

Personnaly I agree with this view for a 100%. I also did NOT like introduction of the Euro against fixed exchange rates. In the past a country could devaluate if the their economy was not going very good.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: enrico on May 06, 2017, 10:47:43 AM
the E.U. president say,s,, that the english language is losing its importance ? well i have news for him ? if he is on an internatonal flight,and the pilot does not speak english,, he will find it very difficult to land at most airports around the world just say-ing  EFM                                           
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on May 06, 2017, 10:49:00 AM
Perhaps that should be a clue to him that Europe shouldn't be more than just a large market with a few fringe benefits.

Personnaly I agree with this view for a 100%. I also did NOT like introduction of the Euro against fixed exchange rates. In the past a country could devaluate if the their economy was not going very good.


The President of the European Commission doesn't have the power or the mandate to shape how the EU is or will be. That is the European Council's role. The President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, now Tusk and Juncker, are non-voting participants in European Council's meetings.

Alfie and Robert: you can send a letter to all 27 voting members in the European Council (the 27 premiers) informing them of how the EU should look like in your point of view and recommending them not to propose Juncker for a second mandate when time will come. And you can write to all voting members in the European Parliament recommending them not to re-elect Juncker.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on May 06, 2017, 10:49:39 AM
the E.U. president  say,s (...)

There is no "E.U. president".
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on May 06, 2017, 11:01:41 AM
Perhaps that should be a clue to him that Europe shouldn't be more than just a large market with a few fringe benefits.

Personnaly I agree with this view for a 100%. I also did NOT like introduction of the Euro against fixed exchange rates. In the past a country could devaluate if the their economy was not going very good.


The President of the European Commission doesn't have the power or the mandate to shape how the EU is or will be. That is the European Council's role. The President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, now Tusk and Juncker, are non-voting participants in European Council's meetings.

Alfie and Robert: you can send a letter to all 27 voting members in the European Council (the 27 premiers) informing them of how the EU should look like in your point of view and recommending them not to propose Juncker for a second mandate when time will come. Or you can write to all voting members in the European Parliament recommending them not to re-elect him.

Hi Anton,

I wrote especially PERSONALLY. I truly believe it was a huge mistake to introduce the Euro with fixed exchange rates. Countries could devaluate their own money when economics went wrong, now not possible anymore. We all have seen what the consequences are, value of the pound and the Euro went down.

Besides that I also think that a united Europe is an impossible dream. Countries differ too much and want to keep their own identity (and I fully agree).

I am amost 71 years young and have given up to improve the world. My father always said: there are more lunatics outside the asylum then behind bars inside.

Have a nice day.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: enrico on May 06, 2017, 11:23:58 AM
anton you say , no EU president ? ok .JUNCKER.. i dont know what they call it in french,, but in english we call it nit-picking ? or if you like,, fussy fault finding . EFM
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on May 06, 2017, 04:51:00 PM
Alfie and Robert: you can send a letter to all 27 voting members in the European Council (the 27 premiers) informing them of how the EU should look like in your point of view and recommending them not to propose Juncker for a second mandate when time will come. And you can write to all voting members in the European Parliament recommending them not to re-elect Juncker.

Thanks for the suggestion, Anton, but fortunately the UK will be out of the EU by the time Juncker's current term expires.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: enrico on May 06, 2017, 05:39:08 PM
the E.U. to me is beginning to look like some of the un-scrupulous landlords of pattaya,and some other parts of the world ?  when i lived in pattaya over ten years ago, these landlords would buy some land and build a block of condo apartments,, they would sell for a reasonable price ? when the block was full, the water, electric, and lifts would break down frequently,, so some people left. squatters were let in to use the empty apartments,, the paint on the out side walls began to peel off. it was not long before it looked like a ghetto ? the landlord would then buy the rest of the apartments for next to nothing,, when every one had gone, the police were called to get rid of the squatters ? out would come the paint, and off we go again ??      maybe the E.U. are doing the same thing, the last few who are left carve it up, and laugh all the way to the bank     E.F.M.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dam12641 on May 06, 2017, 06:05:51 PM
Enrico, are you suggesting that the EU officials are just a bunch of low-life shysters?
That's an outrageous suggestion!

 ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 06, 2017, 07:12:49 PM
Enrico - you are a cynic but that is a luscious relevant story.
Dam - Shysters is a compliment to this crew !

Enrico - the last few will have 'nowt' IMO.

For the EU - the message is - change - or it's over. And apologise to the UK for forcing us out . . . Maybe the EU should have listened to DC in that 'Last Chance Saloon'.
(Even though he's a Tory !)
ATB

 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dam12641 on May 06, 2017, 07:48:58 PM
"Maybe the EU should have listened to DC in that 'Last Chance Saloon'.
(Even though he's a Tory !)"

If only he were. That was always his problem. He wasn't; and significant parts of the Tory party recognised that.
(from Day 1 when he was standing for leader and refused to endorse private education and low taxes)
Personally, I was always a lifelong Tory (Thatcherite), until DC was elected leader. Then, I would rather have voted for Lenin than DC.
Ok, I didn't have to go that far and ended up with UKIP so perhaps DC et al have played their part and it has all turned out well.

Dale
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on May 06, 2017, 11:15:53 PM
and it has all turned out well


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVXBnfGFQe0
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on May 07, 2017, 04:09:13 PM
How many times have you posted that clip now, Anton? Three?

And you still haven't explained what you mean by it, so it's hardly making any point by posting it again.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on May 07, 2017, 04:59:18 PM
How many times have you posted that clip now, Anton? Three?

It's possible, I'm not counting.

And you still haven't explained what you mean by it, so it's hardly making any point by posting it again.

Yes I did and my point remains the same: http://korat-farang.com/forum/index.php?topic=8971.msg68654#msg68654 (http://korat-farang.com/forum/index.php?topic=8971.msg68654#msg68654)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 07, 2017, 06:16:46 PM
Dam, having leftish leanings, I've always wanted to vote Labour.
But unfortunately, voting is not just a 'tribal' or doctrinaire thing - you need to vote for a Party who you think can best manage the Country's problems !
I often feel I can't vote the way I want to, as my lot (Labour), are so bloody hopeless !

Alfie, coming back to Brexit - as Anton has posted that silly clip again, it would seem to me that the 'Remainers' have already run out of rational points to make.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on May 07, 2017, 08:27:52 PM
Yes I did and my point remains the same: http://korat-farang.com/forum/index.php?topic=8971.msg68654#msg68654 (http://korat-farang.com/forum/index.php?topic=8971.msg68654#msg68654)

Yes, but no-one understood it first time around. There's little sense in having a point that no-one get's?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dam12641 on May 07, 2017, 08:46:30 PM
"There's little sense in having a point that no-one get's?"

Oh, I don't know Caller. I can think of two instances:

1. Anton's middle name is "enigmatic".
2. France.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on May 07, 2017, 11:22:28 PM
It seems somewhat "anachronistic" to post a short clip from a 1964 film about the Beatles in a thread about a country's vote to leave a political and economic union in 2017.

Still, I suppose it proves that the EU commissioners 'Can't buy me love' ('Any time at all'). 'I Should Have Known Better' to have trusted those pesky Europeans. Anton, 'Tell Me Why' it's such a sin to leave the EU. If you persuade me you are right, Anton, 'When I Get Home', 'I'll Cry Instead'. It has not been 'A Hard Day's Night' so 'I'll Be Back'.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on May 08, 2017, 12:13:01 AM
Perhaps Juncker feels this emotional about Brexit.   ;D


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVrJ0K7MK7s
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 13, 2017, 07:16:55 AM
Good ole' Boris - you have to luv him !

''Brussels could end up having to pay Britain a Brexit divorce bill because the UK has contributed to so many EU assets, Boris Johnson has suggested, as he accused Europe of wanting to “bleed this country white”. In his first major interview of the election campaign, the Foreign Secretary said there were “very good arguments” to why Britain should demand money back, adding that EU leaders were “trying it on”.“

“There are assets, I don’t want to get too much into the detail of the negotiation but there are assets that we share, that we have paid for over the years and there will need to be a proper computation of the value of those assets. I certainly think the bill that’s been presented at the moment is absurd.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/12/exclusive-brussels-could-end-paying-britain-brexit-divorce-bill/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on May 13, 2017, 03:50:15 PM
With a bit of luck, Boris will be out of a job after the election. He's one of T May's worst appointments.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 13, 2017, 05:08:03 PM
Boris - 'one of T May's worst appointments'. Maybe so. Time will tell.

ATM it's useful to have a Boris around - in that item today, I think Boris makes a good point about the UK's contribution to EU assets whilst the EU persists with 'trying it on' - being the laughable talk of a 'divorce settlement'. AIMVHO of course !

 ;)

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on May 13, 2017, 07:37:52 PM
In fairness, the question of the UK's 'ownership' of a % of eu assets has been widely discussed, so Boris isn't saying anything new. I thought it interesting that in his recent 'you owe 100bn' speech, Barmier also claimed the UK wasn't entitled to any share of the eu's asset's! I don't think he has any legal basis for saying that, but then he seems to think he doesn't need one. But it was all just more bluster. Anyone noticed that he, Juncker and the Belgium fool have basically shut up now.

http://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2017/02/uk-could-claim-share-eu-assets-brexit-talks-says-cipfa
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 14, 2017, 09:33:01 AM
It seems to me that the UK has a valid claim to a share of EU assets but the EU does not have a valid claim under any Treaty, for a post divorce 'maintenance' claim.
Bang that drum Boris !
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 16, 2017, 09:44:03 AM
Caller - re. your previous post, Barnier, Juncker and who ?   

Alfie - that Hitler tube has been used before on the Scancell BB - very good.

I don't think we'll hear any meaningful news on this for a while, until the UK election is done and dusted.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on May 16, 2017, 09:51:01 AM
Quote
Caller - re. your previous post, Barnier, Juncker and who ?   

Think about it !!!!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on May 16, 2017, 12:58:07 PM
Caller - re. your previous post, Barnier, Juncker and who ?

This guy - the ultimate political mercenary - following the money by banging the right drums. Ultimately, always exposed as less than adequate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guy_Verhofstadt
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 16, 2017, 01:02:18 PM
Thanks Caller - good to clear that up.
Jivvy ?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on May 16, 2017, 02:57:39 PM

I thought the cap fitted somebody else and obviously thought wrong  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 16, 2017, 03:14:32 PM
Jivvy I guessed as much  ;)  How could you ?

Where is Anton ? I thought he might have something to say about Macron and the coming proposed rebirth of the EU. I wonder how those anti EU French who just elected Macron will react as time goes on ?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on May 16, 2017, 07:23:04 PM
Well let me be absolutely clear now that I never, ever meant my comments to apply to Anton.

But I do have a particular dislike of Mr Verhofstadt.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 16, 2017, 07:44:36 PM
Caller well said re. Anton. It's clear now.

I share your dislike of Verhofstadt. IMO a most unsavoury character.

 8)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: enrico on June 21, 2017, 09:11:03 AM
BREXIT  ??   ......................so its finally started ? and still all the doom and gloom mongers are give-ing there opinions ?  you might as well ask the eskimo,s what they think ? you see, not one company has had to pack it in,, and i mean a company, not a corner shop .  the pound has been going up and down  oooo1 per cent for years ? as for the fire in london, it was an accident for christ sake ?      simply put from now on if we have something to sell or buy, you just have to agree a price.. if not just walk away     it reminds me of when i ran a pub, there was this young man square-ing up to this old man on the car park ? the young man was say-ing to the oldman that he was going to do this and do that to the old man ?  the old man took one look at the young man and said, and do you suppose that i am just going to stand there and let you ??     BREXIT  BRING  IT  ON                ha ha ha          LOL       E
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on June 21, 2017, 11:52:14 AM
I'm guessing that this Brexit thread will run for a long time - and we've only just begun !

Enrico - I admire your enthusiasm for Brexit  ;) 
In these days of omni-directional 24/7 media overload there will be a thousand stories at any one time - maybe for years. A depressing thought. Or it will be depressing if we take on board every drama and reaction from all the pundits, officials and interests in the 'lost 27', (as I like to call them).
 
I can't see there being much actual progress for some months if ever, particularly with the EU on it's current Honeymoon post Macron and with some respite atm from it's other problems. But Honeymoons don't last long usually.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on June 23, 2017, 11:15:57 PM
Negotiations have started but Tusk says that May's idea/offer was "below expectations". Tough titty, Tusk.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on June 24, 2017, 12:22:40 AM
My disappointment is simply that these negotiations should be kept between the relevant parties until an agreement has been reached - or not. And then announce it
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on June 24, 2017, 09:32:27 AM
Caller I agree that Brexit discussions should be private until there is agreement or final failure to agree - otherwise we get unending comments from disaffected parties on all sides, national politicians, MEP's, pundits etc. etc..

Alfie the EU Commission, MEP's and the 27 Leaders are illustrating extremely clearly why the UK needs to leave. The EU has been unresponsive over the years to all calls for change, from other Nations not just the UK and the whole gruesome machine blunders on for the benefit, mainly of a few major economies. I had to chuckle, hearing on the TV today that when Germany and France stand together, everything is OK. B*llocks to that frankly. Tell that cr*p to Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain, Hungary, Poland AND the UK.
Some 'friends' our neighbours are turning out to be.

From a Guardian article, ''Mrs May outlined her offer to allow all three million EU citizens to remain in the UK with the same rights and welfare benefits as British people, but those rights would be enshrined in UK law.''

That seems a more than reasonable offer to me.

And ''For the first time, Mrs May had directly and personally confronted the EU’s own red line that Britain’s withdrawal agreement must be policed by the European Court of Justice – a position that UK negotiators say no sovereign country could ever accept. There was polite tension in the room.''

From another article in the Guardian today :-

''According to the latest figures, 250,000 EU migrants settled here last year, but that may be a severe underestimate, since no fewer than 593,000 National Insurance Numbers were dished out to EU citizens in the same period, including 182,000 to Romanians, 84,000 to Poles and 42,000 to Bulgarians.

It is no wonder that the British population is rising inexorably – adding 5 million people between 2005-16, compared to 35 years for the previous increase of 5 million – and that our civic infrastructure is under such unprecedented strain.

There are a host of other factors which could encourage a further surge before a final Brexit deal is reached, such as the full right to claim social security, healthcare, and free education.

Under a deal, EU citizens here may still even be able to send child benefit back to their families in their homelands.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/23/theresa-mays-concessions-eu-citizens-risk-undermining-key-tenet/

Hard Brexit it will be - no doubt IMO. GLA.


Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: enrico on June 24, 2017, 11:59:04 AM
brexit  ???          i am sick and tired of all the doom and gloom people going on about brexit ? i would not mind if they could say some-thing constructive,, or better still give proof, of what they say ?..all they say is ..could be...or what if...or maybe ? dont they realize, we are at war. ok its not a shooting war ? but now the decision has been made to leave, they should at least stand behind there country ? i can, to some extent have feelings for there fears ? but just like in the last war, some did not want to fight ? so some became bevin boys, and went down the coal mines, but at least they did some-thing constructive ?? ...........i like to keep things simple ?  a few years ago i was at a race meeting, and i had a fancy for this horse ? a friend of mine took me over to the paddock, he pointed out my horse, and said look its got a limp, its lame. i was lucky.. so i did not back that horse.... you see he showed me some-thing,...constructive...positive...proof ?? so untill these moan and groan people can do the same.. they should keep there unhelpful opinions to them selves.         E.F.M.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on June 24, 2017, 01:49:40 PM
Caller I agree that Brexit discussions should be private until there is agreement or final failure to agree - otherwise we get unending comments from disaffected parties on all sides, national politicians, MEP's, pundits etc. etc..

Yes, that seems reasonable to me.

Alfie the EU Commission, MEP's and the 27 Leaders are illustrating extremely clearly why the UK needs to leave.

Some 'friends' our neighbours are turning out to be.

Absolutely. It seems they either want to bully the UK into staying in the EU or bully us so we walk away with no deal. Well, the way they are behaving, I'd rather the UK walk away with no deal than stay in a club full off tossers.

From a Guardian article, ''Mrs May outlined her offer to allow all three million EU citizens to remain in the UK with the same rights and welfare benefits as British people, but those rights would be enshrined in UK law.''

That seems a more than reasonable offer to me.

Yes, I agree. Generous and reasonable, but the EU tosspots want us to submit completely to their will. No problem. No deal. Send the 3 million EU citizens back to the EU in return for the 1.2 million Brits in the EU to leave the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on June 24, 2017, 05:25:28 PM
The UK is 'below expectations' on the issue of 'Citizens'.
Negotiations apparently don't move on until agreement on current discussions..
I just don't see us getting to the next stage.
And if Theresa May bends too much, the Parliamentary situation in the UK may fall apart. Immigration is a HOT topic !

Then how will we ever reach agreement on trade and post Brexit payments, which should be minimal IMO ?

On the other side, here's a DT article about the woes of BMW and others.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/22/europe-waking-impact-hard-brexit/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on June 25, 2017, 12:08:36 AM
TM has made a poor start in the Brexit negotiations. One can only hope she will not be around much longer and is replaced by somebody with a degree of competence. I would favour the setting up of a cross party team.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on June 26, 2017, 06:29:08 AM
Hi Teess.

To suggest that the Prime Minister does not have a 'degree of competence' is just easy and empty criticism. Just try it Teess. Why don't you stand for selection as a Parliamentary candidate, work your way through and become an MP and battle to the top of the pile ? TM is a very clever, hardworking and determined Woman battling her way through an almost impossible workload. She'll make some mistakes along the way, as we all do.
A cross Party team is not likely IMO.

Brexiteers may be weighed down under a cacaphony of doom, but here is Roger Bootle of the DT calmly making a few points. I think it's a very good article and I hope Mrs May has time to read it !

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/25/10-brexit-canards-need-put-misery/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on June 26, 2017, 04:10:02 PM
Look at her record. Voted Remain now wants hard Brexit. No election then an election to give her a strong mandate. Now in a minority govt. with her party manifesto shattered. Outperformed now at every turn by a previously hapless Jeremy Corbyn. Even her own party colleagues are just waiting it out before ousting her. Next election will not involve her.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on June 26, 2017, 04:34:29 PM
Hi Teess.
''Voted Remain now wants hard Brexit.'' Well you must have inside knowledge . . .
I know she was rumoured to have favoured 'remain' but was bright enough to hold her counsel and then take advantage. Clever Lady.
''No election then an election to give her a strong mandate.'' The Tory Govt. had previously changed the rules so that Parliaments would run a full term.
''Outperformed now at every turn by a previously hapless Jeremy Corbyn.'' Actually Mrs May outperformed Corbyn by 56 seats in the General Election and some 800,000 votes.

You are right that TM is definitely up against it with Brexit and the Tory Party. But wait and see. It's just too easy and empty to accuse such a person of not having a degree of competence. 

Did you read that Roger Bootle article - he's a very practical Guy even though he's an MD. I've enjoyed his articles over the years. His message to TM would be, (I guess), keep calm and carry on !


Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on June 26, 2017, 05:56:45 PM
Now she has promised to give £1bn to N. Ireland in order to garner the votes of a few rabid, homophobic bigots while as per usual the impoverished north east gets nothing
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on June 26, 2017, 07:40:28 PM
Now she has promised to give £1bn to N. Ireland in order to garner the votes of a few rabid, homophobic bigots while as per usual the impoverished north east gets nothing

I hear they speak very highly of you? Seriously, how can you say the NE will get nothing?

And just how do you think Corbyn would form a Government in similar circumstances?. Look at the wheeler dealing that went on with the Tories and Lib Dems as well as the current 'coalition'? How do you think Jezza would cope with having to wheeler deal with more than one party?

You are quick to tarnish everyone with your own rabid sanctimony. Whenever you speak, it's like the pot calling the kettle black.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on June 26, 2017, 10:06:34 PM
An analysis of the governments 2013 infrastructure plan by the Guardian showed that spend per resident in London was £5,426. In the north east the spend per person was £223.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on June 27, 2017, 10:12:57 AM
That's a shocking statistic Teess. I wonder how it fits in with total Govt. expenditure in the N.E. ?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on June 27, 2017, 03:53:59 PM
Here's another one. Annual transport network spend from 2016 shows per resident to be £1,943 in London. In the north east it is £220. As an example I travelled from my home in Teesside to Berwick -upon -Tweed. I left home at 10:15 and at 12 :20 I was still in Darlington , 12 miles away. Everything was on time.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on June 27, 2017, 04:53:09 PM
You can actually find similar transport difficulties in the SE region. Even in London, where I travelled south to north 11 miles to work in West London, if I wanted to travel by public transport, the options weren't good. Either two buses gong through very busy and congested towns and the natural bottleneck of the Thames, or a bus or mainline train including 2/3 tube and train changes, actually going into then coming out of London again, were the options. It wasn't possible in less than an hour and 1.5 hours was more realistic. Even by car, which was my option, could be a nightmare.

When I moved out of London to it's west, my journey to work was 66 miles. If I took the slow train which stopped everywhere, plus with one change of train, the journey took nearly two hours and would end 5 minutes from my office. The fare wasn't unreasonable but the time taken was. If I caught the fast train, I could go direct without stopping to Paddington and then come out again for one stop - easy. Except for the fact that because it went straight into London, the cost was stratospheric! I used my car.

It's also worth remembering that over a 3rd of the UK's population lives in London and the SE. It's also the powerhouse of the UK, so understandably spending on infrastructures would be greater there. But I agree more could be spent on other regions. But I thought the NE was getting an increasing amount and certainly looking at 2016 and 2017 figures on the web, that appears the case.

But importantly, the money going to NI isn't coming from infrastructure plans already announced, as far as I can see.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on June 27, 2017, 05:33:03 PM
So where is the £1bn bribe to the DUP coming from? There is no money for the NHS, public sector workers wages frozen for 5 years yet £1bn is found. Is this the magic money tree?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on June 27, 2017, 10:15:30 PM
Seriously, have a look at the public spending plans. The NHS in in the top three along with pensions. I'd like to think the money has come from foreign aid.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on June 27, 2017, 10:37:45 PM
I know its a lot of money but the UK is below average in the EU in its healthcare spend.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on June 27, 2017, 10:41:05 PM
I've been looking into public spending by region and it's far too complex to pluck figures out of the air in isolation. Another factor not mentioned is size of population. When looking at expenditure by head of population, the NE is well in the mix. When you look at the various stats closely, two pictures emerge. The first is that London and the SE are the only regions that make a surplus from tax collections, thus a justifiable claim of subsiding others. Second, that if Scotland wants 'independence', it will not be able to survive on it's own. It needs the support of the eu. Some 'independence' eh?

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN04033/SN04033.pdf

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/569815/Country_and_Regional_Analysis_November_2016.pdf



Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on June 28, 2017, 08:16:49 AM
those pesky Europeans

EU apparatchiks

these European idiots

the EU tosspots

the Euro bureaucrats


Alfie, those pesky apparatchik idiot tosspot bureaucrats want to fine Google for distorting the market!  >:(

Call Farage to save us.

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-40406542 (http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-40406542)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on June 28, 2017, 10:57:14 AM
Call Farage to save us.

He's already on his way! I suspect the 2nd coming of UKIP will be as well, or a variation on the theme, if as believed, he returns to the fold with the party then seeing it's main backer also returning.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/27/establishment-will-have-seen-nothing-yet-doesnt-tackle-immigration/

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on July 08, 2017, 05:23:17 PM
Trump brings up the issue of a post-Brexit UK/US trade deal again.


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40540340 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40540340)


US President Donald Trump has said he expects a "powerful" trade deal with the UK to be completed "very quickly".

The US president is holding talks with UK Prime Minister Theresa May to discuss a post-Brexit trade deal.

Ahead of their meeting, Mr Trump hailed the "very special relationship" he had developed with Mrs May.
"There is no country that could possibly be closer than our countries," he told reporters.
"We have been working on a trade deal which will be a very, very big deal, a very powerful deal, great for both countries and I think we will have that done very, very quickly."

Sir Christopher Meyer, a former British ambassador to Washington, said Mr Trump's statement of intent was a "very good sign for the future" and would be "useful" to Mrs May.

But Sir Simon Fraser, a former diplomat who served as a permanent under-secretary at the Foreign Office, cast doubt on how soon any trade deal could be reached.

"The point is we can't negotiate with them or anyone else until we've left the European Union.

"And the Americans and others will not negotiate with us until they know what our relationship with the EU is going to be, because the access we have in Europe is hugely important for the advantages that they can get from their relations with us."
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on July 16, 2017, 09:53:11 AM
Latest news on Torygraph channel...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HTSR74rnK8
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on July 16, 2017, 10:41:38 AM
The man is making a fool of himself. He should stick to mowing the lawn.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on July 20, 2017, 07:38:27 PM
Well I'd like to know what you Guys think ?  >:(

I want my UK to leave the EU, even more than ever now, as Italy struggles with no support from the 'lost 27' with thousands of unwanted immigrants arriving monthly, thinking of beloved Austria about to place troops on the border to hold back those same refugees/immigrants from penetrating further into Europe, and Poland, at total odds with the EU sh*tocracy and with their own autonomy in mind, plus pompous unelected ivory tower monsters being delegated to 'negotiate' with the UK. I want no more of this.

Lets go for hard brexit please ! I'm afraid I agree with BJ - go whistle for £90 billion and sell your BMW and Mercedes elsewhere.

The reason the UK needs to LEAVE is IMO, epitomised in what is going on now.
I'm happy that David Davis is ex Royal Marines. He'll need that training.

Anton - what do you think as a Brit ? Tony Blair is irrelevant now.

Happy days.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on July 20, 2017, 08:09:39 PM
I want a soft Brexit or none at all. I want a return to a stronger pound and 53 bt to the pound. I am OK with freedom of movement but would favour big reductions in non-eu immigration. I would veto Turkey joining the EU. The EU is not perfect but best way to change it is from within
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on July 20, 2017, 08:28:22 PM
The EU is not perfect but best way to change it is from within

It has to want to change first. The UK tried and tried again, we were mocked, even though they knew that could lead to brexit, the arrogant conceited twats.

You can't change what doesn't want to change.  I'm sick of the patronising tosh coming for the EU. I find it really sad that they can't even negotiate in private. But, despite all the despotic rhetoric coming from the eu, I am sure agreements will be reached.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on July 20, 2017, 09:12:55 PM
the arrogant conceited twats

I think your vocabulary in this topic, as well as that of other Tories' in the forum, shows all too well who are the arrogant ones.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dereklev on July 21, 2017, 05:12:05 AM
the arrogant conceited twats

I think your vocabulary in this topic, as well as that of other Tories' in the forum, shows all too well who are the arrogant ones.

Why is calling the EU negotiators Twats arrogant?

Twats is a fit and proper word to describe the EU team, as is Twunts :o
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on July 21, 2017, 06:01:45 AM
Teess - you mention Turkey in your post. IMO that's the one EU issue of no concern. Turkey's application is dead in the water due to Pres. Erdogan. That one is over.
We all want a 'soft brexit' - it's the price that's the issue. For me, a max. settlement of £10 billion over 5 years and no continuing ECJ involvement in UK justice.
As for change from within - that would have been nice - but the only change acceptable in 'EU think' is more interference, more control and ever closer Union. Change for the better, didn't happen and can't and won't happen until the Nations wrestle control back from the 'crats' in the Ivory Tower.

Anton - to many, the EU Negotiators seem to be in a world of their own i.e. not only arrogant but supercilious, condescending and out of touch even with their own 27 'lost' remainers. It's to do with Brexit and not IMO about being a Tory or a Labour person.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dereklev on July 21, 2017, 06:25:29 AM

Anton - to many, the EU Negotiators seem to be in a world of their own i.e. not only arrogant but supercilious, condescending and out of touch even with their own 27 'lost' remainers. It's to do with Brexit and not IMO about being a Tory or a Labour person.


Spot in Roger :D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on July 21, 2017, 08:50:40 AM
I think your vocabulary in this topic, as well as that of other Tories' in the forum, shows all too well who are the arrogant ones.

Mate, I come from a working class background. My dad humped coal for a living and my mum was a cleaner. We lived on a Council estate. Not only is it a simple fact that to understand Brexit, you have to be British, but you also need to take a crash course in UK politics and the sociological factors that influence voting in the UK.

I am actually, if I sit anywhere, a slightly right of centre liberal, not lib-dem and you would probably have to look that up to get the meaning. But here's a clue, in a Country the size of the UK, I believe in the mixed economy, not as it was back in the bad old days under union control, I personally experienced that debacle, but as an ideal.

There is no political group that represents my views and I will and have voted for whoever I believe will do best for the Country.

At the moment there isn't a lot of credible choice. Have I read that Vince Cable has just taken over the lib-dems? That's looking to the future, isn't it?

As for arrogance. Just look at everything the EU elite stands for and it's dealings with the Greeks, Italians, the eastern eu block and now on Brexit. It's all laid on a platter for your consumption.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on July 21, 2017, 10:09:20 PM
We all want a 'soft brexit'

Do we? 

it's the price that's the issue.

What would be the cost of the annual payments for staying in the single market and customs union?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on July 23, 2017, 07:07:53 AM
Alfie - maybe an 'amicable' Brexit rather than a 'soft' one. All of us want that at least ? And ideally to include staying in the single market - however as we import much more from the EU than we export, why should there be a price at all ? On those grounds, maybe the 'lost 27' should pay, not the UK !

In the link below, are embedded words from Alex Deane, (often to be heard on Sky News). IMO he talks in a measured and strong way - worth a quick listen . . .

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/831804/Alex-Deane-EU-Brexit-divorce-bill

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on July 23, 2017, 01:48:42 PM
Alfie - maybe an 'amicable' Brexit rather than a 'soft' one. All of us want that at least ? And ideally to include staying in the single market -

Staying in the single market entails freedom of movement for all in the EU, etc. In other words, being in the EU. No, what is better is that we have a trade deal that includes some access to the EU but not in the same way as being a member of the EU. Of course our exit should be amicable, although it appears to me that some in the EU do not want that as they appear to take it very personally.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on July 24, 2017, 05:27:17 AM
Thanks Alfie for clarifying that. Ideally trade within Europe should simply continue as it is and why should that be a problem for the 27 who benefit from it ? Freedom of movement has to be ended - most Brits want to regain control of Immigration.

IMO it's a shame that the EU 'crats are in charge rather than the 27 Nations.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on July 24, 2017, 05:51:22 AM
Grumbles from Germany about the EU 'crats too ?

''Germany’s Free Democrats have demanded a special “Brexit cabinet” in Berlin to safeguard the vital interests of the country, citing growing alarm among industrial and manufacturing companies over the disastrous implications of a failed deal with the UK. The fast-rising party says it will push for an amicable compromise in Brexit talks if it joins the ruling coalition this autumn - as now looks increasingly likely - warning that it would be a fatal error for Europe to humiliate Britain.''

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/23/german-free-market-forces-warn-against-eu-militancy-brexit/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on July 29, 2017, 04:38:10 PM
I want a soft Brexit or none at all.
I am OK with freedom of movement but would favour big reductions in non-eu immigration.
I would veto Turkey joining the EU. The EU is not perfect but best way to change it is from within

That is not Brexit at all. That is staying in the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on July 29, 2017, 05:15:23 PM
Norway is not in the EU but does have access to the single market.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dereklev on July 30, 2017, 07:04:56 AM
Norway is not in the EU but does have access to the single market.

The Eurocrats have ruled out a similar deal for the UK.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on July 30, 2017, 09:46:36 AM
Norway is not in the EU but does have access to the single market.
The Eurocrats have ruled out a similar deal for the UK.

Which is good!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on August 20, 2017, 06:48:31 AM
As we reach the end of summer and the UK prepares for more negotiations on Brexit, Liam Halligan in the DT calms the waters :-

''Ever since the Prime Minister’s Lancaster House speech in January, it has been clear the Government wants to leave the single market. That makes sense. Inside the single market, Britain remains liable for multi-billion pound annual EU pay­ments, while being forced to accept European Court of Justice jurisdic­tion and freedom of movement rules. That isn’t Brexit.''

The 'Lost 27' struggle with competing interests and the EU has been unable in decades of trying, to negotiate any trade deal with the USA, China or any of the top ten World economies.

LH again - ''Striking agreements with China and the US would cover 40pc of the world economy, blowing the EU’s trade deals out the water. And if we can get an agreement with the EU itself, after March 2019 if necessary, Britain will have preferential trading rights with nations covering three fifths of global GDP.''

It'll be interesting to watch what happens !

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/19/ignore-silly-season-brexit-still-track/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on September 01, 2017, 09:57:38 AM
I watched the Davis / Barnier Press Conference yesterday on TV - it seems to me that Davis is doing a good job but there's not much progress so far . . . the EU are used to handing down decisions from the high ground - those days have gone, as far as the UK is concerned.

I thought this was a good piece in the DT :-

EU chiefs seem to think they can force Britain to capitulate by digging their heels in and pointing at the clock as the day it departs from the bloc draws nearer.

"With every passing day we move closer to the date of departure for the UK," Monsieur Barnier opened this afternoon's press conference by warning. But the British Government is preparing for life outside of the EU - if necessary - without a deal in place. It doesn't have to take whatever Brussels deigns to give it
.

''http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/31/michel-barnier-fellow-eurocrats-held-account-dont-like-one-bit/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Coolkorat on September 01, 2017, 03:08:07 PM
It is interesting that "Project Fear" is still running: constant doom and gloom via social media etc. And a whispering campaign for another referendum.

I think Davis and team are playing a clever game; why should the UK show its cards? That the EU is obliged to be transparent is their problem!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on September 01, 2017, 08:25:15 PM
I really believe that the EU side do not want there to be any agreement. They want negotiations to fail so they can use it as an example to other EU countries to dissuade them from also wanting to leave the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on September 02, 2017, 02:39:04 PM
On a lighter note ...  ;D

Sir Humphrey explains Brexit


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFBgQpz_E80
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on September 28, 2017, 09:24:06 PM
Thanks for that bit of 'Sir Humphrey' Alfie.
Magical and not too far from the mark ... ?

On a lighter note, I thought this was a demanding script in the DT :-

''We joined the European Economic Community for practical reasons: we thought it would modernise our economy and help the West to defeat communism. We were wrong, and we won’t make that mistake again. It will become increasingly impossible, as the years pass and Macron and his allies get their way, for anybody to pretend that the EU is merely a “free market” rather than an embryonic state.
Once we leave, that will be it: we will never rejoin.''

Alleluah for that !

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/28/emmanuel-macrons-inspirational-eu-dream-actually-authoritarian/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 04, 2017, 06:02:02 PM
Steven Woolfe, a British MEP, delivers these withering words with a ring of truth about them. . . .

"From Verhofstadt to Juncker, to Barnier and to Tusk, the message is clear: the EU will delay, damage and deny Brexit. When President Tusk says the UK can’t have its cake and eat it, what he actually means is the EU wants its cake, our cake, the morning croissant, afternoon tea and finishing it with taking a pound of Britain’s economic flesh washed down with a glass of subsidised EU Chianti."

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/862104/Brexit-news-UK-Brussels-European-Union-Jean-Claude-Juncker-EU-Britain-video

What do you reckon Guys ? Time for the UK to implement a walk away ?
 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 04, 2017, 10:09:17 PM
What do you reckon Guys ? Time for the UK to implement a walk away ?

I think they perceive the UK as weak and maybe under May as PM it is. She needs to have more presence. She started so well.

I think we should just walk away. Merkel still has more to worry in Germany, like trying to form a Government and as for Spain, well!

Just walk out from the talks leaving a huge hole in eu finances and let them come back to us when they are serious.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on October 05, 2017, 12:58:50 PM
Yet another hapless performance by the worst pm in living memory.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on October 05, 2017, 01:18:57 PM
What do you reckon Guys ? Time for the UK to implement a walk away ?

I think it's too early to walk away but I think we should be prepared and ready to walk away come June next year. The EU has no wish to see the UK do well or to see us part as friends. They want total submission and a weak UK. Stuff 'em.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 05, 2017, 03:34:44 PM
Hope I allowed to make some kind of remark about Brexit without being ridiculed.

There is a huge difference between the opinion/thoughts of politicians and "normal" people IMHO. Who will suffer the most from all of this? For sure not the politicians. I know I belong to the "normal" people (allthough my wife might disagree about me being normal, haha) and I love my freedom. EU was meant as one common market and we Dutch are partly to blame for this concept as we started BeNeLux (Belgium, Netherlands and Luxemburg). The Dutch are called the Chinese of Europe because we like to trade and make money. Saving on import taxes helps a lot. What I and many others do not like is the interference of people like Tusk, Verhofstadt, Juncker and Dhragi in our lives. The Euro should have been implemented with floating currency rates instead of fixed ones. If a country does not do well all other countries are suffering, look at Greede, Italy, Spain and Portugal. As I am not Don Quichote fighting windmills unfortunately I have to accept what those EC loving morons decide. Like the British also citizens of all other Euro countries suffer from the loss in value of our money. Being 71 I have more or less given up on the world as everything is driven by money only nowadays. No more solidarity, no more real effort to make the world better. Instead we seem to have more wars, more conflicts etc.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on October 05, 2017, 04:16:52 PM
The EU is far from perfect. It's handling of the Greece situation was very harsh considering they were partly responsible by allowing them to join the Eurozone when their economy was not ready. The euro project works for the benefit of the Germans. They are disappointingly silent on the disgraceful behaviour of the civil police in Catalonia. However in this world of globalisation and useless world leaders (Trump, May,. Jong un, Rajoy et al) I still think Brexit is a big mistake. The majority of MP's are remainders, the referendum was deeply flawed and unnecessary.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on October 05, 2017, 05:54:12 PM
They are disappointingly silent on the disgraceful behaviour of the civil police in Catalonia

What should they say about it? Police followed their orders. Referendum had been declared unconstitutional and illegal by highest Court unanimous sentence. Don't let biased media reports influence your judgement.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on October 05, 2017, 06:18:17 PM
So you think it's OK for police in riot gear to attack unarmed civilians with their hands in the air, to throw elderly people down a fight of stairs? The Spanish government with its actions have weakened their case.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 05, 2017, 06:55:34 PM
They are disappointingly silent on the disgraceful behaviour of the civil police in Catalonia

What should they say about it? Police followed their orders. Referendum had been declared unconstitutional and illegal by highest Court unanimous sentence. Don't let biased media reports influence your judgement.

Oeps Anton, police/army just following orders? IMHO really depending who and why these orders were given. Franco ordered the attack on Guernica, remember?

Edit: my reply should not be in this topic.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 05, 2017, 10:09:36 PM
Yet another hapless performance by the worst pm in living memory.

No, that was Gordon Brown. Close to being committed.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 15, 2017, 07:32:28 AM
Robert - catching up I just noticed your thoughtful post  5/10. I don't know why you expected ridicule - your post recommended. I was a little surprised to see your view ''unfortunately I have to accept what those EC loving morons decide'' and that does show it's not just the grumpy Brits who feel like that !
In fact many people in each of the lost 27 feel the same.  ;)

Teess - easy to criticise M8 - do you fancy Mrs May's job then ? I think she's doing quite well despite the almost impossible task she faces in these days of news coverage 24/7 and with brutal comment being the civilised norm these days.

Alfie - just watched Sir Humphrey again - wonderful. Yes I agree it's too early to walk away, but we should certainly be planning to do that - how can we shake the lost 27 Leaders to take charge of their Union and bring these monsters in Brussels to heel ? It seems there is NO goodwill on the EU side who would be happy to leave the UK in political rubble in return for Junckers, ''Thanks for the war''.

From today's DT :-

''There can be little doubt that the EU is stringing out the negotiations with a view to piling pressure on the United Kingdom. The longer that discussion of the future relationship is delayed, they undoubtedly calculate, the less time the UK will have to prepare for life outside the EU and the more inclined it will be to agree to a substantial divorce settlement and a diluted Brexit - possibly with continued freedom of movement and British submission to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.''

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/14/uk-has-displayed-conspicuous-goodwill-now-time-european-union/





Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 15, 2017, 10:56:25 AM
Robert - catching up I just noticed your thoughtful post  5/10. I don't know why you expected ridicule - your post recommended. I was a little surprised to see your view ''unfortunately I have to accept what those EC loving morons decide'' and that does show it's not just the grumpy Brits who feel like that !
In fact many people in each of the lost 27 feel the same.  ;)

Teess - easy to criticise M8 - do you fancy Mrs May's job then ? I think she's doing quite well despite the almost impossible task she faces in these days of news coverage 24/7 and with brutal comment being the civilised norm these days.

Alfie - just watched Sir Humphrey again - wonderful. Yes I agree it's too early to walk away, but we should certainly be planning to do that - how can we shake the lost 27 Leaders to take charge of their Union and bring these monsters in Brussels to heel ? It seems there is NO goodwill on the EU side who would be happy to leave the UK in political rubble in return for Junckers, ''Thanks for the war''.

From today's DT :-

''There can be little doubt that the EU is stringing out the negotiations with a view to piling pressure on the United Kingdom. The longer that discussion of the future relationship is delayed, they undoubtedly calculate, the less time the UK will have to prepare for life outside the EU and the more inclined it will be to agree to a substantial divorce settlement and a diluted Brexit - possibly with continued freedom of movement and British submission to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.''

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/14/uk-has-displayed-conspicuous-goodwill-now-time-european-union/

Hi Roger,

If you are surprised about my thoughts about EC politics you might have missed some of my comments on this subject before. IMHO there is a huge difference between the concept of having a United States of Europe versus United States of America. Has to do with mentality of different countries in Europe, their own country first. Introduction of the Euro on fixed exchange rates was the biggest mistake. Due to all the trade in Europe it is convenient to cross Europe in trucks without having to change money all the time. Most people in Europe accept the advantages of less trading rules and regulations but I have been to most countries in Europe and know that local farmers do not like being told by EC what they can do or cannot do.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 17, 2017, 01:59:28 PM
I'm with Roger Bootle in his hopes here :-

''We may be rescued by Jean-Claude Juncker and his merry men, who seem keen not to have a deal – at almost any price. As this becomes clear, it will surely swing public opinion behind the Government’s plans – whatever they are – to prepare for exit without a deal.''

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/15/no-deal-scenario-could-best-outcome-brexit-negotiations/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 22, 2017, 03:12:08 PM
Interesting article in the DT today from Janet Daley :-

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/21/eu-finally-seems-have-realised-not-play-fight/

''it is almost certainly the case that the increasingly aggressive calls from assertive Brexiteers for the UK to walk away – supported by some extremely persuasive argument and evidence for the plausibility of a no-deal future – have scared the living daylights out of European leaders.''

Here's the whole script :-

''Is this hell? We appear to be locked in some horrible recurrent dream in which the same people say the same things again and again in varying tones of voice, but always with the same deadly intransigence. The “negotiations” over our exit from what was supposed to be a fraternal, cooperative, mutually beneficial association is now a hostage crisis in which the ransom cannot even be agreed, let alone met.

The two sides in the British political divide on Brexit are, ironically, in agreement that this process is utterly futile. For the irreconcilable Remain camp, this means only one thing: let’s call it off and stay in – or at least retreat to the safe harbour of a simulacrum of membership. For the tenacious Leave team, it confirms the worst expectations of malign EU intentions, so the only plausible solution is to pull the plug on the entire charade and walk away. Even if both sides are making use of this mess for their own ends, surely they are both right: this is hopeless.

Or is it? By the end of last week, much official effort seemed to be going into producing what Americans call new “optics”. The leaders of Europe’s governments – who have to worry about being re-elected and are therefore not free to give a Juncker‑like shrug over the fate of their own economies – started talking turkey about trade.

At least, they started to talk about talking about it. Not with Britain, of course, just among themselves. But we had already had hints of that: the EU27 was to begin exploring the possibilities that might – maybe, possibly – constitute an arrangement for trading with the UK after it leaves.

This will involve, one may imagine, some pretty heavy-going debate between countries like Sweden, whose main concern is selling us things and where the National Board of Trade is already engaged in drawing up a basis for trading with the UK post-Brexit, and those whose concerns are fiercely ideological, like France, which was the original architect of this metaphysical project.

At some point, they will presumably report back to the UK negotiating team with the conclusions of these internal deliberations – assuming that they are able to reach mutually acceptable conclusions. In the end, it will almost certainly be Germany (when it eventually forms a government) that will call the shots. And that may be good news for the UK (if you think that reaching some sort of agreement is good news) and for the desperately embattled Conservative government.
"Nobody has invoked Article 50 before. Everybody is stumbling in the dark"

It was Angela Merkel who was leading the upbeat chorus after the EU Council summit. She simply would not countenance the idea that Britain would leave without a deal: there was “absolutely no indication” of such a thing, she said, and then added that for British Eurosceptics to urge Theresa May to walk away was “absurd”. Contrary to reports in the UK media, progress was being made step by step. And so on. Whether you believe this or not, the fact that she said it is hugely significant.

In the great EU tradition, everybody followed Germany’s instructions. The European Council’s president, Donald Tusk, tweeted that EU leaders had given the green light to “preparations for the second phase [of negotiations]” and Jean-Claude Juncker, in his predictably back-handed way, agreed: he hated the “no deal” scenario, he said – which was an oddly personal way of putting it.

Only Emmanuel Macron (see reference to France above) seemed adamantly unhelpful, muttering about how much more work still needs to be done on the question of money. On the prospect of no deal, he was relentless: “The UK would be the first to lose in that situation.” (But not the last, he might have added.)

What is the lesson of this sudden outburst of conciliatory noise? That the people who really run the EU – the elected leaders of its member states – have got the upper hand over its unelected, unaccountable pinhead bureaucrats? Or maybe that this business was bound to get serious eventually and that reality is finally breaking through?

Either or both of these things are probably true, but it is almost certainly the case that the increasingly aggressive calls from assertive Brexiteers for the UK to walk away – supported by some extremely persuasive argument and evidence for the plausibility of a no-deal future – have scared the living daylights out of European leaders.

Mrs Merkel may claim that their calls are “absurd”, but if she is even remotely persuaded that they are under serious consideration, she – and her colleagues – will know that this isn’t a play fight any more.

At least for the moment, we must take all this nice talk at face value. The EU really, really loves us. Punishment is not what they have in mind – certainly not. Nor do they wish to make an example of us to dissuade any other malcontents who might get dangerous ideas about self-government.

Presumably even the terrible twins of Brussels, Juncker and Michel Barnier, will now be caught up in the new mood of generosity and fair play. Fine. Let’s go with that. It is precisely the attitude that Mrs May offered in her speech in Florence last month. Indeed, Mrs Merkel’s words appeared to echo Mrs May’s quite pointedly.

In that spirit, the UK negotiating team should step on to the front foot. An immediate unilateral offer of existing rights to all EU citizens living in the UK should be the first move. This would make it morally impossible for the EU not to reciprocate by matching the offer to UK citizens living in Europe.

Then they must give great attention to every word that is uttered by everybody to ensure that we always make an unimpeachable and coherent case for our position: yes, this is about defending the democratic integrity of the nation state – which is a very different thing from nationalism of the sinister sort.

Above all, we understand the difficulties. Nobody has invoked Article 50 before. Everybody is stumbling in the dark. But all our peoples deserve something better than political vanity and recrimination
.''


Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 24, 2017, 06:29:19 AM
We just don't know where negotiations will end up, but for me, this was encouraging :-

''Mrs May updated Parliament on Monday on the progress of Brexit talks following the two-day European Council meeting in Brussels last week, and insisted she had “a degree of confidence” that the two sides would finally open trade talks in December.

However, she made it clear that unless a trade deal was agreed by next summer Britain would have to leave the EU on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms and scrap the proposed two-year transition period.

Mrs May said: “The point of the implementation period is to put in place the practical changes necessary to move to the future partnership. In order to have that you need to know what the future partnership is going to be.”
''

Well done Mrs May !

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/23/theresa-may-issues-fresh-no-deal-threat-leaked-account-claims/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 25, 2017, 06:55:39 AM
DT Editorial today :-

''The EU is acting tough on Brexit once again. Britain must be prepared to walk away''  ;D

''It did not take long for the new spirit of Brexit harmony ushered in by last weekend’s Brussels summit to evaporate. Theresa May returned from that meeting buoyed by the more emollient attitude on show among the leaders of the EU in contrast to the inflexibility of the European Commission negotiators. She told MPs on Monday that she was confident the UK would negotiate a special partnership with “our friends in the European Union”.

But anyone who thought that the hard part of Brexit would be the first stage, rather than the talks to follow over new trading arrangements will have been disabused by events since. First, Mrs May was the target of a hostile briefing to the German newspapers intended to wound even if it has been disowned by the alleged sources.

In the European Parliament yesterday Donald Tusk, the council president, called for the other 27 EU nations to remain united or risk being “defeated” in negotiations. This is the language of confrontation, not attenuation. Moreover, it is not being observed. Manfred Weber, leader of the European People’s Party, the largest group in the parliament, said it would oppose any plan that gave Britain the same benefits outside the EU as it had inside.He regarded the two years from triggering Article 50 as the transition phase and would not favour an implementation period that allowed the UK preferential access to the EU market.

This difference of view needs to be sorted out within the next 12 months because the MEPs have a veto on the eventual agreement. These are straws in the wind. Even if it is not its policy, the Government is right to make preparations for no deal.
''
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on October 25, 2017, 09:59:20 AM
Even if it is not its policy, the Government is right to make preparations for no deal

I agree but if the government stated publicly at this time (or before now) that they were preparing for a no-deal situation, they would be criticised harshly at home for wasting time preparing for no-deal when the government's policy is to get a good deal and most people would prefer a good deal. The government can't win really. Whatever they do, someone will criticise them for it. And the EU side has and will play politics with whatever statement the UK government makes. After T May said she wasn't preparing for a no-deal, someone in the EU (I forget who, Tusk or Barnier likely) said that they (the EU side) were preparing for such an eventuality. I'm sure if T May had said the opposite, th EU side would have said something to indicate bad spirit or the likes. No, Mrs May has to just bite the bullet and get on with it and let history eventually tell its tale, whatever that might be.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 25, 2017, 11:13:17 AM
There is a Dutch proverb what is impossible for me to translate correctly so I tried Google and theresult was:

A wellknown Dutch proverb saying: it is better to stop half way than to persevere in an error. Maybe there is a better English proverb if so please enlighten me.

It is of course up to the British to decide if Brexit is indeed wat the majority wants .... "Sometimes" politicians are chasing their own goals  ;D ;D ;D. Just my 2 pennies thoughts about this issue. Personally I think is better to change from the inside then stand aside.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 25, 2017, 11:22:33 AM
Yes, lots of weasel words from the eu but there now seems something of a difference in opinion within the eu as to how things are going and how they should be progressing. This German MEP yesterday was very critical of Tusk and the eu's stance on the negotiations, and I suspect there are many more like him. (video of his speech is embedded in this beeb report):

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41733429

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 25, 2017, 11:26:23 AM
There is a Dutch proverb what is impossible for me to translate correctly so I tried Google and theresult was:

A wellknown Dutch proverb saying: it is better to stop half way than to persevere in an error. Maybe there is a better English proverb if so please enlighten me.

It is of course up to the British to decide if Brexit is indeed wat the majority wants .... "Sometimes" politicians are chasing their own goals  ;D ;D ;D. Just my 2 pennies thoughts about this issue. Personally I think is better to change from the inside then stand aside.

1. The British have already decided.
2. We have tried to secure change from the inside for many years. We are in the minority and were mocked and scorned.

That is why we are where we are. And now Macron and Juncker are fighting for an increasingly federalised Europe. Good luck with that.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 25, 2017, 12:05:29 PM
There is a Dutch proverb what is impossible for me to translate correctly so I tried Google and theresult was:

A wellknown Dutch proverb saying: it is better to stop half way than to persevere in an error. Maybe there is a better English proverb if so please enlighten me.

It is of course up to the British to decide if Brexit is indeed wat the majority wants .... "Sometimes" politicians are chasing their own goals  ;D ;D ;D. Just my 2 pennies thoughts about this issue. Personally I think is better to change from the inside then stand aside.

1. The British have already decided.
2. We have tried to secure change from the inside for many years. We are in the minority and were mocked and scorned.

That is why we are where we are. And now Macron and Juncker are fighting for an increasingly federalised Europe. Good luck with that.

1. So if there a mistake was made and the majority does not want it then politicians still have to stick to it? That is the thought behind the Dutch proverb.
2. If there was a possibility to check how many citizens of each country would be in favour of a federalised Europe I think you would be surprised to find out resistance to this thought.

Majority only means 51% is pro and 49% is against. That can happen also in EU or do you really think that e.g. we Dutch do agree with all EU says? I for sure do not believe in a federalised Europe but do believe in trade benefits. Bringing more prosperity for all countries in Europe also decrease the need for wars of which Europe (including England) have seen too many in the last century.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on October 25, 2017, 12:30:55 PM
Robert, 33.5 million pople voted in the UK referendum - 72.2% of the electorate. A high turnout by UK standards. One and a quarter million more people voted to leave the EU than to remain in the EU. The government is obliged to follow through with that vote. If the UK government were to go against that vote, the UK would be in a much worse place than it is at the moment. It is unthinkable for them to do anything else but proceed with Brexit. That's the reality in the UK.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 25, 2017, 01:12:21 PM
Robert, 33.5 million pople voted in the UK referendum - 72.2% of the electorate. A high turnout by UK standards. One and a quarter million more people voted to leave the EU than to remain in the EU. The government is obliged to follow through with that vote. If the UK government were to go against that vote, the UK would be in a much worse place than it is at the moment. It is unthinkable for them to do anything else but proceed with Brexit. That's the reality in the UK.

Hi Alfie,

I can understand that but did history not teach us that sometimes the electorate made some huge mistakes? Maybe votes were done in a certain kind of mindsetting influenced by the media? At least to me it was a huge surprise that the British voted to leave the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 25, 2017, 01:52:42 PM
Hi Robert - from an earlier post of yours - ''unfortunately I have to accept what those EC loving morons decide''. Well we in the UK don't have to accept what these 'morons' say. And btw - you sound less than happy with the 'EC' yourself.

You are in good Company - Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain (P.I.G.S.) suffer economic strangulation under the Euro's rule while Poland and Hungary have running feuds over EU interference. Austria's newly elected Government is scornful of Immigration policies and has Eurosceptic elements.

France no longer under the spell of Macron, will struggle to remain stable IMO while Mrs Merkel in Germany, has to accommodate Immigration dissenters inside her new Govt. somehow.

The EU has been trying to negotiate a Trade Agreement with Canada for 7 years and can't conclude it. The UK will do better on it's own. Much better.

The UK asked for EU help but the EU's obdurate response actually triggered the Referendum.

It's no mistake. The UK is getting out and with all due respect, Halleluah for that ! And you have no grounds to say it's a mistake - time only will tell. As for the media - that circus worked both ways in the Referendum.

It's easy for Jeremy Corbyn and anyone else to mock the state of negotiations. Easy for anyone to make cheap shots. But whatever rifts there are in the UK Parliament and Parties over Brexit, Mrs May's Government is a model of stability compared to the warring factions amongst the EU Negotiators themselves and evenmoreso, in the lost 27.

IMHO.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 25, 2017, 02:39:43 PM
Hi Roger,

I do have my objections against many EU plans, I even specified some in my earlier post so will not repeat them. But I do believe EU made Europe safer to live in. I also said maybe mistake, not for sure and like you said time will tell. The world is being ruled by money only, look at what happened with some valuta traders. You mention amongst other countries Greece. Their politicians pictured some completely different regarding finances only to enter EU. Look where that brought us all in Europe. Why are so many Polish people work outside Poland? I still remember 70 baht to the pound and 51 baht to the Euro. The interest is being held at a low rate otherwise more countries would be bankrupt. Anyway I am too old to even think I can change things. Just wanted to give my personal opinion on this matter.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 25, 2017, 03:42:06 PM
I do actually understand where you are coming from Robert.

I am one of many that as a very young man - in fact my first ever vote - put my cross on a ballot to remain in Europe. Then, that was all the things you talked about - good trade deals and better relations between European Countries.

Now, there is a huge bureaucracy with 5 presidents, nations tearing themselves apart, terrible debt, huge youth unemployment across the Southern states and one of those presidents stating the eu must not be defeated, as if they are at war with the UK.

Why couldn't they just leave things alone?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 25, 2017, 04:12:18 PM
Thanks Caller for understanding what I mean. Like many things the idea was good but I agree EU goes to far now. Twenty seven countries differ to much do get ever united like those politicians think. Another example if I may? After WWII the United Nations were formed and see what that brought us. Wars and more wars because people are greedy and want more money, more power etc.  I think the world has gone crazy and really fear for the future of our children and grandchildren.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 25, 2017, 06:22:15 PM
Thanks Robert and it's good to hear your view from 'mainland' Europe anyway.
Whilst there is an increasing number of difficult situations around the World, I really don't think there is an increased risk of war in Europe as a result of Brexit. But just maybe - Mrs May and Juncker will be fighting with handbags at dawn !

I think the UK must be determined that Brexit does not turn out to be a mistake in due course - and that may well mean a 'no deal' scenario with the UK walking.

ATB

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 25, 2017, 06:31:45 PM
Thanks Robert and it's good to hear your view from 'mainland' Europe anyway.
Whilst there is an increasing number of difficult situations around the World, I really don't think there is an increased risk of war in Europe as a result of Brexit. But just maybe - Mrs May and Juncker will be fighting with handbags at dawn !

I think the UK must be determined that Brexit does not turn out to be a mistake in due course - and that may well mean a 'no deal' scenario with the UK walking.

ATB

Hi Roger,

I do not think of wars in Europe but conflicts outside Europe also bring attacks/terror to Europe. Anyway I think I made my personal view about EU clear now. Will see what the future brings.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Pompui on October 25, 2017, 07:50:45 PM
This from Mr. Bloomberg

Michael Bloomberg says Brexit is the most stupid thing any country has ever done… apart from elect Donald Trump.

The media mogul and former New York mayor said the UK’s decision to leave the EU is the ‘single stupidest thing any country has ever done’, apart from Mr Trump’s election as US president.

The newspaper said Mr Bloomberg initially made the remarks at a technology conference in Boston two weeks ago. He was in London this week to open a new European headquarters for his media empire.

He said ‘maybe I wouldn’t have’ opened a HQ in London if he had known the UK was going to quit the European Union.

‘My former wife was a Brit, my daughters have British passports, so we love England – it’s the father of our country, I suppose,’ Mr Bloomberg told the Guardian.

‘But what they are doing is not good and there is no easy way to get out of it because if they don’t pay a penalty, everyone else would drop out. So they can’t get as good of a deal as they had before.”

‘I did say that I thought it was the single stupidest thing any country has ever done but then we Trumped it.’

Mr Bloomberg, 75, said ‘it is really hard to understand why a country that was doing so well wanted to ruin it’ with the Brexit vote.

The Guardian said that during the HUBweek conference in Boston, Mr Bloomberg warned that workers at his financial media company had asked to leave the UK and the US because they feel those countries are no longer welcoming to immigrants.

He added: ‘We are opening a brand new European headquarters in London – two big, expensive buildings. Would I have done it if I knew they were going to drop out?

‘I’ve had some thoughts that maybe I wouldn’t have, but we are there, we are going to be very happy.’

Mr Bloomberg’s company employs 4,000 people in the UK and 20,000 worldwide.

‘One of the things that is hurting us both in the United States and in the UK is that we have employees, not a lot but some, who are starting to say: “I don’t want to work here – can we transfer to some place else? This country doesn’t like immigrants”.

‘All this talk in Washington – words have consequences. Whether we change the immigration laws or not, there is general feeling around the world that America is no longer an open, welcoming place and a lot of people don’t want to go there, and the same thing is happening in the UK because of Brexit.’

But if Mr Bloomberg says Brexit was a ‘stupid’ decision, recent polling doesn’t indicate that many people regret making it.

A poll at the weekend by Opinium showed that both Leave and Remain voters largely stand by their respective choices.

While 49% of people in the UK disapprove of prime minister Theresa May’s handling of Brexit, but 88% of Leavers say they would vote the same way if given the chance.

Of the Remainers, 91% say they would vote the same way again if another referendum was held.

But a third of voters say they are more pessimistic about Brexit than they were at the time of the referendum in June 2016, while only a fifth think the British government will secure a satisfactory deal with the EU.

Among Leave voters, 62% say the UK should leave the EU if a deal cannot be brokered.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on October 25, 2017, 08:03:16 PM
^ No problem. That's his opinion. My opinion is that Michael Bloomberg is the single stupidest person in the world, apart from Mr Trump. So there.  :D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 25, 2017, 09:26:39 PM
Who is he?

Seems he thinks everyone is stupid.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on October 26, 2017, 12:30:51 AM
Quote
The media mogul and former New York mayor said the UK’s decision to leave the EU is the 'single stupidest thing any country has ever done', apart from Mr Trump's election as US president.


Because what is happening in America and what is happening in Britain are entwined. Brexit and Trump are entwined. The Trump administration’s links to Russia and Britain are entwined.


Source - The Guardian 07.07.2017 (The great British Brexit robbery: how our democracy was hijacked) (https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/07/the-great-british-brexit-robbery-hijacked-democracy)





See also (at 2:45):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4sLMwdpF9U


DISCLAIMER I don't intend this post as a critic to the UK in general or as an offence to anybody in this forum
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 26, 2017, 01:30:34 AM
Anton, that Guardian article is sensationalist twaddle and is old news. She wasn't the first to raise this. You can find interviews with the guy that runs the company the out campaign used. It was all known at the time and wasn't hidden. The reporters work is all of that ilk.

What I hate about all this is the lack of respect shown by reporters like this lady to ordinary people, who are perfectly capable of weighing up the facts and making their mind up based on their own experiences. To listen to them talk, because their side didn't win, you would have thought everyone voting for Brexit were brain dead zombies being led to a false nirvana. Not a nice way to talk about James Dyson and other senior industrial figures who support Brexit.

It's just raking up old ground and for once, the UK establishment lost, as did the eu. They just couldn't imagine the out vote would win. Their campaign was built around the negatives of leaving rather than the benefits of staying in and that really isn't very convincing.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 02, 2017, 03:37:41 PM
For those who would like to see a rerun of the Brexit Referendum, here is William Hague's canny reply on how he would vote, in the event of one being held :-

The former Conservative leader, who voted to Remain in the EU referendum in 2016, was quizzed over how he would vote in a second Brexit vote.

Lord Hague delivered a brilliant response after asked on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

He said: “Well, first of all, I would vote not to have another referendum. I think it would be really the most divisive thing you could do. I would be more likely actually to vote to Leave because I don’t think a country can go round in circles. You cannot be leaving the EU in 2016 and Remaining in it in 201
8.''

Courtesy of the DX who presumably quote accurately sometimes  . . .
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on November 03, 2017, 10:49:07 PM
^ Yes. I read a similar thing in a Beeb article. I agree with him. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 17, 2017, 07:55:08 AM
After Brexit - yes after Brexit - the EU will have a lot of problems without the UK's contribution.
I wonder how it will work out for them ?  ???

Pasted from the DT today - one extract :-

''Tackling this monster will pit Germany against France. The CAP has long been described sotto voce in EU as a "reparations settlement" for the Second War War, a vast mechanism of transfer from German taxpayers to French farmers, later extended to Spanish, Polish, and Romanian farmers. It is clearly an anachronism.

One of the Commission scenarios for regional policy suggests that the EU should continue funding at the current level despite loss of the British revenues but this would require much bigger net contributions from the northern states. They are in no mood to pay.

“If the EU shrinks, and there are fewer funds available, the EU budget needs to be shrunk accordingly,” said Jens Spahn, the German state-secretary for finance. The Dutch are even more militant.

Brexit is hitting just as the EU commits to a string of costly ventures, including a new military arm to free itself from US tutelage. Critics warn that it will duplicate NATO and create a fresh bureaucracy. There are also promises of funding for Africa to treat the migrant crisis at source. All this is set against a backdrop of vaulting EU liabilities ("reste a liquider") that have risen to €239bn and are clearly out of control
.''

The sooner OUT the better IMO. Roll on the day !
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 20, 2017, 06:55:35 AM
The following extracts are from different DX articles - we know where they stand !
But the points are more or less factual and show just a few of the myriad problems of the lost 27.

The EU should face up to it's problems and adjust to their own realities whilst facilitating the exit of the UK. Regarding Merkel's inability to form a Govt. after 2 months - if that had happened in the UK can you imagine the pressure that Mrs May would have been under ?

The UK is well advised IMO to leave this lot and their new Army behind asap.
Roll on the day.

DX
''Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU), the pro-business FDP and the Green party have been holding coalition talks. The country has been without a Government for almost two months after the general election on September 24 produced a hung parliament.''

DX
''THE EU will be “insolvent” if Britain leaves without a trade deal, a leading Brexiteer has predicted.
As pressure mounted on the Prime Minister to break the deadlock in Brexit talks by handing billions to Brussels, Jacob Rees-Mogg urged Theresa May to hold firm. She should not be “blackmailed” into paying a huge divorce bill to the bloc he said. Mr Rees-Mogg insisted that the UK’s negotiating position was much stronger than the EU’s. He said: “If we say that we are not continuing to contribute without a deal to the last 21 months of the multi-annual financial framework then the EU has a huge hole in its budget – it has no legal ability to borrow and it is effectively insolvent for that period.''

DX
''Emmanuel Macron, who was lauded by the EU elite as the saviour of the European project, is struggling to maintain his grip on power just a few months into his reign.'' This week the French President faced a mass revolt of 100 party members after they criticised his "broken promises and trust". Following this, furious protesters took to the streets yesterday afternoon in an anti-Macron rally for the fifth consecutive day. Anti-Macron protesters confronted dozens of police while marching on the Elysee Palace in Paris, with a number of banks and businesses vandalised.''

The UK has plenty of problems too but !  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: enrico on November 20, 2017, 08:51:24 AM
BREXIT PREDICTIONS ?    first of all i am not a psychic ,,or a clairvoyant,,nor do i have a crystal ball,, ( i dont believe in any of that.) but i  try to be logical ? a few months ago i did predict on this forum, that both teresa may P.M. and philip hammond would both be gone, also that the U.K. would walk away from the E.U. and the thai bhat would be up around 50 bhat ? and it would all happen by XMAS 2017    HOLD TIGHT  ??            i also told my drinking pals at the ram, on quiz night about 2 years ago, that the malaysia flight  MH 370 that went missing in 2014 ? i said to them, i dont know why but i keep on getting thoughts that it went down west of darwin, some where near to the ashmore reef,, only time will tell ?      i will also predict civil disobedience on the streets of the U.K. if there is a cock up over brexit.  is a prediction the same as a opinion, just a thought   ha ha       E.F.M.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 20, 2017, 09:50:43 AM
The EU is morally and financially bankrupt and there is still a fair chance the Eurozone might not survive, especially with ECB support of Italian banks coming to an end.

However, irrespective of that, the UK needs a strong Europe and it will screw everything for everyone if it fails to survive. Confidence is brittle and Merkel, however repugnant she is, is needed to provide the leadership the EU needs. Because there will be a huge vacuum and massive dissent without her. There is already much resentment amongst some member states about Germany's ascendency, but they in reality, control the purse strings. A weak German Government could well affect what she or another leader can do on the European stage and another German election will fray everyone's nerves.

But I'm with Dyson and Varoufakis, there is no point continuing with the negotiations, the EU is a crooked cartel and has no interest in anything but screwing us to the ground. Let's just walk away and see what they do.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 20, 2017, 01:20:27 PM
Enrico :-
1. May and Hammond out ? I don't think so but still 5 weeks to go.
2. UK to walk away from 'Negotiations' with the EU ? A small chance of that IMO.
3. Baht 50 to the £1. NO way NO way unfortunately.
Did you take any wagers on those Xmas predictions ? As for MH370 who knows ?

Caller - in a new Election in Germany, will the voters relent and give Merkel a larger vote ?
The anti-Immigration Parties will surely hold their position and if Merkel doesn't do better - she'll have to stand down I guess ? It looks intractable atm.
(I dread to think what Teess' conclusion would have been if Mrs May had faced the same).

I agree with you - the UK should walk away - if we bend and give the EU more £ they'll just stick at the next hurdle and then the next. The EU is not negotiating sincerely IMO.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 21, 2017, 05:47:03 AM
Comments from Andrew Evans-Pritchard in the DT today - there are serious changes afoot in Germany - the uncertainty is not likely to help the UK reach a soft Brexit :-

''The last time Germany proved unable to form a government was under the Weimar Republic. We will not see a repeat of the Thirties this time, but the failure of coalition talks after two months of deadlock is no trivial matter either.

The country faces a constitutional crisis. There is no clear-cut legal mechanism for snap elections. A fresh vote is unlikely to resolve the impasse in any case since the fragmentation of the Bundestag may well be even greater.

Opinion polls suggest that minor parties in various states of populist or ideological revolt – above all the hard-Right Alternative fur Deutschland – will make further gains. "It is an unprecedented situation in the history of the Federal Republic," said president Frank-Walter Steinmeier. 
 
With hindsight the election in September is taking on much greater significance than widely thought at the time: it marked the end of Germany’s post-war order, the happy era of moderation and the dominance two great incumbent volksparteien.
''

The long article concludes on an interesting note :-

''There is a view that Germany is the real problem for Britain in the great showdown over Brexit since the whole structure of the single market, the euro, and the EU regulatory regime, has worked so well to its advantage. Europeanist moral rhetoric is all too often a mask for German power. The country has the greatest strategic stake in preserving the EU status quo.

“They always talk about European interests when they really mean German interests,” said Gisela Stuart, head of Change Britain and herself Bavarian-born.

It was Germany and France that took the toughest line before the last EU summit in October, overruling Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier when he called for compromise.  “The commission is more technically pragmatic and in an odd way it may be easier to reach a deal if left to them,” she said.

Stranger things have happened
.''

Interesting times methinks. Happy to paste the whole thing if anyone wants. Nice day all.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/11/20/germany-pays-political-price-leaving-poor-behind/

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 21, 2017, 09:57:40 AM
I read that article with interest as well, although I have grown a bit wary of AEP's views, albeit he is always an enjoyable read.

I think a lot of pressure will now be placed on the FDP to return to the negotiating table, it will be interesting to see if they succumb and what, if any concessions they will get if they do?

The obnoxious EU savant Schulz of the SDP has now twice said no to continuing with the 'grand coalition', but again, could pressure + concessions mean he will do an about face for 'the good of the country'? His own personal views and those of his party re: greater eu integration seem most out of sync with the German public - how will they fare if another election is held?

Either way, all scenarios will leave Merkel and her party weaker. Would any party dare to suggest they can do a deal, but not with Merkel at the helm? Will Merkels own party now decide she is too toxic to remain party leader - I personally doubt that one.

Will the right wing AfD actually increase their vote in another election, or have they already had their day? I suspect the latter.

Will the German people just provide a repeat of the current results and what happens then? Or will they vote more tactically next time to break the impasse? I suspect they will.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on November 21, 2017, 09:41:07 PM
We will now have a short interval for a bit of Brexit frivolity.

Theresa May and the Holy Grail. :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luTHYeuFayI
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 22, 2017, 02:43:27 PM
Thanks Alfie - that was great !  ;D Had a good laugh.
Now back to work :-

From Gisela Stuart in the DT:-

The collapse of Angela Merkel's coalition shows her dream of a united Europe is falling apart

''A new sensation is coursing through the German body politic: panic. It has been brewing since September’s dramatic election result, which saw Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU party much diminished, and the Right-wing Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) capture 94 parliamentary seats. Naturally, Chancellor Merkel did what she always does when things get tough – reassure her people “das schaffen wir” – we can do this.

Not this time. Her attempts to form a coalition have unexpectedly collapsed and Germany is in turmoil. I have no doubt the Federal Republic will find a short-term solution. It has a functioning government and while this is inconvenient for Brexit talks, it’s all manageable. But it does raise wider issues about consensus, democratic legitimacy and the future of the EU. We are talking tectonic plates here, not just local difficulties.

Before we had a single currency it was perfectly possible to talk about a two-speed Europe, but there has never been a currency union without a political union. With its dream of creating a supranational identity, replacing ideology with a bureaucratic promise of a better tomorrow and becoming a significant global player, the EU has over-stretched itself.
 
Like it or not, to have a functioning single currency you need some basic things such as a single minister of economy, the ability to transfer debts and enforcement mechanisms. Not that the superstate is simply economic.

Last week, 23 EU members signed a defence pact to increase military cooperation. Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron sketches out his plans for a refounding of the European project, Jean-Claude Juncker delivers aspirational speeches, and there are suggestions that the European Parliament seats vacated by departing British MEPs be given to members elected from a pan-European list.

Politicians may have stopped talking about a United States of Europe, but all their actions point to one. There is just one problem: the voters aren’t with them – not even, as the failure to form a government has shown, in Germany. And in a democracy, that is a fatal flaw. The failure of the German coalition negotiations reflects the deeper fracture of democratic consent apparent across the EU.

Every European election I’ve ever been involved in has been decided on national issues fought by national political parties. We have no pan-European political parties and no European demos. The European constitution was rejected by voters first in France and then in the Netherlands.

The UK was promised a referendum by all three political parties in 2005, only for the promise to be ditched after the rehashed constitution emerged as the Lisbon Treaty. Having learnt the lesson that asking the people is a dangerous thing, France, the Netherlands and the UK passed the treaty by parliamentary procedures. The rise of Eurosceptic parties should come as no surprise.

What loyalty do the people and governments of the EU27 have to Brussels’ fetish superstate project? Poland and Hungary may hope to profit from EU membership, but they show no great eagerness to comply with rules and obligations. And while German politicians are reluctant to talk about “German interests”, in Germany you see border controls when coming from Austria.

Nor is there appetite for tax increases to make up for the funds lost when the EU’s second largest net contributor – Britain – leaves. Talk of transfer payments to Greece or any other euro country that may run into trouble is a complete no no. Indeed, objections to debt mutualisation were one of the reasons German coalition talks failed.

The reality is that Germany, like other European nations, still puts her own interests above EU interests, because democracies require consent. If eurozone countries want a superstate they must spell out what that means – fiscal transfers and all – to their voters. And if the voters say no, act on that.

Currently EU members like to fudge things, and if voters disagree they are tempted to “dissolve the people and elect another one”, as Bertolt Brecht said. Heeding people’s wishes is a far better way forward, and for the EU that may mean shelving its grandiose superstate dream and accepting the reality of doing less. For if Angela Merkel can’t sell the dream, who can?
''

Interesting times . . .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/21/collapse-angela-merkels-coalition-shows-dream-united-europe/


Title: Re: Brexit. Brexit made simple..........
Post by: KiwiCanadian on November 22, 2017, 05:32:33 PM
Subject: Brexit made simple..........

Dave Davis is at the golf club returning his locker key when Mr Barnier, the membership secretary sees him.
"Hello Mr Davis", says Mr Barnier. "I'm sorry to hear you are no longer renewing your club membership, if you would like to come to my office we can settle your account".
"I have settled my bar bill" says Mr Davis.
"Ah yes Mr Davis", says Mr Barnier, "but there are other matters that need settlement"
 
In Mr Barnier’s office –
 
Mr Davis explains that he has settled his bar bill so wonders what else he can possibly owe the Golf Club?
"Well Mr Davis" begins Mr Barnier, "you did agree to buy one of our Club Jackets".
"Yes" agrees Mr Davis "I did agree to buy a jacket but I haven't received it yet". "As soon as you supply the jacket I will send you a cheque for the full amount".
"That will not be possible" explains Mr Barnier. "As you are no longer a club member you will not be entitled to buy one of our jackets"!
"But you still want me to pay for it" exclaims Mr Davis.
"Yes" says Mr Barnier, "That will be £500 for the jacket.
 
"There is also your bar bill".
"But I've already settled my bar bill" says Mr Davis. "Yes" says Mr Barnier, "but as you can appreciate, we need to place our orders from the Brewery in advance to ensure our bar is properly stocked".. "You regularly used to spend at least £50 a week in the bar so we have placed orders with the brewery accordingly for the coming year". "You therefore owe us £2600 for the year".
"Will you still allow me to have these drinks?" asks Mr Davis. "No of course not Mr Davis". "You are no longer a club member!" says Mr Barnier.
 
"Next is your restaurant bill" continues Mr Barnier. "In the same manner we have to make arrangements in advance with our catering suppliers". "Your average restaurant bill was in the order of £300 a month, so we'll require payment of £3600 for the next year". "I don't suppose you'll be letting me have these meals either" asks Mr Davis. "No, of course not" says an irritated Mr Barnier, "you are no longer a club member!"
 
"Then of course" Mr Barnier continues, "there are repairs to the clubhouse roof".
"Clubhouse roof" exclaims Mr Davis, "What's that got to do with me?"
"Well it still needs to be repaired and the builders are coming in next week", your share of the bill is £2000".
"I see" says Mr Davis, "anything else?".

"Now you mention it" says Mr Barnier, "there is Fred the Barman's pension". "We would like you to pay £5 a week towards Fred's pension when he retires next month". "He's not well you know so I doubt we'll need to ask you for payment for longer than about five years, so £1300 should do it".
 
"This brings your total bill to £10,000" says Mr Barnier.
 
"Let me get this straight" says Mr Davis, "you want me to pay £500 for a jacket you won't let me have, £2600 for beverages you won't let me drink and £3600 for food you won't let me eat, all under a roof I won't be allowed under and not served by a bloke who's going to retire next month!"
 
"Yes, it's all perfectly clear and quite reasonable" says Mr Barnier.
 
"P--s off!" says Mr Davis

Now we understand what Brexit is all about!!!!!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on November 22, 2017, 06:10:21 PM

Quote
Subject: Brexit made simple

Great explanation  ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on November 22, 2017, 07:32:41 PM
IMHO little bit too simple but think pro-Brexit people do not agree. If I may another example: suppose 28 persons live in the same building and have all agreed to fix the roof. Order has been done and work will start next year but one of the tenants decides to pull out so the total costs have to be paid for by 27. For the EU plans are made for years ahead so in case of one of the countries pulls out this would mean financial consequences for the remaining countries. I think a good accountant should be able to find out what UK does not receive in the years to come and for what amount they signed up being a member. Maybe UK would even get money back instead of paying! It cannot be a one side calculation only, neither from the UK and neither from the EU. Look for the breakeven point somewhere.

Furthermore I would like to simplify the too much money costing Euro Parlement. Moving between Brussels and Strassbourg is ridiculous. I have said it before that I am not a great fan of the EU in its present form. Working together on good trade deals (like buying army/navy/airforce equipment together) goes far enough for me. Cannot understand why some EU politicians think a United States of Europe will happen as too many nationalists in all countries concerned are against.

Robert (from The Netherlands)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 02, 2017, 05:14:49 AM
I saw this at the end of a DX article today - ''Chris Grayling also threw his support behind coughing up billions to Brussels, calling it the “price” of “trading freely” with the 27-member superstate.''

BUT, as we import E60 billion more FROM the EU than we export to them
                                                                      - shouldn't the EU be paying US ?

There's funny Tube on this link if you can open it . . .
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/887038/Brexit-news-UK-European-Union-countries-BBC-EU-news-Michel-Barnier-Theresa-May
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 05, 2017, 08:33:17 AM
I've just been listening to 'The World Tonight' - the issue of the N.Ireland border looks to be intractable. 100%.

The D.U.P. in N. Ireland say they will accept NO 'regulatory divergencies'.   ::)
The Irish Government INSIST on having 'regulatory divergencies'.   ???

The Scots, Welsh and London lobbies want the same 'regulatory divergence' as N. Ireland, if there should transpire to be any.   :o

If anyone thinks this is easy, please get on a plane and tell Theresa May the answer !

This difficulty is to be followed by :-

ECJ ruling over UK Courts ? . . this might have been accepted for a 'transitional' 2 years for the sake of getting a deal, but thereafter - NO. 100%.

Trade deals. We import E60 billion more FROM the EU than we export to them so you think it would be easy. But it won't. Each one of the lost 27 will try to impose restrictions or veto any format that might affect them when a 'soon to be free UK' starts to make future trade deals outside the EU.

*          *          *

How does this turn out ?

Just MHO but a brave effort from the tireless and competent Theresa May will hit the rocks and she will step down. The Tory Party don't really accept the proposed £ 'settlement' and the ECJ red line is as intractable as the N.Ireland border issue. Jacob Rees-Mogg becomes P.M. We get hard brexit and alleluah for that !

Or the Government falls and we get an early General Election. The Tories romp home !

The EU have so many problems of their own, they have to 'screw' the UK to survive.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on December 05, 2017, 10:01:33 AM
May was a fool if she ever thought she could get away with what was being proposed. Not only the DUP would object, but most of her cabinet.

She needs to wake up, smell the roses and stop seeking to appease.

Let the eu come to us with their solution rather than us seeking compromise all the time. We and she has to go on the front foot and she appears to have learnt nothing from the experiences of others who have tried to negotiate with this undemocratic, almost criminal cartel of a behemoth!

She should stay as pm but pass over the mantel of leading the negotiations to someone else, either Davis or Johnson. We need to stop being 'terribly British' about this, that's what's going to be needed after Brexit, so let's start now.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 05, 2017, 10:40:02 AM
Well said Caller.

I am concerned - the UK is trying so hard to negotiate with the 'behemoth' as you put it so aptly, that so much time and political energy has been consumed already. Yet there is NO real chance of 'negotiating' an Exit in a form beneficial to us.

Time to get out - being firm but as friendly as possible. Time to re-energise and sort out the future, unencumbered by the EU monster !

Yes I'm sitting on the fence really.  ;) GLA,

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 05, 2017, 11:57:56 AM

Right to the point - a cartoon from Matt on the DT front page right here :-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/  ;D

And an interesting review -  ''Theresa May's smoke and mirrors Brexit gambit didn't even last an afternoon - it's not difficult to see why''.  Peter Foster Europe Editor

''After 18 months of phoney war - of talking, positioning and negotiating behind the scenes - the rickety craft of Theresa May’s Brexit strategy briefly took flight yesterday, and then promptly nose-dived back to earth. Within hours of Ireland’s state broadcaster reporting that Mrs May had agreed that the UK would ensure “continued regulatory alignment” between Northern Ireland and the EU, political gravity had taken over. If the game of leaking the compromise was to railroad Mrs May into signing off on the deal at her lunch with Jean-Claude Juncker, it backfired spectacularly, exposing this most carefully worded of texts to more scrutiny that it could bear.
 
Wrapped up in the language was a subtle compromise that officials had worked on for the best part of a month, and tried to be all things, to all parties. The UK had not been forced to become a rule-taker by agreeing to Ireland’s initial demand for “no regulatory divergence”, instead it was electing to use new-found freedoms after Brexit to maintain convergence.

To Dublin the compromise gave clear reassurance that Northern Ireland would not diverge, obviating the need for a return to a hard border, while simultaneously giving Arlene Foster’s Democratic Unionists a promise that the “alignment” would only be in the sectors that were relevant to the Good Friday Agreement. It was at this moment that Brexit’s immutable logic took over, and inexorably over the course of the next few hours began to unravel the deal.

Arlene Foster was emphatic that Northern Ireland must not be treated differently from any other part of the United Kingdom. The North, she said, could not become a regulatory exclave of the Republic, or the EU itself. But how then to square Mrs Foster’s demand for equality, with the idea that Northern Ireland was apparently being granted a soft Brexit that seemed to it part of the EU’s single market and customs union in all but name?

Either Northern Ireland was being treated differently - which would imply an east-west border to monitor mainland Britain’s divergent trade policy after Brexit - or, contrary to everything we have been told by Mrs May, the UK was not diverging at all? It could not be both.

In trying to placate the DUP, Downing Street signalled that Mrs May was signing up to “regulatory alignment” for the whole of the UK but only in those areas that impacted the Irish border question - principally agriculture and electricity. But there lies the rub. If that is the case - and there are some 140 areas that have reportedly been identified as crucial north-south cooperation in Ireland - how free, really, would the UK be to diverge with Liam Fox’s much-vaunted independent trade policy?

EU officials are privately very clear that the ‘fudge’ on Ireland leaves little room for manoeuvre. The level of regulatory convergence required to avoid a hard border - and the east-west border that implies - is inescapable. So either Mrs May was signing up the UK to vast swathes of convergence with the EU - something Boris Johnson and free-trading Brexiteers have explicitly ruled out - or she was selling her DUP partners down the river with false promises that they would be treated equally.

Clearly Mrs May had hoped that the reality of these conflicting positions could survive unnoticed at least until the EU had granted ‘sufficient progress’ at the European Council in 10 days time, and she could claim a pre-Christmas victory at the end of a disastrous year. In the event, her gambit did not survive the afternoon. Such are the political horizons of a prime minister whose cabinet has not even held a substantive discussion on the shape of the UK’s future relationship with the EU. On today’s showing it is not difficult to see why.
''

History unfolding and all good fun to watch. ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on December 05, 2017, 06:58:51 PM
There is no negotiating with this bunch of liars and cheats.

Ireland must have forgotten how they were sacrificed to spare the Eurozone by the cartel to protect French and German banks who had over extended in America? That's the Europe they are now supporting. 

They must have forgotten or indeed hated the fact that the Queens shilling was used to bail them out, at far more an advantageous rate than the technocrats of Europe were prepared to offer. Why was that?

You know, that band of brothers that all the eurozone nations are, supporting one another and all that, apart from the fact the then German finance minister and his henchmen were running the show and wanted to make an example of those pesky Countries that had got it all wrong, aided and abetted by German banks throwing money around like confetti, that were thus bailed out by Irish taxpayers.

Bernie Ahern has it right. The trade between the north and south of Ireland is miniscule, tiny, it hardly makes a dent in the economy, so just ignore it, pretend it isn't there and all is well. That's the Irish way and it has served them well up till now. Not any longer it seems.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 07, 2017, 08:38:52 AM
As the UK faces 'political exhaustion' in pursuance of Brexit - I have had thoughts that will amuse Teess and maybe others. I think Theresa May should step down - mainly because a change of direction is needed and not because she is 'weak' or 'incompetent'. The task is just too great and it will take the enrgy of more than one Leader IMO. TM is worn out and on Monday, after the DUP glitch, she looked very wobbly.

As Caller says, ''There is no negotiating with this bunch of liars and cheats.''

In the DT today in an article headlined, ''Britain almost has to fight its way out of the EU colonial 'empire', A Evans Pritchard quotes a Belgian historian, ''“Life in Europe in 2017 is resembling more and more what it was like under colonial administration. We are subjected to an invisible administration that shapes our destiny down to the tiniest details. Should we really be surprised that it is leading to revolts,” said Mr Van Reybrouck''. And, ''The late colonial regimes had "councils of the people" just as there is a European Parliament today, but substantive power resided in the imperial executive, acting “far away from us, without us, on our behalf”, like Brussels today.''

AEP's own comments :-

''I don’t wish to reopen the Referendum chapter, but we risk getting bogged down in Brexit minutiae and forgetting why we are leaving. It is not a whimsical choice. The decision was forced upon us because the EU began to assert "totalitarian" reach, using Hannah Arendt’s term advisedly to mean a systematic assault on prior traditions and institutions in order to create an entirely new order.''

''We do not wish to live under a higher supranational regime, run by a European Council that Britons do not elect directly and can never remove – even when it persists in error – and guided by a Commission priesthood with quasi-executive powers. Nor do we want to live under an EU supreme court that acquired sweeping supremacy under the Lisbon Treaty, with no right of appeal.''

''We are now at an impasse: a soft Brexit on tolerable terms is no longer available; Canada Plus is a chimera; and there is no majority in Parliament for a decisive clean break.

How would Sukarno have handled this situation, or Nehru, Nasser, and Nkrumah, one wonders? They certainly would not a have lost a moment’s sleep over a point or two of GDP. Their sole objective was to achieve independence, and they succeeded by displaying the stronger will.''

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/06/britain-almost-has-fight-way-eu-colonial-empire/

If anyone wants me to post the whole script just ask.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on December 08, 2017, 08:03:41 PM
"Sufficient progress" has been made and the UK and the EU have come to some sort of agreement that keeps everyone happy - even the DUP and the Irish. So, next step is to try to negotiate a trade deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/08/sufficient-progress-in-brexit-talks-announced-after-mays-dash-to-brussels (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/08/sufficient-progress-in-brexit-talks-announced-after-mays-dash-to-brussels)

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/dec/08/main-points-of-agreement-uk-eu-brexit-deal (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/dec/08/main-points-of-agreement-uk-eu-brexit-deal)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 11, 2017, 05:15:10 AM
Roger Bootle in the DT on Mrs May and Brexit :-

''Once it became clear that the EU was going to play hardball, she should have immediately embarked on a no-deal strategy.''

Time for Mrs May to move on ?
''If you are in any doubt about how badly the Government has handled these negotiations, you should note that last week we heard that Jean-Claude Juncker was keen for Mrs May to get some sort of agreement in order to prevent the fall of her Government. He feared that she could be replaced by a eurosceptic prime minister, prepared to leave the EU without a deal. Hey presto, there’s an agreement''.

Here's a nightmare scenario :-
''We could end up with something close to membership of the customs union and the single market but without a voice in EU decision-making, while still being subject to the European Court of Justice in important matter.''

Alfie to say 'sufficient progress' is no more than a 'sop to the fudge', (if you see what I mean). Interesting times indeed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/10/next-phase-brexit-talks-goes-badly-must-walk-away-without-deal/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 19, 2017, 10:57:27 AM
The pressure Group, 'Leave means Leave' includes 50 Tory MP's and MEP's:-

''Leave Means Leave has created a “litmus test” to judge Brexit which is that the UK “is in a position when it leaves the EU on March 29th 2019 to deregulate (including the removal of external tariffs), manage migration, capitalise on global free trade opportunities, abolish the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and repatriate fisheries, end the net £11billion a year paid to the EU, set our own tax regime and have a more competitive currency.”''

IMO these points are ours to take, not theirs to give.

Alfie was right - ''There is no negotiating with this bunch of liars and cheats.''

The UK will become politically exhausted - there will be no good will on the other side. 

Roger Bootle in the DT - ''Once it became clear that the EU was going to play hardball, she should have immediately embarked on a no-deal strategy.''

It should be an interesting few months to come . . .
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on December 19, 2017, 11:27:23 AM

Alfie was right - ''There is no negotiating with this bunch of liars and cheats.''



So British politicians are the same as white rabbits I have to presume now? Come on and come back into the real world please  ;D ;D ;D ;D.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on December 19, 2017, 12:17:48 PM

Alfie was right - ''There is no negotiating with this bunch of liars and cheats.''



So British politicians are the same as white rabbits I have to presume now? Come on and come back into the real world please  ;D ;D ;D ;D.

It's a fair point. But the EU are well versed with lying and cheating and have turned it into an art form - just ask Greece. Sadly the UK has it's own quislings, just as the Greeks had, who successfully sought to undermine the radical Greek Government elected to say no to the EU's Troika's - who are only to happy to undermine democracy and have done so successfully in various eu states. For the UK, I'm thinking Blair, Clarke and their ilk.

The new soviet inspired eu, or even a colonial eu (a certain irony in that, considering Europe's history), as espoused by a radical left wing Belgian historian, can continue it's development unfettered, after the UK leaves. They should pay us to go!  ;D

Good interview here with Hans-Olaf Henkel, who despises the federalist stance of those in power in the EU and in particular Guy Verhofstadt, who he clearly dislikes as much as I do!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXbrv6k0IAs
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 19, 2017, 03:17:52 PM
Hi Robert - ''So British politicians are the same as white rabbits I have to presume now? Come on and come back into the real world please''.  I'm not sure what you mean.

Caller - interesting interview. Thanks.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on December 19, 2017, 03:40:21 PM
Hi Robert - ''So British politicians are the same as white rabbits I have to presume now? Come on and come back into the real world please''.  I'm not sure what you mean.

Caller - interesting interview. Thanks.

Hi Roger,

so you do not think politicians all over the world share some bad habits? Meaning you cannot accuse opponents to be all liars and cheaters. This is really generalizing. There are even good people on our side of the channel, haha. Maybe I should have written "white knights" instead of white rabbits but please note English is not my native language. I do have English ancesters though  ;D ;D ;D.

Have a nice day,
Robert
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on January 09, 2018, 05:50:34 AM
Hi Robert. Sorry I didn't reply earlier - I agree there are good and bad politicians on both sides of the channel of course. And your English is better than my 'Dutch'. Much ! ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on January 09, 2018, 06:01:52 AM
The UK and Europe face some great struggles over Brexit in 2018.

Nigel Farage who seems to be on the sidelines and curiously redundant, now that UKIP is done, has been to see the dreaded Barnier. I've clipped these bits from a DT article today :-

''Today, I was granted an audience with Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator. I requested this appointment after Sir Nicholas Clegg, Lord Adonis and Ken Clarke were able to see the great man in Brussels in October.

My main objective was to make sure Mr Barnier heard some pro-Brexit views that I suspect the Conservative government has not yet explained to him. I began with a question suggested by one of my LBC radio show listeners, namely: does he understand why Brexit happened in the first place? I also asked whether he thinks uncontrolled mass immigration from the EU had been the single biggest issue in the mind of Brexit voters. His look of total incomprehension confirmed his reluctance to accept the unvarnished truth about the consequences of letting 10 poor, former communist countries join the EU.

When I moved on to asking what discussions there have been on future border arrangements between the UK and the EU, he seemed astonished. This was all to be decided in the future, he said. On trade, I asked  what damage a ‘No deal’ might do to the EU economy. Barnier replied coolly that talks on trades, goods and services will begin in March. This was most enlightening in its way.  I now believe Barnier, the man who once said in a threatening tone “The clock is ticking”, is happy to play for time and see Britain sweat.

On physical goods such as German cars, French wine and Belgian chocolates, he said he is relaxed about a Canada-style trade deal. Small wonder given that EU states sell Britain £70bn more worth of goods every year than we sell them. But as I moved the conversation on to financial services, things changed - as did his body language. He is adamant that Europe’s financial stability must be protected. To him, this means the UK operating under the same financial rules as in the EU, with the involvement of the ECJ, without which there could never be a full deal on financial services.

Over the last few weeks I have spoken to some very serious business players who want to know where they stand. They say to enter another lengthy period of renegotiation and ratification without the prospect of a sensible end result would simply be a waste of time. They will no doubt be alarmed by Barnier’s stance.

In the first phase of the Brexit negotiations our government has conceded a great deal. As we move to phase two, Barnier seems to be asking us to go a bridge too far. Unless he is prepared to give a little ground to the Leave side, the clamour will grow for the United Kingdom simply to leave as quickly as possible on WTO terms.

After 40 minutes together, my view is that Barnier believes in the European project as a substitute for religion. In other words, heretics will never do well. I find it strange that he had a picture of General de Gaulle on his wall -  a man who believed in a Europe of countries. I guess his interpretation of history and mine are very different. This is why we had the referendum in the first place
.

Historic events in the UK and the EU in 2018 ? Yes - roll on the change !
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on January 09, 2018, 07:46:12 PM
It seems the EU's Jean-Claude Juncker has only just realised that Brexit wll happen!!

 ;D ;D  ;D  ;D


EU's Juncker: Don't believe Brexit won't happen
"Don't believe those who say that it's not going to happen and that people in the UK have realised their error... I don't think that's going to be the case," he told a Brussels conference.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42609057 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42609057)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on January 12, 2018, 07:57:01 AM
Hi,

Noticed this report in Dutch newspaper online.

Robert

Economic impact of Brexit revealed in new report
11th January 2018


Cambridge Econometrics’ study ‘Preparing for Brexit’ published today by London Mayor Sadiq Khan represents a new insight into the local economic impacts of the UK’s exit from the European Union.

The report, which is the first comprehensive assessment of Brexit across key indicators and sectors at a sub-national level reveals a spread of impacts under five different scenarios, ranging from a status quo (where the UK remains in the Single Market and Customs Union) to an extreme no-deal (WTO rules) outcome.

The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, said:

    This independent analysis of Brexit reveals the potential economic risks – and human costs – at stake in the negotiations …. I’ve released these impact assessments because the British people and our businesses have a right to know the likely impact on their lives and personal finances.

    This new analysis shows why the Government should now change its approach and negotiate a deal that enables us to remain in both the single market and the customs union.

It is thought that London will emerge relatively better than the rest of the UK because it has a higher concentration of high-value sectors, which are more resilient and able to recover from economic shocks more quickly.

However, the results show that Brexit will not only reduce the size of the UK economy (compared to what may have happened if the UK remained in the single market and customs union), but also put it on a slower long-term growth trajectory (the economy is still expected to grow, but at a slower rate than if Brexit did not occur).

Ben Gardiner, Director at Cambridge Econometrics, said:

    This is the first time that the impact of Brexit has been comprehensively assessed across a number of key indicators and sectors at sub-national level, in this case clusters of London boroughs in both inner and outer London.

    The study adds a new dimension to existing studies and offers a valuable insight into the potential impact of Brexit on employment and output under a range of scenarios.

    We think that this approach could be applied to other parts of the UK to help political and business leaders plan for the future.

Key findings

Negative impact on investment

The modelling results show that Brexit will have a negative impact on the UK economy across all key indicators, in particular on investment where £20.2bn would be lost by 2030 under the ‘softest’ scenario and £46.7bn under the most severe Brexit scenario.

Employment will fall

London is expected to experience a loss of 30,500 people in employment under the ‘softest’ scenario, rising to 87,000 under the ‘hardest’ scenario, by 2030.

However, it is not expected to be as negatively affected as the rest of the UK, in terms of GVA and productivity.

Financial and professional services sector will be hit the hardest

The financial and professional services could experience up to 119,000 fewer jobs nationally in 2030 than would otherwise be the case.

However, the science and technology, creative and construction sectors, which make up a high proportion of economic activity in the UK, particularly in London, are also sectors which will be hit hard by Brexit.

To read the full report, please see:

Preparing for Brexit


Link  https://www.camecon.com/news/economic-impact-brexit-starkly-revealed-new-report/ (https://www.camecon.com/news/economic-impact-brexit-starkly-revealed-new-report/)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on January 12, 2018, 08:37:15 PM
They're a bit late to the game aren't they? Never heard of them before.

They'll be just like the rest of the doom and gloom merchants - wrong.

I note they have an office in Brussels, I wonder where their funding comes from?

And of course the mayor of London is a famous remoaner.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on January 13, 2018, 04:00:17 PM
It's pretty poor "analysis" when they haven't actually analysed the government's position or the scenario the government is trying to achieve.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on January 14, 2018, 02:55:23 PM
Hi Robert and all,

There's lots of material available - to feed all viewpoints. How about this from the DX today :-

''PRESSURE was last night mounting on the EU to sign a free-trade agreement with Britain after a report revealed that a “no deal” scenario could cost the bloc more than £500billion. The shock figure emerged as Brussels looked set to cave in on a key demand to move a financial body out of the City of London and the head of Deutsche Bank was forced to admit a threatened “Brexodus” from the capital had been exaggerated.

The pro-Brexit Economists for Free Trade group forecast that Britain will gain £651billion from walking away from talks, leaving the EU with a £507billion bill. Sir Patrick Minford, an economic adviser to the Treasury under Margaret Thatcher, used a classic trade model to predict that GDP will spike by nine per cent, amounting to a one-off gain of £180billion, if we leave on March 29, 2019, without a deal. He predicts that the UK would make an additional £433billion in tariffs imposed on EU producers if we operated under World Trade Organisation rules, because we import more than we export.

That, plus the £38billion we have saved by not paying for the two-year transition period, adds up to a total of £651billion.''

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/904339/brexit-news-eu-uk-no-deal-free-trade-agreement-economists-for-free-trade

If the UK can't do better without the red tape etc. of the EU, well so be it.
I think we will do much better outside - very much better.

ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on January 14, 2018, 03:04:39 PM
Hi again Robert - here's a piece from Christopher Booker in the DT today :-

''The horrifying true story of how France used the EU to undermine British agriculture

Michael Gove’s recent musings about Britain’s post-Brexit farming policy provide an apt cue to recall one of the most curious episodes in the entire history of the EU: the true origins of its notorious Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The shocking story behind this only emerged when, some years back, Richard North and I were researching our history of the EU, The Great Deception. And much else this also helped to explain, from the real reason Charles de Gaulle twice vetoed British entry in the Sixties to why Margaret Thatcher had to battle for our budget rebate in the Eighties.

The official, entirely bogus version has it that the CAP was devised by a benevolent Brussels to guarantee Europe’s “food security” and to save its farmers from the kind of depression they had suffered in the Thirties.

The truth is that, immediately after the war, all Western European countries, including Britain, introduced their own farm subsidies. But by the early Sixties this was leading in France to disaster, building up unsaleable food surpluses at such an unaffordable cost that a drastic solution had to be found. "The UK had to be kept out until all these arcane financial arrangements had been agreed. Otherwise Britain, with then the most efficient agricultural sector in Europe, might well block such a one-sided deal"

The clever French noted that the Treaty of Rome promised a Common Agricultural Policy but without giving any details. So their answer was to devise a CAP so absurdly loaded in France’s favour that two other countries would not only provide a market for its surpluses but pay for subsidising them into the bargain. Those countries were Germany and Britain, which by then had announced its intention to join the Common Market.

But the UK had to be kept out until all these arcane financial arrangements had been agreed. Otherwise Britain, with then the most efficient agricultural sector in Europe, might well block such a one-sided deal: hence the real reason for de Gaulle’s two vetoes in 1963 and 1967. Only in 1969, at a summit in The Hague, did the French finally get the agreement they wanted. The very next item on the agenda was to reconsider Britain’s application to join.

The following year, Edward Heath was so keen to get us into “Europe” that he accepted the CAP without demur. In 1973, the year we went in, British farm incomes were higher in real terms than ever before or since. But so loaded against us were the financial arrangements for the CAP that, by 1979, it was clear that within six years the UK would be the largest single net contributor to the Brussels budget, of which the CAP was then taking 90 per cent: hence Mrs Thatcher’s five-year battle to win her rebate.

Since then, much of British agriculture has been in decline. We now import 30 per cent of our food from the EU. Much of it comes from France, which continues to be the largest beneficiary of the CAP.''

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/13/horrifying-true-story-france-used-eu-undermine-british-agriculture/

As I say - lots around ! ATB ::)
 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on January 14, 2018, 06:12:45 PM
I've said it before so I will say it again, the EU is an Orwellian, despotic, anti-democratic project that has already conspired to bring down Governments and worse - steps in and acts as a proxy ruler when member states don't comply with their bidding - just ask Irealnd, Italy, Cyprus and Greece.

Get off the net and get your nose stuck into a book, there is much out there and you will learn of folk you have never heard of calling the shots and making the decisions that can change Countries forever.

 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on January 15, 2018, 10:13:46 AM
Caller, I agree with your bold Para 1 - but you could add Spain, Portugal, Poland, Hungary etc. to your list.

Robert - Brexit is such a massive topic that there's views from all directions - all including an amount of prediction, reliable or not. It's my view that the UK WILL get it's act together and that all will be OK. But - time will tell  ;)

Brexit's gonna happen - even Jean-Claude Juncker concedes that now, as Alfie observes  :)

I wonder if it'll be HARD or SOFT ?

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on January 15, 2018, 02:51:11 PM
Put your Brexit brollies away, lads.


Bank of England admits 'Michael Fish' moment with dire Brexit predictions

The Bank of England has admitted its dire warnings of a downturn in the wake of the Brexit vote were a “Michael Fish” moment and said that the economics profession was now in “crisis”.

Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist, said there was a “disconnect” between political warnings about Brexit and the “remarkably placid” state of the markets, adding that the worst predictions may turn out to be “just scare stories”.

He made the concession as new figures suggested Britain was the fastest growing of all advanced economies last year after the services sector defied gloomy forecasts to hit a 17-month high.

At an event at the Institute for Government in London, Mr Haldane said that criticism of economists was a “fair cop” after they failed to predict the financial crisis and were wrong about the impact of the Brexit vote.

He compared their performance to Mr Fish’s infamous weather forecast in October 1987, in which he dismissed warnings that a hurricane was “on the way” but noted there could be high winds in Spain.

(https://i.imgur.com/TXBPaPx.jpg)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/05/bank-england-admits-michael-fish-moment-dire-brexit-predictions (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/05/bank-england-admits-michael-fish-moment-dire-brexit-predictions)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on January 21, 2018, 05:30:47 PM
President Macron of France has his 'Michael Fish' moment too :-

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/907719/Macron-France-vote-to-LEAVE-EU-referendum-Brexit-Brussels-Marr

Gotta go.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on January 21, 2018, 07:21:45 PM
^ Interesting.
Quote
Macron admits France would vote to LEAVE EU if country held referendum
FRENCH president Emmanuel Macron shocked Andrew Marr during their interview when he admitted that had France held a referendum on membership of the EU after Brexit, the French people would vote to leave.

And now Macron is on board for a special deal for the UK. That's what we've been asking for all along. Finally, at least one EU leader agrees with us.

Macron says 'special' UK deal possible.

French President Emmanuel Macron has suggested the UK could get a special trade deal with the EU after Brexit. A deal might fall somewhere between the single market and a trade agreement, he said.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42757026 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42757026)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on February 10, 2018, 04:53:35 PM
From the DT today - a solution for the Irish border with N. Ireland ?

''Could Canada's hi-tech border controls provide the answer to Britain's customs union dilemma? Ben Riley-Smith, US editor 10 February 2018 • 7:15am

''For Matt Marchand, the border between Canada and America never meant that much. Born and raised in Windsor, Canada’s most southern city, the lights of Detroit could be seen just across the river. Despite the two cities being in different countries and separated by half a mile of water, he saw them as part of one whole. “It is very similar to going from the north side of the Thames to ‪the south side‬,” he says, recalling nipping into America for dinner in the evening or to meet friends. “If you’ve lived here and grown up here, going to Detroit is not necessarily viewed as going to a foreign country.”
 
As Britain’s political class grapples to define its new trading relationship with Europe after Brexit, attention has been drawn to the Detroit-Windsor crossing. David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, visited last year and returned preaching how new technology could be harnessed to create a “very open border” – triggering eye-rolls from critics. Canada, like the post-Brexit Britain that Theresa May envisions, has no customs union with its largest trading partner but keeps tariffs low with a trade deal.

According to Mr Marchand, the 50-year-old president of the Windsor region’s chamber of commerce, that arrangement has proved pretty effective. “One hundred per cent it works well,” he says. “The economies of Windsor and Detroit are linked on a daily basis. It is just natural here to pop across the border. “We have 10,000 trucks a day going across. If it was a nightmare, they wouldn’t be crossing. We wouldn’t be building another bridge or maybe even two.”

The numbers appear to support his case. The Ambassador Bridge, which carries four lanes of traffic each way between the cities, is North America’s busiest trading crossing. Some 25 per cent of all merchandise trade between Canada and America goes over the suspension bridge, with an estimated $400 million (£290 million) generated each working day. It is not uncommon for trucks to cross the border four times a day, while thousands of commuters make the same journey – not least the Canadians who help keep Detroit’s hospitals running.

The relative ease of border crossing has allowed manufacturers, especially the car industry, to set up hubs on both sides – in effect creating a single assembly line between two countries. Local businessmen boast that one individual part – such as a widget – can cross the US-Canada border seven times before the product it is used in is complete.

The trick to the Ambassador Bridge’s success, according to Stan Korosec, its director of security and Canadian government relations, is found in technology. His team runs a 24-hour operation designed to keep the trucks moving, hitting their ‘just in time’ factory requirements, while maintaining security. “The idea is you want that truck to spend as little time as possible at the border,” he explains. “It is all about trust and one way of establishing that is to remove doubt before the truck even gets there.”

Canada uses a system called Free And Secure Trade for Commercial Vehicles, or Fast for short, which allows truck drivers to register for “trusted” status. Once secured, the benefits are tangible. Customs forms only need to be submitted 30 minutes before arrival, done electronically and with payment sorted in advance. At the customs booth – one of around a dozen when crossing into America – the driver simply holds out a barcode that is scanned, revealing details of the load. The interaction can last just 30 seconds.

Radiation scanners automatically check the vehicle for stowaways, while only a handful of drivers are pulled aside for further x-ray scans or customs spot checks. All in all it can take five minutes to drive the bridge, clear customs and be back on the road in America – or 15 minutes if it’s especially busy. The system is based on good faith: The cargo will not be checked automatically for correct payment, but punitive fines go to those caught breaking the rules. “People who have never been to the border, when they come down and see it, their eyes are really opened,” Mr Korosec says. “They see the border and go ‘oh my god, this is how it works.’”

Of course the comparison between Canada and post-Brexit Britain is not perfect. Windsor and Detroit are separated by water, unlike the Irish border – the thorniest customs issue for the UK. There are physical border checks, something that would prove deeply controversial if copied in Ireland, perhaps explaining why its leader Leo Varadkar has rejected the Detroit model.

And yet the crossing does provide a glimpse into how a rich Western country can see trade prosper with its closest economic partner without a formal customs union. The North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta), signed between America, Canada and Mexico in 1994, dropped tariffs on vast swaths of goods to zero but also let Canada protect certain sectors. The country’s broadcasting, retail banking, telecoms and diary industries keep American rivals away with various trade barriers, some because they are deemed of “national importance
”.''

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/10/could-canadas-hi-tech-border-controls-provide-answer-britains/

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on February 23, 2018, 04:08:09 PM
Martin Selmayr - seems an excellent example of those whom we Brexiteers dislike so much. An example of the EU running for the benefit of the glory of the EU 'crats.

From the DT today :-

''It was the perfect coup. Until recently, no one imagined that Martin Selmayr had any ambitions to run the European Union civil service – or that such a job could be used as a political power base. When he was named as Eurocrat-in-chief, two days ago, his enemies were astonished. He had not been on any shortlist; they had no time to organise against him. But the most ambitious man in Brussels – nicknamed “Rasputin,” “the monster” and worse – will soon be in charge of the whole machine with its 32,000 staff. As one EU official put it: “he takes all the power – completely.”

The internal politics of Brussels are intended to be hypnotically tedious. But the rise of Selmayr, 47-year-old chief-of-staff to Jean-Claude Juncker, matters because he offers a perfect example of what Brussels is becoming. He is a brilliant, workaholic German who specialises in out manoeuvring opponents. He’s a former lawyer who has never stood for election, but influences power through the people he serves. He has a clear vision of the EU: as a top-down machine, with strong political direction.

To work out why his ascendancy is important you have to go back to a dinner between David Cameron and Mark Rutte, his Dutch counterpart, in Chequers, four years ago. Both believed that the EU had to reform to survive and Rutte had a plan. National parliaments would be given power to veto EU directives they didn’t like. There’d be a new mantra: Europe would only do what only Europe can do (i.e. no more meddling). So: less interference, less spending, fewer diktats, more democracy. Brussels would be put back in its box.

I met Rutte at the time, and he was very optimistic. After all, he said, is there really an alternative? Didn’t everyone agree that the EU needed to be dialled back, and wasn’t there something un-European about seeking to foist uniformity on the most diverse continent on earth? No Prime Minister relished the idea of trying to beat back the EU machine, but most of them were facing trouble at home from Eurosceptic populists. So it was time to revert back to the original plan: a union of free, sovereign states.

But this liberal vision of Europe – the one that I believed in for so long – has now been comprehensively defeated. Cameron found out the hard way that the EU is incapable of serious change. There are too many bickering, veto-wielding member states – and, in Brussels, too many well-organised federalists hard at work.

"Do you know the difference between Selmayr and God? God knows he’s not Selmayr."Wolfgang Schauble

Perhaps Selmayr’s greatest achievement was maneuvering Juncker into the top job, on the dubious pretext that the president of the European Commission should be nominated by the European Parliament. This, the so-called Spitzenkandidat system, was a classic example of a reform that sounds tedious but has a revolutionary effect. From that point, the Commission has not been the servant of its member states but of those devoted to the European project. The answer to every problem was always going to be: more Europe.

Reform-minded Europhiles like me, should have realised the game was up. Time after time, there was talk of change – yet the power only ever flowed from governments to Brussels. To many, this was what the referendum was about: whether the EU was heading in the wrong direction, if it would ever reform – and, if not, whether it was best to leave now.

Almost all of the EU reforms since the referendum have been in the wrong direction. Nation states are losing control, federalists are winning. The idea of an EU army, for example, was dismissed as fanciful during the referendum. Now it’s firmly on the cards, with Juncker talking about “common military assets” owned by the EU. We have seen plans for an EU-wide tax on financial transactions, and even the Irish might be ordered to give up their low corporation tax and huddle closer to Brussels.

Perhaps the worst of it has been the political instability: as the EU’s intransigence intensifies, so does the backlash. Marine Le Pen took a third of the vote in France’s presidential election and AfD look set to become the main opposition in Germany: two facts that should appall anyone who cares about stability in Europe. The prospects for real reform in Brussels have never looked bleaker.

The never-ending stitch-ups are becoming a source of dark humour. One group of MEPs has offered sarcastic congratulations to Selmayr for winning the “open and fair competition” to become Eurocrat-in-Chief. Some have gone further. Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s former finance minister, once said that the difference between Selmayr and God is that “God knows he’s not Selmayr”. For his own part, Selmayr revels in such notoriety, describing himself as “the bad guy”. If no one’s electing you, of course, it doesn’t matter how many people don’t like you.

Rutte was back in London this week, visiting Theresa May. He still talks about reforming Europe, but without Britain it’s a lost cause. The Hungarians are the latest to say they’ll shake things up in Brussels, helped by the Poles, Czechs and Slovaks. The optimism of the so-called Visegrad Four is almost touching: Britain spent decades pushing for change, and entertaining the delusion that we could shape, even lead, Europe. Meanwhile the EU machine has gone on acquiring ever-more power, and its democratic deficit is now embodied by Selmayr’s extraordinary rise.

This won’t make Brexit any easier. Selmayr is no fan of the British, and is seen to be behind the decision to send the caustic Michel Barnier to handle the Brexit talks. This shocked many in Brussels: one EU Commissioner told me at the time that this was a baffling declaration of hostility, given Barnier’s reputation for needling Britain. Kristalina Georgieva, who recently quit as a vice president, says she made up her mind to resign when Barnier was appointed. The Juncker-Selmayr duumvirate, she said, had become “poisonous”.

The Brexit discussion in Britain now is all about “managed withdrawals” and the other technicalities. Tempers run high. What’s the point of leaving, ask some Tories, if we don’t get freedom to cut a certain deal at a certain time? The point is that, after Brexit, we won’t be part of this system anymore. We can watch from a safe distance, even wish Selmayr well. And remind ourselves what we won’t miss.
''


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/22/stealthy-rise-martin-selmayr-monster-brussels-shows-must-go/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on February 23, 2018, 08:47:12 PM
A widely quoted source said: “Divergence has won the day”.  8)
The DX is good for a laugh and good for your hopes  ::)
Roll on and G'bye EU ! Hopefully.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/922798/brexit-news-theresa-may-brexit-team-negotiation-eu
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on February 26, 2018, 06:26:29 AM
Another light-hearted Brexit interlude.  :)


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UA2EjAfVAcw
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 02, 2018, 04:57:13 AM
Nice one Alfie.

History in the making . . .
In today's DT, insights into Mrs May's coming speech :-

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/03/01/eu-making-decent-brexit-impossible-britain-wont-tame-easily/

The EU is making a decent Brexit impossible – but Britain won't tame as easily as Greece Jeremy Warner 1 March 2018 • 8:00pm

''How can Brussels imagine there is any good outcome to destabilising Europe's second largest economy? When Yanis Varoufakis was appointed finance minister in the first weeks of Syriza’s radical Left government in Greece, it was not just for his neo-Marxist views, but also because of his supposed expertise in game theory. These skills would be vital, it was thought, in negotiating with the EU and the International Monetary Fund over debt forgiveness.

The sensible, economically rational and humane thing to have done with Greece’s mountainous debts would have been to cancel them, as occurs in any normal bankruptcy, not confine the country to the fiscal imprisonment of repayment. It was not to be. As Varoufakis discovered, there is no such thing as a genuine two-way negotiation, aimed at a mutually beneficial outcome, when it comes to the EU.

Brussels adopted a take it or leave it approach; given the potentially calamitous economic costs of the “leave it” option, Greece quickly capitulated. Game theory dictates that, to succeed, the other side has to believe you are serious about your threats. The EU never thought Greece would quit the single currency, and in any case had taken steps to insulate itself from the fallout even if it did. Greece found itself with no cards to play.

Exactly the same strategy is being adopted by the EU over Brexit. For Varoufakis, the main lesson from his own confrontation with the EU is to avoid at all costs being drawn into a negotiation about the right to negotiate. That is precisely the trap that Theresa May, the British Prime Minister, finds herself in. As a result, the terms of Britain’s departure – if it happens at all – are ever more likely to be dictated by Brussels, with only marginal input from London.

As someone who backed Remain – albeit with some reluctance – I take no pleasure in pointing out that the current, increasingly fraught state of affairs was both predictable and predicted. The bespoke “cake and eat it” relationship with Europe that Britain seeks was never going to be on offer, even though from an economic perspective it is the approach which would best suit not just Britain but Europe. As with Greece, the European Commission continues to put its own self-preservation above the interests of the ordinary citizens it is meant to serve. Ask not what the EU can do for you, only what you can do for the EU.

In my experience, there is nothing inherently evil about those who run the EU; on the whole they are smart and relatively well-meaning people. But they are also prisoners of assumed institutional destiny. Perversely, this leads them to reject a mutually advantageous arrangement for fear that it might encourage others to ask for the same.

The integrity, not to say sanctity, of the single market must therefore be defended at all costs, like some deity whose original purpose has long since been forgotten. Such niceties as economic advancement must take second place. This was true with the eurozone debt crisis; it’s now true of Brexit. Even those who were never part of the EU are subjected to the same thumbscrew. Switzerland, with its multitude of bilateral treaties, is sometimes cited as a potential model for Brexit Britain, but in truth suffers many of the same dilemmas as now confront the UK.

In order to preserve current arrangements, the Swiss parliament has in effect been forced to repudiate the referendum of four years ago which resulted in a vote for immigration controls. For many years prior to this vote, Switzerland was able to co-exist with the EU as a kind of forgotten parasite on the pig’s belly. Brexit has brought an unwelcome degree of attention, undermining the exceptionalism Switzerland enjoyed by virtue of history and relatively small size; determined to stop the supposed cherry picking, Brussels is clamping down hard.

Slowly but surely, the Alpine realm is being drawn into the EU’s embrace. In effect, it is already an example of the vassal state hardline Brexiteers fear for the UK if forced to stay in the single market and customs union, conforming to an acquis communautaire it has no say in creating.

Consciously or otherwise, the EU is making it impossible for Britain to leave on decent terms, increasing the chances of a messy exit that will be damaging to all. It beggars belief that otherwise sane policymakers such as Michel Barnier could think that destabilising Europe’s second largest economy, with powerful spillover effects into Europe itself, the right way of approaching the British mutiny.

The Irish border issue provides the latest example of overreach. Has the Commission no understanding of Northern Ireland’s poisonous history? Does it honestly believe that the peacekeeping purpose of the Good Friday Agreement will be furthered by imposing a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK? By what right does it threaten the breakup of a sovereign nation?

Barnier and his puppet masters play a dangerous game in gambling that May will be forced to abandon her red lines. Britain is not Greece, Norway or Switzerland. It cannot so easily be swatted away. As the two sides dig in, the risks of a bad outcome grow steadily higher
.''

Alleleuah to that !  8)


Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 02, 2018, 10:37:16 AM
Well, having read Varoufakis' book, I think Greece did have alternative options that were deemed viable, albeit painful, by many experts. They also poured scorn on any eu claim to be able to have withstood the fall out.

Varoufakis was and is an academic and never a politician and he was simply too open and honest for his own good. The EU also recognised that they had to split the alliance that there was between Varoufakis and his PM. That's where the dirty tricks came to the fore and all the leaks and conspiring to make Varoufakis an enemy of the Greeks. To do this it got into bed with those responsible for Greece's plight in the first place - the Oligarchs who also run the media and who would have been hit by heavy taxes if Varoufakis' plans had come to fruition as well as those politicians who would dance to the EU's tune, including placing one as head of the Greeks own Bank of England, who was opposed to the new Greek Govt. The coup d'état was completed when Merkel personally befriended the Greek PM, put a soothing arm around his shoulders, eased him away from the plans of Varoufakis and promised him all would be well - and then drove a stake through his heart.   

Okay, it was a bit more complex than that, with all sorts of betrayals within the Greek cabinet, but you get the picture.

I agree they have been playing the same game with the UK. We have yet to see whether it will work. 

And there is a big difference between Greece and Brexit. The only people that suffered over the Greek crisis were the Greeks - and what befell them equates to a crime against humanity in my book.

Brexit, with no deal will have major effects on many EU Countries and many oridinary people will be affected throughout. Scandanavian and other Countries have already warned against such self-inflicting aims and ultimately it will be the leaders that will decide, not Bernier and Juncker et al and it will be a brave politician that will go to a generally eurosceptic electorate saying the hardships they are suffering, are all in the name of the greater Europeon dream.

The Italians go to the polls this Sunday and Merkel will learn whether her 'Grand coalition' survives the vote of approval needed by individual members of the junior coalition party. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 06, 2018, 02:46:48 PM
Hi Caller and thanks for yours.

Well I see that Merkel is 'in place' for now and that Italy polled Eurosceptic !

Theresa May has steadied the Tories for now but the problem remains :-

''Barnier and his puppet masters play a dangerous game in gambling that May will be forced to abandon her red lines. Britain is not Greece, Norway or Switzerland. It cannot so easily be swatted away. As the two sides dig in, the risks of a bad outcome grow steadily higher''.

It should be an interesting meeting when Barnier visits this week !
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 07, 2018, 04:15:28 PM
Even though it's the DX, I just had to post some extracts of the article linked below. Worth a chuckle and good to read for Brexiteers.

Italy's new Eurosceptic Leaders talking EU and Brexit :-
 
“Punishment or anything of the kind would be sheer stupidity. We export more to the UK than we import back and we certainly don’t want to hurt our own client.” Meanwhile, a senator from the anti-establishment Lega party said: “The EU is becoming more and more of a German empire.We are seeing German bureaucrats taking over the key positions in the EU institutions. We can understand why Britain wanted to escape from this prison.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/928226/italian-election-5-star-movement-northern-league-eu-brexit
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 07, 2018, 07:42:02 PM
Other papers have printed similar reports. I thought they were based on interviews with the Telegraph?

Other issues that could impact on Brexit are beginning to happen. If the tariffs proposed by Trump kick in, it will have a major impact on Germany, as will a no-deal brexit. I wonder how that will impact on the negotiations? If the Italians follow through on their threats, that could impact on any final deal. Lost trade with the UK will have a major effect on the Italian economy. Also today, the Telegraph revealed that 8 EU finance ministers have warned against Macron's plans for greater Eurozone federalisation, basically saying that the EU needs to regain the trust of the public first and there now seems genuine concerns about the German / French axis that dominates Europe. Other Countries have already expressed their concerns about the stance taken by the eu at the negotiations. It certainly seems that cracks are beginning to appear in the unified front the EU have put forward in the negotiations so far. Interesting times.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/03/06/eu-finance-chiefs-hit-back-french-plans-greater-integration/

Also interesting to see if the Leagues plans to run a paralell currency to the euro for internal use in Italy - as proposed by Varoufakis for Greece - actually come to fruition. The eurozone will be totally opossed to that and I doubt it will happen.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 08, 2018, 03:27:18 PM
Caller - thanks for your thoughtful insights on Brexit. Always good to read.

Looking around today, there's not much comfort around for TM - her latest overtures to the EU's 'crats seem to rest on the usual barren ground. In fact, the theme of 'punishing' the UK seems to be prevalent - as an example to others like Italy MMmmmm. I heard a Luxemburg MEP opining about giving the UK a hard time - well if we are to dance to the tune of bl**dy Luxembourg, I rest my case  >:(

It seems to me that unless the EU26 take charge and replace the whole negotiating team - we are heading for a major blow up ! The 'crats seem to have the EU Nations by the balls atm and there can be no progress.  ???
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on March 08, 2018, 05:06:52 PM
Meanwhile the hapless May is sucking up to the Saudi dictator.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 08, 2018, 08:44:44 PM
It could be worse. At least we haven't got that muppet Corbyn as PM.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 08, 2018, 11:16:49 PM
It seems to me that unless the EU26 take charge and replace the whole negotiating team - we are heading for a major blow up ! The 'crats seem to have the EU Nations by the balls atm and there can be no progress.  ???

I still think most of the negotiations are going fine. It's just a few headline issues that grab all the attention.

It's going to be mind-boggling and in my opinion, will create a fatal blow to the current direction of Europe as dictated by one of two Countries and the unelected bureaucrats, if tariffs are imposed on trade between the EU and the UK. I doubt Joe Public in the EU will be able to comprehend why their leaders are happy that their economies and livelihoods are damaged because of the 'project', when their is so much anti-eu feeling demonstrated in so many member states. Hence the warning letter by 8 EU finance ministers. I think it could be the biggest mistake the eu makes.   
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 09, 2018, 08:27:49 PM
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/929437/Brexit-news-European-Union-Donald-Trump-steel-trade-war-UK-EU-latest

''THE European Commission said the EU - including Britain - must be "treated as a block" after Donald Trump hinted he could exempt Britain from his controversial steel and aluminium tariffs. European Commissioner Jyrki Katainen said the EU won’t tolerate being “split into groups” after the US President sparked a possible trade war yesterday with his announcement to impose a 25 percent levy on imported steel and 10 percent on aluminium. But he suggested allies who pay their "bills", for example those who meet Nato's defence spending guideline of 2 percent GDP, could be excluded from the tariffs.

And UK International Trade Secretary Liam Fox suggested Britain could be exempt due to the two nations’ joint work on security and military trade. Mr Katainen, the Commission’s vice-president for jobs, growth, investment and competitiveness, was sent before the Brussels press pack to field questions about the steel tariffs. He said: “We cannot accept that the EU is divided into different categories.” He said the EU must be “treated as a block” and can’t be “split into groups” over issues such as trade. The entire bloc's membership is "bound to the same set of rules when it comes to trade", the Commissioner added. He said: “If we are told steel and aluminium industry is a national threat, we have to face it as a bloc
.''

EU - you may not have noticed but the UK is NOT part of the EU anymore - well - soon.
You are on your own EU - with good friends in the UK as always.

Happy Days.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 29, 2018, 06:27:25 PM
The UK hopes to roll over 40 EU trade deals, says Liam Fox.


Quote
The UK hopes to have 40 trade arrangements with 70 countries in place by the end of the Brexit transition period in 2020, the international trade secretary has said.

Liam Fox told BBC Radio 4's Today programme he hoped to "roll over" the arrangements from the EU agreements.

He said all those countries had been spoken to and had agreed they would like that outcome.

Mr Fox said that the number of trade deals ready to go at the end of the transition period would depend on negotiations.

But he said: "We will have arrangements that we will be able to roll over from the European Union's agreements, we hope to have around 40 of those. We hope we will have all of those in place by the time we go."

"There are about 70 countries and 40 agreements. We hope all of those ones will be ready because they are extensions of what we have at the moment.

"Of course we require the agreement of the countries involved. We have spoken to all 70 countries involved. They have all given agreement that they'd like to see that in place."

"We've got 14 working groups in place with 21 countries at the present time I'd hope to make as much progress as possible because we need to have a confident and optimistic agenda for Britain's future," he said.

He said trade talks have begun with Australia, New Zealand and the US.

BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43581729)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 30, 2018, 05:28:00 PM
Caller you posted, ''I still think most of the negotiations are going fine. It's just a few headline issues that grab all the attention.''

I really hope you are right but there are so many conflicting stories around and maybe plenty of fake news. It's hard to know what's happening.

Alfie - those words from Liam Fox are very encouraging.

I'm 100% for Brexit. The EU are playing a very crafty game of denial and confusion and it is exhausting the Political system in the UK. IMO at the best of times the Govt has a lot to cope with but Brexit doubles the task.

Mrs May's Govt. is weakened and vulnerable after the Windrush scandal and the departure of Amber Rudd. Local election results this week will bring further bad news for the Tories and then what ? Any move towards a hybrid 'customs union' may cause a vote of confidence and the fall of Mrs May.

Wouldn't Brussels like that ?  Uncertain times indeed . . .

 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 13, 2018, 08:29:34 AM
From the Sunday Telegraph :-

''At least a dozen members of Theresa May’s Cabinet are lining up to block her plans for a new “customs partnership” with the European Union, The Telegraph can disclose. Two pro-Remain ministers say they were among a growing number of figures around the Cabinet table who opposed the proposals described by Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, as “crazy”. The Telegraph has now established that 12 out of a total of 28 individuals who sit in Cabinet alongside Mrs May oppose her favoured plans for Britain’s post-Brexit customs relationship with the EU. However, government sources 
believe the total could be as high as 15.
 
The disclosure, which is likely to unnerve the Prime Minister and Julian Smith, her Chief Whip, comes after 
Sajid Javid, the Home Secretary, and Gavin Williamson, the Defence Secretary, became the first Remain voters to switch sides to join Brexiteer opposition to the plans, in a meeting of the Cabinet’s Brexit sub-committee.

The full Cabinet is significantly weighted in favour of those who supported the Remain campaign in the 2016 referendum, leading Mrs May’s 
allies to believe until now that she could obtain formal approval for the plans despite objections by six out of 11 members of her Brexit sub-committee
.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/12/dozen-cabinet-ministers-set-block-theresa-mays-customs-partnership/

IF anyone wants the full script I can paste it.
I wonder how this will turn out  8)

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on June 02, 2018, 09:56:43 PM
From the DX :-

''MICHEL Barnier has lashed out at the UK declaring the European Union does "not want to negotiate" with Britain any further, slamming Theresa May's hopes for a better Brexit deal. Mr Barnier insisted all issues surrounding Brexit negotiations had been solely caused by the UK and "no one else". The EU Brexit chief negotiator hit out at Mrs May for failing to set a "clear position" for Britain's future relationship with the bloc. "It is the decision of the British to leave the union that has created the problem. No one else. Nothing else.''

"What is sometimes hard for the British to understand is that we don't want to negotiate, we don't want to compromise on who we are. They want to leave, it is their choice to leave."

IMHO, he UK is stuck in an EU quicksand and it's time to walk away.
With our £40 billion   ;)

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/968458/uk-eu-brexit-britain-michel-barnier-latest
 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on June 07, 2018, 08:12:09 AM
A politically exhausted UK is stuck in this quicksand up to the lower lip  >:(
A hard Brexit won't happen now it seems.

Mr Pritchard in the DT is very clever at being incisive and gloomy - here he is again.
A long and interesting script - but basically, in the absence of an earthquake, we're done for. ''Weep for Brexit: the British dash for independence has failed ''

''Brexiteers, bring out your black suits of mourning. Grieve with private dignity. The quixotic bid for British independence has failed. There will be no return to full sovereign and democratic self-rule in March 2019, or after the transition, or as far as the political eye can see. Britain will be bound and hemmed until the latent contradictions of such a colonial settlement cause a volcanic national uprising, as they surely must.

The Westminster class is edging crablike towards a double embrace of the EU single market and the customs union, the full EU package but without a veto in the European Council, or Euro-MPs with heft in the dominant blocs of Strasbourg,  or judges on the European Court (ECJ) to lean against top-down "Napoleonic" jurisprudence. Both of our great parties are resiling from core manifesto pledges. 

Labour has now lurched twice, first towards the customs union and this week calling for “full access to the EU’s single market”. This second step was inevitable once the party chose – for tactical advantage – to fan the flames over the Irish border. Most border checks are linked to the single market not the customs union. If you assert that the Good Friday Accord is in grave jeopardy, you have to accept both in the end and this entails the continued the rule of Euro-judges.

I strongly suspect that the Tories will be compelled by political events and cut-throat pressure from Brussels to opt for much the same formula, whatever they propose next month in their 150-page White Paper. They will discover – as would Labour in power – that the Franco-German axis aims to use its control over cliff-edge nodal points to force near total acceptance of the EU’s legal and regulatory machinery. The EU can evoke the doomsday scenario of a trade crash. It can exploit Britain’s psychological vulnerability on Ireland.

The Government has engaged in foolish bluffs. As I feared, it has fallen into the Greek Syriza trap, issuing hollow threats followed by retreat. It never took the preparations needed to make a "no-deal" walkout credible. The trade infrastructure has not been built. Nothing substantive has been done.

Theresa May has doggedly pursued her "Canada Plus" deal covering goods and services, with the holy grail of "mutual recognition", while insisting on British red lines over immigration and the ECJ. She knows that Michel Barnier has ruled out any such accord a priori, yet she has chosen not to fortify her negotiating hand.

Brussels can conclude with certainty that Britain will not take action to defend itself against a one-sided and discriminatory deal that no normal trading partner would contemplate. It will not walk out and endanger the EU’s €80bn bilateral trade surplus that it so lightly takes for granted, potentially delivering a shock powerful enough to push the eurozone back into recession and set off an existential political and financial crisis. Total capitulation on EU terms therefore looks unavoidable at the October summit.

The EU’s assertions that a "third party" deal on services is impossible, or that mutual recognition is unworkable, are of course disingenuous. Mr Barnier specifically requested both in trade talks with the US in 2014. The dispute comes down to raw power. Britain has unilaterally disarmed itself. It will suffer the consequences.   

“The Government effectively has no credible policy and the whole world knows it. By not taking the basic steps any sane Government should have taken from June 24 2016, its ‘strategy’ has imploded,” said Dominic Cummings, the former campaign chief of Vote Leave.

Mr Cummings said Theresa May’s first grave mistake was to trigger Article 50 and set the clock running before developing a coherent plan, akin to “putting a gun in your mouth and pulling the trigger”. Nothing was done to prepare for sovereign trading status. It is now too late to pursue the fall-back option of the World Trade Organisation.

“The Government has irretrievably botched this. Downing Street, the Treasury, the Cabinet Office and the Cabinet have made no such preparations and there is no intention of starting,” he wrote.

The harsh interpretation is that this was sabotage, a "trahison des clercs" in Whitehall, with the acquiescence of Remainers at No 10 and No 11. The benign verdict is that this mess reflects the narrow result of the referendum, the Scottish and Ulster fissures within the Union, and the arithmetic of Parliament. Theresa May and Philip Hammond are under crushing pressure from the big guns of the CBI, the financial press, and the City. You cannot easily take a divided nation into a showdown with the EU.

Personally, I long advocated applying to join the EEA, but only as a halfway house for five to ten years, and precisely in order to stay out of the customs union. This would have preserved good access to the single market while allowing the UK to negotiate trade deals with the US, China, Japan, India, and the rest of the world. Britain would have extracted itself from the EU in safe stages. Cliff edges would have become rolling hills.

Had the Prime Minister opted for the EEA from the start, Brexit chemistry might have been very different. She quashed the idea because it preserved EU migrant flows (with an emergency brake). Brexit was always about borders in her Home Office mind.

In the end we are likely to end up in the EEA anyway – or close enough – but on worse terms, for a different purpose, with the customs union bolted on, and after great political damage has already been done. She will probably have to swallow a high degree of free movement to get any deal at all.

It is clear that Theresa May abandoned defiance and switched to a strategy of emollience at the Brussels summit in December. That is when she stopped repeating that "no deal is better than a bad deal" and quietly agreed to "full alignment" with EU rules if need be. She signed away a large sum of money to secure goodwill.

At the Munich Security Conference in February she pledged “unconditional” support for EU defence regardless of what occurs in Brexit talks. She accepted the sway of the ECJ over crime and terrorism collaboration, in dealings with Europol, Eurojust, and over the European Arrest Warrant. This was a generous gesture since Britain is not a supplicant in defence and security. It remains the EU’s biggest military power. It defends the EU’s Baltic, Balkan, and Polish borders, and helps to anchor the US in Nato.

The post-December shift in strategy makes sense. If the UK is to go into trade talks stark naked, it is better to do so in a friendly spirit of appeasement. How far this will get us is an open question. The EU has taken a pitiless – and illegal – position over the Galileo satellite project. It deems Britain to be a security risk in an endeavour that we largely pioneered and heavily financed (pro-Putin regimes in central Europe are not?).

We have no choice other than to smile, bow, and scrape at this point. We can only trust that Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Holland, Ireland, and fellow nations, will conclude that it is not in their interests to push the punishment too far, whatever EU ideologues might want. They have to live with their near abroad. Do they want to be encircled by a hostile Britain, Turkey, and Russia, in Donald Trump’s dystopian world?

Those within Britain who have pushed so hard for an emasculated vassal Brexit may find that it is a Pyrrhic victory. It is hard to imagine a more certain way to destroy British relations with Europe than to subject this island to foreign and authoritarian rule, and to try to do so on a permanent footing.

Can the Lords not see this? Can the Soubry-Umunna axis in the Commons not see the historical and democratic absurdity of such an arrangement? Is Parliament willing to forgo its ancient prerogatives so lightly for a mess of economic potage, essentially to avoid a short-term shock of no lasting importance in the sweep of time and the life of a nation?

You can make a realpolitik calculus that the political pendulum will swing back as the EU tears itself apart over migration and the rule of law. If Britain waits patiently, the European problem might resolve itself – either because the EU ceases to exist, or because it evolves into a different animal.

One awaits with curiosity to see how the unreformed eurozone is going to weather the next global downturn, with one foot still in a Japanese deflation trap, monetary ammunition largely exhausted, debt ratios dangerously high, fiscal union not remotely in sight, and Italy in open revolt.

For now Brexiteers must fall back silently and weep
.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/06/weep-brexit-british-dash-independence-has-failed/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Coolkorat on June 07, 2018, 07:28:50 PM
This all seems to be leading to a collapse of the government, election, hung parliament and ultimately another vote on Brexit (which produces a 'remain' result). We are being kippered.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on June 07, 2018, 07:42:28 PM
CK - maybe so. In which case - kippered indeed !

It's a quicksand. We're sinking. Nil desperandum  :(
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on June 07, 2018, 10:25:25 PM
It's quite simple, but May hasn't the balls to do it, speaking metaphorically, but just walk away. Withdraw any offers to them, including money and let them get on with it.

They are good at calling others bluff. We now need to show we're serious.

If May doesn't complete this, the UK will be facing a complete breakdown in democratic trust and you will see the rise of 'populist' parties, the likes of never yet seen.

I keep wondering why Farage is so quiet?

 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on June 08, 2018, 06:09:36 AM
Caller I agree with you except for this - maybe May does have the balls to do it, but it goes against the grain of her inherent position on the EU - a dormant 'Remainer'.

Edited in later from the Guardian - “Imagine Trump doing Brexit,” Johnson said, according to the recording leaked to BuzzFeed News. “He’d go in bloody hard … There’d be all sorts of breakdowns, all sorts of chaos. Everyone would think he’d gone mad. But actually you might get somewhere. It’s a very, very good thought.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/07/boris-johnson-admits-there-may-be-a-brexit-meltdown
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on June 08, 2018, 07:06:36 AM
Caller I thought you might like to see this 'Premium' leader from the DT ?

''In normal circumstances, Boris Johnson’s leaked remarks to a group of Conservative activists would precipitate his exit from the Cabinet. Many will agree with what the Foreign Secretary had to say. Prophecies of post-Brexit doom are blown out of all proportion, he said; nevertheless there is an “argument” within the Government about how to leave, and the Brexit Britain ends up with might not be the one Brexiters want. “Unless you have the guts to go for the independent policy, you’re never going to get the economic benefits of Brexit.” This can easily be interpreted as a criticism of the prime minister.

These, however, are not normal circumstances. Consider the day the Government had yesterday. Theresa May and David Davis reportedly entered a negotiation over which negotiation stance should be taken with the EU: should the customs backstop arrangement be time limited or not? Mrs May and Mr Davis cooked up a fudge – the UK Government “expects” the backstop to last until the end of December 2021 at the latest – but here is proof that Brexiters are concerned that Britain is edging towards a compromise that will keep the country trapped within the orbit of the EU.

It’s also undeniable that Whitehall has not made plans for an alternative. Mr Johnson suggests Britain will only get what it asks and prepares imaginatively for.

Mrs May remains trapped by the consequences of the botched general election, whose anniversary falls today. So much is happening at once. In roughly the same timeframe as the G7 meeting and the next, crunch EU summit later this month, Mrs May also has to contend with the amendments made by peers to the EU Withdrawal Bill – many of which are designed to complicate matters and shift opinion towards a reversal of Brexit. It’s almost an ominious sign that Mrs May has flown out to Canada for the G7 – much can happen while prime ministers are away.

That said, Mrs May also has to answer the challenge effectively laid down by Mr Johnson in his remarks. She must reassure Brexiters that her Government understands what is required to get the best deal from Brussels but also what the possibilities are for trade if we leave in the right way. The sense of drift must end. We are exiting the EU, but to what purpose?

Mr Johnson, like many Tories, clearly yearns for some positivity and vision
.''

My 'bolds'. Interesting times  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on July 27, 2018, 08:21:19 AM
''A politically exhausted UK is stuck in this quicksand up to the lower lip  >:( ''

There seems to be little progress - the objective of the EU negotiators is to undermine any progress towards the UK actually leaving the EU - only solutions that keep the UK effectively IN the EU are acceptable ?

Caller you posted - ''just walk away. Withdraw any offers to them, including money and let them get on with it. They are good at calling others bluff. We now need to show we're serious''. I agree.

From the DT :-

''Michel Barnier effectively killed off Theresa May’s customs plan in Brussels on Thursday as he warned that the European Union would never accept British officials collecting duties on its behalf after Brexit. The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator refused to accept that Britain had “evolved its position” and he offered no concessions in return for the Prime Minister’s soft Brexit plan, which led to the resignations of David Davis and Boris Johnson after crunch Cabinet talks at Chequers.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/26/michel-barnier-shoots-theresa-mays-brexit-customs-plan/

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on July 27, 2018, 09:05:00 AM
Whether remainer or leaver, it's obvious that May has to go and go quickly. I will be honestly surprised if she lasts a week or two when Parliament returns.

She has been duplicitous and has undermined Davis at every turn. We have the shameful public facade of her mansion house speech and the reality of her cowardice and lack of conviction. She has made every mistake and fallen into every trap that she and the UK were warned of, including by many in the UK.

Even yesterday, it was still appeasement, words along the lines of more 'oportunities' and so on. She was warned her white paper was a starting point to complete capitulation and so it is proving. The only blessing is that Parliament will have to approve a deal that is the least worse, compete capitulation to a failing EU or no-deal. we now have another opportunity, right now, of walking away and telling the EU we're done, we'll wait for your proposals now, until then we'll put our feet up and relax. Of course, it won't happen

We are still - just - in a position of power here and we need to use that. Just one Country, Sweden, has been warned by it's own academic economists that a no-deal Brexit, with one of their main export markets (the UK), will cost 8200 jobs and seriously effect the Countries GDP. Now multipply that by 27.

May should sack Robbins and Hammond and metaphorically at least, grow a pair of balls. Because so far, she has been an abject failure in respect of Brexit, unless of course, this was her plan all along? Anyway, if she fails, what you will witness is the break-up of mainstream political parties in the UK (let's not even talk about the chaos in Labour) and the same 'populism' that is now witnessed elsewhere. 40% of European Government coalitions are now run, at least in part, by far right groups. Get ready for a bumpy ride.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on September 12, 2018, 08:11:14 PM
I thought this was really funny and oh SO true. A bit of juice in the DX :-

''GERMAN MEP Hans-Olaf Henkel lashed out at Michel Barnier's Brexit negotiations tactics claiming the EU chief negotiator was acting like an "Ayatollah" ignoring the implications of Brexit on the EU's economy. Speaking to Express.co.uk in Strasbourg, the German MEP said he was "disappointed" with Jean-Claude Juncker's decision to give Mr Barnier a "blank cheque" over the Brexit negotiations.''

For me, you can add Juncker and Verhofstadt to that description i.e. Ayatollah !
The EU has behaved disgracefully in these discussions IMO.
With 'friends' like this, who needs enemies . . . .  >:(

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1016481/Brexit-news-update-Michel-Barnier-EU-UK-deal-Hans-Olaf-Henkel-latest
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on September 13, 2018, 08:19:05 PM
I hope if 'no deal' comes to pass, that we WILL pay our legal obligations to the EU and that the EU WILL pay their legal obligations to the UK. That won't be £39 billion their way I imagine.

Time to stand up to the 'Ayatollahs'.

Listening to Dominic Raab today - quite impressed.
Take these Guys for the run they truly deserve . . . . . . .

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1016931/brexit-latest-news-39bn-divorce-payent-dominic-raab-theresa-may-no-deal-european-union
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on September 23, 2018, 04:07:21 PM
I wonder what you Guys think of the UK's 'progress' to Brexit ? Just MHO - the UK is in a pretty fearful position now - I believe that the EU always knew that with divisions in Parliament and in the main Parties, all they had to do was play along  >:(

The Ayatollah's of the EU have not negotiated at all and have been simply teasing Mrs May and all - they know all they have to do is find obstacles until the political will in the UK goes into vortex !

A challenge to Mrs May is unlikely and there is talk now of a General Election being called. Oh Lord ! Corbyn is in the wings  :(

One last thought - by whatever path we go - if the UK should decide to stay in the EU, can you just imagine what the heck that would be like - with 'friends' like this ?

For me, the drama of the 'leave' process shows why, to leave is essential !!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on September 23, 2018, 06:22:06 PM
I wonder what you Guys think of the UK's 'progress' to Brexit ? Just MHO - the UK is in a pretty fearful position now - I believe that the EU always knew that with divisions in Parliament and in the main Parties, all they had to do was play along  >:(

The Ayatollah's of the EU have not negotiated at all and have been simply teasing Mrs May and all - they know all they have to do is find obstacles until the political will in the UK goes into vortex !

A challenge to Mrs May is unlikely and there is talk now of a General Election being called. Oh Lord ! Corbyn is in the wings  :(

One last thought - by whatever path we go - if the UK should decide to stay in the EU, can you just imagine what the heck that would be like - with 'friends' like this ?

For me, the drama of the 'leave' process shows why, to leave is essential !!

Hi Roger,

allthough I also do not like many things within the EU at least peace and good trade have been in place for many years now. For me "Ayatollah's of the EU"is far besides the truth. The UK wanted to get out of the EU so why should the other 27 make it easy or are they all wrong? Maybe the UK has a wrong perception?? Mrs. May claims that another referendum would be against democracy but I.M.H.O. any government should do what the people want and not v.v. If the majority wants to stay in the EU do what they want and do not stick to a wrong roadmap. For me as a Dutch citizen I would welcome UK not leaving the EU but only because of our trade with your country. Isolation nowadays is not really a good situation to be in.

Anyway we will see what the outcome will be.

Have a nice day.

Robert
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on September 23, 2018, 10:36:40 PM
The EU are in a difficult position as well. Euroscepticism is on the rise and a no-deal will see almost all EU states lose jobs and a loss of GDP. I don't think too many leaders want to go back to their electorate and say, 'it's all for the good of European unity'.

The UK is leaving, that's without a doubt and it's just on what terms, if any. The EU has always expected the UK to  capitulate, the German deputy chancellor said as much the other week, that the British are above all, 'pragmatic'. Twat.

They expected concessions in Salzburg, they got none. That angered some in the EU. They want to impose new restriction on the UK in the event of accepting the so-called 'common rulebook', that wasn't well received. But at the end of the day, apart from the well recorded shoddiness of some EU politicians, nothing has actually changed. It's as you were.

Roger, it's worth remembering that the Labour party is now a nest of vipers. If Corbyn allows a few thousand trots to change tack on a 2nd vote, he will alienate the working class vote who want out. That's a big risk.

Mays talk on a new election is just politics to halp ease her path at the Tory conference. The dissenters now want her to finish negotiating Brext, but to change course, don't we all? We'll see what happens.

The treatment of May by nonenities like Tusk and Macron caused huge anger in the UK and was an unwise move. As one columnist said, the threats being made by the EU are what you would expect from a Country about to declare war, not supposed allies and I agree with that.

It's still odds on the Eurozone won't survive the next financial crisis, there is still trouble brewing in Italy, QE ends in December which will leave Italy very exposed, even Merkels no longer secure, Macrons popularity is at rock bottom and there is still a chance the EU will split over Brexit. Good.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on September 23, 2018, 10:41:25 PM
The UK is leaving, that's without a doubt and it's just on what terms, if any.

That's it in a nutshell.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on September 24, 2018, 05:08:30 AM
Hello Robert. Thanks for your thoughts.

As for 'peace' - IMO NATO is much more important to peace in Europe than the EU. A new EU 'army' is often mooted and even an EU nuclear deterrent - to me that's bizarre - NATO has been instrumental in ensuring peace in Europe for 70 years now. If other EU nations, not just the UK, had spent 2% of their Budgets on defence, NATO would still be dominant. To me it defies reason why say, the Germans, relatively affluent as they are, cannot fulfill this obligation and I understand why Mr Trump is animated about it.

I'd guess that an EU Defence force would cost EU Nations a lot more for than a top up to 2% ?

As for trade, I understand that the EU exports a massive amount more to the UK than vice versa - so I understand that concern . . .

Voters in the Referendum knew that the result would be binding and voted on that basis. The argument for another consensus now is complicated but I see both sides.

After Britain's unquestionable sacrifices with the USA in liberating Holland and others from the Germans, I'm surprised you don't mention the loyalty and friendship between our 2 Nations.

The EU should help the UK achieve an orderly exit - if a Member wants to leave a Club, why make obstacles ?

Enjoyed thinking about that  ;D  ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on September 24, 2018, 05:26:31 AM
Caller - spot on ! ''Euroscepticism is on the rise'', even in Holland I believe. 

And : ''The UK is leaving, that's without a doubt and it's just on what terms, if any.'' I'd love to believe that this is true and I hope you are right . . . But . .

Plenty to watch in Corbyn's Labour Party as you say ! ATB
 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on September 24, 2018, 06:39:54 AM
Hello Robert. Thanks for your thoughts.

As for 'peace' - IMO NATO is much more important to peace in Europe than the EU. A new EU 'army' is often mooted and even an EU nuclear deterrent - to me that's bizarre - NATO has been instrumental in ensuring peace in Europe for 70 years now. If other EU nations, not just the UK, had spent 2% of their Budgets on defence, NATO would still be dominant. To me it defies reason why say, the Germans, relatively affluent as they are, cannot fulfill this obligation and I understand why Mr Trump is animated about it.

I'd guess that an EU Defence force would cost EU Nations a lot more for than a top up to 2% ?

As for trade, I understand that the EU exports a massive amount more to the UK than vice versa - so I understand that concern . . .

Voters in the Referendum knew that the result would be binding and voted on that basis. The argument for another consensus now is complicated but I see both sides.

After Britain's unquestionable sacrifices with the USA in liberating Holland and others from the Germans, I'm surprised you don't mention the loyalty and friendship between our 2 Nations.

The EU should help the UK achieve an orderly exit - if a Member wants to leave a Club, why make obstacles ?

Enjoyed thinking about that  ;D  ATB

Hi Roger,

peace for 70 years due to Nato? Wish I could agree but for example look at fighting in former Yugoslavia (Kosovo/Serbs etc). Have a look at the Baltic States, have been there. Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Prague Spring. Any issues can now be discussed and not by fighting. Did not mention liberation of Europe but for sure people are still grafefull. Even at a football match at Vitesse the veterans of Market Garden were remembered and honoured. It is not that the people of our countries cannot get along, that is not the problem. For me the people in charge (who once elected have a tendency to not follow-up on their promises) are creating the problems. I keep saying that power corrupts and the benches in parlement are too soft.

That Europarlement is a big offence to me and a waste of money. Have said it before and will repeat it here. Open borders for trade and movement of people worked out great. Introduction of the Euro without any possibility to devaluate in a country like Greece was the biggest mistake made ever. The economic refugees neither of the EU countries want should be stopped and those economic refugees should immediately be send back to the countries where they came form. If people escape warzones arrange adequate facilities in the neighbouring countries so they can return to their own country when it is safe again. I can understand people who flee if they want a safe place for their children end themselves but countries cannot take in all people.

Anyway I have stopped thinking I could change the world for the better but believe me then on this: the world is not black and white, many gray areas and there are always different sides depending upon where you are coming from and what you believe.

Have a nice day,
Robert
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on September 24, 2018, 07:53:34 AM
Hi Robert, thanks for that.

I agree with you about EU Parliaments and Immigration - in fact, before DC took the 'Referendum' decision, he made strenuous efforts to discuss constructive changes in the EU and was firmly rebuffed  :(

Yep ! Grey areas everywhere. ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on September 24, 2018, 12:06:49 PM
before DC took the 'Referendum' decision, he made strenuous efforts to discuss constructive changes in the EU and was firmly rebuffed  :(

Over 30 proposals put forward by the UK for change in the EU have been rejected. In fact, we have never ever had one accepted. Fish out of water and all that. De Gaulle actually understood that.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on September 24, 2018, 12:15:12 PM
The Ayatollah's of the EU
For me "Ayatollah's of the EU"is far besides the truth

Robert, my answer to this point was removed from the forum. I'm obliged to send it to you by PM. I'm afraid you haven't realised yet that you're wasting your time here.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on September 26, 2018, 02:38:34 PM
Robert, my answer to this point was removed from the forum. I'm obliged to send it to you by PM. I'm afraid you haven't realised yet that you're wasting your time here.

From my experiences and observations, anybody who thinks they can persuade someone with an oposing view on Brexit to change their view of it, is wasting their time. It seems to me that minds are made up one way of the other.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on September 26, 2018, 02:43:29 PM
Labour's Keir Starmer: "nobody is ruling out remain as an option”.

Hopefully that will rule Labour out of government if there is an election before we exit the EU next year. Not that I expect there will be an election before Brexit actually happens. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Coolkorat on September 26, 2018, 04:08:18 PM
Labour's Keir Starmer: "nobody is ruling out remain as an option”.

Hopefully that will rule Labour out of government if there is an election before we exit the EU next year. Not that I expect there will be an election before Brexit actually happens.

I'm not so sure about the election Alfie. I think the Tory party might move to push Teresa May out and she will call an election as a consequence (on the basis that any replacement will need a clear mandate from the British people). Labour might believe they have a chance, but the hawks in the party are organising themselves to oust Corbyn (and McDonnell) and replace with Tom Watson. In the meantime, the Liberal Democrats have probably been busy. The result may well be a hung parliament with the Liberals holding the whip hand again and siding with Watson's Labour. In which case, there will be another referendum, or possibly just a flat reversal of Article 50. So, Watson as PM, ?Lib? as deputy PM, and Jacob Rees-Mogg as Leader of the Opposition.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on September 26, 2018, 05:19:24 PM
Given what happened the last time the Tories called a snap election, I think it would be risky and foolish to do it again any time soon but I think that if Tories really want to get rid of May as PM, they will do it after March 2019.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on September 26, 2018, 10:25:42 PM
Labour might believe they have a chance, but the hawks in the party are organising themselves to oust Corbyn (and McDonnell) and replace with Tom Watson. In the meantime, the Liberal Democrats have probably been busy. The result may well be a hung parliament with the Liberals holding the whip hand again and siding with Watson's Labour. In which case, there will be another referendum, or possibly just a flat reversal of Article 50. So, Watson as PM, ?Lib? as deputy PM, and Jacob Rees-Mogg as Leader of the Opposition.

I don't mean to be disrespectful but none of this is going to happen. What Hawks in the Labour party, who are they? Watson is sidelined as deputy, he wasn't even give a slot to make a speech at the conference. He's not a part of Momentum and Momentum dominate Labour and the NEC. The old Labour has gone for ever.

I think there is clear concern about the electability of Corbyn and he could face suspension from Parliament based on the various investigations he is facing, especially undeclared and financed trips to meet his terrorist mates and McDonnell has distanced himself from Corbyn recently. He also gave a speech at conference stating any new referendum would not have the option of staying in the EU, which was subsequently challenged by Starmer - at conference - where it got huge cheers, but away from the fan club I doubt Starmer will get his way. The working class vote would collapse. 

The Lib dems are dead in the water. What might happen is that Labour moderates could leave to form a new centrist party with the Lib Dems. You have to question why all those being threatened, ignored, keeping quiet about what is happening in Labour, are actually going to do? Most who have spoken, albeit anonymously, say they see their most important role as being to stop Brexit - so much for democracy and the fact they represent many, many areas where the vote was to leave - but they have said that after that is resolved or a dead duck, they will make their move. I think that is shameful, so I don't care a jot what happens to them. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on September 27, 2018, 02:30:56 PM
CK - I enjoyed your predictions  ???
Maybe your scenario is as likely as any other, but I believe there are many possible outcomes. The UK is politically exhausted. Both Conservatives and Labour embrace a whole spectrum of brexit positions. It'll be really difficult if/when something gets to Parlaiment.

Alfie and Anton - I agree that most tend to be either convinced 'leavers' or 'remainers' - there seems to be 'no mans land' between the two. But I don't think it's a waste of time to discuss it and Robert made some good points IMO.

If the Govt. start to go down the 'hard' route - I wonder how the Ayatollah's will react? So far the UK has tried to be amenable and that hasn't gone down well . .
As we start to assert our position - I see trouble  :o
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 05, 2018, 03:45:31 PM
Well done Unilever  ;D   ;D   ;D.

Unilever seem to know on what side their bread is buttered - with Marmite too  :P

Bravo Unilever. Time to thrash aside these Brexit doubts and go for Canada +++

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/05/unilever-scraps-plan-move-london-rotterdam-uk-netherlands
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on October 05, 2018, 03:50:58 PM
So Roger, Canada +, meaning a hard border in Ireland?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 05, 2018, 04:02:49 PM
Hi Teess. That post was just for fun really.

However - reports are that Donald Tusk has spoken about a Canada +++ nature of deal which may involve some procedures somewhere - maybe in the Irish sea.

The target is surely for the whole of the UK to get out of the Customs Union and all it entails so we'll see if a deal emerges.

What do you think about the 'Dancing Queen' these days ? Has your view changed at all ?

ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on October 05, 2018, 05:02:13 PM
Irish sea border would pose huge problems. DUP would oppose it, May opposes it and Scotland opposes it. Could lead to break up of UK? May has done well to still be PM but she comes across poorly. Did you see her interview with Andrew Marr about the N. Ireland border? Tory alternatives to May are frightening though, Johnson, Hunt, Javid or Dumb, Dumber and Dumbest. Corbyn provides little opposition. 1 of the 2 main parties needs to support the peoples vote campaign so we can end this lamentable escapade and raise the £ value against the baht to nearer 50 than 40.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 05, 2018, 07:46:33 PM
Allthough Brexit is a British issue do hope a simple Dutchman is allowed to react  ;D ;D ;D

I live in Thailand since beginning of 2007 and do know what rates were in 2008 because I build house in that year. Euro was approximately 50 Thb and pound was Thb 70!!!!
So of course I can understand that British people would like to see a raise for the UK pound to the Thb. However 66.000.000 persons in UK are using the pound while 337.000.000 persons in EU countries are using the Euro so could we also get a better rate for the Euro versus Thb too  :D :D :D.

Population EU countries I found here: http://www.worldometers.info/population/countries-in-the-eu-by-population/ (http://www.worldometers.info/population/countries-in-the-eu-by-population/). To be correct I only counted the countries which actually use the Euro.

Robert
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 05, 2018, 09:32:38 PM
Considering that Irish exports to the US & UK are greater than to the whole of the EU combined, it makes sense for Ireland to leave the EU and I see a movement has just started to press for that.

But the reality in respect of the Irish border is that where there is a will, there is a way. At the moment, the EU are still holding out that Brexit won't happen and this is one of their bargaining chips. Once the fanatics at the EU commission + Macron and Merkel, understand the game is up, you would hope their stance would change. Otherwise, the Irish would once again find themselves being shafted by the EU.

Ironically, Merkel could have resigned by the time Brexit happens and Macron is not exactly popular in his own Country, a no-deal Brexit might well see him 'fall' on his own petard (with any luck), so who knows what will happen? Not Juncker, that's for sure.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Hector on October 06, 2018, 06:42:49 AM
Robert.  Actually in 2008 the baht was worth just over 65 to the pound for only a couple of months in the middle of the year.  Prior to that it was between 60 and 65 and it ended the year dipping below 60.  You did well to get 70! 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 06, 2018, 08:11:36 AM
Robert - Dutch people are not simple ! It's a great Country IMO.

Difficult to know where the exchange rates will end up - I'm not sure population numbers are a big factor in the outcome. It'll be political stability and economic performance won't it ?

Caller - love those thoughts. If only  ;D

Teess - Just MO but Mrs May has shown incredible resilience in the most demanding of circumstances. Under 24 hour spotlight and examination - it's hard to be perfect all the time. I don't think a 'people's vote' will necessarily help the £ - maybe send it plunging again ! (BTW B43 again on XE - so creeping up atm).

B70 would be just great LOL
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 06, 2018, 08:54:22 AM
Robert.  Actually in 2008 the baht was worth just over 65 to the pound for only a couple of months in the middle of the year.  Prior to that it was between 60 and 65 and it ended the year dipping below 60.  You did well to get 70!

Hi Hector,

I used Euro not Pound and in 2008 got 51 Thb for one Euro when building our house. The pound has been around 70 but do not know exact date. To be complete I never changed pounds to Thb.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 06, 2018, 09:31:07 AM
Robert - Dutch people are not simple ! It's a great Country IMO.

Difficult to know where the exchange rates will end up - I'm not sure population numbers are a big factor in the outcome. It'll be political stability and economic performance won't it ?


Hi Roger,

of course I know that poltical stability and economic performance are important, I am not that simple  ;D ;D ;D.  Because to non-economic performance of Greece (and other southern Europe countries but it started with Greece) the value of the Euro dropped. Only mentioned population to state that more persons would benefit from a higher rate for Euro versus Thb. Personaly I think that countries are not being ruled anymore by politicians but by money traders. If you see how many times exchange rates change during the day it is perfectly clear to me those money traders have a big influence on everybody lives. Even if somebody says something which is not even approved rates go up and down. Those money traders simply make money by switching amounts quickly. I was against fixed exchange rates from local currencies to the Euro. If a EU country which uses the Euro does not well no devaluation of their currency possible anymore.

Have a nice day,

Robert
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 07, 2018, 09:09:33 AM
Robert something new is afoot in the discussions . .  Any ideas ?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 07, 2018, 09:43:08 AM
Robert something new is afoot in the discussions . .  Any ideas ?

Hi Roger,

only if you have a timemachine so we could go back to the days before introducing the Euro. Not with fixed amounts but every country keeps its own currency and if you go on holiday or business exchange your local currency to Euro's and pay with Euro's in all countries you visit. Meaning when you go by car from The Netherlands through Germany, through France, etc. pay with Euro. After returning home exchange your Euro's back to local currency. Advantage: no coins etc. from all countries which are never to be used again and bear no value.
If a country then does not well devaluation would still be possible meaning you would have to pay less or more depending on daily exchange rates between Euro and local currency.

Anyway only a dream and not possible anymore  :( :( :(

Robert
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 07, 2018, 05:45:47 PM
Crikey Robert the Euro is another BIG subject. I think most Brits are still delighted that the UK stayed out of the Euro and it seems that the southern EU Nations would have done better OUT of the Euro too? But I like your ideas . . . No time machine I'm afraid.

I was actually referring to some as yet unspecified big move forward initiated by Donald Tusk, in the Brexit 'negotiations' - the UK media are babbling about it. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 07, 2018, 06:51:46 PM
I was actually referring to some as yet unspecified big move forward initiated by Donald Tusk, in the Brexit 'negotiations' - the UK media are babbling about it. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

I still feel the most likely utcome is a no deal.

Any new offers from the EU will mean more compromises from May and I doubt she will succeed in getting any through Parliament, even if she tried, which I doubt she will. It's quite significant, in my opinion, that any such offer from the EU has emerged after the party conference season, so the EU will, if they have read the signals right, which I doubt, believe they have identified areas they can exploit.

Anyway, considering all the talk above about the Euro, it's worth pointing out that Italy have started their challenge to the EU and have increased pensions and welfare to an extent that their deficit and GDP will increase and already Juncker has started making threatening noises. He can't win and it's empty rhetoric, but it's not good news, especially in a week when Moody's predicted that the Euro will not survive tne next financial crisis - and that could be brought on by Italy.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 14, 2018, 01:18:09 PM
When the problem of the N.Ireland border first came up, some contend that it would have been better to point out the inevitability of some checks, somehow, somewhere and to have stated so bluntly to the DUP and all, that that was the case, 'like it or not' - so 'how do we cope with it ?''.

A border of some sort was inevitable then and is now. By trying to appease from the start, the Tories have enabled the EU to play this card righteously to the death . . .

Caller I agree with this, ''I still feel the most likely outcome is a no deal.''
Reports of EU concessions were of course not well founded.

In the Grauniad today:-

Has Theresa May finally run out of Brexit road?
''A former Tory cabinet minister with decades of experience of epic parliamentary battles over Europe had this to say last week about Theresa May’s current Brexit conundrum: “I cannot for the life of me see how she can get any sort of deal done with Brussels that stands the slightest chance of passing through parliament.” Without a working majority, and reliant on the increasingly troublesome Democratic Unionist party (DUP) for support, he believed that the prime minister’s position was becoming more impossible by the day''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/13/has-theresa-may-run-out-brexit-options-eu-leaders
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 15, 2018, 06:30:27 AM
From the DT's headline article today :-

''Theresa May puts the brakes on customs union deal with Brussels.

Theresa May refused to endorse a draft Brexit deal negotiated by UK and EU officials on Sunday night amid fears that her Cabinet would fail to back the plan. British officials led by Ollie Robbins, the Government’s chief negotiator, are understood to have struck an agreement on a detailed proposal which would effectively mean Britain remains part of the EU’s customs union for the foreseeable future. It is the first time a Brexit blueprint had been agreed by both sets of negotiators.''

If this is true, caller's 'likely outcome' comes closer ?

(No link - that's all we have access to)      . . . .
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 15, 2018, 08:27:19 AM
BJ's comment on the impasse :-

''There comes a point when you have to stand up to bullies. After more than two years of being ruthlessly pushed around by the EU, it is time for the UK to resist. With painful politeness, we have agreed to the EU’s timetable for discussions. We have consented to hand over huge quantities of taxpayers’ money – £39bn of it. We have quite properly volunteered to protect the rights of EU nationals in the UK. So far we have nothing to show for our generosity and understanding. We are now entering the moment of crisis. Matters cannot go on as they are.''

(DT).
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 15, 2018, 02:06:21 PM
Should have listened to Varafoukis. It's all there in his book. The lies, the deceit, the manipulation and bullying. It has worked everytime for the EU - so far - in Ireland, Italy and so on.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 19, 2018, 03:56:15 PM
That's about it Caller - Varafoukis had their number OK !

The EU seem to think they have Mrs May by the scruff of the neck - from the Guardian :-

The same problems remain, and it is up to the British to sort out the mess,” an EU official said. “I trust you haven’t got any plans for Christmas.”  Smug ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/18/brexit-unpalatable-truths-for-dinner-at-eu-summit

Encouragingly I recent heard a comment that, in the event of 'no deal', the EU will INSTRUCT Ireland to assert border controls !  ;)  That'll be fun for Mr Varadkar  ;)

Can listen to the silky Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC radio's 'Today' at 08.35 approx.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 19, 2018, 11:35:11 PM
Even at this late stage, May can just walk away. Simply say, 'we have done all we  can'  and the ball is now in your court.

I hate Chequers with a vengance, but you know the EU are taking the proverbial when they talk of not being able to 'legalise' May's plans. EU history has ample proof of ignoring what is or what isn't legal when it suits them, from the creation of the Euro (illegal) to Merkels unilateral 'let them all in' (illegal). Personally, if I was May, I would have been bigging up these examples and more in press conferences and to the liars very faces and put them on the spot and should Juncker open his mouth in protest, just reply with 'Selmayr' and stare him down. But she is too much of a wimp to do that.

The EU do not want a no-deal, so let them come up with a plan to avoid it.

Or simply get rid of May.


Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 20, 2018, 07:20:40 AM
Personnally I think it is far too easy to look at this subject from only one side. The world is not black and white you know. Opinions always depend on what side you are supporting. I am not fond of EU either but I think if I would search I also could come up with examples when it worked in favour of participating countries including the UK.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 20, 2018, 08:04:06 AM
Robert - undoubtedly what you post is true - but it's on the balance of matters that the Brits voted to leave.

The UK's 'exit' process is in a real muddle now - which is exactly what the Ayatollahs wanted . .  :o
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on October 20, 2018, 08:43:09 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/O3fb8EY.gif)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 20, 2018, 01:11:16 PM
Very funny Anton - I'd like to think you are targeting the EU Ayatollahs with that cartoon but previous experience leads me to think otherwise.

Since you last got upset, your frequent postings have been very much missed, not least by me.

However, if you disagree with any discussion, it would IMHO be good to hear what your thoughts are. Just being disruptive without responding to a point is asinine to say the least.

I hope you can drop this unreasoned bitterness and contribute in a friendly way on K-F. I'm guessing that Admin haven't seen this latest brainwave of yours yet . . .

As for ''Village idiots unwelcome here'' well maybe so  ;)

Cheer up FGS. ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 21, 2018, 04:04:44 PM
Hi Roger,

maybe you missed this article from the Grauniad? https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/20/70000-demand-new-brexit-vote (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/20/70000-demand-new-brexit-vote) Interesting to read allthough you probably disagree  ;D ;D ;D.

Regards,
Robert

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 21, 2018, 04:14:06 PM
Hi Robert. NO I did see it  GGGGrrrrrrrrr   >:(  I agree it's a good report. 

Alistair bl**dy Campbell was holding forth on the radio and was neatly reminded that more than 1,000,000 marched in protest against the second Iraq war - Parliament took no notice.

Brexit is a very controversial subject invoking passion on both sides. Strategically disabled as per the EU's plan, our exhausted Politico now stagger towards chaos - I don't see how Theresa May's Govt. can survive. ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 21, 2018, 09:45:10 PM
I don't see how Theresa May's Govt. can survive. ATB

She can only survive if she changes tack. Something that to date she has shown no inclination to do and whilst a small minority of Londoners might march for a 2nd vote, the mood in the rest of the Country is very different. The danger for May and Labour, is that if they fail to deliver on Brexit - and Chequers is a pack of lies, see Lilley's article in today's Telegraph - then the only winners will be the more extreme parties.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on October 22, 2018, 12:05:27 AM
maybe you missed this article from the Grauniad? https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/20/70000-demand-new-brexit-vote (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/20/70000-demand-new-brexit-vote)

Thank you for the link Robert.

a small minority of Londoners

That's not what the article says. It says: "700,000 people from all over the UK (...) The number who descended on the capital to call for a 'people’s vote' exceeded all expectations of both the organisers and police". One of the interviewee "made a four-hour car journey from Stockport to take part". And it also says that "Another pro-remain rally took place in Northern Ireland on Saturday", while "A pro-Brexit counter-protest in Harrogate, organised by Nigel Farage, was attended by roughly 1,200 people"...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 22, 2018, 10:55:23 PM
a small minority of Londoners

That's not what the article says. It says: "700,000 people from all over the UK (...) The number who descended on the capital to call for a 'people’s vote' exceeded all expectations of both the organisers and police". One of the interviewee "made a four-hour car journey from Stockport to take part". And it also says that "Another pro-remain rally took place in Northern Ireland on Saturday", while "A pro-Brexit counter-protest in Harrogate, organised by Nigel Farage, was attended by roughly 1,200 people"...

Proves my point really. From a near 9m London population, if you believe the figures.

So from a UK population of 65m, they achieved an alleged estimate of 670,000.

My mate was working as a cabbie in central London on the day, an ardent brexiteer, he gave them merry hell when he could!



 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on October 23, 2018, 03:06:00 PM
Why stop at two Anton? Why not have three or four? Seems a bit pointless though. We had a referendum. We all know the result. The UK will leave the EU. There is no turning back.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 23, 2018, 08:13:28 PM
2. Or, if that was not the case, because then there wouldn't be any sense in holding any more referenda in your country at all, on any topic at all (RIP for good British democracy †)

British democracy would die if the vote was overturned in anyway, which is why no-one from Labour was out supporting the risible 'peoples vote'.

Clearly your understanding of our democracy, being a first past the post system, is beyond your comprehension. The same as it's beyond our comprehension that in other votes where Countries voted no to more Europe, the EU then applied pressure on the various Countries, until they forced a reversal of the original 'no' decision.

British politicians are only too aware that should that happen in the UK, that the mainstream political parties will lose all credibility and support and the whole political system will be in disarray.

In my opinion, Europeans should be worried about the EU's fanaticism for their project, which should they not be prepared to compromise, will lead to a no-deal. As much as you are concerned about the possible future of the UK in such an event, you really should be worried about the effects more closer to home, not least the disunity that will result from such a no-deal.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on October 23, 2018, 08:48:04 PM
Caller, you state that Labour showed no support in the London march for a people's vote. Well my MP was there and he was not the only one. Brexit is an utter shambles, nobody voted for this, and I can't understand why we want our economy trashed, our pound devalued, and the real possibilty of the break-up of the UK. What do you suggest happens to the Irish border?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 24, 2018, 02:38:43 PM
That's quite a singular way of seeing things (that British democracy would die because of that). But the only thing that counts here is that you admit that a second vote could actually overturn the situation, despite what you just maintained in your previous posts. All the rest is your usual biased and largely ungrounded blah-blah. Next time don't forget to tell us how many babies those EU fanatics are having for dinner everyday!

I admit to being singular in respect of wanting the UK out and with either a good deal or no deal. Nothing I say is unfounded. I read and research a lot about the EU daily and understand many of the underlying issues, not just the headlines. I assume your anti-Brexit rhetoric is because of your concerns about the effect on Belgium if a no-deal? I can understand that.

And please tell me where I said a 2nd vote would overturn Brexit? I don't believe that for one minute. The overriding desire in the UK is to get on with it. But it's an irrelevance as there won't be one.

Despite your usual insults, I have yet to see you counter anything I have said with facts.

Tees - apologies, I should have said Labour leaders were absent. Many good reasons for that, not least that Brexit suits them. As for NI, do what May has been advised time and time again - walk away from the negotiations ot change tack (please). If there is a no deal, there will still be an issue that needs resolving at the Irish border and the EU can either isolate Ireland, or get realistic about the situation. Most of Irelands trade is with the US and UK, the EU will be shooting themselves in the foot if they insist on a hard border and Ireland might wonder about the benefits of remaining? After all the EU isn't going to offer financial aid to support them, are they?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 24, 2018, 05:58:45 PM
Just MO - it would NOT be right to hold a Second Referendum - it was pointedly emphasised time and again in 2016 that 'it' was a one off and the UK voted on balance to leave. If there is a Second Referendum - reports unsurprisingly differ on what the result would be. Best to forget that idea.

However, in effect, there is likely to be another vote is there not ? The House of Commons will look like a warzone before too long, with neither Tories nor Labour united enough to endorse the 'Deal' that the EU don't accept anyway ! Perhaps it may result in a General Election being called early.

Anton we don't think the EU 'Ayatollah's' eat Babies for Dinner - at the moment, they're not hungry, after eating Theresa May for breakfast . . .  ;)

Teess - good to see your views - I really don't think Brexit will be a disaster as you do. At the moment, 'Project Fear' is rampant with every possible thing that could go wrong, being headlined out of all proportion and particularly by the good ole' Beeb ! We'll see . . . .

France 24 is my only TV News Channel and they are wildly anti-Brexit. I was surprised to see a feature on the fishing industry in the UK which seemed to deal with the issue objectively. Now there's more to Brexit than the Fishing Industry but here's one example, of how the UK's interests seem to have been comprehensively and unendingly squashed, despite all efforts, as a Member of the EU . . .

https://www.france24.com/en/20181019-reporters-video-brexit-sea-uncertainty-fishermen-eu-uk-waters-quota-fish

No rude replies please anyone  ;)  ATB







Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 24, 2018, 06:02:20 PM
If there is a no deal, there will still be an issue that needs resolving at the Irish border and the EU can either isolate Ireland, or get realistic about the situation. Most of Irelands trade is with the US and UK, the EU will be shooting themselves in the foot if they insist on a hard border and Ireland might wonder about the benefits of remaining? After all the EU isn't going to offer financial aid to support them, are they?


Hi Caller,

hm I thought the EU does NOT want a hard border. Just Googled and found following text:

From the Sun:

Brussels has made it clear it will not accept custom checks on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, while Theresa May has ruled out cutting off the north from the rest of the UK. Here's how the negotiations have played out.


From the Grauniad:
What is the EU’s position?
The EU has proposed legal text that establishes “a common regulatory area” between Ireland and the UK in Northern Ireland, in other words a special deal for Northern Ireland.


The UK’s independent factchecking charity:

The EU proposed a “common regulatory area” comprising the EU and Northern Ireland, and that the “territory of Northern Ireland” (excluding territorial waters) be considered to be inside the Customs Union. This would mean that Northern Ireland would still effectively be inside the customs union, even if the rest of the UK was out. This would mean there would be no need for checks at the Irish border, but there could be checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

In the same month, Theresa May said: “Just as it would be unacceptable to go back to a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland [after Brexit], it would also be unacceptable to break up the United Kingdom’s own common market by creating a customs and regulatory border down the Irish Sea.” She described this as her “personal commitment”.




Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dam12641 on October 25, 2018, 08:44:24 AM
Can't see what the fuss is about. The UK can simply say, "We won't be setting up passport/customs checks at the NI/Ireland border. If the EU want to then that's up to them."
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 25, 2018, 09:18:13 AM
Dam - posted earlier - ''When the problem of the N.Ireland border first came up . . . it would have been better to point out the inevitability of some checks . . . and to have stated so bluntly to the DUP and all, that that was the case, 'like it or not' - so 'how do we cope with it ?''. A border of some sort was inevitable then and is now. By trying to appease from the start, the Tories have enabled the EU to play this card righteously to the death . . .''.

'' 'Project Fear' is rampant with every possible thing that could go wrong, being headlined out of all proportion . . .''

I agree with your post 08.44 100% - let's GO UK !
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on October 25, 2018, 12:02:56 PM
Reading is also a gift. The EU does NOT want a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, at least that is my understanding. So why keep blaming EU for something they also do not want to happen? At least there is peace now in that area.

Anyway I will quit this topic and leave it to the pro-Brexiteers so you can all agree  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 25, 2018, 02:40:36 PM
Robert the feeling is that the EU have been difficult about any proposal the UK makes - knowing it's a sensitive matter . . . it's MO the UK should have been stronger from the start . . .

You'd better not leave the topic - your posts are welcomed - whatever your view. And I think it's 3 posters on each side atm  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 25, 2018, 09:58:30 PM
Robert, the EU proposals to avoid a hard border are to separate the sovereign state that is the United Kingdom into two parts. The land mass of England, Wales and Scotland being one part and the land mass of Ireland being the other, with NI being treated differently to the rest of the UK. That is unacceptable to the UK, understandably and personally, I find it contemptuous that the EU feel they have the right to interfere with sovereign borders.

What the EU are worried about is goods entering the UK/EU illegally across the Irish border.

So the UK and EU both want a soft border but can't agree how it should be done. I accept my wording wasn't great, but I am jumping from pillar to post here. The point I was badly trying to make, is that if an agreement can't be reached, then a hard border will exist!

To most laymen this is nuts but that's what politicians are.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on October 26, 2018, 10:43:07 AM
That's quite a singular way of seeing things (that British democracy would die because of that).

I admit to being singular in respect of wanting the UK out and with either a good deal or no deal.

Caller, please don't try to twist the meaning of words too much. And no, you're not singular in that respect ("wanting the UK out and with either a good deal or no deal"); in that respect you're just another die hard British nationalist.


you admit that a second vote could actually overturn the situation

And please tell me where I said a 2nd vote would overturn Brexit?

In my understanding, your reply no. 410 as a whole is implying the possibility that a second vote "could" overturn the situation, as I wrote (I didn't write "would").


Despite your usual insults, I have yet to see you counter anything I have said with facts.

Caller, if accusing you of too much blah-blah is an insult, please accept my apologies. Is it ok if I say too much rant instead of too much blah-blah? Teessider and Robert already countered things you said with facts. Personally, to my eyes you lost credibility as an "expert on European affairs", or as a political analyst in general, when you hinted that there's nothing wrong with populism in a democracy (here (http://korat-farang.com/forum/index.php?topic=8071.msg68972#msg68972)), and when we found out that you didn't even know the meaning of Benelux. To my eyes you're just another die hard British nationalist, no less fanatic than those you accuse in Brussels. Except that those in Brussels are trying (or were trying, alas) to build something, amidst all difficulties, false attempts, bad moves typical of any human institution; you brexiteers are just demolishing something, always the easiest thing to do, the main course offered by populists and demagogues anytime anywhere. You brexiteers are like mules with blinkers: you keep missing the larger picture, the global geopolitical stakes; in particular, you totally underestimate the peace and security factor. First you decided to walk out because "nobody was listening to you": childish and untrue because the former British Prime Minister had already obtained enough guarantees to make him change his mind about Brexit. Now you're all there, longing for a no-deal walkout like dogs for a bone, totally underestimating the possible consequences. Just think of the English Channel fishing dispute, for example. You want facts? Here are the facts: only 2 months ago new clashes between French and British fishermen, to the point that the French Navy vowed to intervene next time. Do you brexiteers realize what that means? The impression is no, you don't realize at all, stranded out there in that galaxy of yours as you are.

The EU is far from being perfect but at least it guaranteed peace and security in Europe for many years now. Is that too little in your eyes? Remember former Yugoslavia. So now Brexit contributed in opening a large crack in the EU, which may very well bring to instability and a concrete threat to peace, while serving the interest of other world Powers. Something British people, misled by populist leaders, can really go proud of. Yet another historical mischievousness for the records.

You have the nerve to criticize Brussels for being too authoritative on EU members, even in a fanatic way! Who are the fanatics here? Don't you know about the global economic situation? When it comes to financial austerity, all Brussels is saying is: "Guys, lean kines are looming ahead, we need to act as ants rather than as grasshoppers for a while, we don't want other Greek style tumbles to happen. Club members please conform or you'll face sanctions." Is that fanaticism? On the other hand, what are pro-Brexit leaders imposing on all of the British people, including the Scots and N. Irish right now? "Guys, we cheated you into voting out, and out we'll bring you no matter what. Even if you've opened your eyes in the meanwhile, even if you're concerned about banging the door out, forget about any chance of a second vote." Is that a greater or a lesser fanaticism? And please stop bringing up the pathetic arguments that nobody but you can understand British democracy, or the reasons behind Brexit, etc. Like it or not, we're all on the same boat.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on October 26, 2018, 12:02:46 PM
Anton, the UK leaving the EU is not destroying anything. The EU wil still exist, just without the UK as a member. Perhaps other countries will join the EU in future. There is no destruction, just change.

I don't see any evidence of change in the "global geopolitical stakes" you mention.

Anyway, whatever will be will be. Brexit will happen. The best way for it happen is amicably.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 26, 2018, 05:53:49 PM

Anton, you can call me or my Country anything you want, as you mean nothing to me. You are not a friend, acquaintance or anything else. For what it's worth, I don't regard myself as a die-hard British nationalist at all. I never have and never will. For a start, I'm English - lol. But the fact you use the word as an insult, say’s everything about your views on Brexit.

And on another subject, do tell me, what is so wrong with populism? It's a stupid patronising word with a stupid meaning used by illiberals to insult others, who they clearly feel are of the lowest common denominator, and thus don't have the ability to understand the bigger picture in the ‘real World’.  A bit like you really, judging by your comments. Therefore everyone who voted for Brexit is obviously a racist little nationalist, apart from all the immigrants who voted leave, presumably? I wonder when people talk like this, what they think of the politicians, academics, economists and business leaders who openly voted for Brexit.  The Brexit vote to leave was never a populist vote in any case.

But the reality and truth in a democracy, is that one person’s vote, irrespective of their opinions or views, is a vote equal to any other vote, even if an individual chooses to vote the way they have, purely on a single issue.

I find it astonishing that you think that people who voted for Brexit are not clued up about the ‘bigger geo-political picture’ (to cut a long story short). Way to go Anton, insult over 17m people. The daft thing is, I think it is precisely for those reasons, that contributed to our leaving. That we do actually see the much bigger geo-political picture (admittedly no-one foresaw Trump) and that the direction the EU is heading proves it doesn’t. I mean, you only have to look at Greece to see a wholly unnecessary act of barbarism inflicted upon its own people that will damage the Country for the next 40 years. God only knows what it would do to its enemies – oh wait, that’s us!

This takes me to the waffle about peace and security, where you forget to mention NATO. Which counts for a lot more than anything the EU has ever done and what exactly has the EU ever done? Or the fact that the evil isolationist UK is currently doing more to keep the EU safe than er, the EU. Our forces are on the borders right now helping to keep you smug and warm.

The rest was just your usual anti-British rhetoric that we are all immune to by now.

As Alfie say’s, get over it. Start looking forward to all the new opportunities now that the thorn of the UK is out of your skin, look forward to the increasing prospect of full federalism, scrapping borders completely, or whatever direction you want to head in and enjoy the journey. Not forgetting Italy, obviously.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 26, 2018, 09:25:03 PM
An Oldie but Goodie - the aged, gentle and eminent Norman Lamont speaking in the H o Lords - yesterday I guess :-

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1036527/Brexit-news-Lord-Lamont-second-UK-EU-referendum-withdrawal-people-vote-latest

Nice one Norman, nice one Son !
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on October 27, 2018, 11:54:54 AM
Anton, you can call me or my Country anything you want. You are not a friend, acquaintance or anything else.

Caller, whether we are acquaintances or not has nothing to do here, I don't see why you bring that up. Is there some forum rule I'm unaware of?

But the fact you use the word as an insult, say’s everything about your views on Brexit.
(...)
The rest was just your usual anti-British rhetoric that we are all immune to by now.

For the records: I don't consider myself as anti-British, if I did I wouldn't hesitate admitting it openly as I already admitted being anti-American before. I find it too easy to accuse others of being anti-British and of using words as an insult (your personal perception and without quoting where I would be doing that), rather than answering in a convincing way why British people shouldn't be entitled to a second vote on Brexit, considering all the controversy surrounding the first vote, and all of the subsequent developments. Because, as far as I'm concerned, neither you nor other members here have explained that in a convincing way until now. Just answer that rather than keep changing the subject. But not an "institutional" answer ("It's not the routine", "It was just 2 years ago"...) or a fantastic answer ("It would kill our democracy", "You don't understand our democracy"...).

Not that it matters here, but your opinion about Greece is so much arguable, and it does stink of petty anti-EU feelings miles away indeed. As to NATO, how long do you think it would last, should members start fighting each other? With the current US president in charge, furthermore (yet another incompetent leader brought up by yet another populist campaign... Sorry for the stupid patronising word used by an illiberal to insult others!). Everybody knows both Trump's and Putin's political agendas include the shattering of the EU or of any European unity. Trump already made it clear he can do what he wants with NATO. Trump (and Putin) will not lose an opportunity to add fuel to the fire in case of frictions within the EU, we are seeing it these days. I wouldn't bet a farthing on NATO if conflict breaks out between its own members on control over natural resources and other crucial issues. We would probably end up with an iron curtain all over Europe again. Amen.

Therefore everyone who voted for Brexit is obviously a racist little nationalist, apart from all the immigrants who voted leave, presumably?

I never said or thought "racist" or "little" and you presume wrong as far as I'm concerned. It is true that I'm convinced that many of those who voted for Brexit are easily influenced people (see below).

The Brexit vote to leave was never a populist vote in any case.

Your opinion (arguable).

But the reality and truth in a democracy, is that one person’s vote, irrespective of their opinions or views, is a vote equal to any other vote, even if an individual chooses to vote the way they have, purely on a single issue.

Here pops up the perfect alibi to endorse any aberration committed by our republican regimes: "democracy". But it's false, because what you're describing here has little to do with democracy. What your're describing isn't but the pure law of numbers, which at best may be considered as a degeneracy of democracy. Don't you see how things work in most "democratic" countries when it comes to people's votes? In most cases, win those who can fund their campaign better, precisely because most voters are easily influenced people - sad but true. Nothing to do with democracy, that is a much more sophisticated and higher status to achieve (if achievable at all, that's another story). So call it what you want but don't call it democracy, please. How democratic, forcing the Scots and N. Irish into doing something they utterly dislike! Unforgivable common distortion that explains in part your apology of populism, too.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on October 27, 2018, 05:19:02 PM
Lord Lamont:"They simply cannot accept the result"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgKAKe2emU8
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on October 27, 2018, 06:06:07 PM
Alfie, I love that speech - your segment starts 60 secs earlier than the one I linked in Reply 423.

Excellent stuff - Lord Lamont recalls the responses of EU 'Leaders' to past referenda and amongst others, one from Manuel Baroso, President of the European Commission until 2014, (preceding Juncker) - ''they must go on voting until they get it right''.

Well worth a listen indeed - Nice one Norman  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 28, 2018, 05:12:23 PM
Anton.

I really don't think you understand me (or the UK) at all.

So let's ask a few questions of you?

1. What controversy surrounding the referendum -  anything specific in mind?

2. In what way are my views on Greece arguable? There were many other ways to deal with the Greek crisis. The EU decided on punishment.

3. Why do my views on Greece stink of petty EU sentiment? I still find it hard to believe one group of Europeans could inflict so much pain and suffering on another group of Europeans - and knowingly so.

4.Why would NATO members start fighting each other?

The problem with your views about UK democracy and buying votes, is that you can't prove it. Unlike you, I don't treat the vast majority of voters as the great unwashed and I stronly believe they are much more informed than they are given credit for and had the vote gone the other way, nothing but praise would have been heaped upon the great unwashed for the wisdom of their decision.

In my opinion, populism is a direct consequence of too many politicians from too many Countries ignoring the concerns of their populations and in both the UK and the EU, that has certainly been the case for many years. One follows the other. Ignore your electorate, lie to them even and what will they eventually do? The saying, 'you reap what you sow', springs to mind.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on October 29, 2018, 06:34:07 PM
In my opinion, populism is a direct consequence of too many politicians from too many Countries ignoring the concerns of their populations and in both the UK and the EU, that has certainly been the case for many years. One follows the other. Ignore your electorate, lie to them even and what will they eventually do? The saying, 'you reap what you sow', springs to mind.

You probably meant to write: in both the UK and the other EU member states. And what has the EU as an institution got to do with it? Why blame and demonize the wrong target? The EU current configuration is the product, not the maker of those poor politicians.

Or did you mean that as an answer to my question? Like this:

Q: Why British people shouldn't be entitled to a second vote on Brexit?
A: Because too many UK politicians have been ignoring the concerns of their electorate, thus they reap what they sow.

It would be a better answer than those given until now, but still unconvincing to me. Normally those bad politicians pay for their mistakes by losing next elections or by having to resign. That works even better in the UK than in other European countries as far as I know (see here (http://korat-farang.com/forum/index.php?topic=8006.msg59958#msg59958) for example). Denying a second vote on Brexit would harm the electorate more than the politicians. So, the question remains unanswered until now: why deny a second vote on Brexit, who would suffer from it, who should dread it?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 30, 2018, 12:46:39 PM

I used the term EU generically, to include the states therein. If you don't believe the EU had a role to play in various referendums, just watch the video above posted by Roger.


As for your question and answer. They haven't quite ignored the electorate - yet. The vote was for leave and by hook or by crook, that is what the UK will do.


You state that denying a 2nd vote would harm the electorate more than the politicians, Well, you're entitled to your opinion but it's not a statement of fact.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on October 31, 2018, 07:55:22 AM
I used the term EU generically

Populist movements typically build their campaigns of hatred on using terms generically, among other tricks. This very discussion here offers a good example of how well it works, IMHO.


If you don't believe the EU had a role to play in various referendums, just watch the video above posted by Roger.

Do you mean Lord Lamont's political address posted by Alfie? I watched it and I still don't believe the EU had a role to play in those referendums; even less so in a hypothetical second Brexit referendum, being the subject here. The speaker is a starch pro-Brexit exponent and "Leave Means Leave" supporter. Unsurprisingly, what I heard is a variant of the institutional answer used to deny a second vote, blended with a fair amount of conspiracy theory (other typical populist ingredient) not concerning the Brexit referendum. It doesn't prove anything and I'm sure similar addresses expressing the opposite political view are there, too.


As for your question and answer. They haven't quite ignored the electorate - yet. The vote was for leave and by hook or by crook, that is what the UK will do.

In the case of pro-Brexit leaders, we already know they lied on all fronts during the "Vote Leave" campaign. Isn't that enough? Why should they be spared a new judgement of ballots now? Why should they escape the you reap what you sow test?


You state that denying a 2nd vote would harm the electorate more than the politicians, Well, you're entitled to your opinion but it's not a statement of fact.

My statement follows your own reasoning, Caller. If we take it that all politicians including Labour leaders are happy with Brexit, as you claimed when answering Teessider in reply no. 412, it logicallly follows that denying a second vote would not harm the politicians. But it would harm the electorate in so far as there's already a certain demand for it. Moreover, it would represent a missed opportunity to give back a semblance of democracy to this whole matter, and the way it was handled since the start.

Back to the heart of the matter, the more we go on discussing, the more obviuos it becomes that there's no good reason to deny the British people a second vote on Brexit, except maybe the brexiteers' unavowed feeling that they would come out losing it this time.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 31, 2018, 10:06:07 AM
What Lamont said re: the EU comments on referendums is fact based. Get you head in a few books instead of youtube.

I'll get back to you about populism, it seems I have to accept the word whether I like it or not. I have just started reading a book just published in the UK called. 'National Populism: The revolt against liberal democracy'. The clue is in the title. Not a revolt against democracy, but a revolt against Liberal Democracy. That's really what a large part of Brexit was about and it's effect on sovereignty and immigration.

Your arguments about who lied over what don't hold any substance. It's pretty well documented that Government predictions, as outlined in a pamphlet delivered to every address in the UK has been shown to be no more than an extension of project fear. With Cameron, Osborne, Carney and the IMF all post-Brexit admitting to and apologising for their 'mistakes'. So if you are claiming that Brexit happened because of any untruths over Brexit, hence a new vote is needed, I would argue that claim is cancelled out by the lies from the other side.

And considering that research has shown that the two main reasons folk voted for Brexit, was over sovereignty and immigration, then the matters your are referring to are just bit parts. Its interesting that few on the remain side voted remain because of their love of the EU. The overriding factor was the economy and the effect Brexit would have on that and so far all the claims haven't come true. The UK continues to outperform the EU, which is stagnating again, economically. Now, without doubt, a no-deal will effect the UK in the short term, but it won't do much to quell the rise of populism in the EU either, as jobs are lost and so on Just look at todays news on EU economic figures. Even Germany is suffering. Yes we keep hearing that Germany's economy is thriving, but just as in the UK, that's not filtering down to ordinary people where consumer spending is falling.

As for public demand for a new referendum, you forget that there were demands for a referendum for years and that support was growing as Britain was humiliated and overruled time and again, that's not what we joined the EU for. So, a vote was eventually granted. A vote everyone in Liberal democracies and the elites thought would never go against their recommendations to remain.

So now some are calling for another referendum. So tell me Anton, if that 2nd vote should happen and let's threoretically consider the vote decides to remain, do you thiink that should be the end of the matter? Or do you think we should then have the best of three, to be absolutely fair, or maybe the best of five? What do you think? Can you not see how absurd this all is?

I disagree with your view that there is a strong argument for a 2nd referendum in any case. There was a strong argument for a first one and it was eventually granted. The question was easy and simple to understand, stay or go. The UK's politicians are largely to blame what has happened since although both the soon to be gone Merkel and Macron have both now instructed Bernier to apply a more relaxed approach.

And I still have no idea why you believe the first vote to be undemocratic and the reasons you think not holding a 2nd one would, 'represent a missed opportunity to give back a semblance of democracy'?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 31, 2018, 03:15:49 PM
Not strictly connected and quite a coincidence, but one of the lies the leave side have been accused of, is claiming the NHS would get an extra 350m a week if the UK left the EU. It was given an extra 384m a week in Monday's budget - from after we leave the EU!  ;D   
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on October 31, 2018, 04:39:47 PM
So now some are calling for another referendum. So tell me Anton, if that 2nd vote should happen and let's threoretically consider the vote decides to remain, do you thiink that should be the end of the matter? Or do you think we should then have the best of three, to be absolutely fair, or maybe the best of five? What do you think?

It would depend on the numbers, the kind of majority prevailing in the case you are supposing. In case a second vote should take place, it would be better for your country's peacefulness that, either the "leave" is confirmed, or the "remain" prevails by a majority consistently larger than what happened in the first vote. However, should your hypothesis come true and only for a tiny majority of "remain", similar to the "leave" in the first vote, I agree that it would represent a dilemma for Britain. It is reasonable to imagine that you would have to fix the inadequacy of a constitutional system that allows a simple majority to prevail in such a crucial national matter. In the meanwhile, perhaps your Mr Farage could rally with other populist leaders in other European countries to start changing things within the EU for good, and show us what they can do, now that it seems to be their momentum.


Can you not see how absurd this all is?

I wouldn't see any absurdity in granting a second vote to the people, should the people be asking for it loudly enough.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on October 31, 2018, 05:12:09 PM
You state that the NHS is to get £384 m per week after Hammonds tax cuts for the richest 10% budget on Monday. The figure was an extra £20.5 bn over 5 years or £4.1bn per year. This is around £78m per week well short of the promised £350m and about 20% of your stated £384m.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 31, 2018, 07:16:12 PM
You state that the NHS is to get £384 m per week after Hammonds tax cuts for the richest 10% budget on Monday. The figure was an extra £20.5 bn over 5 years or £4.1bn per year. This is around £78m per week well short of the promised £350m and about 20% of your stated £384m.

Oops, I'm wrong again, sorry. I didn't really take much notice of the budget and saw this in a European paper earlier. I wasn't aware it was limited to a 5 year period, so fair enough. I just thought it was amusing, really and as stated, not really connected.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on October 31, 2018, 07:27:08 PM
perhaps your Mr Farage could rally with other populist leaders in other European countries to start changing things within the EU for good, and show us what they can do, now that it seems to be their momentum.

I wouldn't see any absurdity in granting a second vote to the people, should the people be asking for it loudly enough.

And then a call for a 3rd or 4th vote?

I doubt Farage could rally with any other party leaders right now, as he's not currently a leader of any political party. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on October 31, 2018, 09:33:47 PM
I wouldn't see any absurdity in granting a second vote to the people, should the people be asking for it loudly enough.

And then a call for a 3rd or 4th vote?

The flaw lies in your constitutional system if it allows similar situations to build up.


perhaps your Mr Farage could rally with other populist leaders in other European countries to start changing things within the EU for good, and show us what they can do, now that it seems to be their momentum.

I doubt Farage could rally with any other party leaders right now, as he's not currently a leader of any political party. 

Whoever for him, then: you got my point. Show us that it's not all blah-blah, that they can really do better in a constructive way. As far as I'm concerned, they would get all of my support, at least at the start, until we see what they are made of.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on November 01, 2018, 07:34:50 AM
'National Populism: The revolt against liberal democracy'. The clue is in the title. Not a revolt against democracy, but a revolt against Liberal Democracy.

Hammonds tax cuts for the richest 10% budget on Monday

It seems the revolt against Liberal Democracy has a long way to go in the UK. Perhaps the UK government should take inspiration from the EU on certain subjects.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on November 01, 2018, 12:40:52 PM
A rhetorical address clearly drafted with the aim of causing sensation among easy influenced people, in this case to fuel anti-EU feelings among them. If it managed to influence people with a minimum of education, as I suppose are Caller and Alfie in this forum, you can imagine the effect on all of the "great unwashed", to use your term. I can touch it by hand almost everyday when talking to my low-educated Italian friends at the coffee shop (none of them finished secondary school): 75 to 80% of their political believes are based on false information, incomplete information, hearsay... When tackling each specific points one by one and trying to dig a little more into it, with the help of Internet if needed, then starts the choir of the "Oooh!" and the "Aaah!" and the "I didn't know!".

Would you recommend that poorly educated people are not allowed to vote in a referendum? Or elections generally?

Or perhaps people should attend a compulsory course at their local college before they are allowed to vote (one course for every election or referendum).

How do they go about it in your home country, Anton? How are people 'properly' educated there before a referendum?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on November 01, 2018, 01:43:58 PM

Quote
How do they go about it in your home country, Anton? How are people 'properly' educated there before a referendum?

They are sent to a special location and re-educated to think like Anton ( heaven fordid )
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 01, 2018, 02:39:43 PM
Anton, this has been an interesting discussion but I wonder if Alfie and Caller will appreciate being characterised as ''people with a minimum of education'' - I presume you mean, ''at least'' a minimum level of education.

Similarly, ''talking to my low-educated Italian friends at the coffee shop'' is a bit lofty.

IMO Lord Lamont gently hits the spot with those comments. Nice one !

Jivvy - Oh no ! Please not ! 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on November 01, 2018, 05:53:03 PM
I have just started reading a book just published in the UK called. 'National Populism: The revolt against liberal democracy'.

Careful Caller, it seems the book you are reading may not be totally objective in its general judgement of those movements, in spite of having been written by academics. At least according to this lucid review posted 4 days ago on Amazon.co.uk (see here (https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/customer-reviews/R2O55T0MQC58SC/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=0241312000)). I'm copying the full text below as Brexit is mentioned twice - I highlight in bold. And before you attack me for picking out the only 2-star review for that book, let me explain that it is my common habit, when reading other readers' reviews, to always start from the most critical ones, as by experience I learnt that they are often also the most objective ones, especially when well detailed like this one.


Get you head in a few books instead of youtube.

Thank you for the advice Caller. I'll try to add even more titles to the dozens of books I'm reading every year.

My advice to you, if I may (I know you can be very touchy), is to read less analytic works and more works of synthesis, in particular historical synthesis. You may learn that history repeats itself, or "there's nothing new under the sun" as they say, because human nature can't be changed. And if you want to learn more about human nature, nothing better than great classic novelists and poets. One Oscar Wilde will teach more about human nature than all of your academics taken in a bundle.





Good, though unoriginal, on the failings of liberal democracy but airbrushes national populism.


I don’t normally review books on Amazon, but felt misled by the description and reviews of this one and wanted to introduce a bit of balance.

In particular, the blurb claims that this book demolishes the claim that nationalist populist (NP) movements have leaders with fascistic tendencies and exhibit anti-democratic politics; the book itself is virtually silent on these subjects. It draws a distinction between the ideological positions of NP and fascist movements and explores (somewhat repetitively) how the failures of liberal democracy have given rise to the former (which it describes as the supply side), but sidesteps the more uncomfortable demand side question of how political entrepreneurs have built up such movements, let alone seek to identify whether real-life examples are a blend of fascism and NP. The authors seem to unaware of the existence of Alt-Right actors such as Steve Bannon and Alex Jones, let alone discuss where they fit in their classification.

One can indeed make the argument that restrictions on immigration are not in themselves racist or xenophonic. However, the degree of opprobrium expressed by NP supporters and leaders for well-assimilated non-white individuals who achieve prominence such as Barack Obama or Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, and the oft-repeated fact that George Soros is Jewish and Emanuel Macron once worked for Rotschilds, together with Trump’s frequent racist outburst, suggests that racism remains an inherent part of their make-up. This is not commented upon.

Another topic which is not explored is the degree to which NP movements seek to undermine liberal democracy by attacking, and where possible dismantling, pluralistic structures in the societies that they control, even if the existence of such structures has enabled their rise. This can be seen in purges of the judiciary and media companies in Hungary and Poland, in the Brexiteer insistence that a parliamentary vote, let alone a second referendum, in the light of the negotiated exit term for the UK from the EU is a betrayal by elites of the peoples’ will, and in Trump’s vehement attacks on well-established newspapers, the Department of Justice and FBI. Many in the NP world seem to believe that anyone who does not share the NP ideology is not a true patriot, and hence does not merit inclusion in a democratic society – the authors are silent on this.

What is perhaps most troubling to liberals is the extent to which members of NP movements identify so strongly with the cause that they suspend any critical faculties and blindly swallow their leaders’ wildest claims. As I write this, Cesar Sayoc has just been charged with mailing explosive devices to leading Trump critics. Despite the ample evidence that Mr Sayoc, who may well be deranged, has been an active Trump supporter, many Republicans are claiming that this is a false-flag job by Democrats, and Trump himself is attacking the liberal media for introducing a hostile climate. PiS members in Poland largely believe a highly implausible conspiracy theories explaining the 2010 Smolensk plane crash which has been weaponised by their leadership. I would contrast this with a more questioning attitude on the liberal side, e.g. as in the abandonment of Blair following his decision to support the Iraq war. I don’t think that it is possible to understand the NP world without understanding this phenomenon.

An important component of the NP mindset is the status of women. Many NP movements are socially conservative, and seek to restrict the right to abortion, although some NP parties in Western Europe claim to support female emancipation against Islam (in the same way that many French NP mayors seek to ban halal slaughter for reasons of animal welfare but strongly support hunting). Some of the relative economic deprivation suffered by the “left behind” can be linked to the growth in female education and employment and the equalization of pay. Trump’s blatant misogyny either does not trouble or positively appeals to his core audience, and Hillary Clinton’s gender is considered by many to have alienated voters. I would have liked to read the authors' considered views on this.

I would have also welcomed more discussion of the interaction between economically libertarian elites who often have an incubatory or leadership role in NP movements and the more protectionist and redistributionist instincts of many of their members. Although the authors do briefly touch on Trump’s tax cuts, they do not discuss the complex issues involved in the repeal of Obamacare or explore how the Brexiteer preference for no trade agreement with the EU will impact the manufacturing jobs of many grassroots supporters.

All in all, this is not the book that I was expecting to read and found little new or interesting in it.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on November 01, 2018, 06:43:50 PM
A rhetorical address clearly drafted with the aim of causing sensation among easy influenced people, in this case to fuel anti-EU feelings among them. If it managed to influence people with a minimum of education, as I suppose are Caller and Alfie in this forum, you can imagine the effect on all of the "great unwashed", to use your term. I can touch it by hand almost everyday when talking to my low-educated Italian friends at the coffee shop (none of them finished secondary school): 75 to 80% of their political believes are based on false information, incomplete information, hearsay... When tackling each specific points one by one and trying to dig a little more into it, with the help of Internet if needed, then starts the choir of the "Oooh!" and the "Aaah!" and the "I didn't know!".

Would you recommend that poorly educated people are not allowed to vote in a referendum? Or elections generally?

Why try to change the subject Alfie? Did I touch a sore point again?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dam12641 on November 01, 2018, 06:58:27 PM
Come on Anton. The point of this forum is that like minded people can discuss and enjoy the discussions.
I think you sometimes forget that.

For the record and in the light of previous comments in this thread, I feel that I need to justify my right to comment.

You have previously questioned the intellect of other posters, so: I have an IQ of 140, attended the best school in the UK, graduate chemist, IT consultant, company director and self made millionaire, retired at 49. Ok?

Meanwhile............

I believe you are Belgian.
If so, what gives you the right to comment on any aspect of Nationalism because as a Belgian you can surely have no comprehension of it.

An unfair argument? Maybe. But..........

And please don't interpret this post as 'combative'. I enjoy your posts in the main but sometimes I think you get carried away.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on November 01, 2018, 09:29:51 PM
A rhetorical address clearly drafted with the aim of causing sensation among easy influenced people, in this case to fuel anti-EU feelings among them. If it managed to influence people with a minimum of education, as I suppose are Caller and Alfie in this forum, you can imagine the effect on all of the "great unwashed", to use your term. I can touch it by hand almost everyday when talking to my low-educated Italian friends at the coffee shop (none of them finished secondary school): 75 to 80% of their political believes are based on false information, incomplete information, hearsay... When tackling each specific points one by one and trying to dig a little more into it, with the help of Internet if needed, then starts the choir of the "Oooh!" and the "Aaah!" and the "I didn't know!".
Would you recommend that poorly educated people are not allowed to vote in a referendum? Or elections generally?

Why try to change the subject Alfie? Did I touch a sore point again?

No sore point from me, Anton. I'm not the one getting worked up about the UK leaving the EU.

Change the subject? Isn't your home country in the EU? Anton from Belgium (http://korat-farang.com/forum/index.php?topic=1330.0)

And it was you who introduced the topic of education and your "low-educated Italian friends" (off topic).

But if your home country is not Belgium or in the EU (I know Anton and just think he is NOT from Belgium (http://korat-farang.com/forum/index.php?topic=8071.msg69015;topicseen#msg69015) / Anton is not from Belgium IMHO (http://korat-farang.com/forum/index.php?topic=8071.msg69005;topicseen#msg69005)) and you don't want to discuss education or referendums or voting when you mention them in your posts, it seems to me you are just trolling. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 01, 2018, 10:12:56 PM
'National Populism: The revolt against liberal democracy'. The clue is in the title. Not a revolt against democracy, but a revolt against Liberal Democracy.

It seems the revolt against Liberal Democracy has a long way to go in the UK. Perhaps the UK government should take inspiration from the EU on certain subjects.

Very droll Anton. I have mentioned this before, that in the UK, there hasn't really ever been a 'populist' party that has lasted the pace. What UKIP or more specifically, Farage, has achieved, has been spectacular in respect of Europe, but on the domestic scene, a complete wash-out (but that could well change if Brexit ends up as a damp squib).

I can tell you why as well - it's all about a first past the post electoral system, rather than PR. Maybe if the other Countries changed their political system, that would, on the surface at least, eradicate the problem. Poor old Sweden still can't form a Govt. two months after their election! Maybe someone needs to swallow their pride and speak to the Swedish Democrats?

Anton, do you know something (anything)? I usually like to read a book with an open-mind, so do so without reading the opinions of others beforehand. Once I knew the subject matter, it was like a magnet to me in any case. It's my background I think, growing up where and when I did, witnessing the changes over the years, dealing directly with some of them and importantly, through working in both Central & Local Government, being only too aware of, how can I put this - let's call it the glossing over of reality.

Roger, thanks for the support over Anton's slurs, but it's not needed, I only skim read what he has to say and I actually missed what you highlighted - lol! And I know I am far from being the cleverest person in any case, yet alone an intellect (God forbid)! I was lucky, in that I am of one of the last generations where growing up on a council estate without a uni education, wasn't such a barrier to reach a certain level, before hitting the proverbial glass ceiling (none of my friends went to university - it wasn't such a big deal back in the day and hardly something I was expected to do. Art college maybe, but I was 'encouraged' to leave school by my housemaster in any case). Each successive generation after mine has witnessed fewer and fewer 'moving on', for want of a better word.

So you're a classicist then, Anton? Good for you. I'm afraid I never really got past Kipling - does he count (his house in Burwash is very nice)? I jest, so no need to answer! History is one of my favourite subjects, I even took my O level a year early and even with any revision left to the night before, I passed. All thanks to Dylan and Baez, I believe? As I could only answer 4 of the 5 questions, but they always had a sort of 'get out of jail' bit at the end, where you could make short responses to I believe, three subjects from a selection they offered. Two were okay, but then there was a question about the relevance of Dylan and Baez, which was my 'clutching at straws' moment and I can only assume whoever was marking me, was a fan?

The thing is Anton, I have always been more of a contemporary sort of person, whether in history (my O level was for modern history from 1919) or art. Which is why my little collection has only two pieces with any sort of vintage, both from 1960 (St. Ives school, to save you asking). Anything prior to about 1840 isn't really my thing. Same with books I'm afraid. If I tell you my favourite author is Huraki Murakami, it might help, although I have no doubt he is writing future classics. Here's a line that seems relevant to you and I:

Body cells replace themselves every month. Even at this very moment. Most everything you think you know about me is nothing more than memories. (A Wild Sheep Chase)

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on November 01, 2018, 10:36:23 PM
A rhetorical address clearly drafted with the aim of causing sensation among easy influenced people, in this case to fuel anti-EU feelings among them. If it managed to influence people with a minimum of education, as I suppose are Caller and Alfie in this forum, you can imagine the effect on all of the "great unwashed", to use your term. I can touch it by hand almost everyday when talking to my low-educated Italian friends at the coffee shop (none of them finished secondary school): 75 to 80% of their political believes are based on false information, incomplete information, hearsay... When tackling each specific points one by one and trying to dig a little more into it, with the help of Internet if needed, then starts the choir of the "Oooh!" and the "Aaah!" and the "I didn't know!".
Would you recommend that poorly educated people are not allowed to vote in a referendum? Or elections generally?

Why try to change the subject Alfie? Did I touch a sore point again?

Change the subject? Isn't your home country in the EU? Anton from Belgium (http://korat-farang.com/forum/index.php?topic=1330.0)

And it was you who introduced the topic of education and your "low-educated Italian friends" (off topic).

Alfie, you reacted to my last comments on Lord Lamont's political address with this and other sarcastic lines: Would you recommend that poorly educated people are not allowed to vote in a referendum? Or elections generally?

However:

- I didn't make any hint whatsoever on who should or shouldn't have the right to vote in a referendum or elections
- There was no allusion whatsoever from my side, suggesting to deprive the less educated or anybody else from their political rights

So, who tried to change the subject by shifting the discussion towards the question of universal suffrage? Definitely not me! If you want to discuss that, I suggest you open another topic.

All I did was:

- Expose some facts about Lord Lamont's political address (I then had to remove that part for personal reasons, sorry about that, I can post again on request).
- Expose some other facts to explain why that kind of rhetoric, in general, works well (the part quoted above)

Did you feel offended because I supposed you have "a minimum of education"? I meant it as compliment, I thought it was clear in the context. I didn't mean to compare you to my friends who didn't finish secondary schools.


But if your home country is not Belgium or in the EU (I know Anton and just think he is NOT from Belgium / Anton is not from Belgium IMHO) and you don't want to discuss education or referendums or voting when you mention them in your posts

I'm ready to discuss all of those topics as long as related to the subject matter here: Brexit. And how does it matter where I come from?!


it seems to me you are just trolling

If you think I'm trolling, up to you, I'm not asking for yours or anybody else's attention.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on November 01, 2018, 11:01:08 PM
Anton, do you know something (anything)? I usually like to read a book with an open-mind, so do so without reading the opinions of others beforehand.

How lucky you are Caller. To think that all other people, with Anton in the forefront, like reading books with a closed mind only!  ::)

Oh, but I will keep trying harder and harder until one day I will manage to reach your level Caller, I feel it, I know I can!  :P

A Chinese proverb you might like, if you never heard it before: Open a book. The book will open you.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on November 02, 2018, 12:03:19 AM
Come on Anton. The point of this forum is that like minded people can discuss and enjoy the discussions.
I think you sometimes forget that.

You have previously questioned the intellect of other posters

For example where? The first and the second allegation, please. So I can reply or apologise if it is the case.


self made millionaire, retired at 49

Congratulations, and I hope you didn't forget to pay the taxes  :D ;D


I believe you are Belgian.
If so, what gives you the right to comment on any aspect of Nationalism because as a Belgian you can surely have no comprehension of it.

Excuse me but what do you mean by "Nationalism" exactly here? Because I don't think that's what I'm doing (the part in bold). What I'm doing is trying to dim Caller's and other members' excessive enthusiasm on movements they seem to perceive as today's version of Robin Hood and his Merry Men.


I enjoy your posts in the main but sometimes I think you get carried away.

Thank you... Well I think I'm in good company here in that case (part in bold). Also here, it would be appreciated to know where, for example.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on November 02, 2018, 12:14:27 AM
'National Populism: The revolt against liberal democracy'. The clue is in the title. Not a revolt against democracy, but a revolt against Liberal Democracy.

It seems the revolt against Liberal Democracy has a long way to go in the UK. Perhaps the UK government should take inspiration from the EU on certain subjects.

Very droll Anton.

Excuse me but why did you remove Teessider's line from your quoting? Maybe it wasn't as droll with that line in it, but it did make much better sense   :)





The complete reply no. 438:


'National Populism: The revolt against liberal democracy'. The clue is in the title. Not a revolt against democracy, but a revolt against Liberal Democracy.

Hammonds tax cuts for the richest 10% budget on Monday

It seems the revolt against Liberal Democracy has a long way to go in the UK. Perhaps the UK government should take inspiration from the EU on certain subjects.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on November 02, 2018, 07:29:53 AM
Alfie, you reacted to my last comments on Lord Lamont's political address with this and other sarcastic lines: Would you recommend that poorly educated people are not allowed to vote in a referendum? Or elections generally?

However:

- I didn't make any hint whatsoever on who should or shouldn't have the right to vote in a referendum or elections
- There was no allusion whatsoever from my side, suggesting to deprive the less educated or anybody else from their political rights
Which is why I asked you the question. I also wanted to know how your home country, wherever in the world that is, differs from the UK.

So, who tried to change the subject by shifting the discussion towards the question of universal suffrage? Definitely not me! If you want to discuss that, I suggest you open another topic.
We are discussing referendums and voting, but it seems you are not educated enough to understand that and answer my simple questions. If they're too difficult, never mind.

Did you feel offended because I supposed you have "a minimum of education"? I meant it as compliment, I thought it was clear in the context. I didn't mean to compare you to my friends who didn't finish secondary schools.
I was not offended at all, Anton. I took into account that English isn't your first language. Possibly not your second language either.

I'm ready to discuss all of those topics as long as related to the subject matter here: Brexit. And how does it matter where I come from?!
It doesn't matter at all for this discussion, but it might indicate that you have been less than honest with us (your Anton from Belgium into thread).

If you think I'm trolling, up to you, I'm not asking for yours or anybody else's attention.
But you seek such attention by your posts. Up to you, of course. Seek and ye shall get.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on November 02, 2018, 08:39:50 AM
Alfie, you reacted to my last comments on Lord Lamont's political address with this and other sarcastic lines: Would you recommend that poorly educated people are not allowed to vote in a referendum? Or elections generally?

However:

- I didn't make any hint whatsoever on who should or shouldn't have the right to vote in a referendum or elections
- There was no allusion whatsoever from my side, suggesting to deprive the less educated or anybody else from their political rights
Which is why I asked you the question. I also wanted to know how your home country, wherever in the world that is, differs from the UK.

Strange logic. But if you care so much for it, here is my answer to your sarcastic questions. I apologise with other forum members if annoyed by the digression and I will not answer or discuss other questions related to it in this topic:


---- START OF DIGRESSION ----

Q: Would you recommend that poorly educated people are not allowed to vote in a referendum? Or elections generally?

A: No, I would not recommend that.


Q: How do they go about it in your home country, Anton? How are people 'properly' educated there before a referendum?

A: This question seems like a further digression within the general digression. Anyway, I can only express my humble opinion, here: IMHO in my country, like in every other large-scale republican regime I know of, people aren't properly educated before a referendum.

---- END OF DIGRESSION ----


So, who tried to change the subject by shifting the discussion towards the question of universal suffrage? Definitely not me! If you want to discuss that, I suggest you open another topic.
We are discussing referendums and voting, but it seems you are not educated enough to understand that and answer my simple questions. If they're too difficult, never mind.

We are discussing referendums and voting in connection with Brexit, in particular in connection with the question whether British people should be entitled to a second vote if they ask for it. Now that I answered your sarcastically digressive questions, perhaps you can come back into topic by commenting on what I explained about Lord Lamont's political address that you posted.

As a reminder: Caller stated that the EU comments on referendums quoted by Lord Lamont are "fact based" (reply no. 431). To which I replied explaining that, even if fact based, they mean little or nothing in this context, because:

1. Barroso is gone as a President of the European Commission. We don't know how and in what setting he pronounced that remark in 2005. It does sound like nothing more than a witticism.

2. Also Juncker's quote is from 2005, and we ignore the setting. Juncker's term is coming to an end next year. However bad he may have been, Juncker is not the EU, nor is he Big Brother watching you. The only conclusion I would draw from Juncker's comment reported by Lord Lamont, is that Juncker isn't as witty as Barroso.

3. Raymond Barre?! He was prime minister 40 years ago. The prime minister counts almost nothing in France when it comes to foreign policy. I read that Barre did hold a position also within the then EEC, but it was even earlier (1967-1973). Whoever wrote Lord Lamont's address, he must have run out of material if he had to resort to that (vague) Barre quote.


Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 02, 2018, 10:14:21 AM
Excuse me but why did you remove Teessider's line from your quoting? Maybe it wasn't as droll with that line in it, but it did make much better sense   :)

The complete reply no. 438:

'National Populism: The revolt against liberal democracy'. The clue is in the title. Not a revolt against democracy, but a revolt against Liberal Democracy.

Hammonds tax cuts for the richest 10% budget on Monday

It seems the revolt against Liberal Democracy has a long way to go in the UK. Perhaps the UK government should take inspiration from the EU on certain subjects.

Oh I see. You are equating 'populism' to some sort of peasants revolt. Interesting.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 02, 2018, 10:47:51 AM
What I'm doing is trying to dim Caller's and other members' excessive enthusiasm on movements they seem to perceive as today's version of Robin Hood and his Merry Men.

Really, where have I said that? What I probably have said (it's hard to remember everything - there's so much!), is that I understand why they are happening, which isn't rocket science really, is it? Do I want them to succeed? My view is this - if the EU wants to survive, I believe it needs to change in many ways - in accountability, aims and ambitions and sorting out the financial mess of the Euro before it's too late and if populism is the catalyst for that, then for me, that's a good thing. And the evidence is that it's already working is some ways - look at the shift in approach to immigration. There's not a lot of difference between what Rutte now has to say on the subject - and Wilders - who he claims to detest for his views. The acid test is whether he will practise what he preaches? Such as is happening in Austria.   

You prefer the status quo of a small knit group of people controlling the rest of us with little regard for their concerns, beliefs, or future aspiration (as Cameron would say - it's a good word). That's fine, but that has created many of the issues the EU is now facing, evidenced in Brexit, Italy, Germany, Austria, Sweden and so on. I think the Greeks have given up any hope.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on November 02, 2018, 10:56:21 AM
Excuse me but why did you remove Teessider's line from your quoting? Maybe it wasn't as droll with that line in it, but it did make much better sense   :)

The complete reply no. 438:

'National Populism: The revolt against liberal democracy'. The clue is in the title. Not a revolt against democracy, but a revolt against Liberal Democracy.

Hammonds tax cuts for the richest 10% budget on Monday

It seems the revolt against Liberal Democracy has a long way to go in the UK. Perhaps the UK government should take inspiration from the EU on certain subjects.

Oh I see. You are equating 'populism' to some sort of peasants revolt. Interesting.

LOL this is the best. First, it's not me but you, or the book you are reading, that stresses about the revolt against Liberal democracy. Second, if not an equation, certainly a close kinship between peasant revolts and populism in general is a proven historical fact. Third, be it agrarian or political or whatever other form of populism you may think of, bottom line is: it's all a matter of wealth redistribution. Centuries old history, mate.

Why not comment on the British government's tax cuts instead, or compare the British government's plans for taxing the "Big Four" (GAFA) with those of the EU for the same purpose?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on November 02, 2018, 11:05:22 AM
What I'm doing is trying to dim Caller's and other members' excessive enthusiasm on movements they seem to perceive as today's version of Robin Hood and his Merry Men.

Really, where have I said that?

I didn't claim that you said that, I wrote "they seem to perceive"...


You prefer the status quo of a small knit group of people controlling the rest of us with little regard for their concerns, beliefs, or future aspiration

A united Europe against a disunited Europe, that's all I prefer. I already explained why. Brexit is working against a united Europe and thus, IMHO, Brexit is harming all parties concerned more than it is benefiting them. We already went over it, pointless to restart all over again. I already admitted more than once that the EU needs a reform. Quit putting in my mouth words I didn't say, please.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 02, 2018, 12:55:51 PM

Oh I see. You are equating 'populism' to some sort of peasants revolt. Interesting.

LOL this is the best. First, it's not me but you, or the book you are reading, that stresses about the revolt against Liberal democracy. Second, if not an equation, certainly a close kinship between peasant revolts and populism in general is a proven historical fact. Third, be it agrarian or political or whatever other form of populism you may think of, bottom line is: it's all a matter of wealth redistribution. Centuries old history, mate.

Why not comment on the British government's tax cuts instead, or compare the British government's plans for taxing the "Big Four" (GAFA) with those of the EU for the same purpose?

I have no idea if the book say's that or not, I haven't got that far into it yet! But from what I have read independently and from my understanding, modern populism isn't about wealth distribution. It's about the lack of democratic accountability within the EU and how various Governments are perceived, rightly or wrongly, as being party to that. Merkel and immigration are a very obvious example. Although I will concede that in the Southern states, the poor economic picture could be a factor. But in Germany, Sweden, France, Holland - nah, I'm not buying that.

Besides, the perceived wisdom of those in power and the media, is that populism is the result of angry old white men and the 'far right' (whatever that is meant to mean right now). Contrary to your 'historical' view about wealth distribution being the key to populism, academic research shows that there is no-one reason for the recent rise of populist parties. In fact, there is much argument amongst academics as to the why's and wherefores. Although I commend your use of colloquial English - nice touch.

I have nothing to say about the recent UK budget. I have already made one mistake - lol! Although I believe individual tax allowances will increase and although I haven't researched it, I hope that will mean I pay less tax in future! But primarily, I see the budget as a UK issue.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 02, 2018, 04:48:10 PM
Well you two are having a good sort out  :) 

Myself I just don't have any idea what the state of play is now with these negotiations ? It's impossible to tell with all the conflicting indications flying around - even Mrs May doesn't seem to know . . .

I shall be glad when all this is done with and one way or another, we are OUT of the EU   ;)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 04, 2018, 12:00:19 PM
My prediction is that a deal will be struck at the last minute. Of course, there will be no second referendum.

Today's Sunday Times is reporting that a deal has secretly been reached: 

'Senior sources say the prime minister has secured private concessions from Brussels that will allow her to keep the whole of Britain in a customs union, avoiding a hard border in Northern Ireland. They expect this to placate remainer Tories and win over some Labour MPs.

And in a move that will appeal to Eurosceptics, May is also said to be on course to secure a political deal on a “future economic partnership” (FEP) with the European Union that will allow Britain to keep open the prospect of a free trade deal resembling that enjoyed by Canada.'


If true, good news, although I find this worrying: that will allow Britain to keep open the prospect of a free trade deal resembling that enjoyed by Canada.

But let's see what happens. The usual pattern is for Barnier to come out and deny everything, as the other day when Raab claimed something similar and then had to backtrack. Maybe he simply jumped the gun.

Membership needed to view: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/revealed-theresa-mays-secret-brexit-deal-3vvn3c0sf
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 04, 2018, 07:30:41 PM
I read other articles from EU media that finance houses and businesses within the EU had been petitioning that they would be screwed without access to London, which must surely override the EU's clear desire to thwart any deal that doesn't see the UK under their thumb.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 14, 2018, 10:20:17 AM
Is today the day the Brexit stuff 'hits the fan' ?

Brexiteer Iain Duncan Smith, ''Ex-Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith warned that if reports of the deal’s contents were true then Mrs May’s administration could collapse amid the backlash. Asked if the government’s days were numbered, he said: “If this is the case almost certainly, yes.” ''

So if Mrs May falls as PM, how will a divided Tory Party choose a replacement ? If it's a Brexiteer then how will the new PM be able to achieve anything other than a hard Brexit ? And how will that get through Parliament ?

If the Govt falls, Politicians will have to divide into Pro and Anti EU Parties ? IMO Mrs May has given the project heart and soul - but what a cock up ! To have believed that the EU would do anything but obstruct and befuddle was naive. Oh dear  :(

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-latest-cabinet-meeting-theresa-may-uk-eu-brussels-draft-a8632521.html
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 14, 2018, 10:56:41 AM
We will just have to wait and see, but the leaks from the EU side, if true, are worrying.

Lot's of 'informed sources' are being quoted by the media that if true, betray even what she was saying at the banquet the other night and this keeps happening. She keeps putting out a mantra of respecting the vote to leave and what is and isn't acceptable, but seems to be intent of binding us to something else completely.

It seems the DUP are saying, 'non' based on the reports and there has always been a big question mark as to whether she can get this through Parliament in any case.

Meanwhile the Italians have rejected the EU's request to change their budget....and so it goes on. Ball in EU's court. It seems they want to apply sanctions as early as the 21st. Looking forward to see how they aim to punish a net contributor to the EU and the anti-EU sentiment that will generate. Remember, they have form with Italy, deposed Berlusconi, put unelected technocrats in place to run the Country - up to then, many Italians welcomed this - then austerity really kicked in.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 15, 2018, 10:19:36 AM
So that was Brexit. After more than 2-years, Mrs May completely capitulates and claims that the chequers deal is the best there is on offer, the alternatives are a no deal Brexit or no Brexit. She doesn't have the democratic right to even be contemplating the latter.

Tees, I take back everything I have said about May - the women is a complete barmpot.

Already the UK and EU are disputing what this deal means for future trade. But I can no longer have any confidence in May, although that trust really died with Chequers.

Be interesting to see what happens now - resignations, May ousted, Parliament rejection?

As it stands, the Tories will be wiped out at a future election and we will see the rise of true National Populism in the UK for the first time.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 15, 2018, 11:45:16 AM
Caller - me today   :(  . . . .   :(
       your  - ''the women is a complete barmpot'' - I had to chuckle !  ;D

IMO events will unfold this way . . .

                        1. Ministerial resignations
                        2. May loses a vote of confidence
                        3. New Tory Leader finds he can't renegotiate with the Ayatollahs
                        4. Present deal can't get through Parliament
                        5. Revised deal probably 'Hard Brexit' can't get through Parliament
                        6. Government falls
                        7. General Election
                        8. God only knows !!

I don't know if the Tories will be wiped out - depends how the Brexit cards fall. Ideally for me a brave and startling new Tory Leader could recreate the fullest appetite for Brexit and be elected with a good working majority   ::)

The other day I posted ''what a cock up'' - yes indeed - but it's much worse than that . . . .
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 15, 2018, 11:51:57 AM
I don't know if the Tories will be wiped out - depends how the Brexit cards fall.

I meant if things stand as they are now and Chequers is the deal that is accepted.

Brexit was both a white and blue collar vote. Add to that the many that are simply angered by the EU's stance and Mays capitulation, which is the worst possible outcome for the UK - and it could get brutal. 



Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 15, 2018, 12:18:16 PM
I'd really like to read the DT today but don't have 'Premium' access anymore.

My favourite doomster - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - under a photo of Barnier and aide - ''Michel Barnier's deputy Sabine Weyand has cleverly trapped Britain on Brexit, but sometimes you can be too clever '' and :-

''The revolutionary nihilist answer to the EU’s Brexit ultimatum is surely to bring the European temple crashing down on everybody’s heads, by means of a no-deal economic shock. Tabula Rasa would be one way out of the constitutional impasse, for those with steel nerves.
Some sovereignty Brexiteers might calculate that mutual assured recession would expose the hubris of Europe’s leaders and precipitate an internal political bloodbath in a string of countries, allowing for some sort of post-trauma settlement once the dust clears.
''

Looks like some tasty comment in the DT today !
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 15, 2018, 01:14:31 PM
Looks like some tasty comment in the DT today !

Enjoy AEP's column in full. It is damning of May's capitulation. I have wondered for some time if Italy's stance can make Brexit irrelevant, in that there won't be an EU to worry about. 

The revolutionary nihilist answer to the EU’s Brexit ultimatum is surely to bring the European temple crashing down on everybody’s heads, by means of a no-deal economic shock. Tabula Rasa would be one way out of the constitutional impasse, for those with steel nerves.

Some sovereignty Brexiteers might calculate that mutual assured recession would expose the hubris of Europe’s leaders and precipitate an internal political bloodbath in a string of countries, allowing for some sort of post-trauma settlement once the dust clears.

Labour MPs who vote with Jacobite Tory ultras on the delicious pretence that Jeremy Corbyn can negotiate better terms than Theresa May - or in reality just aiming to bring down the Government - might well cause the no-deal outcome they decry most.

From what we know, the Barnier plan is self-evidently at odds with democratic self-government. No nation would normally accept such terms unless very small, or bankrupt, or first defeated in war.

Brussels retains a de facto veto over whether Britain can ever leave the customs union, and therefore whether it can ever leave the EU’s legal orbit and set its own laws.  “They must align their rules but the EU will retain all the controls,” says the leaked note of EU negotiator Sabine Weyand.

It binds the UK to all existing and future EU law on state aid and competition. ‘Non-regression’ clauses commit us to the EU Acquis on labour policy, taxation, and the environment, as if renewable Britain - with a pioneer carbon price floor - needs restraining on CO2 emissions by lignite vandals.

The withdrawal deal does not settle anything. We will still be arguing about the future trade accord and our diplomatic ties with Europe years hence, but with less leverage and after paying £40bn for our own infeudation. How anybody thinks this could be a lasting ‘steady state’ equilibrium is beyond me. The flashpoints that have long bedeviled UK-EU relations would be even more combustible.

So what would happen if the country - by some patriotic spasm - said it could accept this? Pereat mundus.

Bruno Le Maire, France’s finance minister, says the euro is dangerously vulnerable to the next global downturn. It cannot endure without an EU treasury and the apparatus of fiscal federalism.  “Either we get a eurozone budget or there will eventually be no euro at all,” he said.

Monetary union remains a fair weather project. It lacks pan-EMU bank deposit insurance, joint bond issuance and debts, fiscal transfers, or a shared social security system. The European Central Bank still cannot act as a real lender-of-last resort.

Germany and the creditor states did just enough to prevent the euro blowing up in 2012 but never addressed the underlying pathologies, chiefly the Germany current account surplus, illegal under EU treaty law but never punished. Instead they have imposed internal devaluations and a fiscal surveillance regime for the South. It has a permanent contractionary bias.

A clutch of Nobel economists has warned that the eurozone cannot survive another global recession as currently designed. Public debt ratios are much closer to the danger line than they were in 2007 before the onset of the last downturn - up from 36pc to 98pc of GDP in Spain, from 68pc to 125pc in Portugal, from 65pc to 99pc in France, and from 103pc to 133pc in Italy, leaving aside the tragedy of Greece.

Austerity fatigue in the South is palpable. As the Lega-Five Star insurgency in Rome makes clear, a repeat of the fiscal water-boarding endured from 2011 to 2014 is out of the question.

The Stability Pact and the Fiscal Compact prohibit the sort of budget stimulus needed in the next global crisis. No doubt Europe’s leaders will cast aside these rules eventually - indeed, they should be doing so right now -  but only after months of delay and North-South dispute. By then the crisis will have metastasized.

Monetary policy cannot carry the burden a second time. The ECB has scant powder left to combat a serious shock. Interest rates are already minus 0.4pc. The bank’s balance sheet is 43pc of GDP after three years of quantitative easing. Diminishing returns have set in. The trade-offs are deteriorating. There is a high political bar to more QE.

The eurozone would slide into a deflationary vortex - like Japan, without Japanese cohesion - and this would expose the unsustainable debt trajectories of EMU countries with high legacy debts and no money-printing authority standing behind them. The chain of sovereign defaults would be unstoppable. That would be the end of Europe’s post-war project as we know it.

The eurozone economy is already close to stall speed as global borrowing costs ratchet higher. The US Federal Reserve is draining dollar liquidity, causing a credit crunch across emerging markets. This hits Europe via trade and bank lending.

Italy’s growth fell to zero in the third quarter. Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi, the country’s ex-ECB board member, says the economy is already in recession and barreling straight into a wall. “The crash is going to be violent,” he said.

The insurgent Lega-Five Star coalition is digging in for a budget fight with Brussels. Risk spreads on 10-year Italian debt are back above 300 basis points, eroding the capital buffers of Italian banks. The ‘sovereign bank doom-loop’ is alive and well, and as the International Monetary Fund warned in its Stability Report, risks spreading contagion through southern Europe.

The German economy contracted by 0.2pc last quarter. Brussels blames a “soft patch”, caused by temporary troubles in the car industry. Monetarists disagree. The broad M3 money figures threaten an outright eurozone recession next year without an immediate change in policy.

My view is that the financial shock of a no-deal Brexit would crystallize mounting risks and hurl the eurozone into an existential crisis. Academic trade models do not capture the multiple channels of contagion, obvious to any Mayfair hedge fund dealing with capital flows. Some 80pc of Europe’s capital markets are in London. 

Confidence would be shattered. The derivatives markets would seize up. The wealth effect of a stock market crash would cause eurozone consumption to buckle. Unless the EU backed off very quickly, the cross-Channel supply chains of European multinationals would break down. Airbus would have to suspend its European operations. Germany’s 750,000 annual car sales in the UK would collapse. 

Britons have been told for two years that a no-deal Brexit would bring the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse - as well it might - but the European public has not been alerted to the big risks they face in any comparable way. The insouciance has been astonishing. This asymmetry has psychological implications.

It is a fair bet that stunned electorates would turn on their elites with condign fury, ushering in a ‘Salvini Europe’ and the ascendancy of AfD in Germany. How this would play out within the UK’s internal union is anybody’s guess.

This ‘euro-dämmerung’ is what the EU unwittingly risks by presenting Britain with what looks like the peacetime equivalent of Austria’s ultimatum to Serbia in July 1914.

Personally, I have reached no conclusion on the May plan. I will study the 500 page report and walk half the footpaths of Kent thinking about it before deciding on the Hobson’s Choice facing our nation: the evisceration of our democracy, or a sledgehammer blow for our economy.

Sabine Weyand has certainly been effective in weaponising the Irish border and in laying a legal-diplomatic trap with the December Joint Report. She has forced Britain to stay in the EU’s legal structure through the customs union.

The EU’s £95bn trade surplus in goods with the UK is protected, without reciprocation on services. It is the consummate triumph. Britain is ‘out of Europe, but run by Europe’. The EU can have its cake and eat it.
 
But sometimes in life you can be too clever by half.
 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 15, 2018, 02:32:14 PM
Taman Tun on KF used to laugh at my devotion to AEP  ???
He's not wrong really - AEP is a top Doomster indeed !
But he is a brilliant Economist and that's a great article IMHO . .

''Brussels retains a de facto veto over whether Britain can ever leave the customs union, and therefore whether it can ever leave the EU’s legal orbit and set its own laws.  “They must align their rules but the EU will retain all the controls,” says the leaked note of EU negotiator Sabine Weyand.

It binds the UK to all existing and future EU law on state aid and competition. ‘Non-regression’ clauses commit us to the EU Acquis on labour policy, taxation, and the environment
''

Thanks for posting that Caller  :)



Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on November 15, 2018, 06:15:58 PM
Is Theresa May serious about this "deal"? Effectively not leaving the EU, paying £39bn, and losing any control over EU policy, or is it a cunning plan to stop Brexit altogether? Multiple resignations today and the pound tanking. The real villain to me is the spineless David Cameron who gambled the country to appease the likes of Rees-Mogg and the fading threat of the Trump puppet Farage then walked away when it all went wrong. This deal will not be accepted and only solution is a peoples vote. Deal, no deal or no Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 15, 2018, 07:45:16 PM
This deal will not be accepted and only solution is a peoples vote. Deal, no deal or no Brexit.

I still don't agree with that, as it will be even more divisive to have another vote to stay or go. That's happened and we need to move on. I am, however, happy for a vote that helps decide what type of Brexit we have.

But I think everyone agrees that the current plan is dead in the water. MP's from every side are slaughtering it and there is no way the pubic will accept it, whether leave or remain. It was said a long time ago, Tebbit being one of the first to do so, that May has surrounded herself with incompetent advisors and that she needed to sort that out, she didn't and he has been proved right. I was shocked to read that one of Mays senior civil servants shouted at McVey during yesterdays cabinet meeting. That just beggars belief. 

Two points. One being that this is still a draft treaty and the EU will be paying close attention to what is happening in Parliament and elsewhere that may yet force them to make concessions and the 2nd is that it's not too late to dump chequers and start again with a Canadian style deal.

It's worth reflecting on the article from the Telegraph that I posted. I don't claim to be an expert, but I do read a lot, and when AEP talks of Nobel level economists saying a no deal Brexit would do irreparable damage to the EU, well, all I can say is that I have been reading politicians within the EU saying the exact same thing and I have also said time after time, how can any EU state support a no deal, when their own research shows it will cost jobs, profits and GDP. How many Government will survive as a consequence? May has been found wanting in these negotiations and she has backed the wrong horse and has to pay the consequences, or move in a different direction.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 16, 2018, 05:30:12 AM
Caller - excellent posting on this subject, if I may say so.

In your last - ''EU will be paying close attention to what is happening in Parliament and elsewhere that may yet force them to make concessions.'' I don't really share your optimism - I feel we will get nothing else.

The worst aspect of this deal IMO is that we can NEVER leave it without EU permission. Not even after 5 years. This is incredible, disastrous ! Not even after 10 years. Comments about the UK becoming a 'vassall State' and 'colony' are SPOT ON  :(

Reading comments from the 'Ayatollahs', some behind the scenes and comments from other EU Nations, I get only bad vibrations. From the start, the UK has underplayed the 'trade' issue - how often do we hear of the EU's Euro 70 billion postive trade balance with the UK. A 'hard' Brexit may be bad for UK industry but  it'd be far worse for the EU. Nothing has been made of this UK advantage in negotiation.

I listened to Mrs May in Parliament and I thought she defended the indefensible with some poise and strength. But 'She'll have to go', as Simply Red sang of another Iron Lady . . .

Penny Mordaunt's suggestion of a free vote for the Tories in Parliament is a good one IMO.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/15/theresa-may-brexit-deal-national-interest

Just heard that Michael Gove has just refused to replace Dominic Raab as Brexit Secretary - jeepers - scraping the barrel now ! And Mrs May invoking the image of Geoffrey Boycott in her defence. OMG.







 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 16, 2018, 05:40:19 AM
Last post for now - from the unloved Simon Jenkins :-

''For Theresa May, Brexit does not mean Brexit. It means exit. There is nothing more exhilarating to the House of Commons than a prime minister on the run. There is a smell of blood in the water. Sharks cruise the corridors. British politicians set aside the nation’s interest. They default to raw ambition.

But it is not exit yet. May has nine lives, even if she is on her last one. For two years she has blundered. She has promised frictionless trade but no customs union. She has rejected Norway and Canada. She has tried to appease everyone in the hope that something would turn up. Finally, at Chequers in the summer and again at cabinet on Wednesday, the basic weakness of Britain’s negotiating position was laid bare.

From day one after the referendum, Britain was supplicant to a neighbouring superpower
.''

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/15/theresa-may-brexit-deal-national-interest
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 16, 2018, 10:58:47 AM
From day one after the referendum, Britain was supplicant to a neighbouring superpower[/i].''

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/15/theresa-may-brexit-deal-national-interest

That's so funny. A superpower with no army, dependent on NATO for security and the UK for intelligence. An economy that is panning, Southern states in permanent sufferance that are getting poorer and poorer and a currency that is widely predicted to crash, thus brining down the whole pack of cards, when the next financial crisis hits or if Italy stays defiant, or Trump keeps turning the screw on trade.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 16, 2018, 03:36:21 PM
Listening to May's loyalists on 'Today' reminds me of listening to the EU 'crats.

IMO as soon as these 'negotiations' reached the point where the UK was required to seek EU permission to leave the 'backstop' arrangement - the UK should have walked out.

As it is, after say 3, 5, 10, 20 years the UK wants to leave the 'backstop', the EU will say no and turn the screws again. The UK has been offered life as a Colony of the EU. I'm sure that would suit them - but how the hell did May and her Muppets fall for it ?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 17, 2018, 07:26:43 AM
Just MHO - disappointed to see that Michael Gove didn't resign. I don't think I'd be alone in thinking that Gove puts personal ambition above all else. He'll be closer to the top of the tree now, if May goes, than he would have been amongst theBrexiteers  ;)

Mrs May might survive a 'no confidence' vote but there seems no way this getting through Parliament. Does there ?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 17, 2018, 10:14:01 AM
Just MHO - disappointed to see that Michael Gove didn't resign.

As this has now panned out, I think this is a good thing.

The vote of no confidence should be withdrawn, stopped or whatever - for now.

The 5 powerful leave cabinet members that have stayed in cabinet, including Gove, are basically putting May on notice to renegotiate the backstop and terms of leaving before the vote in Parliament, or else. If they walk, she will have no option but to stand aside, she will simply have no authority left if that happens. The EU are already making mutterings about what has been agreed can't be changed, but they are realists and will have little choice, as any draft agreement that doesn't get through Parliament, cannot be ratified as an agreement.

May's instransigence and unwillingness to listen to others, is a strength and weakness, depending on how wisely she uses it, in this instance, it might be the only way for her and her plans - to survive.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Thaiwolf on November 17, 2018, 11:40:21 AM
Teresa May has done an admirable job considering the incredible difficulties that have been presented to her.

The draft proposal seems a pretty good deal for the UK to me – (probably better than the UK deserves) and once MPs have actually read the 350 odd pages and stop the knee jerk reactions, calm will resume and with a few minor tweaks pertaining to the NI backstop, parliament will give it the green light.

The EU have not written off “minor changes” to the proposal – they will be negotiated.

The old adage of “follow the money” is applicable here. Rich people and those in charge will not allow a "no deal" situation to develop.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 17, 2018, 12:40:28 PM
Hi TW. I agree that Mrs May has shown incredible dedication - I heard her questioned in Parliament and she stood up well under great pressure. She inherited the most poisoned of chalice and easy to see why David Cameron bailed out. A great effort and I think Mrs May will always be respected for it.

You may be right that the 'no deal' option will be avoided somehow.

As for Mrs May's tactics in negotiation - misguided from the start. Now we are tied to the EU forever unless they agree to let us go - experience suggests that EU cooperation in future cannot be relied upon. Tweaking the 'backstop' is not enough - we need to be able to leave at some point whether the EU agree or not.

Never mind - you may well be right - I just don't see it that way. ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 17, 2018, 01:30:34 PM
Humble apologies to Michael Gove . . . . Gang of five threatening to resign if Mrs May doesn't go back to Brussels : Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Chris Grayling, Penny Mordaunt and Liam Fox  :o  That is a powerful team - Mrs May will lose credibility IF they do resign.

History in the making - just look at the front page from the DT

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/

Copied from the DX :-

''THE PRIME Minister has been given an extraordinary ultimatum by five Cabinet Ministers, who are threatening to resign within two weeks unless Theresa May makes three fundamental changes to her Brexit deal with the EU.

The Telegraph reports the five Cabinet Ministers are coordinating efforts to reopen Brexit negotiations, and will meet over the next couple of days to finalise their demands. The group consists of Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Chris Grayling, Penny Mordaunt and Liam Fox. Mr Gove and Ms Mordaunt had been considering their positions over the past 24 hours, but appear to have decided not to remain in Government for the time being.

The five key Ministers are demanding the UK should be able to withdraw from any Brexit backstop unilaterally, without requiring the EU’s consent, according to the paper
.''
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Thaiwolf on November 17, 2018, 04:59:28 PM
This is what I expected. The five will secure modifications to back stop, parliament will vote it through. What problem :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 18, 2018, 07:42:25 AM
This is what I expected. The five will secure modifications to back stop, parliament will vote it through. What problem :)

Well let's hope so. Because as it stands, what we have is a PM that is being caught out telling lie after lie to Parliament and the people of the UK. There's a reason why she hasn't published the legal advice. But there are enough lawyers out there dismantling her claims against the reality. And on that basis alone, she must go at some stage.

I'm sure remainers outside of Parliament are happy with the agreement, but many remain MP's are not, as this deal leaves the UK worse off than ever. Plus the Country didn't vote to remain and her agreement, made whilst undermining 2 Brexit Secretaries and lying to her cabinet, does not enable the UK to leave the EU.

As the member of the publc told her on that LBC radio interview, she is this generations Chamberlain, trying to appease what has now become the enemy. The trouble is that I'm not sure we have another Churchill waiting in the wings?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 18, 2018, 08:10:54 AM
TW - I'm not sure the EU will see as a ''minor change'', the need for the UK to be able to end the 'backstop' without permission. For them, that's the most fundamental change around.
But I hope you are right . . .

Caller - 'Chamberlain'. Crikey that UK Citizen had it spot on - ''she is this generations Chamberlain, trying to appease what has now become the enemy.'' As for a new Churchill - that would have to be David Davis for the time being - he has the insights into the EU.

What a muddle !

I saw this one coming round the bend, ''Theresa May’s hopes of securing her Brexit deal were dealt a new blow on Saturday night as the EU warned the UK would have to pay about £10bn more to Brussels to win extra time for a smooth exit.''
What are we into now - ''reparations'' ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/smooth-brexit-could-cost-10bn-extra
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 18, 2018, 10:29:53 AM
I know she won't do it, but she could still walk away and say, this is our final offer, otherwise it's a no deal. As a German minister said last week and most economists predict, a no deal would be catastrophic for the EU and although it would hit Britain, it would be mayhem for them.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 19, 2018, 05:41:50 AM
Mrs May just won't be able to confront the EU with any significant change of tack - as a 'Chamberlain' figure, she just wouldn't have ANY credibility IMO.

A hard Brexit is £70 billion more difficult for the EU than for the UK, but it will take a new Leader, (to emerge after this 'deal' is voted down in the Commons), to confront the EU with any such realities.

We are so far down the vortex of this nonsense it's hard to see a way up at all !

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 22, 2018, 12:05:15 PM
A few days ago when the EU 27 met to discuss the 'Withdrawal Agreement', I was quite surprised when it was agreed by all 27 there and then. I immediately thought - wow the 27 must think they've got a really good deal !

Spain then whinges about Gibralter and there are rumblings from France, Portugal and others on fishing rights. Etc. etc. Mrs May is off to see President Juncker as she put it, to discuss some 'tweaks'. Mrs Merkel won't be attending the crucial summit on Sunday unless things look settled.

An interesting look at the HoC arithmetic for getting the 'WA' approved by Parliament in the link below.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6413195/May-pins-Brexit-hopes-concessions-EU-chief-tea.html


Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 22, 2018, 12:24:10 PM
Roger, here is AEP's conclusion to studying May's deal in detail:

Theresa May told MPs today that they "risk no Brexit at all" if they reject her deal. That is a risk that I am willing to take, for nothing can be worse than foreign legal writ in perpetuity, with no veto. Obviously it would be better to remain in the EU.

My preference at this juncture is a no-deal on WTO terms, mindful that Mrs May’s failure to prepare has made this very hard. Global Britain’s report this week is right to argue that the costs of trading on this basis (until free trade deals are negotiated) have been systematically exaggerated by the Treasury and commercial interests talking their own book.

The UK could mitigate the initial shock by tearing down all tariffs on incoming goods until the dust settles and block chain customs technology is installed.Sterling would take the strain and balance the capital accounts. State aid policy could be deployed aggressively to cushion the blow for industrial sectors in the firing line, if necessary by temporary nationalisation and backed by extreme fiscal stimulus akin to emergency mobilisation in war time. Where there is will and executive energy, things can be done.

We could set trigger dates for a snap-back of tariffs later to preserve leverage in negotiating deals with the US, the EU, Japan, China, and India. 

Would it lead to a short-term recession? Yes, of course. Would it be catastrophic” as so often claimed? People might be surprised how quickly industry adapts when faced with irreversible reality. Needless to say, Parliament has set its face against any such action. It will impose a deal that ends its own legislative supremacy.

My working assumption is that a bloc of Labour MPs will support Theresa May’s package and push it over the top in December. Britain will then be a legal prisoner until the EU sees fit to release us.

He forgets to mention that it will also be the end of the Conservative party and probably Labour, as we know them.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 22, 2018, 12:33:27 PM
Thanks Caller - frightening stuff  :'(

(How do you get into the DT ? Have you got 'Premium' ? ATB)

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 22, 2018, 07:13:17 PM
Thanks Caller - frightening stuff  :'(

(How do you get into the DT ? Have you got 'Premium' ? ATB)

Yes, premium for the Telegraph and the Times. The Times is the better paper. The others I use are still free.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dam12641 on November 23, 2018, 06:41:17 AM
Thanks to Mrs May the UK is about to become the first nation in history to buy itself into slavery.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 23, 2018, 07:57:58 AM
Caller thanks - please copy us DT whenever you feel it might be of interest - ATB

Dam - yes where slavery is concerned - the money usually goes in the other direction. No wonder the 27 signed up so quickly. What a shambles  :'(

Mai pen lai - hopefully HoC will vote NO !
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Thaiwolf on November 23, 2018, 08:02:58 AM
And who I wonder, will be our masters in an obviously disintegrating EU?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Thaiwolf on November 23, 2018, 08:16:46 AM
Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy may have become the slaves of the Greater German Empire but as we all know, Britain is made of sterner stuff. Anyone who feels that Britain will become enslaved should review history and is dilusional.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 23, 2018, 01:45:31 PM
Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy may have become the slaves of the Greater German Empire but as we all know, Britain is made of sterner stuff. Anyone who feels that Britain will become enslaved should review history and is dilusional.

Alas, Mrs May seems determined to test the history books.

But there is something not right here. Something we're not in on. There isn't an academic, economist, politician with a brain, or anyone else, who is not repeating the mantra that this is the worst possible deal that the UK could accept. Now, discard a conspiracy theory that this is a plot to keep us in the EU, as well as May and Rudd now chanting the mantra it's this deal or no Brexit (which she will never get away with), are we all missing something? Is there some hidden agreement behind all this, that like pulling a rabbit from a hat, will make such a bad deal into an okay one?

Surely there has to be something else, surely?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 23, 2018, 02:08:13 PM
TW - Well said Old Chap  :)  Now for a chorus of ''Rule Britannia !''  ;)   
Perhaps we should change the words to ''Save Britannia.''

I've got it - ''Save Britannia, Britannia gave the waves'' to recognise the likely plight of the Nation's fisherman.

Caller - something else ? I fear not. All the pundits are saying that the HoC will reject the Bill and then who knows ?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Thaiwolf on November 23, 2018, 02:28:26 PM
I think Caller has hit the nail right on the head. Sure we the general public do not have the full facts. A deal will be done. What is going on now is pure theatre perhaps for the benefit of the media. Both sides have to "pretend" that things are difficult. The NI dilemma will be solved and if the Commons have any sense, the deal will be seen through.

Christ what else do us Brits want? We have the cessation of free movement, a good trade deal with EU in the offing and the ability to strike deals withe rest of the world.

Keep your heads lads, things will be fine.

Britain has had the good sense to exit before Merkel's immigration policy, a euro crisis and the Italian deficit crisis force the EU to disintegrate.

May is playing games with the EU - the threat that if they do not compromise, the commons will not vote the deal trough puts Britain in a very strong position.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on November 28, 2018, 03:37:54 PM
I can't hear the Brexiteers atm - are they being drowned out by Mrs May's Muppets and their bubblespeak  ::)  Project Fear 2 is in full cry but it's gone quiet on the Brexit side - what about the big 5 Brexiteer Ministers - what are they up to ?

The BBC - I have never heard so much obvious bias on the BBC before   :(

TW - I'm not sure that the 'deal' gives ''the ability to strike deals with the rest of the world'' and to me, it seems that we are stuck with the 'deal' we have got. The HoC are likely to vote it down still. Then we are stumped.

Somehow the Treasury can produce lightning forecasts of the impact of 'Brexits' but the Govt. can't release the legal advice about the ''Backstop'. Mmmmmm.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on November 28, 2018, 05:06:28 PM
TW - I'm not sure that the 'deal' gives ''the ability to strike deals with the rest of the world'' and to me, it seems that we are stuck with the 'deal' we have got. The HoC are likely to vote it down still. The we are stumped.

Somehow the Treasury can produce lightning forecasts of the impact of 'Brexits' but the Govt. can't release the legal advice about the ''Backstop'. Mmmmmm.

Yes, May is lying about trade deals which is why they won't publish the legal advise. I think this could be Mays downfall as MP's are fuming about this issue. If it is revealed that what May is claiming is possible is not set in stone and refuted by her own legal advise. she will have to resign.

Trust old Hammond to come out with another pack of distorted lies. Worth remembering they are 'scenarios' based on certain assumptions. No-ones listening any more.

I know it's a Tory rag, but the Telegraph was funny yesterday. William Hague and the Tory chairman wrote articles basically backing May's deal. The comments were hysterical and not very polite. Certainly akin to comment after comment - and there must have been over a thousand - basically telling both to go forth and multiply.

Tees will be happy, it could be the death of the Tories, the trouble is that Labour aren't coming out of this well either!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 01, 2018, 07:12:10 AM
Sam Gyimah - Tory Minister - ''with deep regret I have tendered my resignation as the universities, science, research and innovation minister''.

In addition, according to another DT article, ''Eight Cabinet ministers have held secret talks about pivoting to a Norway-style "plan B" if the Prime Minister's deal is voted down in the Commons . . . A cross-Brexit alliance of ministers - equivalent to almost a third of the Cabinet - has held discussions about joining the European Free Trade Association amid concern there is "zero chance" of the Prime Minister's deal surviving.''

Coming back to Mr Gyimah, ''who has been tipped as a future Conservative leader, (he) says the Galileo decision should act as a “clarion call”, claiming Britain’s interests “will be repeatedly and permanently hammered by the EU27 for many years to come”. “Britain will end up worse off, transformed from rule makers into rule takers. It is a democratic deficit and a loss of sovereignty the public will rightly never accept,” he adds. Having surrendered our voice, our vote and our veto, we will have to rely on the “best endeavours” of the EU to strike a final agreement that works in our national interest. As minister with the responsibility for space technology I have seen first-hand the EU stack the deck against us time and time again, even while the ink was drying on the transition deal. Galileo is a clarion call that it will be “EU first”, and to think otherwise – whether you are a leaver or remainer – is, at best, incredibly naive.

To be fair, the Government’s Brexit deal has been hard won. But at its heart, all the big decisions in the political declaration that will shape our future in Europe, and the world, are yet to be agreed. Where we set the balance between an independent trade policy and frictionless trade, high market access and freedom of movement, fisheries, agriculture, and the all-important Northern Ireland question are just some of the big issues still in play. It is a deal in name only. And we will be relying on the good faith of the EU to deliver the bespoke deal we have been led to expect
.''

and . . . ''As the minister responsible for Britain’s role in the Galileo project, Mr Gyimah describes the “frustrating negotiations” as “only a foretaste of what’s to come”, saying: “I have seen first-hand the EU stack the deck against us time and time again.”''

                                                  ********************
 
IMO the appalling aspect of Mrs May's current 'push' to get her deal through HoC, is the clear collaboration of EU Ayatollahs echoing there is no other deal available in a renegotiation, whilst we hear behind the scenes that they are mocking the weakness the UK showed, complicit in this 'rout' of UK interests. As more than 100 Tory MP's are reportedly going to vote against May's deal - it will be an interesting week or two. Dare I hope ?  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on December 01, 2018, 07:32:25 AM
                                               ********************
  IMO the appalling aspect of Mrs May's current 'push' to get her deal through HoC, is the clear collaboration of EU Ayatollahs echoing there is no other deal available in a renegotiation, whilst we hear behind the scenes that they are mocking the weakness the UK showed, complicit in this 'rout' of UK interests. As more than 100 Tory MP's are reportedly going to vote against May's deal - it will be an interesting week or two. Dare I hope ?  ;)

You asked several times for comments from me and another person regarding Brexit. You wanted to see other persons opinions if I remember correctly? I stopped giving comments due to your namedropping of EU Ayatollahs. Negotiations mean that both parties want to get the best deal for their side. Or do you think the EU should give in to all UK wants? Negotiations would then not be needed at all. Maybe you should look at it from a broader perspective not only through UK spectacles.

I just watched the English series "The Last Kingdom"  (3 seasons). Even then it was already clear you have to work together to get a compromise.

Have a nice day.
Robert
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 01, 2018, 12:22:04 PM
Hi Robert. Last time on this tack, Oct 25th, you replied to Caller not me , ''Anyway I will quit this topic and leave it to the pro-Brexiteers so you can all agree''.

Always good to see your point of view - we both have the manners to disagree politely   :)

I'm sorry that you don't like me using 'Ayatollah' to describe the EU leaders - but Brexit raises strong feelings and these are mine.

Regarding the 100's of other words in my last post, what did you think ? The Minister Sam Gyimah who has just resigned, found the EU totally intransigent in discussions about the 'Galileo' project, to which the UK has contributed Euro 1.2 billion and he fears that all the other discussions to come will be the same.

'The Last Kingdom' - sorry haven't seen it but I'm all for working together as you say ! ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on December 01, 2018, 12:48:28 PM
Roger, what do you hope for wrt Brexit?
No deal, which all assessments show will hit the UK hard and the £ harder and which will not be acceptable to parliament
Or some magical capitualation by the EU which won't happen. Rather than scoff at the efforts of May to acheive a deal offer an alternative. You seem to be in agreement with Rees-Mogg, Johnson and Corbyn who just wait to see whats on offer then reject it. I see only 2 possible outcomes, either May's deal (or very similar) or no Brexit at all.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 01, 2018, 01:10:43 PM
Hi Teess. I hope for something better, much better, than what we have right now.

1. Parliament votes down the 'May' deal.
2. Carney who is far too political to be Governor of the B of E to be replaced - his worst case scenarios are always presented as the likely outcome - part of 'Project Fear'.
3. May to be replaced as PM - my choice would be David Davis as a stop gap until 2020.
4. Take the £39 billion OFF the table.
5. Resumption of 'Project Inspire' - in favour of full Brexit freedoms.

                                                         . . . . and let's go from there.

I'm not 'scoffing' at Mrs May's efforts - I think she has tried very hard and shown amazing resilience - but in full pursuit down the wrong path.

You seem to repeat Mrs May's and the EU mantra - this 'deal' or no 'deal'. To me that's totally defeatist. The Uk got these negotiations wrong from the start. So start again.

If the EU don't help this time - then hard Brexit it is ! I read that the trade balance UK/EU is around £60 billion p.a. in their favour - I think that's one  card to play for a start  ;)   
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 01, 2018, 01:13:24 PM
Teess. Have you read those words from Sam Gyimah ?
The UK has got itself in an awful bind atm  :(
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on December 01, 2018, 01:35:09 PM
Yes and he's right. The best deal is the one we already have. It's a shame our politicians couldn't foresee these problems.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 01, 2018, 01:49:04 PM
Hi Teess. I don't think Sam Gyimah is saying that at all :-

''“In these protracted negotiations, our interests will be repeatedly and permanently hammered by the EU27 for many years to come. Britain will end up worse off, transformed from rule makers into rule takers,” he wrote in an article for the Daily Telegraph.''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/30/sam-gyimah-resigns-over-theresa-mays-brexit-deal

Have to go now.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on December 01, 2018, 01:52:08 PM
Gyimah voted to remain. He sees May's deal as poorer than remain.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 01, 2018, 03:09:43 PM
Yes 2016 - Gyimah was a 'Remainer'.

In the 2018 situation, Gyimah can't support May's 'deal'. He has observed EU intransigence in the Galileo discussions and says with regard to May's 'deal', that should act as a''clarion call'', claiming that Britain’s interests ''will be repeatedly and permanently hammered by the EU27 for many years to come.''

Gyimah may advocate another 'Referendum' - but I wonder how he'd vote now ? He's due to speak on Radio 4 any moment. BFN/ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on December 01, 2018, 07:33:20 PM
Where I agree with Roger - and where Robert in many respects is right - is this language of defeat in the negotiations with the EU. Comments above such as 'the best deal', 'all they will offer'. We should actually be in the driving seat. The EU simply cannot afford a no deal Brexit, it will break the EU, yet May and her team of quislings seem unable to grasp this and use it as a strong negotiating tool. It just beggars belief really. It seems increasingly likely that Mays deal won't get through and project hysteria is actually futile, as the public don't get a vote this time.

What people need to think about is that for those that voted Brexit, nothing has really changed. Many are still bottom of the food chain and Mays deal won't change that. That's very scary.

It's fascinating that whilst the establishment in the UK are doing all they can to keep the UK inside this dreadful, immoral and corrupt organisation, the citizens of France and now Belgium are beginning to rebel against the effects the EU is having on the lives. Worth checking out Germany as well. Notoriously frugal, Germans are simply not spending. God help Germany if Trumps trade wars effect their exports, as that's the Country's breadwinner. Remove that and there's not a lot else.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 02, 2018, 07:10:48 AM
Sam Gyimah on 'Today', Dec 1st, 8.20 am - (just a few minutes). Under May's 'deal, there are brutal negotiations to come, UK interests will be hammered and crippled for decades as the UK becomes 'supplicant' to the EU. The veto, voice and vote of the UK is given up and the EU is a referee making the rules up along the way. Gyimah had a foretaste with his work on the Galileo project. Apparently while the ink was still wet on the 'Transition Agreement', rules on Galileo were changed to curtail UK interests more.

In those few minutes, Sam Gyimah, a 'Remainer', paints a devastating picture of an iniquitous EU and destroys the hopes in May's deal. It's time for the UK to play 'hardball' now.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on December 02, 2018, 08:57:04 PM
Well Roger, The Times claims to have the details of the legal advise, 3 cabinet ministers have all confirmed there is no get out of jail card as May is claiming. They were all given numbered copies of the advice and were unable to leave the room with them. All numbered copies were counted out and in.

Raab, the 2nd Brexit minister, has confirmed this is what happened and states - as an international lawyer,no less (news to me) that that is what he saw and that is what it stated. The Times sees this as a majot threat to May and the Govt. could be held in contempt of Parliament if they don't release the full written advice.

If they are forced to issue the advice, then surely that is that for May? As she will have been shown to have knowingly lied to all and sundry and she will have to go. It will also make it more difficult for her to get her deal through Parliament.

Interesting days ahead.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Coolkorat on December 03, 2018, 04:15:58 PM
The latest speculation is that there may now not be a vote in Parliament at all! Many people would see this as a somewhat cowardly route, and massively damaging to the conservatives however they tried to spin it. From the beeb:

Home Secretary Sajid Javid has dismissed speculation that the final vote on Mrs May's deal - due on 11 December - could be delayed, saying he didn't think there was "any chance" of that.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 04, 2018, 08:32:11 AM
Crikey - there is to be a debate in HoC about the Govt. being in contempt of Parliament for refusing to release the full advice of the Attorney General on the 'Backstop'. Geoffrey Cox the AG, gave a spirited defence of his position . . . .  The Guardian comments :-

''Geoffrey Cox is wasted in politics. He should be on the stage. The man was born to act. If you don’t believe me, listen to his voice. Or should I say his VOICE! His VOICE, gentle reader! Listen to it BOOM, BOOM like the deepest CANYON! Hear it RISE and then FALL, like the mightiest SEA! Hear it rumble, rumble like a distant thunder – and then ROAR, ROAR like a towering STORM! That VOICE, O my reader, O my most cherish’d reader! So DEEP, so RICH, so SONOROUS with MAJESTY! Why! It makes Brian BLESSED sound like Frank SPENCER!''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/03/geoffrey-cox-queens-counsel-attorney-general-finest-actor-since/

The EU appear to be more concerned with being vindictive and punishing the UK than they do in being friendly, reasonable, respectful or even mindful of their own interests. After the resignation of Sam Gyimah, more from Airbus over the Galileo farce :-

''The chief executive of Airbus has warned that the UK's departure from the €10bn (£8.9bn) European Galileo satellite project is a “serious blow to the EU’s common security and defense ambition.” “Don’t those talking about a ‘European army’ know that the UK is one of only two serious military powers in Europe?" Tom Enders tweeted on Monday.

Galileo is Europe's global navigation satellite system designed to be a rival to the US GPS system. It will not only support mobile phones and satnavs but also provide vital location information for the military and businesses
.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/12/03/uk-exit-eus-galileo-satellite-project-risks-europes-security/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 05, 2018, 03:49:16 PM
Brexit is driving me barmy but this Grauniad review of the 'front pages' was quite fun. SIX days of hell to come until the vote on the 11th - then what ?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/05/humiliation-on-a-historic-scale-what-the-papers-say-about-first-day-of-brexit-debate

Caller if you are around - the DT looked to have some powerful stuff today but I can't get in ?
Anything special ?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on December 05, 2018, 05:06:17 PM
Caller if you are around - the DT looked to have some powerful stuff today but I can't get in ?
Anything special ?

More of the same really.

Apparently a claim that despite claims to the contrary, a no deal can't be prevented (good).

May urged to go back and renegotiate - that's my view as well, although I believe the EU are still hoping Brexit will be overturned.

Apparently 25 remain Tory's will no longer support Mays capitulation.

More of the same really.

This whole mess is May's fault.

For what it's worth, this was my contribution to the debate elsewhere:

What's happening is quite scary.

May really is the architect of this debacle. Legal principles notwithstanding. For leavers, the fundamental issue is a lack of faith and trust in May, because of how she has conducted herself, her policies and the way she is trying to bludgeon her deal through. The contempt she has shown to the public in the last few days, both in ludicrous Treasury and BoE forecasts, basically treating them as fools, puts any of her dealings with Parliament into the shade.

What Parliament should be concentrating on now is getting a decent Brexit deal. May's deal, 'the best on offer', was never going to be meekly accepted and her lack of judgement and that of her advisors is laid bare for all to see.

Parliament also needs to calm down now and start thinking of the bigger picture and the damage that will be caused to it's own reputation and future if Brexit isn't delivered.

It was shameful to see MP's openly talking of overturning Brexit. They seem to have forgotten the democratic process. There will be all hell to pay if Brexit doesn't happen. Its naïve to think that another referendum, if voting to remain, will be, 'phew, okay, everything is back to normal and please carry on as before.' That just isn't going to happen.

I think May should head back to Brussels and seek to improve her deal. The trouble is, that the commission probably smell blood and think they can overturn Brexit.

It's ironic, that the EU judges opinion that the UK can simply back away from Brexit could possibly be challenged by the EU, as it could create mayhem, with various subservient states using this threat as a bargaining tool. 'you don't agree with us, okay, we're out - come back to us when you have something better to offer'.

I see the whole edifice slowly crumbling down and I couldn't be happier if it does!

I see the 'far right' i.e. not liberal, have a toe hold in Government in Spain again, for the first time since Franco. Again, their results exceeded expectations. In Sweden, 3 months after the election, a national Government still can't be formed because no-one will work with the Sweden Democrats, whereas at local level, Government is functioning perfectly normally, including Sweden Democrats.

I no longer believe the UK will be exempt from such political turmoil in the future, it can't be any worse than what we have at present.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 06, 2018, 09:12:34 AM
Caller thanks very much for posting that 'contribution'  :)  Good reading.

Roll on next Tuesday I say. There'll be lots of comings and goings before then, but I desperately hope May's 'deal' is rejected in the end and the more decisively the better.

How and where we go from there - who knows ? Nil desperandum.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 10, 2018, 08:09:05 PM
Sugar me - the UK have kicked it down the road again !!!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/10/brexit-latest-news-vote-theresa-mays-deal-air-rivals-eye-leadership/

Big changes in Governments in Germany, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Hungary (??) while France has some notable issues . . . . .

On a different tack - I think Sir John Major has a lot to answer for :-

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1056799/brexit-betrayal-ecj-ruling-echoes-maastricht-treaty-theresa-may-latest-spt

Not sure where this is going but - Goodnight !    8)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on December 11, 2018, 12:49:40 PM
This pathetic governments time must be up:

Brexit is a complete humiliation
Transport is in disarray with no investment in the north and budget overruns in the south on Crossrail and the wasteful expense of HS2 and  Heathrow.
Hinckley is another project costing billions that will see money leaving the UK for France and China while all evidence shows renewable energy is more cost efficient.
Inequalty in the UK (which arguably fuelled the Brexit vote) continues apace as the unwieldy Universal credit is implemented and food bank usage soars.
Meanwhile the £ falls further and the stock market slumps.
Time to call off Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on December 11, 2018, 04:00:09 PM
Inequalty in the UK (which arguably fuelled the Brexit vote)

I know one who will not "buy it" ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 11, 2018, 04:20:35 PM
Hi Teess. I agree with much of your comment, particularly about inequality, which also seems to be the driver behind Mr Macron's troubles atm. But Brexit is the same as a difficult tooth extraction - once you start, you just can't stop until it's done. The UK can't simply 'call it off' despite the ECJ now making it possible.

I wonder when a Prime Minister last survived after suffering 3 defeats in one day and being reprimanded for being 'deeply discourteous' to Parliament. You were saying this sometime ago but now, I have to agree. As it turns out, May has been a disaster. Unmitigated.

She'll have to go!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on December 11, 2018, 04:42:28 PM
I agree that Brexit needs to be resolved but revoking article 50 will at least give us time to do so in a way that doesn't adversely affect the UK or threaten its break-up.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 11, 2018, 04:50:28 PM
Sorry Teess but I think revoking Article 50 ends the Brexit process altogether, leaving  us as a full Member of the EU ? ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on December 11, 2018, 05:03:37 PM
Yes I know. When we discover how to do it we can invoke if again. Do you really think there is a solution to be found in the next 3 months? Alternatively back to the people.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Coolkorat on December 11, 2018, 06:13:46 PM
There's an interesting article about second referendums here: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/10/19/asking-the-public-twice-why-do-voters-change-their-minds-in-second-referendums-on-eu-treaties/

The Remainers have learnt their lesson and are champing for a second referendum. Mrs May may well hand it to them.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on December 11, 2018, 07:04:56 PM
Hi Teess. I agree with much of your comment, particularly about inequality, which also seems to be the driver behind Mr Macron's troubles atm.

This is the scary thing. For those whom the EU affected most badly, nothing has changed and all those baying MP's seem more intent on petty point scoring than helping to find a solution or worrying about the reason Brexit happened in the first place.

We are really getting into a people v parliament constitutional crisis here. You simply cannot revoke Brexit. You simply cannot offer another referendum. It's actually quite incredible that a small group of people seem determined to overturn a democratic vote and don't understand the consequences of that. 

I agree with you Roger, the job has to be finished. But preferably without May and if a no-deal, so be it.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on December 12, 2018, 10:52:58 AM
For those whom the EU affected most badly

I'm sure you meant to say: for those whom globalisation affected most badly. Maybe your keyboard has an auto-correct function you're unaware of, Caller. All terms indicating real causes of the troubled times we live in (globalisation, tax evasion, republicanism, neoliberalism, populism, fundamentalism...), your keyboard turns them automatically into "EU". Don't worry, it would be worse if it was your mind doing so.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on December 12, 2018, 02:17:45 PM
I'm sure you meant to say: for those whom globalisation affected most badly.

No I didn't, thanks(?) all the same.

How is your Government managing these day's? Seemingly getting ready to lurch away from the EU as it stands?

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-government-charles-michel-identity-crisis-isnt-about-migration/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 12, 2018, 02:29:48 PM
The 1922 Committee have called a 'Vote of Confidence' in Mrs May's leadership - TONIGHT !

If this vote fails - we're stuck in May's mire for at least 12 months - (unless she resigns).

IMHO, there's NO hope of a positive resolution OF ANY KIND with the Brexit confusion, unless we are 'MAY FREE'. Time to move on Theresa . . .

 :(    :(    :(
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on December 13, 2018, 12:22:22 PM
Well, the vote came and went and she didn't!  >:(

I can't understand those MP's saying they believe she is still best placed to deliver Brexit. Her only plan has failed - period. So why on Earth do they believe she can still deliver, when what she came back with, was so bad, she pulled the vote, as it would have resulted in a heavy defeat?

She will fail in her attempt to get any changes made to 'the deal' and as a consequence, the so-called meaningful vote on the non-deal will be cancelled and the deal withdrawn. It's now up to her cabinet to bring her to heel. Liam Fox has already hinted this is on the cards. But I don't trust any of them anymore, either.

She will probably go in the next few weeks.

I would now prefer to see Brexit delayed and a new Brexit supporting leader and advisors get tough with the EU. They are on the brink of a new recession and Macrons actions haven't helped them. We are now in a stronger position to walk away than ever before as a meaningful negotiating tool as the EU simply cannot afford the disruption. This isn't new thinking, anyone that has been listening to the warnings of businesses and senior politicians in various Countries, including Germany, will be aware of this, even if ignored by our own Government as it doesn't suit their aims. But it is finely laid out by Andrew Evans-Pritchard in his article for the Telegraph this morning.

Teresa May and her remainer advisors have worked against the decision of the referendum from the outset and as such, have betrayed the democratic vote. The opinion of the majority of MP's who seem to believe that this is fine and that once we get this 'nasty mess' behind us, we can all move on are simply deluding themselves. This could see the break up of the status quo of UK politics that has been in place since the war. I certainly hope so. The people need to defend democracy if the politicians won't.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 14, 2018, 06:09:01 AM
So we are 'stuck in May's mire' for at least the next few weeks, or until Labour calls a VoC, or 12 months (via another VoC) or until the 2022 General Election.

Caller your Reply 530 - excellent thanks again.
I still remember ''the women is a complete barmpot''  :)  Absolument !

I recall commenting that the EU 'Negotiators' (Robert?) never intended to be reasonable or helpful with respect to the Brexit decision made by the UK electorate. The EU have instead exploited any real problems and obfuscated and bullied Mrs May on every front, despite the best efforts of David Davis and Dominic Rabb and others. The UK stands now, politically exhausted and confused with no apparent way forward  :(

We need some real Leadership and Mrs May certainly can't provide that !
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 14, 2018, 07:11:47 PM
My limited access to the DT, (what with the falling £), yields this with a quick look . . .

''The Tories erupted in civil war on Thursday as Chancellor Philip Hammond was branded “a complete moron” for referring to Eurosceptic colleagues as “extremists” and Brexiteer MPs vowed to block the passage of the Government’s withdrawal agreement into law.

Within hours of Theresa May winning a vote of no confidence, Conservative in-fighting spilled out into the open, with Mr Hammond referred to as a “t---” and an unnamed minister reported to have bragged: “I’d like to punch the ERG in the face”, a reference to the European Research Group of Eurosceptic MPs which led Wednesday’s attempted coup
...''

AND . . .

''After weeks encouraging enough MPs to demand a vote of confidence in Theresa May's leadership, Jacob Rees-Mogg got what he wanted yesterday. But he did not succeed in persuading his colleagues to oust her, as they voted by 200-117 for her to stay on.

The Prime Minister has taken this as licence to stay on in her job, with the European Research Group reduced to complaining that she should go and visit the Queen nonetheless and resign forthwith because "an overwhelming majority of backbenchers” wanted her out. Unsurprisingly, the notoriously stubborn Mrs May has not heeded the call
.''

And the unfairly maligned (IMHO) ID-S . . .

''The result of the confidence vote on Wednesday night was a shock to Downing Street. That over a third of the Parliamentary party declined to support the Prime Minister sounds bad enough. It is even worse when one discounts the votes of those MPs who are members of the government and realises that around two thirds of backbenchers declined to give Theresa May their support. The last seven days of chaos, starting with the refusal to release the Attorney General’s legal opinion, followed by three defeats for the government on one day . . ''

Interesting times indeed ! GLA

 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on December 14, 2018, 07:18:28 PM
So it's started. The Euro is heading for recession, QE is to be cancelled and whilst the ECB claims it is a 'hiccup' due to the fall out of car emissions in Germany and French protests, financial experts and economists from around the World are poo-poohing this as wishful thinking and saying the situation is far worse than the ECB is admitting to, or even sees. Unless they urgently agree a Euro wide fiscal policy, Brexit might not be needed as the EU will implode. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 15, 2018, 06:11:58 AM
Hi Caller - implosion would be good - maybe that's wishful thing  8)

The DX - ''CHARLES de Gaulle was the unlikely prophet of Brexit and he was “right” to oppose Britain’s application to join the European project, Margaret Thatcher's pioneering treatise.''

Later in the same article :-

''''The Iron Lady noted that Mr De Gaulle was “half right” as “by her history and her interests, Britain is indeed a fundamentally different kind of nation state to those which are involved in ‘building’ Europe”. However, Baroness Thatcher argued that “one would have to add, as de Gaulle himself could not, that it was more than economics that was at issue”. She explained: "It was Britain’s long history of continuous constitutional development, the respect in which her institutions were held, the honesty of her politicians and the integrity of her judges, the fact that not since the Norman Conquest had she known occupation, and that neither Nazism nor communism had ever gained grip on her political life - all these things marked Britain out from Continental Europe.

But I repeat, the General was right in so far as his pride allowed: Britain is different.  “That is why Britain is still repeatedly at odds with the other European countries, however determinedly cooperative British politicians wish to be.”''''

I am not one to agree with the Iron Lady about much but IMO that was spot on  ;)

Mainland Europeans might feel offended by this stance, but it is largely true is it not ?

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 15, 2018, 06:31:45 AM
We remember how David Cameron fought against the appointment of Juncker as President of the European Commission. IMHO he was more than right. Any thoughts on this sort of dignity from the EU's Leader?  :o

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6497315/Bizarre-moment-Jean-Claude-Juncker-seen-ruffling-womans-hair.html
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Hector on December 15, 2018, 08:57:47 AM
 I confess to being an unashamed fan of The Iron Lady!  I reckon had she been the PM now, Jean Claude winker, Michel barmy and others would have been staggering away with wobbly bottom lips, covered in handbag bruises and Britain would have been out of Europe by now.  I noticed in the DX today an excerpt from her book in she wrote about the single currency: “This project is essentially political, rather than economic.  The power to issue a currently is fundamentally an attribute of sovereignty, not some symbolic or technical matter.  ....without the power to issue and so to control one’s own currency a state can no longer be said to determine its own economic policy: it can no longer sets its interest rates in line with monetary conditions and other requirements.  Instead interest rates are set for it by a supra-national authority according to supra-national criteria.
A state’s ability to cope with economic shocks or to respond to economic cycles is thus very much contained. It is, consequently, forced to rely on fiscal means alone to ride out difficulties.
The European single currency is bound to fail, economically, politically and indeed socially, though the timing, occasion and full consequences are still necessarily unclear.  It therefore follows that countries which have not already joined the project would be well-advised to keep out.  The failure cannot be rectified by the American or other international attempts to rescue the euro, because the fundamentals of the euro-land are irremediably unsound."
Both she and de Gaulle had wiser heads on their shoulders than they are often given credit for.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on December 15, 2018, 11:05:28 AM
Hi Caller - implosion would be good - maybe that's wishful thing

Things have worsened in the few days since this article.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/opinion/eu-italy-debt-crisis.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FEuropean%20Sovereign%20Debt%20Crisis%20(2009-%20)

The architect?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/business/angela-merkel-economics-populism.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FEuropean%20Sovereign%20Debt%20Crisis%20(2009-%20)

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 15, 2018, 03:48:28 PM
Hector - I don't think I ever agreed with Mrs Thatcher about anything else at all, but the passage you have posted is absolutely 100% spot on IMO. Then came Major and Maastricht !  :(  ATB.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 17, 2018, 04:18:09 AM
Lord (Chris) Patten, 17 minutes into Radio 4, 'The World this Weekend' yesterday :-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0001mtk

An animated Chris Patten says that Mrs May's deal is 'dead' and that 'however much lipstick you put on a pig, it's still a pig' . . .  ??? It's 'impossible to get a deal that will satisfy the EU and ourselves'. That's encouraging then.

CP says put the deal to the HoC asap/now - no concessions are coming so we have to know.
May is a poor beleagured woman trying to do something impossible.

The Political Declaration that follows the Withdrawal Agreement, is 'empty to the point of vacuity' and uses lots of comments like 'best endeavours' at which, CP 'usually reaches for the smelling salts'.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0001mtk

Worth 10 minutes of time to those interested.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 23, 2018, 07:26:26 AM
The sleazy Jean Claude Juncker - I sometimes wonder if everything would have been different if David Cameron's objections to his Appointment had been heeded. This IS sexist and disgraceful behaviour - Resign JCJ !!   >:(

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6521873/Amber-Rudd-blasts-ghastly-EU-chief-Jean-Claude-Juncker.html
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on December 28, 2018, 05:01:27 PM
The Brexit drama is bubbling nicely for the New Year. Tim Martin of my beloved Wetherspoons lauds Boris Johnson to replace Mrs May and lead Hard Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn tells Mrs May to recall Parliament 1 week early, and somewhere, I read that the EU Elections coming in May will see a very different European Parliament, with anti EU elements in many countries having a fuller representation . . . and :-

''MPs have warned of the dangers of the Brexit transition period after it emerged that hundreds of thousands of small businesses could be forced to pay VAT for the first time after Britain leaves the European Union. Brussels is preparing to reduce the threshold at which businesses start paying VAT from a turnover of £85,000 to £76,700 in a bid to "harmonise" tax systems.

MPs on the EU scrutiny committee warned Britain will have to accept the move if it comes into force after Brexit in March 2019 because it will lose its right to veto the plans
.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/27/eu-planning-hit-small-businesses-uk-vat-bombshell-brexit-mps/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on January 09, 2019, 05:47:21 AM
I've been listening to the latest machinations in May's Brexit vortex - it's deadly boring but oh so important  ::)

The HoC can only find consensus in what it is against . . .

A second referendum is pointless - then a 3rd, 4th, 5th ?

A General Election would only confirm the present paralysis ?

Will we extend Article 50 ? If we do, the paralysis continues . . .

Well done the EU - everything has gone to plan  >:(

Somehow Mrs May has to go - maybe Leadership can then emerge to edge this forward.

Caller - I'd really like to see your take on this. (And anyone else's  :))
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on January 09, 2019, 10:51:26 AM
No view to take.

Parliament is in a very dangerous position where the majority seem to be seeking to deny the democratic process.

They have voted against 'no deal' in effect, making it harder for any Govt. to negotiate, but quite frankly, no deal is where we are heading as thisgs stand. Poll after poll shows this is what the majority favour.

We are witnessing the breakdown of the last 60+ years of the political party status quo, but MPs just don't realise or see that. No party will emerge from Brexit unscathed and the arrogance and contempt displayed by MP's of all parties towards Governence and the electorate will not be forgiven.

We need a leaderwith strength and vision and we haven't got one.

The EU continues to fall apart day by day. The German economy is now a flash point and nearing recession, consumer spending is weak and Brexit fears are having an effect, France is France and appears stuffed, yellow shirt protests are spreading, Italy faced down the the EU over their debt, which is still bubbling, Sweden still can't form a Government after Septembers elections and are there elections in Belgium this month? Spain tensions are increasing and EU elections are in May. Can't imagine too many pro-eu parties doing well?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on January 09, 2019, 02:03:38 PM
Thanks Caller. I agree with Chris Patten -''Mrs May's deal is 'dead' and that 'however much lipstick you put on a pig, it's still a pig'''

I hope they go ahead with that vote on Tuesday.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on January 16, 2019, 02:43:56 PM
Alfie - your first post after the Lancaster House speech Jan 18th 2017 - ''I've just watched Theresa May's Brexit speech. Quite good, I thought.''

I wonder what you think now ?   ::)

Caller - strewth. First indications are Mrs May is going to continue ?
VoC today which the Tories will win ?

Just one of the DT's articles is headed, ''It takes a special kind of skill to get that many people to unite against you, but Theresa May has managed it.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/15/voting-brexit-deal-proves-parliament-can-contempt-people/

118 Tory MP's voted against the 'deal'. Only 3 Labour MP's voted for it. Bloody 'ell - defeated by 230 votes. And she stays  ???  I'm glad the DM is back - some good graphics and pics here.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6595749/How-Theresa-abandoned-118-MPs.html
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on January 16, 2019, 04:07:41 PM
It beggars belief that parliament can deliver the biggest defeat ever on a government yet the next day can vote that they have full confidence in this government.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dereklev on January 16, 2019, 05:33:52 PM
It beggars belief that parliament can deliver the biggest defeat ever on a government yet the next day can vote that they have full confidence in this government.

I am watching Sky News and was thinking exactly the same ???
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on January 16, 2019, 09:07:14 PM
It beggars belief that parliament can deliver the biggest defeat ever on a government yet the next day can vote that they have full confidence in this government.

Yes, there are many absurdities in this whole process.

I see the Irish Govt. have been caught planning for border crossings, accidentally, whilst a tape was still running. Apparently, they don't want to be blamed for it.

We are now in a really strong position if we had a Parliament and PM with balls. The EU would struggle to survive a no deal at the best of times, but with their economy going down the pan, there will be a lot of worried leaders out there.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on January 17, 2019, 06:27:52 AM
I have to come back on my decision not to react anymore on this topic because have to say I admire the British in their attitude to this chaos. You islanders a quite a bunch of people  ;D ;D ;D

It's like: always look on the bright side of life. In case you have forgotten the lyrics ;D ;D ;D:

Cheer up, Brian. You know what they say.
Some things in life are bad,
They can really make you mad.
Other things just make you swear and curse.
When you're chewing on life's gristle,
Don't grumble, give a whistle!
And this'll help things turn out for the best
And
Always look on the bright side of life!
Always look on the bright side of life
If life seems jolly rotten,
There's something you've forgotten!
And that's to laugh and smile and dance and sing,
When you're feeling in the dumps,
Don't be silly chumps,
Just purse your lips and whistle -- that's the thing!
And always look on the bright side of life
Come on!
Always look on the bright side of life
For life is quite absurd,
And death's the final word.
You must always face the curtain with a bow!
Forget…
Always look on the bright side of life
Come on guys, cheer up
Always look on the bright side of life
Always look on the bright side of life
Worse things happen at sea you know
Always look on the bright side of life
I mean, what have you got to lose?
you know, you come from nothing
you're going back to nothing
what have you lost? Nothing!
Always look on the bright side of life
Songwriters: Eric Idle
Always Look at the Bright Side of Life lyrics © Universal Music Publishing Group



We Dutch would say: wishful thinking maybe? IMHO nobody who really need the money will profit from this Brexit. We will have to see what comes up next........

Robert
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on January 17, 2019, 02:12:36 PM
Hi Robert and thanks for your comments.

Today I am suffering brexit depression - I saw the VoC debate last night.
Mrs May is undoubtedly a brave and determined character even though she lives in a world of bullsh*t.

If our Political Parties had been aligned around Brexit positions it would have been a lot simpler to get this sorted one way or the other. I suppose that UKIP took us in that direction but Cameron pinched their wind with his Referendum proposal.

I wonder what the ERG are up to now ? Until May goes, any progress is IMO dead in the water. Maybe the EU will fall apart on it's own then we can all leave  ;)

Teess - I agree with yours - it's mindboggling ain't it ?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on January 17, 2019, 02:27:13 PM
May is deluded. She invites proposals from those that voted against her yet rules out any movement on her ridiculous red lines. No alternative now but to extend article 50 so that the farce continues. Yes there are signs of opposition to free movement within the EU which may lead somewhere eventually. Finally its worth noting that in the last year July 1 2017 to June 30 2018) EU immigration to UK has reduced to 74,000 while non EU immigration has increased to 248,000. Figures from ONS.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Coolkorat on January 17, 2019, 04:50:45 PM
If the EU eurocrats really want to deal a coup de grâce to the UK they would announce a major EU treaty conference to match the significance of Lisbon with a timescale of two years (preparation, preliminary meeting, formal meeting). Put everything on the table, from immigration to financial reform to farming etc. Overnight, UK parliament (whose majority are 'remainers') would be given a gold-plated excuse to park Brexit. But that old soak JCJuncker may not see through a fog of fine Merlot to make this call. If taken seriously, and done properly, it might fix the problems of Europe (which mainly involves removing the lampreys from Brussels).
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on January 17, 2019, 06:51:30 PM
There are EU elections in May, so no such proposed deal could go ahead without the new EU Parliament endorsing it and Juncker will be history in May. It's widely expected that Eurosceptic national populists will make gains so the current status quo is coming to an end in any case and hopefully some new faces with different views will be elected to the Commission.

The news that nearly half the EU will be in recession - again- by then, will help the eurosceptics as Germany starts banging the drum for more austerity. They hold the key actually. QE is coming to an end as the German Parliament will no longer support it, but without it, it's kiss kiss bye-bye to the Euro.

Now is the time for a strong pm to attack back at the EU as the EU is neither ready nor able to cope with the economic fallout, of a no deal, but alas, Parliament has blocked that and May is a twat. Hammond has been caught being a bit naughty in a conference call with various businesses and his traitorous behaviour exposed. Even talking of rescinding article 50. In other times, he would resign is shame, be sacked, someone might have a pop at him, but hey-ho, he will just carry on as normal as May is so weak and not really in charge any more.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on January 18, 2019, 05:50:01 AM
Caller - your first sentence is greatly cheering  ;D  Goodbye to 'ghastly' Claude.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6521873/Amber-Rudd-blasts-ghastly-EU-chief-Jean-Claude-Juncker.html

AS for the ERG and BJ - here's today's DT . . .

''Mr Johnson will urge the Government to focus on the “issues that drove Brexit” and “use this moment to become more productive and more dynamic”. He will say: “Yes [Brexit] was about democracy…but that vote was also triggered by a feeling that in some way the people of this country have been drifting too far apart and in areas where we need to come together.

We all know about boardroom pay and the huge expansion in the last 25 years of the gap between the remuneration of FTSE 100 CEOs and the average workers in their firms.''

It's probably not original to think that inequality has after the transition to modern times, become, the No 1. problem behind widespread discontent around Europe, the USA and the almost anywhere in the World. It makes me quite angry to think about it. In many Countries, inequality is fuelled further by corruption.
GO Boris !

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/17/boris-johnson-brexit-can-unite-britain-low-tax-low-migration/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on January 22, 2019, 01:55:40 AM
Theresa May's predicament captured neatly in this cartoon :-

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2019/jan/20/ben-jennings-on-theresa-mays-control-over-the-brexit-process-cartoon
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on January 28, 2019, 08:42:35 PM
I'm listening to the 'World at One' with some chat going on about Brexit. IMO the BBC are now so very biased, raking up anyone to mention that in the UK they might be short of a lettuce or a warrant or something else really important, for a few days. I'm quite shocked about it. Shame on the BBC.

Brexit will be a major disruption but the UK will survive and then prosper. The Leadership on the Brexit push ended when Nigel Farage thought his job was done and later, Boris lost his way. We've looked and voted. LEAP !
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on January 30, 2019, 02:48:03 PM
Caller it's my guess that the EU won't come up with any compromise at all. Mrs May has held the Tory Govt together atm but that won't last long as a 'No Deal' Brexit approaches on March 29th. With this in mind, I hope Mrs May doesn't offer the EU another GBP 10 million for a 12 month extension to prepare for a hard Brexit.

In this Guardian article, a photo of a yawning Tory front bench  ;)  I know just how they feel. And :-

''She was now urging the House to vote down the deal she had insisted only a few days ago was the best Brexit deal that could be possibly negotiated and support instead an amendment instructing her to go back and reopen the withdrawal agreement that the EU had insisted couldn’t be reopened.''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/29/after-two-years-of-no-progress-whatsoever-bring-on-plan-c-minus
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on February 01, 2019, 07:52:59 AM
A.E-P in the DT :-

''German anger builds over dangerous handling of Brexit by EU ideologues - A group of top German economists has told the EU to tear up the Irish backstop and ditch its ideological demands in Brexit talks, calling instead for a flexible Europe of concentric circles that preserves friendly ties with the UK. Brussels must “abandon its indivisibility dogma” on the EU’s four freedoms and come up with a creative formula or risk a disastrous showdown with London that could all too easily spin out of control.''

I doubt this will make any difference myself. The EU Commission fanatics have the 27 Nation states, trussed and bound. . . .
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on February 25, 2019, 07:25:39 AM
Boris Johnson in the DX today and IMO well said  ;)

''There is nothing extreme about standing by democracy. I don’t know about you, but I am getting sick of the constant suggestion that anyone who sticks up for Brexit must have far Right tendencies. I can’t understand why people are suddenly claiming that anyone who wants to get out of the EU – and follow the instructions of the British people – is a zealot, or an extremist, or Ukip, or Blukip, or some kind of ultra-conservative bigot. Where is this stuff coming from?''

In another DT report :-

''Brexit will be delayed for up to two months under plans being considered by Theresa May to extend Article 50, The Telegraph has learned. Downing Street officials have drawn up a series of options in a bid to avoid resignations by ministers determined to support a backbench bid to take no deal off the table this week. The Prime Minister said she will delay a meaningful vote on her deal by up to two weeks until March 12, just 17 days before the UK is due to leave the European Union.''

Anyone any idea where this going ?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on February 25, 2019, 01:23:31 PM
Anyone any idea where this going ?

A complete and absolute breakdown of trust between the people and those who claim to represent them. Extremism is when MP's openly state that Corbyn isn't doing enough to stop Brexit, contrary to the democratic vote and the party's own manifesto, not to mention the support given to Govt. to proceed. Some Tories are just as bad.
Title: Re: Brexit - Britain's May faces growing calls to delay Brexit
Post by: info on February 26, 2019, 07:59:03 PM
Britain's May faces growing calls to delay Brexit

 Prime Minister Theresa May faced mounting pressure Tuesday from her own government to delay Brexit after the main opposition Labour Party raised the prospect of a second referendum.

May has steadfastly argued that she must keep the prospect of Britain crashing out the bloc without an agreement on March 29 on the table in order to wrest essential concessions from Brussels.

But her talks with European leaders on Sunday and Monday in Egypt achieved no breakthrough and the 46-year relationship is approaching a messy breakup that could wreak havoc on global markets and create border chaos

That possibility is prompting a growing chorus of ministers to call on May to propose a short Brexit delay.

"We implore the government to take that step this week," three junior ministers wrote in Tuesday's Daily Mail newspaper.

"We must act immediately to ensure that we are not swept over the precipice on March 29," they wrote.

Culture and media minister Margot James told BBC radio she signed the letter because "we felt honour-bound to actually do something to help prevent such catastrophe".

It was co-written by business minister Richard Harrington and energy minister Claire Perry.

Three more senior cabinet members published a similar letter over the weekend.

The Daily Mail said as many as 15 ministers were "said to be ready to resign".

- 'Free debate' -

May huddled with her top team members before heading to parliament to map out her strategy for the final 31 days of a process that began when Brexit won 52-48 in a June 2016 vote.

Her effective number two David Lidington said May and her cabinet would hold a "free debate" about her next steps in Britain's biggest political crisis in a generation.

But he refused to confirm multiple newspaper reports saying she would offer a short Brexit date extension if her deal fails to win lawmakers' support by a self-imposed March 12 deadline.

"I am not going to predict what the PM will say later today," Lidington said.

The rebel ministers are all backing a proposed parliamentary amendment that would force May to set a new Brexit date if she fails to get better terms on the disputed issue of the Irish border.

Lawmakers will get a chance to vote on the emergency measure on Wednesday.

Any delay would likely infuriate powerful eurosceptics in both May's government and party who fear Brexit either being watered down or reversed.

And those still hoping to avert the split were boosted by the Labour Party's conditional decision to back a second Brexit referendum on Monday.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn had infuriated many party faithful by hedging his bets and simply offering to negotiate a deal that would keep Britain more closely bound to other 27 EU states.

But he bowed to the pressure from the more EU-friendly wing of his party by offering a way to halt "a damaging Tory Brexit".

Labour's Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer said the party on Wednesday would put its own Brexit deal proposal up for a parliament vote.

"If it doesn't go through, we the Labour Party will either put down ourselves or support an amendment in favour of a public vote," Starmer told BBC radio.

"A public vote ought to be between the option on the one hand of a credible leave option and on the other hand remain."

bangkokpost.com (https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/world/1635498/britains-may-faces-growing-calls-to-delay-brexit)
Title: Re: Brexit - Britain's May faces growing calls to delay Brexit
Post by: caller on February 26, 2019, 08:11:52 PM
Labour's Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer said the party on Wednesday would put its own Brexit deal proposal up for a parliament vote.

"If it doesn't go through, we the Labour Party will either put down ourselves or support an amendment in favour of a public vote," Starmer told BBC radio.

"A public vote ought to be between the option on the one hand of a credible leave option and on the other hand remain."


Kiss kiss goodbye Labour. You forgot who you are meant to be representing. Here's a clue - it's not the luvvies in London.
Title: Re: Brexit - British PM offers lawmakers a choice - no-deal or delay?
Post by: info on February 27, 2019, 10:30:53 AM
Bit more the same,same as the pound slowly creeps up

May's Brexit Deal, no-deal or Delay? British PM Offers Lawmakers a Choice

In a move which pushes back the Brexit cliff edge by three months to the end of June, May announced she was to give the lawmakers two votes on March 13-14 if she failed to get a deal approved by March 12.

Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday offered lawmakers the chance to vote in two weeks for a potentially disorderly no-deal Brexit or to delay Britain's exit from the European Union if her attempt to ratify a divorce agreement fails.

Opening up the possibility of a delay and removing the immediate threat of a no-deal exit on March 29 marks one of the biggest turning points in the United Kingdom's labyrinthine Brexit crisis since the 2016 referendum vote to leave the EU.

In a move which pushes back the Brexit cliff edge by three months to the end of June, May announced she was to give the lawmakers two votes on March 13-14 if she failed to get a deal approved by March 12.

The government would allow a vote on March 13 at the latest asking whether lawmakers supported leaving without a deal. If they rejected such an option, on March 14 they would vote on a "short, limited extension" Brexit delay.

"The United Kingdom will only leave without a deal on March 29 if there is explicit consent in the House for that outcome," May said, though she was clear that the British government was not removing the ultimate threat of a no-deal Brexit.

"An extension cannot take no deal off the table," May said. "The only way to do that is to revoke Article 50, which I shall not do, or agree a deal."

May said any extension, not beyond the end of June, would almost certainly have to be a one off and that her government must honour the decision to leave the EU because the credibility of British democracy was at stake.

Earlier, The Sun and Daily Mail newspapers reported that May would formally rule out a no-deal Brexit. Reuters reported on Monday that May's government was looking at different options, including a possible delay.

Sterling, which has lost about 20 cents against the dollar since the 2016 Brexit referendum, rallied 1.4 percent to $1.3284, the highest since September 2018, and it also rallied strongly against the euro.

"She seems to be giving us a date for a new cliff edge - the end of June," veteran pro-EU Conservative lawmaker Kenneth Clarke said of May's statement.

NEW CLIFF EDGE?

The EU would be ready to ...

full article news18.com (https://www.news18.com/news/world/mays-brexit-deal-no-deal-or-delay-british-pm-offers-lawmakers-a-choice-2049711.html)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on February 27, 2019, 01:14:40 PM
God knows what happens next:
Kicking the can down the road seems to be the limit of May's abilities.

The options are:
No Deal    Can't be done without a vote and majority very unlikely
May's deal. A rubbish deal which leaves us worse off, union threatened, and £30bn poorer.
Corbyn style customs union deal. Same as no brexit except we dont go to the meetings.
No Brexit. Only possible after another referendum and if it goes against Brexit it will not mean the nightmare is over.
But hey the pound has bounced back.
I dont agree that the labour stance is suicidal. Their membership voted overwhelmingly remain and plenty of labour voters did too. It could be srgued that ignoring the labour remainers would lose them more votes. My labour Teesside MP is still pushing for remain via the peoples vote. What is undemocratic about a new vote to choose between Mays deal or no Brexit.?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on February 27, 2019, 01:45:03 PM
This chaos is the result of Mrs May's deferential negotiating style . . .
Project 'Fear of No Deal' has been allowed to run riot - just what are the 'Brexiteer' leaders up to ? The 'Remain' establishment seem to be running riot atm.

I'd be horrified if the UK accepts any form of open ended obeisance to the EU.

The EU don't seem to be ready to give any ground. Why should they start being helpful now ?

No deal. WTO terms. March 29th please.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on February 27, 2019, 02:07:36 PM
Hi Roger,

you did quote The Guardian a few times in the past. Did you miss this article?

Robert


Economy could be 9% weaker under no-deal Brexit, government says


Latest no-deal notice forecasts Northern Ireland to be hit hard and food prices likely to rise.

The government has issued a bleak warning over a no-deal Brexit, estimating the UK economy could be 9% weaker in the long run, businesses in Northern Ireland might go bust and food prices will increase.

In an official document only published after repeated demands by the former Conservative MP Anna Soubry, the government also revealed it was behind on contingency planning for a third of “critical projects” in relation to business and trade.

The latest no-deal notice states:

    The economy would be 6%-9% smaller over the next 15 years than it otherwise might have been, in the event of no deal, in line with Bank of England forecasts.

    The flow of goods through Dover would be “very significantly reduced for months”.

    With 30% of food coming from the EU, prices are likely to increase and there is a risk that panic buying might create shortages.

    Only six of the 40 planned international trade agreements have been signed.

The document was published just hours after Theresa May was forced to promise two key votes, allowing MPs the option to reject no deal and to potentially delay Brexit for a short period, following pressure from remain-minded cabinet ministers.
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The prime minister set out a timetable that includes a vote on her Brexit deal by 12 March; if that fails, a vote the following day to support no deal, and if that also fails, a vote on 14 March on extending article 50.

The delay is likely to further agitate the Tory party’s Eurosceptics, with Brexiter ministers including Andrea Leadsom and Liz Truss expressing their frustration over the issue in cabinet on Tuesday morning.

Speaking in the House of Commons on Tuesday, May did not specify the length of any delay, saying only that she would prefer it to be the shortest possible. An extension beyond the end of June would involve the UK taking part in the European parliament elections.

Cabinet ministers are keen for May to use any delay to try to force a cross-party consensus.

The no-deal notice said customs checks alone could cost businesses £13bn a year and that it was impossible to predict the impact of new tariffs. It said this was partly because the government’s communications to businesses and individuals about the need to prepare for no deal had not been effective.

It said small- to medium-sized businesses were not making basic preparations despite government advice to do so. Only 40,000 of 240,000 businesses that had no experience of customs or tariffs had registered for an economic operator registration and identification number.

The government said that while it might wave hauliers through British ports, “they would be stopped if taking goods into France without the right paperwork”. This amounts to the most robust rebuttal yet of Brexiter claims that there would be no delays because the British would be taking a loose approach to checks and controls.

Evidence suggested the public had not been heeding no-deal warnings either, with no “noticeable behaviour change” witnessed on a “significant scale” over the need to renew passports, and get international driving permits and green cards for insurance for driving in the EU, it said.

The EU, which would treat the UK as a third country in the event of no deal, could impose tariffs of 70% on beef exports, 45% on lamb and 10% on cars, it said.

“This would be compounded by the challenges of even modest reductions in flow at the border.”

The impact on the economy would vary across the UK, with Wales and Scotland’s economies estimated to be about 8% smaller under a no deal scenario over the next 15 years, when compared to today’s arrangements. In the Northern Ireland, the economy would be 9% smaller and in the north-east of England 10.5% smaller.

It added: “Overall, the cumulative impact from a no-deal scenario is expected to be more severe in Northern Ireland than in Great Britain, and to last for longer.”

This was because of expected disruption in the “closely interwoven supply chains and increasing costs that would affect the viability of many businesses across Northern Ireland. There is a risk that businesses in Northern Ireland will not have sufficient time to prepare. This could result in business failure.”

Scottish fishing would be badly hit as would Welsh sheep farming, with 92% of its lamb being exported to the EU, confirming the sector’s previous warnings that it could be “wiped out” by no deal.

The notice said the impact on the food and drink sector would be most pronounced in Wales, Scotland and particularly Northern Ireland, where the sector comprises 5.07% of the economy, compared to 1.38% for England.

It said fewer than one in 10 items would be affected by delays on the channel crossings but, because of the timing of a potential no-deal Brexit, supplies of fresh fruit and vegetables could be hit hardest.

“In the absence of other action from government, some food prices are likely to increase, and there is a risk that consumer behaviour could exacerbate, or create, shortages in this scenario,” it said.

The government revealed there were significant delays to critical projects being undertaken in preparation for no deal.

“In February, departments reported being on track for just under 85% of no-deal projects but, within that, on track for just over two thirds of the most critical projects,” it said.

The document confirmed that the Treasury had made more than £4bn available for no-deal planning, £2bn of which was allocated in December to support preparations for the 2019-20 financial year.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on February 27, 2019, 02:08:40 PM
I dont agree that the labour stance is suicidal. Their membership voted overwhelmingly remain and plenty of labour voters did too. It could be srgued that ignoring the labour remainers would lose them more votes. My labour Teesside MP is still pushing for remain via the peoples vote. What is undemocratic about a new vote to choose between Mays deal or no Brexit.?

Membership v voters. Pretty much sums up what's wrong with Labour.

There doesn't appear much support for a new referendum.

Best of 3?

After all you can't say what the electorate were told - that the referendum was a one-off and the outcome was binding, can after all, simply be replaced by another, just because the majority of MP's are pro-remain, despite voting Brexit through time and again.

If.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on February 27, 2019, 05:54:54 PM
In north east england leave pollled 58% of the votes(778,000). As tory voters are more likely to vote leave it is most likely that the majority of labour voters chose remain. It is those remainers who the labour party need to appeal to. Also in the crazy and outdated 2 party system do you really think labour voting leavers would then vote for the austerity party?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on February 27, 2019, 08:11:21 PM
In north east england leave pollled 58% of the votes(778,000). As tory voters are more likely to vote leave it is most likely that the majority of labour voters chose remain. It is those remainers who the labour party need to appeal to. Also in the crazy and outdated 2 party system do you really think labour voting leavers would then vote for the austerity party?

That's just not true and is far too simple. Go and do the research, it's all out there. The academic analysis about who voted for what isn't really disputed. What's argued about is what it means.

Two examples. Area's such as Luton, Slough and Birmingham largely voted leave. These areas are represented by large immigrant communities, without said immigrants voting leave, the leave vote could not have won.

In areas that I know well and worked at in West London. The leafier, better off, white areas largely voted remain. The less affluent neighbouring areas, but in the same borough where the white population is a big minority,voted leave.

Just saying Tories are more likely to vote leave is so wrong on so many levels. Blue collar workers were right up there and they will largely be working class. Maybe they are all Tories, but I don't see too many Tory MP's from such areas.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on February 28, 2019, 05:35:36 AM

Where are people when you need them???
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on February 28, 2019, 12:20:59 PM
Jivvy - nice one.

Robert - yes thanks I saw that Guardian article - typical remainer stuff but let's note the 'could be' and it's 6-9%. To the contrary, I've just heard a comment on Radio 4 that the World's largest investment fund (Norway?) believes that the UK is the best place to invest over the next 25 years.

Most Guardian scripts tend to the 'remainer' view IMO. ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on February 28, 2019, 12:53:29 PM
Robert - here it is . . .

''The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund is taking a 30-year bet that Britain will emerge from Brexit stronger outside the European Union. In an unexpected move, Norway’s £740 billion wealth fund said yesterday that it would increase its exposure to British companies, property and bonds regardless of the outcome of Brexit negotiations. This comes despite a 12 per cent fall in the value of its £62 billion of UK investments this year. Britain is the third largest market for the fund’s investment capital, which was built up from Norway’s oil and gas revenues.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/world-s-top-wealth-fund-puts-billions-into-britain-qswjw8637
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on February 28, 2019, 12:53:51 PM
Jivvy - nice one.

Robert - yes thanks I saw that Guardian article - typical remainer stuff but let's note the 'could be' and it's 6-9%. To the contrary, I've just heard a comment on Radio 4 that the World's largest investment fund (Norway?) believes that the UK is the best place to invest over the next 25 years.

Most Guardian scripts tend to the 'remainer' view IMO. ATB

Hi Roger,

only mentioned article because the Guardian published this statement from your own government and they do not want to remain! Personnaly I believe investers are only looking for money for themselves not for the people in any country but please believe what you want to believe  ;D ;D ;D
Anyway I think some kind of agreement will be reached at the last minute.

Robert
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: info on February 28, 2019, 12:56:36 PM
Yes jivvy - classic - there's more - Theresa May Gains Two Weeks' Brexit Reprieve from British Lawmakers (https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/theresa-may-brexit-two-weeks/2019/02/27/id/904727/) or listen to the robot

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQiEqOJzsjg
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 01, 2019, 01:04:36 PM
it is most likely that the majority of labour voters chose remain.

https://www.facebook.com/ChangeBritain/videos/2345093225777899/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on March 01, 2019, 01:35:40 PM
Labour will win more votes than it loses by backing another referendum

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/27/labour-vote-referendum-jeremy-corbyn?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 01, 2019, 04:23:40 PM
Labour will win more votes than it loses by backing another referendum

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/27/labour-vote-referendum-jeremy-corbyn?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

That's a pretty poor article and doesn't deal with the claims and issues Mann makes. He is stating quite correctly, that most northern and midland labour constituencies voted to leave. Yes, Labour might have more members or supporters who claim they will now vote remain - but where are they? You are talking of splitting an already fragmented party even more. Kellner is simply stating that numerically, the remain vote within Labour are in the ascendency. According to the polls. That'll be London then. And how many of them were actually supporters or members when the vote was held?

The author also states that such mid-term polls are very fickle and even more so in these challenging times. All the polls, did after all, predict a leave win at the referendum.

It's also assuming that after this debacle is over, that Labour and the Tories survive unscathed which is very doubtful.

He is also ignoring the fact that it's pretty universally accepted that Corbyn went down the 2nd vote stage to delay the party splitting apart even more than it already is, which everyone knows will happen when Brexit is sorted in any case. Look what's happening now - Watson is becoming ever more assertive and now openly challenging Corbyn. He's bided his time well and is virtual signalling that Corbyn, as everyone knows, is the root of the racism problem within Labour.

Mate, you really need to accept, that if British democracy is going to survive, the vote has to be respected. All the subsequent turncoats said that at the time - all of them - Cameron, Major, Corbyn, Soubrey, Khan, Mandelson, Straw, Clegg and Ummuna - who even said to Dimblebey that the vote had to be respected live on the referendum broadcast before the outcome had even been confirmed and said it time and again since. All of those above and many more, are all filmed stating the referendum is a one-off and the vote is decisive.

So what's changed? The wrong side won, that's what.

We really are into a parliament v. the people situation and there will ony ever be one winner. The UK is very lucky that there is no real history of populist uprisings, as otherwise there would be hell to pay. But politically, the people will make their feelings known.

What's so funny is, that the people across the EU are rebelling against the very status quo that remainers want to be a part of. I mean, to show how out of sync we are, the Tories are actually to the left of Macrons party, who govern France (just). The EU will be a very different place after May and is shifting to the right and remainers could well find themselves the proverbial fish out of water. But I personally struggle with anyone wanting to be part of a group where the very core of it's existance, the Euro, has heaped so much misery and poverty on so many people and the shameful way the Irish, Portuguese, Spanish, Italians and in particular the Greeks, whose treatment was and remains a disgrace, were all made to pay the price needed to rescue French and German banks and their absurd lending policies, from crashing. But each to their own.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on March 01, 2019, 06:02:40 PM
I thought it was a good article and largely reinforced my points. You see another vote as anti-democratic but why is it undemocratic to ask the people to vote on May's hopeless deal i.e. is this what you wanted? If so then it will win.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 01, 2019, 09:26:19 PM
I thought it was a good article and largely reinforced my points. You see another vote as anti-democratic but why is it undemocratic to ask the people to vote on May's hopeless deal i.e. is this what you wanted? If so then it will win.

For the reasons I have just stated. Everyone said and I mean everyone. Including in that list I gave above. One vote. That was it and the decision would be respected and acted upon. Now they haven't got the vote they thought they were going to get, they want to change the vote. That is undemocratic, end of.

You need to read the article again. It doesn't reinforce your points at all. It doesn't address them. You seem to have an issue accepting that working class labour supporters voted for Brexit. That's fine, but it's wrong. They previously voted for UKIP as well and I'm willing to bet that when Farage's new party hit's the ground running, they will vote for him again. For there is one thing that cannot be disputed - and that is that there is currently no-one of any influence in Parliament even remotely interested in representing them.

Remember, in the 1920's - 80% of Labour MP's were working class. Now it's 8%. No-one cares about them or shafting them, as is happening, certainly not Corbyn. Jeez, my late parents would be turning in their grave seeing what has happened to the party they were lifelong supporters of, that was founded on the premise of representing the working men, which is now staffed and supported by wealthy Londoners who might as well be living on Mars.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 05, 2019, 04:16:56 AM
Undoubtedly the most important Brexit development is that Boris appears to have had a haircut, at last  8) 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6770253/I-no-idea-kick-particular-b-Boris-slams-lack-EU-transparency.html

and . . .

''The head of the German federation of industries has claimed the British are “lost” and has thrown doubt on Berlin’s backing for a short Brexit extension, claiming an “economy can live better with bad conditions than with uncertainty”. Dieter Kempf, the chairman of the Bundesverbandes der Deutschen Industrie, said the 100,000 companies he represents and their 8 million employees have prepared for a no-deal scenario in March, not in May.''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/04/brexit-dieter-kempf-no-deal-better-than-uncertainty-says-head-of-german-industry
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 05, 2019, 01:07:34 PM
It seems that European investors have more faith in the UK post-Brexit than most of the remain supporting MP's that dominate parliament. Yes, conditions are good in the UK and poor elsewhere, particularly the EU and USA, but these people are here for the long term.

I haven't looked but I doubt this was widely reported.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/03/europeans-double-uk-investment-since-brexit-vote/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 06, 2019, 08:01:05 PM
This morning - at Laem Sing with a Danish and a USA friend - they suddenly asked me - how do you think Brexit will go   :(   :-\   :-X

I answered - uuummmm  ;)

Later today - 'hot off the 'Press', it seems that 'things' are moving . .

From the DT now (I'd love to know more about the 4th in the list) . .

''Fresh backstop talks in Brussels end with no breakthrough
European Commission: No solution identified at this point
Downing Street: Talks with EU have been 'difficult'
Woody Johnson: Scare stories about US food created by EU
Former MI6 head says no deal Brexit is better than May's deal
Opinion: UK defeated EU - it should be demanding surrender terms
Opinion: PM must decide if she's serious about no-deal Brexit
Philip Johnston: The Prime Minister's Brexit gamble has backfired
''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/06/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-faces-commons-grilling-talks/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 06, 2019, 08:07:01 PM
I'd be happy with a no deal Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 06, 2019, 08:26:04 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47463893 (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47463893)

UK may slash trade tariffs under a no-deal Brexit

The UK government may cut trade tariffs on between 80% and 90% of goods in the event of a no-deal Brexit, reports say.

Some tariffs would be scrapped completely, including those on car parts, and some agricultural produce.

However, 10-20% of key products would continue to be protected by the current level of tariffs, including some textiles, cars, beef, lamb and dairy.

The government said it would make an announcement once a decision had been finalised.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 07, 2019, 07:21:13 AM
''I'd be happy with a no deal Brexit''.
Crikey Alfie - now we agree on something else ;)  Where will this end ?  ;)

Heard a strong assertion on BBC that Mrs May's deal WILL go down by 100 votes next Tuesday.           I bl**dy well hope so.

Alternative paths left are :-
1. No deal Brexit   ;D   ;D   ;D
2. Extension of Article 50 - that'd be OK and it would have to be limited to a few months with the European elections coming . . . however, Macron and others say extension is only possible IF something fundamental changes in the UK - such as a General Election, 2nd Referendum or a new Tory Leader  8)
3. 2nd Referendum - IMO this will only happen when ALL other alternatives are exhausted.
4. Norway Plus deal - as being discussed by Tory factions with Corbyn yesterday. As it would mean staying in the 'Customs Union' AND the 'Single Market', I don't see that getting through Parliament.
5. Remain  >:(   >:(   >:(   >:(

God only knows !

If it's 'no deal', this reported by Alfie, would be a strong first step in the UK rebirth, ''The UK government may cut trade tariffs on between 80% and 90% of goods in the event of a no-deal Brexit''. Brilliant.

Come on Jacob the Mogg ! Boris has had a haircut - anything could happen.


 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 07, 2019, 08:32:07 AM
There's no chance of a no deal whilst May is in charge and the idiots in Parliament have tied her hands. The majority of MP's are remainers and have no interest in democracy. Just wait for the huge number of resignations or MP's kicked out by there constituencies who are aghast at their MP's - that starts this month. The rest will happen before the next election.

May is an absolute disgrace and should be forced out. She is little more than a quisling. She said she wouldn't just run down the clock, so it was just left as her deal or no deal (she now has an escape clause on that with a delay). Otherwise, she hasn't changed tactics or come up with anything new and has run down the clock. She and Parliament have to start playing hard ball but they're incompetence has been exposed to the World and that isn't going to change now.

Even Carney is now saying no-deal won't be so bad after all and this morning, even German economists are saying Britain should introduce new low tariffs to put pressure on the EU - and you here similar from everywhere, in the UK and from elsewhere - do this, do that, but this incompetent bungling fool of a PM does nothing.

She doesn't want to leave, simple. After she quits Parliament, she won't need 24 hour protection to save her from terrorists - they'll be needed to stop Joe Public getting to her!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 07, 2019, 12:39:42 PM
Caller - ''There's no chance of a 'no deal' whilst May is in charge and the idiots in Parliament have tied her hands.''

I'm not sure - if May goes ahead with this vote and loses, who knows which way events might turn. Parliament has to vote and approve something else by March 29th OR it'll be 'no deal' by default.

The Brexiteers and the ERG are just TOO quiet atm and one wonders what might be going on. I guess we'll find out, before too long . . .

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 07, 2019, 12:43:48 PM
I think Theresa May is trying to get a deal but that she will not be too upset if it goes to a no deal exit.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 07, 2019, 01:47:55 PM
Roger and Alfie. I hope you are right and I am wrong.

That will certainly concentrate EU minds. If a no deal happened, Ireland will need a bail out almost immediately. Italy has already said that in the event of a no-deal, it will seek it's own agreement with the UK. I doubt they will be the only one's.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 09, 2019, 11:52:55 PM
Let's get it done, she says.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQwFdfXH49g
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 10, 2019, 10:43:57 AM
Thanks for that Alfie, next week should be very interesting.
I was pleasantly surprised by today's front page in the DT :-

''Support for a no-deal Brexit is growing in the face of the EU's refusal to help salvage Theresa May's deal, according to a new poll. A survey by ComRes found that 44 per cent of the public now believe the UK should leave without a deal if Brussels refuses to make any further concessions - a six point rise from January. Less than a third (30 per cent) disagreed.

It came as 74 senior Tory activists, including more than 50 association chairman, told Mrs May that Conservative voters "do not fear a no deal exit" and "just want Brexit delivered."
''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/09/support-no-deal-brexit-backed-public-poll-finds-growing-number/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 10, 2019, 11:10:43 AM
Worth pointing out that the survey is from a Brexit supporting group, albeit it's findings reflect the views of most people I know.

The Sunday Times is reporting that YouGov have polled over 25,000 voters in all 632 UK parliamentary constituencies and found that the majority in all but two (2!) constituencies want their MP's to reject Theresa May's deal, including in her own constituency.

Anyway, as the Times is subscription only and it's only a small report, here it is in full:

The majority of voters in nearly all the 632 parliamentary constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales want their MPs to reject Theresa May’s Brexit deal, according to the most in-depth research into public opinion on the issue.

The constituency-by-constituency analysis, based on YouGov polling of more than 25,000 voters shows that there are only two — Christchurch, in Dorset, and South Holland and the Deepings, in Lincolnshire — where more support the prime minister’s deal to withdraw from the EU than oppose it.

This suggests that if any vote in parliament precisely reflected the “will of the people” then even May would have to vote against her own negotiated agreement: voters in the prime minister’s Maidenhead constituency oppose it by 54% to 46%.

Not a single member of the cabinet represents a seat where voters want to see the deal passed, according to the research.

Gavin Williamson, the defence secretary, comes closest: voters in his South Staffordshire seat are split 50-50 on May’s agreement. The research also shows that if Labour is perceived as having enabled Brexit then the party could suffer catastrophic losses at the next election, with the Tories winning a 200-seat majority.

Peter Kellner, the former president of YouGov, said: “The fact that only two constituencies in the entire country want their MP to support her deal shows just how risky it would be for the prime minister to force this deal on the people now. But Jeremy Corbyn also faces a big and immediate challenge.

“If he is seen to facilitate an unpopular Brexit, he will alienate the large majority of Labour voters who want the UK to stay in the EU.”

In better news for the government before the second meaningful vote on its Brexit agreement on Tuesday, internal Tory polling shows 58% of voters think May’s deal is imperfect but are willing to accept it in order to see Brexit delivered. This compares with 24% who disagree.

Another survey, by ComRes, found that 44% of the public now believe the UK should leave without a deal if Brussels refuses to make any further concessions, while 30% disagreed.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 10, 2019, 03:59:45 PM
Caller - thanks very much for that. It'll be an interesting week  8)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on March 10, 2019, 05:15:04 PM
Lets hope sense prevails this week and Mays deal is soundly defeated followed by a resounding vote to reject a no deal Brexit. Then a Brexit extension to accommodate new possibilities, Norway plus, change of leader, general election, new referendum ?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 10, 2019, 06:03:55 PM
And wait another two years so we can keep arguing with the EU and still not come to an agreement? Pointless.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on March 10, 2019, 06:58:19 PM
or a no deal brexit to cause a massive hit to the economy, end of car manufacturing in Britain, break up of the UK and a further devaluation of the £. Stupid.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 10, 2019, 07:02:10 PM
or a no deal brexit to cause a massive hit to the economy, end of car manufacturing in Britain, break up of the UK and a further devaluation of the £. Stupid.

Blimey, even Mark Carney say's it won't be that bad!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on March 10, 2019, 07:25:32 PM
The governments own figures forecast a negative hit to the economy. Car manufacturers already cutting back. Scotland voted remain so will at best resent Brexit. The hard border in N. Ireland will be a big problem. Further devaluation of the £ is a certainty. Its all right for you lot, you dont have to live there.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 10, 2019, 07:58:34 PM
or a no deal brexit to cause a massive hit to the economy, end of car manufacturing in Britain, break up of the UK and a further devaluation of the £. Stupid.

The end of car maufacturing in Britain?

(http://teakdoor.com/images/smilies/smiley-laughing.gif)

And the break up of Britain?

That's some imagination you have.

The other two you mention may or may not happen but if it does, I predict it will only be temporary.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 11, 2019, 12:22:49 AM
The governments own figures forecast a negative hit to the economy. Car manufacturers already cutting back. Scotland voted remain so will at best resent Brexit. The hard border in N. Ireland will be a big problem. Further devaluation of the £ is a certainty. Its all right for you lot, you dont have to live there.

For sure, it won't initially all be sweetness and light. But Govt. figures aren't exactly the most reliable are they - not according to other economists who question their findings.

And let's be honest, the car industry is on it's knees globally and the EU deal means there is little point Japan manufacturing here any more. And not all Scots voted remain and Scotland isn't going anywhere - well it can't really can it, its where it is and only Parliament can make that decision and Scotland's Govt. isn't exactly renowned for saving the pennies. The hard border in NI won't happen and lot's of other scare stories will suddenly disappear as well.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: mango on March 12, 2019, 09:03:34 AM
when they sort out the european pensions.it might turn out good for the uk expatsl living with frozen pensions.canada just sent 550.000 pertitition to aapg calling to stop frozen uk pensions. lets hope it happens.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 12, 2019, 09:30:16 AM
when they sort out the european pensions.it might turn out good for the uk expatsl living with frozen pensions.canada just sent 550.000 pertitition to aapg calling to stop frozen uk pensions. lets hope it happens.

What is aapg? Is this a Brexit issue - genuine question as don't understand?

As for May's latest new deal. I'm waiting for the advice of Martin Howe QC before I agree with it or not, although I doubt anyone is worrying about what I think - lol!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 12, 2019, 11:31:49 AM
Theresa May talks about the legal changes to her deal.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpoKTH8-sx8
Title: Re: Brexit - the 'Lazarus' deal . .
Post by: Roger on March 12, 2019, 01:27:47 PM
Listening to Norman Smith, Asst. Political Editor of the BBC (Radio 4) 07.35 am 'Today'.

Four key events before the votes today :-

1. The Attorney General gives his opinion on the changes to Parliament - will he conclude that with these assurances, the UK will NOT be trapped in the 'Backstop'.
2. The reaction of the DUP.
3. The 'Star Chamber' of the Brexiteer's legal eagles reports mid p.m.
4. The ERG meet late p.m. - with 1.2.and 3. in mind  :-\

Just for once, I thought this BBC report neatly avoided bias !

It was pointed out that to pass the 'deal' now would require a massive turnaround in HoP.

Has May done enough ? I have no idea. But if it's passed, bear in mind that 'backstop' affairs will be conducted with a 'rumoured to be very different' composition in the European Parliament AND no Juncker to contend with . . .

If we don't take this deal I fear that we might be in danger of losing Brexit altogether  :(   I tentatively hope that the ERG will now agree to vote FOR the deal IF Mrs May resigns and triggers a leadership election . . .

We would then have the consolation of getting Brexit and that the next extensive stages of the negotiations about a future Trade Ageement etc, will be carried out by the UK, much more assertively  >:( ???
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 12, 2019, 04:24:20 PM
Lawyers that have reviewed the agreement seem to be unanimous that the rules of the backstop haven't changed. Another smokescreen by May.

Cox wil have to say the same, but will still urge MP's support it. So it seems it will be political decisions that get this vote passed, if it does pass and that probaby means something has to happen to May. Good, we can then start playing hard ball.

If not, I'd reject it and go for no deal.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Coolkorat on March 13, 2019, 03:48:02 PM
Mrs May has lost another vote: a turbulent few days ahead! Any predictions for today's vote?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 13, 2019, 04:13:52 PM
Caller / CK - sadly, I think that the resolution against 'No Deal' will be defeated very strongly, despite the Govt. releasing plans about Tariffs etc. today. But "No Deal' will remain in place in law as a default position on March 29th, atm.

Tomorrow there's a vote on extending Article 50 - maybe for 2 months. That HAS to be approved or March 29th's 'No Deal' default will remain in place - as it will for the end of the 'extended' period, whenever that is. Other resolutions are being tabled so who knows ?

I heard a Pundit say that Mrs May had said, 'no deal is better than a bad deal' more than 100 times in Parliament - after 2 massive defeats on the 'deal' I think Parliament has defined it as BAD   ::)

Heard Michael Heseltine talking today - words to the effect that May had lost control of Parliament in an unprecedented way, twice, and now she has lost control of the Tory Party, with today's 'free' vote   ???

My guess - 'No Deal' will get not more than 150 votes  :-\
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on March 13, 2019, 06:07:57 PM
Re: aapg
I think he means appg All Party Parliamentary Group
See
frozenbrithispensions.org     (http://frozenbritishpensions.org)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 13, 2019, 06:43:25 PM
Re: aapg
I think he means appg All Party Parliamentary Group
See
frozenbrithispensions.org     (http://frozenbritishpensions.org)

That sounds right - thanks.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 13, 2019, 06:46:58 PM
Yes, Roger, no-deal will lose, but that doesn't change the legal position.

I can't beleve May, she should just simply resign. Let someone else have a go, preferably someone who believes in Brexit. It appears she will vote against a no-deal.

If she was an animal, she woould have been put doen by now to put her out of her misery! There's still time!!!

As an aside, I am absolutely appalled at some cabinet members sniping against Cox, seemingly expecting him to have been disingenious with the truth about May's latest f**k-up.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on March 14, 2019, 11:38:59 AM
Just wondering what will happen now, any suggestions? As an outsider of UK politics I can only see few options now viz.:

1. Ask for an extension but for how long and what could be achieved? Second referendum, new elections?
2. A new deal, do not think EU wants rhis.
3. Leave withiout a deal? I thought voting yesterday was about NOT leaving with a hard Brexit.




Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 14, 2019, 02:00:54 PM
Hi Robert. Just MO but shenanigans again in the HoC tonight about asking the EU for an extension. HoC likely to favour a few months duration - EU likely to refuse that.

The EU reportedly favour a longer extension - maybe 1 or 2 years.

If an extension is agreed by March 29th OK - then a General Election, 2nd Referendum - anything can happen.

If no extension AND May's deal fails to pass before March 29th - then it's still 'No Deal'.

I think  :-\
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on March 14, 2019, 02:31:14 PM
Hi Roger,

personally and I repeat personally I do not think an extension of a few months would change anything. The EU will not give in and the existing deal will not be accepted by UK. Kind of a stalemate I presume. Leaves me thinking only 2 options left now:

1. UK leaves on March 29 and try to have trade agreements quickly
2. New elections, second referendum. Unpredictable outcome because if Brexit still supported (for me should be at least 2/3 of the voters) why could a deal be made then?

What do you think?

Robert
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on March 14, 2019, 04:39:32 PM
Surely this shambolic government is now finished. Only hope is a lengthy extension of article 50 and an election or new referendum. May's deal and no deal should now be forgotten. Only acceptable deal is with customs union, only acceptable no deal is no brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dam12641 on March 14, 2019, 07:12:37 PM
Tees,

I bet you were a member of the Socialist Workers Party weren't you? You exhibit all the purrblind stupidity of such a class warrior. Well, guess what, the world has progressed since the Jarrow March, you obviously have not. You people cling to the so called 'security' of an economic backwater. The EU/Eurozone is an economic joke. Look at the comparable figures for growth: EU vs ? well, virtually anywhere. I repeat, the EU/Eurozone is a joke. It is symptomatic of your obvious socialist mentality that you are always looking for a government handout. I know all about government handouts - I have paid for them throughout my life.

"Only acceptable deal is with customs union."
Continuing Customs Union is NOT what we voted for.

"Only acceptable no deal is no brexit."
'No Brexit'is NOT what we voted for.

You seem to think like a Stalinist in that once the vote has been taken, you can re-define what you think it really meant.

Regarding the recent theatrics in the HoC, the idea of voting to rule out a 'No Deal Brexit' is stupidity personified. How on earth is it possible to vote against something when the alternative is unknown?

The EU is protectionist, socialist and corrupt. Which part of this do you not understand? That's what the referendum voted on and trashed.

Yours contemptuously, Dale.

PS It was so obvious that I almost missed it: you lost the vote. Live with it.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 14, 2019, 07:24:03 PM
personally and I repeat personally I do not think an extension of a few months would change anything. The EU will not give in and the existing deal will not be accepted by UK. Kind of a stalemate I presume. Leaves me thinking only 2 options left now:

1. UK leaves on March 29 and try to have trade agreements quickly
2. New elections, second referendum. Unpredictable outcome because if Brexit still supported (for me should be at least 2/3 of the voters) why could a deal be made then?

What do you think?

Robert

Hi Robert,
Legally, the default is for the UK to leave the EU on 29 March 2019, either with or without a deal. I'm not sure there's any point of an extension to article 50. The EU have said that the deal we've been offered is the only one we're going to get, take it or leave it. I reckon the best they'll do it give the backstop issue a bit more of a legal tweak so the current deal gets through parliament.

* New elections will not help the Brexit situation, it wil just complicate it further.
* A no Brexit is out of the question. It will cause considerably more chaos and disruption than we have seen recently. I think it would change politics in a very negative way and could lead to the total collapse of the 3 main parties we have now.
* What would be the point of a new referendum? To ask what? We haven't dealt fully with the result of last referendum yet. Let's get that done first.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 14, 2019, 08:57:18 PM
A few things. Really just to enforce what Dan and Alfie have said.

Halting Brexit will change politics forever, that's it's only blessing. What Tees and his ilk don't understand is this. We have had 2.5 years of bitching, whingeing and lying by politicians - the hegemony I have talked of before - basically to stop Brexit. Look at Hammond last night, he's a national disgrace. In addition we have the likes of Tees and others not accepting the democratic vote and doing whatever they can to overturn and challenge it.

So if they succeed, what do they think will happen? That it will all be over? That all those in favour of Brexit, will just say, fair enough and get on with their lives? Nope, we'll have years and years and years of this carrying on and the trust in politics and politicians will be at an all time low. You'll see the rise of new extreme parties and a more divided Country than ever before. It will never go away and ultimately it will still happen in any case.

Labour is broken, already split irrevocably. Brexit is papering the cracks. Everyone knows this. Hence Watson launche his new party within a party last week attended by a 3rd of Labour MP's. The cowards will join later. Corbyn is a dead man walking already, even McDonnell concedes that and it's likely the party will split in two. Same fate for the Tories. Most members are not renewing their fees in protest at the Governments behaviour ]. Deselection meetings are being planned all over. Grieve at the end of this month. It cannot survive this as it stands. Unless Brexit happens.

So, some are calling for a new election. I'm sorry, but why would anyone bother voting? Everyone has been lied to and we have a group of politicians who apart from being gutless shits, don't respect, erm, a democratic vote. So what's the point, with the current lot in place? Who can trust anything they say? it will be more divisive than ever.

As for a new vote, Labour already understand a new vote will solve nothing. It will just continue the pain.

Depending on the speaker, who should be sacked anyway, I suspect May's deal, if put forward again, will pass. After all, what has happened is hardly unexpected. The ERG wil support it but the DUP won't. Enough Labour MP's will to get us out of this mess.

May must then immediately resign, having sacked half her cabinet before she does. Then a brexiteer and new cabinet can take things forward.

Theresa May and her remainer advisors and possibly the whole Tory party will never be forgiven for trashing our democracy. Labour don't come out of this exactly shining of Roses either. This bunch of politicians have laid bare their contempt for the Country and have proved themselves as being unfit to govern. I suspect for many of them, their careers are pretty much over. They just don't realise that yet.   

I just hope another Jo Cox doesn't happen.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 14, 2019, 10:09:41 PM
Labour don't come out of this exactly shining of Roses either. This bunch of politicians have laid bare their contempt for the Country and have proved themselves as being unfit to govern. I suspect for many of them, their careers are pretty much over. They just don't realise that yet.

I reckon Jess Phillips might be looking for another job soon (or a new constituency).

Her constituency (Birmingham Yardley) voted 69% Leave, 40% remain (http://democraticdashboard.com/constituency/birmingham-yardley).
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYee7M1CYTA

And an amusing quote from her:

Jess is asked whether she will leave the Labour Party, as I and others have done. She responded: “I feel like I can’t leave the Labour Party without rolling the dice one more time. I owe it that. But it doesn’t own me. It’s nothing more than a logo if it doesn’t stand for something that I actually care about – it’s just a f***ing rose.”
source (https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jess-phillips-times-interview-labour-loyalty-independent-group-a8817401.html)


Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on March 15, 2019, 05:23:09 AM
I agree that UK voted for Brexit but why has it not been possible to have a deal to be accepted by both UK and EU after 2 years of negotiations? That is what I do not understand. Extension: what can be achieved in 3 months? Do they really think another deal possible after 3 months extension? The UK wants out of EU so let it happen on March 29.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on March 15, 2019, 06:31:07 AM
Could not modify my previous reply but would like to add the following if I may.

All countries would be eager to have trade agreement in order to minimize the loss of income as much as possible.

The UK has one House of Commons and one House of Lords but the EU consists of 27 countries where those politicians all had to vote for the deal. Nobody gets everything in a deal I think. In my home country The Netherlands not one party has ever had the majority. Parties had to work together to form a government (at least 76 of the 150 seats). Compromises has been accepted through all these years meaning you could vote for a particular reason for a certain party to find out that reason has been dropped in the negotiations. The world is not black and white as I have found out during my travel all around the world.

Nobody knows the future.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 15, 2019, 12:17:59 PM
I agree that UK voted for Brexit but why has it not been possible to have a deal to be accepted by both UK and EU after 2 years of negotiations? That is what I do not understand. Extension: what can be achieved in 3 months? Do they really think another deal possible after 3 months extension? The UK wants out of EU so let it happen on March 29.

Far too much common sense here Robert. You'd never make a politician!  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on March 15, 2019, 12:32:13 PM
I agree that UK voted for Brexit but why has it not been possible to have a deal to be accepted by both UK and EU after 2 years of negotiations? That is what I do not understand. Extension: what can be achieved in 3 months? Do they really think another deal possible after 3 months extension? The UK wants out of EU so let it happen on March 29.

Far too much common sense here Robert. You'd never make a politician!  ;D

For sure I never be a politician because I always try to find solutions to solve a problem  ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on March 15, 2019, 01:34:04 PM
Extract from The Guardian:

So Brexit will be delayed?

Yes – on the assumption the EU member states unanimously agree. If they do not – which seems unlikely – the UK still leaves on 29 March, but without a deal. The government motion decrees that the government will seek agreement with the EU for an extension to article 50 beyond 29 March.

It says that if a Brexit plan is agreed by 20 March – it is widely assumed May will have a third try at squeezing her deal through the House of Commons early next week – then there will be a brief extension, until 30 June, allowing legislation to pass. If not, it will be for longer.


Or will the political game be something like this? UK politicians try to influence countries like Hungary, Italy and others to vote no for the extension. Beware any country has veto rights. The UK politicians can then blame EU for not cooperating thus saving their own skin.

I just read latest book of Brad Thor so in conspiracy mode, haha

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on March 15, 2019, 02:47:23 PM
I liked this on twitter from Armando Iannucci:
Yesterday the Brexit Secretary voted against the motion he’d just spoken in favour of. He took over from a Brexit Secretary who resigned in protest against the Brexit deal he’d just negotiated. This is Political Psychosis.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 15, 2019, 07:20:07 PM
I liked this on twitter from Armando Iannucci:
Yesterday the Brexit Secretary voted against the motion he’d just spoken in favour of. He took over from a Brexit Secretary who resigned in protest against the Brexit deal he’d just negotiated. This is Political Psychosis.

Well I know nothing about Barclay(sp?) apart from the fact he's been little more than a poodle. But Iannucci is wrong about Raab. But it makes a nice line.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 16, 2019, 12:08:50 PM
Robert - thanks for your posts  ;)  Spot on M8 !  ''Beware any country has veto rights''. Yes and for us Brexiteers, that would be great, a 'No Deal' and Hungary to blame LOL. But I fear not.

My guess is that the EU will pursue their masterly crushing of Mrs May and the UK Brexit by an extension of Article 50 of at least one year - however, after another year of 'Project Fear' from the UK Establishment, Industry and Remainers, what might we be left with in the end ?

Teess - respect for your posts even in disagreement - but IMO you are right about this - such gyrations have never been seen in Parliament before  :o   ::)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 16, 2019, 12:15:00 PM
Alfie thanks for that Jess Phillips clip - quite a Gal !
She says what she thinks and says it clearly  8)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 17, 2019, 03:16:16 PM
Now we face Theresa May's 3rd attempt to get her 'deal' through. . . .

IMO this is the height of traitorous manipulation - in fear of losing 'Brexit', dissenting M.P.s are asked again to endorse an exit, from which the next stage will be the 'negotiation' of a new Trade Agreement with the EU  ::)

Recent experience of the friendless and ruthless style of these EU ogres, leads me to expect more of the same with the threat of a neverending backstop in place. We will not get a reasonable Trade Deal from the EU if they have this continuing control.

The EU has played a masterly game - time for 'NO DEAL' please   >:(   >:(



 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on March 17, 2019, 03:54:18 PM
...but parliament has already voted against a no deal Brexit. Surely it would be a blow to democracy to go that route now.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 17, 2019, 04:27:56 PM
Yes but Parliament's vote on 'No Deal' was an Amendment in defiance of the democratic will of the people  ;)  that being the 2016 Referendum  ;)           

If the EU or any of the 27 sovereign Nation's, should refuse an extension to Article 50, then it is already in UK law, that Membership of the EU will end anyway !

Interesting times . . .

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on March 17, 2019, 05:15:38 PM
 ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 17, 2019, 08:39:39 PM
The Tory MP Nick Boles resigned the other day from his constituency Tory party, at the moment he doesn't have the Tory whip. He was a remainer but 61% of his constituency party voted leave, and although he supported May's deal, he was a main player in vetoing a no-deal. He resigned before being pushed out. Not resigning as an MP, although he has been asked to stand down. It means his career as a Tory MP is effectively at an end.

Dominic Grieve faces a vote of no confidence on 27th March. If he loses that, he will probably quit the local party as well, rather than wait to be de-selected.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 18, 2019, 11:17:41 AM
One of the biggest concerns the EU had about Brexit was ensuring solidarity between EU states during the negotiating process, especially in the event of a no-deal, which both Italy and Poland warned might be a step too far for them. But luckily for the EU, the traitors in Parliament put to bed all their fears over that.

But the tensions within the EU are still there. Italy can't escape austerity whilst being in the Euro and the rules of the Euro won't change anytime soon, with Macrons plans already on the scrap-heap. Italy needs investment and no-one is playing. 

So they have now defied the EU (and G7) in embracing and signing up to China's new expansionist plans.

Greece, who sold a port to China (as you do), is blocking formal EU criticism of China. Who can really blame these Countries for rebelling when they have been shat upon for years by the EU? I often wonder if remainers understand the reality and future direction of the EU? I can't believe so.

(extract)

Alarm bells are ringing over Beijing’s ‘Made in China 2025’ plan to dominate ten strategic sectors by means of subsidy and cheap state credit. Germany’s Mercator Institute describes it as a predatory system, akin to a war-time structure. Agents of China’s Strategic Support Force are lodged inside companies.

Brussels warns that Europe must close ranks or let China pick off states one by one.  Greece has already become a doormat, letting the Chinese shipping group COSCO acquire the port of Piraeus as the “dragon head” of Xi Jinping’s entry into Europe.

Athens has since obligingly blocked EU condemnations of Chinese human rights abuses and incursions in the South China Sea. It has dragged its feet on tougher EU screening measures for Chinese investments.

The defection of Italy is more serious for EU strategic unity. The country still has the second biggest manufacturing hub in Europe.

In a sense the chickens are coming back to roost for Europe’s policy elite. Austerity overkill imposed on southern Europe during the eurozone debt crisis led to a collapse in public investment and an economic depression. The resulting surge of bad debts in the Italian banking system caused a credit crunch and a vicious circle.

The rigid  pro-cyclical rules of the Stability Pact were partly to blame, but real power was held by hardline Ordoliberals in the German finance ministry using the European Central Bank as their enforcer.

The South endured this contractionary squeeze on the implicit promise of a quid pro quo later. The recompense never came. Northern Europe has continued to block fiscal union, joint debt issuance, and pan-EMU bank deposit insurance.

The Juncker Plan for investment is too small to rebuild crumbling infrastructure or to lift the Club Med region out of the structural trap. The victims are taking matters into their own hands.

Five Star leaders think Beijing can fund their reflation plans, turn Palermo into a new Rotterdam with a $5bn port project, and take the ailing Alitalia off their hands.

They have found their guru in Michele Geraci, state undersecretary for economic development, a former City banker who later taught for ten years at universities in Shanghai and Hangzhou. He has drunk deep from the cup of Xi Jinping’s Leninist ideology.

His original mandate was to close the trade gap with China. He concluded that Italy was unlikely to gain China’s attention short of a dramatic demarche. Beijing jumped with alacrity when he broached the Silk Road. Lega sources say the issue has snowballed out of control.

Mr Geraci has established a China Task Force and has been commuting back and forth to Beijing, circumventing the normal controls of the Italian foreign ministry and the security apparatus.

Five Star leaders think Beijing can fund their reflation plans, turn Palermo into a new Rotterdam with a $5bn port project, and take the ailing Alitalia off their hands.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/17/italy-drawn-promise-chinas-silk-road-defiance-brussels/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on March 18, 2019, 11:26:53 AM
And China is only investing in the EU? The Chinese have a 100 year plan to conquer the whole world. Not through war but through economics  ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 18, 2019, 01:20:40 PM
luckily for the EU, the traitors in Parliament put to bed all their fears over that.

Talking of traitors ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/10/tony-blair-secretly-advising-emmanuel-macron-brexit-former-pm (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/10/tony-blair-secretly-advising-emmanuel-macron-brexit-former-pm)

Tony Blair has been accused of “unacceptable” behaviour after it emerged he has been briefing Emmanuel Macron on how to force Britain to stay in the EU.

The former Labour prime minister believes that if the EU stands its ground over the Brexit deal, Parliament will cave in and accept a customs union - which would keep Britain yoked to Brussels - or a second referendum that could cancel Brexit altogether.

Sources in Paris confirmed to The Telegraph that Mr Blair had been speaking to the French President about Brexit.

He is reported to have told Mr Macron to “hold firm” and wait for events to play out in London that end in Britain staying in the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 18, 2019, 01:41:26 PM
And China is only investing in the EU? The Chinese have a 100 year plan to conquer the whole world. Not through war but through economics  ;D ;D ;D ;D

I don't know about a 100 year plan, but they have published their latest expansionist plans, which does include Greece and Italy and onward into the EU - Rotterdam features.

But the point is that such agreed treaties are against formal EU collective policy which has finally woken up to the threat of China. They have been too busy fighting the British!  ;D

But why should Italy and Greece take notice of such policy when the EU are making them poor and others flaunt such agreements as it suits them (Germany's gas pipe)?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 18, 2019, 01:44:44 PM
Sources in Paris confirmed to The Telegraph that Mr Blair had been speaking to the French President about Brexit.

He is reported to have told Mr Macron to “hold firm” and wait for events to play out in London that end in Britain staying in the EU.

I think that Blair should count himself fortunate as he already has 24 hour protection. Anger is rising about the 'politicians' handling of Brexit and God forbid, another Jo Cox incident happening.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on March 18, 2019, 04:13:03 PM
And China is only investing in the EU? The Chinese have a 100 year plan to conquer the whole world. Not through war but through economics  ;D ;D ;D ;D

I don't know about a 100 year plan, but they have published their latest expansionist plans, which does include Greece and Italy and onward into the EU - Rotterdam features.

But the point is that such agreed treaties are against formal EU collective policy which has finally woken up to the threat of China. They have been too busy fighting the British!  ;D

But why should Italy and Greece take notice of such policy when the EU are making them poor and others flaunt such agreements as it suits them (Germany's gas pipe)?

The 100 year quote comes from my own mind because I think the Chinese do not think only in 5 or 10 or 20 year plans. They do not want to accomplish it only for themselves but also for their children and grandchildren. Very different way of thinking compared to the west IMHO.
Title: Re: Brexit - no 3rd vote on May's 'deal'
Post by: Roger on March 19, 2019, 11:15:26 AM
IMO John Bercow is quite wrong - the context in which the vote takes place IS now quite different as MP's have passed 'No Deal' and Extend Article 50' amendments. Surely the Govt will find a way to wriggle around this.

''John Bercow has plunged Britain into a “major constitutional crisis” after banning Theresa May from holding a third vote on her Brexit deal, the Solicitor General has said. The Speaker - a Remain voter who has faced repeated accusations of anti-Brexit bias - invoked a convention last used 99 years ago to stop the vote taking place.

His unexpected announcement was greeted with fury in the Commons, as ministers accused him of being “interventionalist” and failing to “respect” MPs. With just 10 days to go until Brexit day, Mrs May is weighing her options to get round the Speaker's ruling
.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/#source=refresh
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 19, 2019, 12:50:04 PM
Bercow is a remainer and has narcissistic tendencies - that's the problem here, his vanity and sense of self-importance.

Zac Goldsmith said the other day that an election is an obvious way forward, but questioned whether there would be any trust in anyone's manifesto!

I fear civil disorder is on the way. There's a hell of a lot of anger out there. Even in the Times comments!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 20, 2019, 04:32:27 PM
Caller I agree with you about Bercow - a scoundrel and a bully IMO.
Who knows where this is going ? May's deal or even, by default, 'No Deal' ?
I am VERY much against "May's deal' as we know well, the EU will be ruthless in negotiating a new trade deal, the 'Backstop' will come in and we'll be trapped forever  ::)

From the DT :-

    ''Theresa May 'will not seek long delay' to Brexit extension
    PM to write to Donald Tusk today to ask for Article 50 extension
    'The Last days of Rome': How Cabinet divisions were laid bare
    Steve Baker: We must stand firm and reject the Brexit deal
    Jean-Claude Juncker: EU's patience is 'wearing thin'

Theresa May will today request a short extension of Article 50, a Downing Street source has said, warning that voters are "fed up with Parliament's failure to take a decision".

The Prime Minister will later publish a letter, to be sent to Donald Tusk, the European Council president, which will ask Brussels to agree to a delay
''.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 20, 2019, 07:11:54 PM
This woman has no shame. She is the problem There is nothing the EU can threaten us with. For Gods sake woman, tell Tusk we are leaving on the 29th - then see the EU sing.



Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 21, 2019, 05:24:28 AM
''This woman has no shame'' as Caller noted.

If May's deal goes through in the end, the EU will be ruthless in negotiating any new trade deal with the UK, the 'Backstop' will come in and the UK will be trapped forever at disadvantages on every front . . .

Some Brexit Gems from a scan this morning :-

''Should MPs vote again on Theresa May’s Brexit deal, it would be anything but delivering on the Brexit vote from two years ago. How would I know? Because I work within the heart of government. As a civil servant I can tell you large parts of the Whitehall machine are systematically working against leaving the EU. I have met thousands of civil servants in the past few years: I can only recall five who voted for Brexit.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/18/believe-civil-service-trying-sink-brexit-have-seen-inside/

''Ever louder voices in Germany are denouncing the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement as a fundamental failure of European statecraft that can lead only to a diplomatic debacle and festering animosity. If the EU’s ultimatum policy causes a geostrategic rupture with a pillar of the European defence, security, and financial system - sooner or later, as it surely must under the existing terms - the recriminations in Berlin will be ugly.

“Europe is well on the way to inflicting huge damage on itself for decades by the way it has handled the failed Brexit talks,” said Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for Economic Research
''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/20/german-alarm-grows-eus-dangerous-ultimatum-terms-britain/

''In a powerful speech, the former attorney-general condemned the prime minister for blaming the Commons for the crisis while refusing to accept any responsibility herself. “I have never felt more ashamed to be a member of the Conservative Party or to be asked to lend her support,” Mr Grieve told MPs. “She spent most of her time castigating the house for its misconduct. At no stage did she pause to consider whether it is, in fact, the way she is leading this government that might be contributing to the situation.”

The pro-EU Tory said he had long considered Ms May to be “a friend”, but added: “I have to say I could have wept – wept to see her reduced to these straits. “And wept to see the extent to which she was now simply zig-zagging all over the place, instead of standing up for what the national interest must be
.” ''

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-dominic-grieve-theresa-may-tory-mp-deal-vote-conservative-party-a8832516.html

 ::)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on March 21, 2019, 12:52:28 PM
The EU has said it will only agree to a short delay to Brexit is MPs approve the current withdrawal agreement next week.

Donald Tusk has said that additional legal assurances the EU gavve to Mrs May last week could be formalised to help get the backing of MPs.

BBC (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47636011)


So the T. May/EU deal could still be on for a third vote.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 21, 2019, 03:11:24 PM
Yes Alfie, it looks like a short delay until June 30th at the latest, when the newly elected EU Parliament will sit for the first time. May's deal may well get a 3rd vote, particularly if the DUP concur.

Some of the arrogant statements coming from Europe defy belief - I heard the UK billed as a 'failing state'. IMO it's the EU that is the failing state - one of the good reasons to GET OUT.

Also at least 5 European Friends of mine have commented now to the effect that the UK thinks it still has the Empire and so on. What rubbish - I think it very strange that Folks would think in that way - as if we need 'cutting down to size'. I wonder what the origins of such resentful nonsense might be  ::)

Anyway one might argue that half of the EU would probably like to be OUT too  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on March 21, 2019, 03:57:30 PM
Yes Alfie, it looks like a short delay until June 30th at the latest, when the newly elected EU Parliament will sit for the first time. May's deal may well get a 3rd vote, particularly if the DUP concur.

Some of the arrogant statements coming from Europe defy belief - I heard the UK billed as a 'failing state'. IMO it's the EU that is the failing state - one of the good reasons to GET OUT.

Also at least 5 European Friends of mine have commented now to the effect that the UK thinks it still has the Empire and so on. What rubbish - I think it very strange that Folks would think in that way - as if we need 'cutting down to size'. I wonder what the origins of such resentful nonsense might be  ::)

Anyway one might argue that half of the EU would probably like to be OUT too  ;)

Hi Roger,

did you read this article in The Guardian? https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/20/pathetic-incoherent-chaotic-europes-verdict-on-brexit-shambles (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/20/pathetic-incoherent-chaotic-europes-verdict-on-brexit-shambles)

Seems more people then only friends are thinking that UK is not doing so well if I may say it softly? When article 50 was activated by UK there was enoogh time for negotiations so why leave it to last minute? You can only assume other countries would like to get out, first it should be clear what the consequentes would be. If UK sets a good example then maybe other countries could follow but referendum has been abolished in The Netherlands so think will not happen in my country. After all we are usually called the Chinese of Europe as we like to trade  ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on March 21, 2019, 05:59:31 PM
UK petition to stop Brexit, now signed by nearly 800,000 people
     

Click this link to sign the petition "Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU."

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/petition-revoke-article-50-hits-600000-2000-signatures-added-per-minute-website-crashes-101837391.html
   
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dam12641 on March 21, 2019, 06:20:03 PM
Or don't.

800,000. That's really impressive.
Only another 16.5 million more are required.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on March 21, 2019, 06:56:29 PM
Or don't.

800,000. That's really impressive.
Only another 16.5 million more are required.
They, and many more, would probably be obtained in a referendum now that the full implications of the airy fairy promises from Farage and Johnston etc have been exposed as pie in the sky
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 21, 2019, 07:56:30 PM
There will be no 2nd referendum, neither party wants it and little support in the polls. Article 50 will not be revoked. People who don't like the referendum decision should really show more grace and adherence to democratic values.

Today the Governor of the BOE confirmed that the UK economy is strengthening, compared to the EU's which is going down the pan, with 80% of UK companies now fully prepared for a no-deal Brexit, compared to next to nothing in the EU.

Walk away Theresa, walk away, but make sure you have your back covered. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 21, 2019, 08:00:02 PM
They, and many more, would probably be obtained in a referendum now that the full implications of the airy fairy promises from Farage and Johnston etc have been exposed as pie in the sky

What are you talking about????


Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 22, 2019, 05:39:52 AM
Robert - re. your Reply 645, thanks and yes I saw the article but do remember there's enough plausible people around Europe to quote on all points of view.

Re. this - ''When article 50 was activated by UK there was enough time for negotiations so why leave it to last minute?'' Fair comment - I think the EU negotiators have been utterly ruthless and have outplayed Mrs May from the start e.g. imagine starting the negotiations by conceding the GBP39 billion payment  :o  Clever stuff   :-[

IMO if the UK had negotiated more strongly, the EU would have agreed nothing at all such is their sublime and self satisfied ruthless bigotry. But you make a good point - it would certainly be interesting if we could wind the clock back and let David Davis loose.
As we are, the EU have played a brilliant game that led the negotiations to this point as pre-conceived, where the UK gets nothing worthwhile and it's all the UK's fault  ::)

You are right that many other countries do not thrive in the EU and would like to get out of the EU - it's for that reason that the EU always intended to punish the UK as an example. Well done the Ayatollah's - they did the job  >:(
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 22, 2019, 01:00:45 PM
Don't panic or be conned into a panic - let's go  :)

''The vast majority of British businesses believe they are ready for a ‘no deal, no transition’ Brexit, according to the Bank of England, taking steps to handle a disorderly departure from the EU that could happen next Friday. Eight in 10 companies have taken action, for instance by building up stocks of materials in case of disruption to imports.

This is up from 50pc of businesses who had taken preparations in January, indicating companies are ramping up their plans as Brexit day draws closer with no agreement in Westminster on a deal
.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/21/eight-10-businesses-have-prepared-no-deal-brexit-bank-says/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on March 22, 2019, 05:25:33 PM
Theresa the fixer
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on March 22, 2019, 05:53:25 PM
 ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on March 23, 2019, 09:08:23 PM
Petition has now been signed by 4.3m people in less than a week. It seems to make sense to remove the time constraints even from a Brexit point of view. Revoke article 50, ditch May, work out how to leave, then re-invoke. Could all be done before next eldction
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 24, 2019, 08:05:49 AM
Ditch May will happen.

The petition is meaningless, especially as it's open to Brit's everywhere.

But who knows what will happen?

The Germans are now getting seriously worried. There economy is panning (see latest figures) and with that so is the EU's. Much of their fall is attributed to Brexit and we haven't left yet. German industrialists are really pushing on a compromise now.


 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 25, 2019, 01:46:14 PM
The Sun and The Daily Telegraph have prominent calls for Mrs May to resign without further delay. Let's hope she takes the advice. With a stand-in PM and the backing of the DUP, maybe her "Deal' will get another vote  ::)

NO DEAL best for me  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 27, 2019, 05:51:31 AM
Is it ''Bye Bye Theresa'' and ''Hello'' May's Brexit ?  :-\

''Theresa May lacks the 'basic human skills' needed to be an effective political leader today, a senior Eurocrat jibed today. Belgian MEP Philippe Lamberts, a member of the European Parliament's Brexit steering committee, said the Prime Minister had been unable to establish 'bonds of trust' with other European leaders.''

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6852689/Theresa-devoid-basic-human-skills-senior-MEP-claims.html

''Theresa May could be prepared to make clear that she will quit No10 within weeks if Tory MPs agree to back her Brexit deal, ministers believe. Senior Eurosceptic Conservatives are demanding that she names a date for her departure when she appears before the 1922 Committee of backbenchers at 5pm today.''

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6853815/Theresa-announce-TOMORROW-shell-quit-weeks-Tory-MPs-agree-Brexit-deal.html

As arch Brexiteers, (like some on K-F), begin to fear that Brexit will be lost, minds begin to change . . .

Jacob Rees-Mogg - ''I apologise for changing my mind. Theresa May’s deal is a bad one, it does not deliver on the promises made in the Tory Party manifesto and its negotiation was a failure of statesmanship. A £39 billion bill for nothing, a minimum of 21 months of vassalage, the continued involvement of the European Court and, worst of all, a backstop with no end date. Yet, I am now willing to support it if the Democratic Unionist Party does, and by doing so will be accused of infirmity of purpose by some and treachery by others. I have come to this view because the numbers in Parliament make it clear that all the other potential outcomes are worse and an awkward reality needs to be faced. Mrs May ought to have concluded a better agreement but behind the backs of two secretaries of state, David Davis and Dominic Raab, she did not.''

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6853609/JACOB-REES-MOGG-Im-ready-Theresa-Mays-deal.html

And Boris Johnson - '' 'If we vote it down again there is an appreciable and growing sense that we will not leave at all. That is the risk,' journalists at the event quoted him as saying. He (BJ) was reportedly shouted down by members of the crowd who said 'no Boris' as the Prime Minister fights to secure backing for her Brexit deal before the end of the week.''

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6851149/Mogg-leads-new-Brexiteer-climbdown-late-save-Brexit.html

I'm bored and infuriated by the Brexit process. But now it is essential that May goes and someone else drives the next stages - the UK has to go with this now. And make sure one way or another, that we get OUT of that backstop one day.

This is all DM but, at least, if anyone looks at this post, they won't have to suffer those accursed adverts  >:( 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 27, 2019, 10:03:58 AM
It will be interesting to see if having taken control, the remain members of Parliament can actually do a better job the Govt. The evidence isn't good and in typical fashion, it's being done 'committee style'.

What's needed is a leader with courage and vision. All sadly lacking.

The great British Brexit Betrayal continues. My friends are spitting blood!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 27, 2019, 07:42:32 PM
I hear JC Junker is soon to be giving up driving completely  ;)

''Every new car built after May 2022 will be fitted with anti-speeding devices to alert drivers when they break legal limits, as well as in-built breathalysers to cut out engines when drink drivers get behind the wheel. New vehicles will need to have an Intelligent Speed Assistance (ISA) limiter as standard after the European Parliament agreed on new rules in Strasbourg on Tuesday. The alert system will ensure drivers observe speed limits through GPS and road sign recognition cameras.

EU governments and MEPs agreed on 30 new safety standards for cars, vans and trucks. The bill is set to be rubber stamped in a forthcoming vote of the European Parliament. "The Commission wanted to make it compulsory that the car would automatically slow down to observe speed limits but we have secured a compromise where the system merely has to alert the driver that he or she is speeding," said Daniel Dalton, the Tory MEP for the West Midlands. It is true that cars built in Britain will have to carry these safety systems and standards if they are to be exported to the EU," Mr Dalton said.
''

And now, to the Glory of the Ayatollahs of the EU, is this to come  ::)
If so, how is it different from saying, ''all air journeys must be on a B737 MAX''.

Now I expect to drive old cars forever. I hate this idea.
What if I'm overtaking and the nose dips  ;)   ;)

A truly trashy idea IMO. The sort of issue like a straight banana, that makes me a Brexiteer. I'm alive - get me out of here  :o

Caller - I guess your Friends love this idea . . . . .
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on March 28, 2019, 05:56:46 AM
Hi Roger,

I was up early this morning and looked at The Guardian. Underneath extract from The Guardian but I really wonder what will happen now. Any ideas?

Robert

ps 1 I also do not like all these mandatory additions to new cars as described by you. Lane assist, alcohol locks: far too much control and being an adult I know what I can do or should not do.

ps 2 Just find this also on The Guardian:

3h ago 21:20
May wins vote on order delaying Brexit by majority of 336

MPs have backed the statutory instrument changing Brexit date in the EU Withdrawal Act by 441 votes to 105 - a majority of 336.


Results of indicative votes on Brexit alternatives


Here are the results of the indicative votes on the Brexit alternatives.

I have taken the summary of what each amendment does from the Press Association summary featured earlier.

    MPs vote against all eight options considered under the indicative votes process. This is what Oliver Letwin, the MP who championed this process, said he expected to happen in his Today interview this morning.

B - John Baron’s - No deal


Backed by Conservative MPs John Baron, David Amess, Martin Vickers and Stephen Metcalfe, the motion proposes leaving the European Union without a deal on April 12.

For: 160

Against: 400

D - Nick Boles’s - common market 2.0


Tabled by Conservatives Nick Boles, Robert Halfon and Andrew Percy and Labour’s Stephen Kinnock, Lucy Powell and Diana Johnson. The motion proposes UK membership of the European free trade association and European Economic Area. It allows continued participation in the single market and a “comprehensive customs arrangement” with the EU after Brexit, which would remain in place until the agreement of a wider trade deal which guarantees frictionless movement of goods and an open border in Ireland.

For: 188

Against: 283

H - George Eustice’s - Efta and EEA


A motion tabled by Conservative MP George Eustice – who quit as agriculture minister this month to fight for Brexit – proposes remaining within the EEA and rejoining Efta, but remaining outside a customs union with the EU. The motion was also signed by Conservative MPs including former minister Nicky Morgan and head of the Brexit Delivery Group Simon Hart.

For: 65

Against: 377

J - Ken Clarke’s - Customs union


Requires a commitment to negotiate a “permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union with the EU” in any Brexit deal. Tabled by veteran Conservative Europhile Ken Clarke, backed by Labour’s Yvette Cooper, Helen Goodman and chair of the Commons Brexit committee Hilary Benn and Tory former ministers Sir Oliver Letwin and Sarah Newton.

For: 264

Against: 272

K - Labour’s - Customs union and alignment with single market


Labour has tabled a motion proposing its plan for a close economic relationship with the EU. The plan includes a comprehensive customs union with a UK say on future trade deals; close alignment with the single market; matching new EU rights and protections; participation in EU agencies and funding programmes; and agreement on future security arrangements, including access to the European arrest warrant

For: 237

Against: 307

L - Joanna Cherry’s - Revocation to avoid no deal


Under this plan, if the government has not passed its withdrawal agreement, it would have to stage a vote on a no-deal Brexit two sitting days before the scheduled date of departure. If MPs refuse to authorise no-deal, the prime minister would be required to halt Brexit by revoking article 50. The motion, tabled by the SNP’s Joanna Cherry, has been signed by 33 MPs including the Conservative former attorney general Dominic Grieve, the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable, Labour’s Ben Bradshaw and all 11 members of the Independent Group.

For: 184

Against: 293

M - Dame Margaret Beckett’s - Confirmatory public vote


Drawn up by Labour MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson and tabled by former foreign secretary Dame Margaret Beckett with the backing of scores of MPs across the House, this motion would require a public vote to confirm any Brexit deal passed by parliament before its ratification.

For: 268

Against: 295

O - Marcus Fysh’s - Contingent preferential arrangements

A group of Conservative MPs, including Marcus Fysh, Steve Baker and Priti Patel, have signed a motion that calls for the government to seek to agree preferential trade arrangements with the EU, in case the UK is unable to implement a withdrawal agreement with the bloc.

For: 139

Against: 422
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2h ago 21:38

The division bell is going. That means John Bercow, the Speaker, will announce the results of the indicative votes in about two minutes.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 28, 2019, 08:11:42 AM
Hi Robert,

All 8 of the 'indicative votes' were voted down yesterday, the closest being Ken Clarke's option of 'Customs Union only', which the EU have dismissed as an option.

Theresa May has promised to go if her 'deal' goes through but the notoriously difficult DUP will not back it atm - (if the N.Irish have ANY doubt about the UK's commitment to them, they are plumb crazy - you only have to look at the last 40 years of our commitment to see that).

Whether the Speaker will allow another vote on the unchanged May 'deal' is not certain.

Who knows where this is going ? NOT ME  ::)

What would I like ? As Mrs May's statement repeated more than 100 times in the HoC,
            'NO DEAL IS BETTER THAN A BAD DEAL".

I fear we are heading for a longer extension  :'(
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 28, 2019, 03:42:02 PM
Hey Tees - this wasn't you was it?  ;D

https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/crime/hunt-for-vandal-as-no-brexit-no-council-tax-graffiti-daubed-on-walls-across-sunderland-1-9671318/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Going back to the DUP, one of their ideas is to delay for a year, to allow time for the EU to implode whilst we start again with new leadership. It has merit. New elections in May and the EU economy is panning. The figures for Germany, Italy and particularly France are very worrying.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/27/mario-draghi-has-let-deflation-take-hold-now-impotent-spectator/

The European Central Bank has reached the end of the road. It no longer has the monetary levers or the political authority to launch another ‘shock and awe’ rescue if the eurozone tips into recession.

Mario Draghi tried valiantly to bluff his way through the ECB Watchers conference on Wednesday, laying out his surgical toolkit should the worst happen. “We are not short on instruments to deliver our mandate,” he said.
“What instruments?,” asked Ashoka Mody, the former deputy-director of the International Monetary Fund in Europe. “Aside from its jumble of words, the ECB has nothing else to offer.”

The eurozone’s 5-year/5-year forward inflation ‘swaps’ have collapsed over the last five trading days to 1.35pc. The contracts are pricing in a Japanese deflation trap as far out as 2024. Markets are screaming policy failure. The 10-year Bund yield - the eurozone fear gauge - has fallen to minus 0.08pc. It is a headlong scramble for safe-haven assets. Risk spreads on Italian 10-year bonds have jumped to 260 basis points.

“The ECB has lost its ability to act as a normal central bank. Its forward guidance is meaningless since markets know that it cannot raise rates,” said professor Mody. The ECB has frittered away its firepower and allowed a deflationary psychology to take hold.

Prof Mody said that for the last six months it has refused to acknowledge the recessionary storm clouds in plain view. “Riven by conflicting national interests, it always acts late. This pattern of repeated denials, delays, and half-measures is the antithesis of risk management,” he wrote for Econbrowser.

Mr Draghi argued that the eurozone region has seen 50 “growth slowdowns” since 1970 that are comparable to the current dip. Only four of these led to recessions. “The euro area faced an analogous situation in 2016, when the economy also went through a soft patch triggered by a contraction in world trade,” he said.

What he did not say is that the eurozone was then firing on all four cylinders, enjoying a rare moment of self-propelled ‘endogenous’ growth as it closed the output gap after the Long Slump. An oil price crash - thanks to Saudi efforts to flood the market - was then acting as a ‘tax cut’ for European consumers. 

Above all the ECB was buying €80bn of bonds each month. This spigot has been turned off. The ECB halted quantitative easing in December for political reasons, justifying this violation of monetary science with Panglossian growth forecasts that were patently false even at the time.

It has effectively tightened monetary policy into the teeth of a eurozone industrial recession (as it did in July 2008, with dire consequences). This is a very dangerous step to take given that policy lending rates are still stuck at minus 0.4pc. 
“They pulled QE too soon,” said James Ferguson, a monetarist at MacroStrategy. “The underlying economy is not fixed and the banks are not fixed. The chances of a deflationary bust have increased massively.” 

Mr Ferguson said the ECB misread its own M3 monetary data. The institution does not strip out the distortion of ‘intermediate OFC’s’  - hedge funds, finance vehicles, etc, - that cause double-counting. The Bank of England’s M4x is a purer measure.

This means the ECB overstated M3 growth by roughly 1.5pc annually. It is the difference between escape velocity and economic stagnation.

Nor is the global picture remotely akin to 2016. As we learned again this morning, China is not coming to the rescue this time. The profit growth of Chinese industrial companies crashed to minus 14pc over the January/February period from a year earlier, the worst earnings since May 2009.

Nomura said its ‘credit impulse’ measure in China has risen just 2.5 percentage points in the latest burst of stimulus. This compares to 14 points in the reflation episode of 2015-2016, and 30 points in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

The ECB has proffered a fresh round of cheap funding for the banks (TLTROs) but that is life-support. It is not a monetary propellant. “The TLTROs are an admission that the banks are still broken. They still cannot get money from the market at viable cost,” said Mr Ferguson.

Mr Draghi knows - but cannot admit - that the ECB was forced to shut down QE prematurely under pressure from Germany and the northern bloc. The real motives were political, rooted in the dysfunctional character of Europe’s half-built monetary union and German fears of debt union by stealth.

The longer QE continued, the more it looked like an Italian bail-out. This was tolerable - up to a point -  so long as reformers held sway in Rome. It was intolerable once the insurgent Lega-Five Star alliance took power in open defiance of EMU budget rules.

The end of QE means that there is no longer a buyer-of-last resort standing behind eurozone debt markets or the Italian treasury. This too is dangerous. Bond vigilantes know that the ECB is not allowed to buy the debt of a country in distress without formal activation of the eurozone bail-out machinery (ESM-OMT), under strict conditions and requiring a vote in the German Bundestag.

The Germans, Dutch, Finns, and allies may ultimately agree to restart QE if the downturn spins out of control but by then it is too late. Nor is it clear whether much can be achieved by plain vanilla debt purchases when the bonds of core Europe are already trading at negative yields and the ECB’s balance sheet is nearing technical limits at 43pc of GDP.

It would take ‘helicopter money’ or people’s QE injected into the veins of the real economy to pull Europe out of a deflationary vortex in today’s circumstances. That would breach the Lisbon Treaty and precipitate a storm in the German constitutional court.

For now Mr Draghi is having to put the best construction on the miserable options left to him, a little tinkering here and there to separate the ‘refi’ and ‘depo’ rates to help banks, a twist or two in forward guidance. None of this has macro-economic significance.

Antonio Garcia Pascual from Barclays has spelled out the ECB’s final lines of defence if the storm hits. It can “actively manage” its €2.6 trillion QE portfolio, compress credit spreads, relaunch QE, and ultimately broaden the menu of assets to include equities. In my view, events on the ground would overrun such plans.

Europe’s only option is a fiscal stimulus but this brings us back to the elemental failings of a monetary union composed of sub-sovereign borrowers with vastly different levels of legacy debt, but with no joint budget, shared borrowing mechanism (eurobonds) or a common ‘safe asset’.

The Stability Pact and Fiscal Compact make it impossible to launch Keynesian counter-cyclical stimulus a l’outrance in an emergency. If weaker states go it alone they will be picked off by markets. As rating agencies discovered in the Greek saga - to their astonishment - these countries are no different from cities or private companies. They can spiral into bankruptcy.  That is the euro’s design-flaw.
 
The ECB says fiscal loosening this year amounts to 0.4pc of GDP across Euroland, mostly from Emmanuel Macron’s danegeld to the ‘gilets jaunes’, the much-reduced spending spree of the Lega-Five Star, and higher public wages in Germany (€30bn). This may cushion a soft patch. It is no defence against a global slump. 

It might be a stretch to say that a no-deal Brexit would bring these hopeless vulnerabilities to a head in short order but it is not a big stretch. Nobody knows whether EMU’s fragile edifice could withstand such a shock if Brussels really acted on threats of a quasi blockade. EU leaders should be thankful that Britain’s parliament is unwilling to test the matter.

In a sense Europe is paying the price for policy errors made almost a decade ago. The ECB should never have raised rates in 2011 and triggered EMU's double-dip recession. It should not have delayed QE for five years after the Fed had already  shown the way.  This inertia - or hubris - allowed 'Japanese' pathologies to take root. Now the task is becoming impossible.

Events have come a long way since Mr Draghi uttered the words “whatever it takes” in July 2012, and magically brought the eurozone debt crisis to a halt. It is of course a mythical episode. The real decision was made in Berlin when contagion threatened to engulf Spain and Italy - which is not to deny that Mr Draghi was skillful.

The Kanzleramt lifted its veto and allowed the ECB to act as a lender-of-last resort (subject to conditions). I know for certain it was pre-cooked because I was in the room three weeks earlier when the head of German finance ministry told a dinner group in London that something big was coming. He even stated - accurately - that “nothing flies in the eurozone without German permission”.

Seven years later Mr Draghi is little more than a spectator. Judging by the action this week in the bond markets, his words now have the potency of a popgun.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on March 28, 2019, 03:59:22 PM
No Caller. Strange how they always make a spelling mistake, almost as if they are poorly educated.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 28, 2019, 04:46:44 PM
No Caller. Strange how they always make a spelling mistake, almost as if they are poorly educated.

More in a hurry I would have thought. Walking around with a tin of paint and a roller and writing what they did, must have taken some time! Amazed they are not on CCTV.

Somehow, I didn't think it would be you!  :-\
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 29, 2019, 05:40:52 AM
Caller - thanks for that AE-P article in the DT - fascinating reading but to be honest I didn't understand all of it  :-\ 

The Euro IS heading into rocky territory again but this time it looks as if there are no easy ways to ease through - it'll be interesting how Germany reacts post-Merkel as the clouds gather.

Coming back to Brexit or not, if May's bad 'deal' fails again today as looks likely, the GBP 39 billion will leave a hole in the EU budget, that's for sure . . . .  ???

I've heard it mooted that the UK should revoke Article 50 with a commitment to UK voters to invoke again when possible, (say after 2 years), then settle in to a new lively European Parliament for a while looking after the UK's interests as strongly as possible. Then as the Euro and the EU problems gather, invoke Article 50 again and renegotiate a Brexit from the start. The support in Parliament to leave a failing EU may be stronger then than it is now?

I still favour a hard Brexit April 12th - but it's doesn't look likely to happen IMO.

Story's of the UK's demise after Brexit are greatly but greatly exaggerated . . .
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on March 29, 2019, 06:01:11 AM
Why wish that the Euro looses its value? So many common people will get in trouble. Who are the persons who will suffer the most? Not the billionaires but the average common people! To be complete: I also do not wish that the pound goes down any further as this also gives problems for the persons involved. For me this way of thinking is strange and more looks like: if we (UK) are having a bad time so should others. I am too old for that way of thinking.  I have stated already many times that I did not like the way Euro was introduced with fixed exchange rates. Because of all the issues in the world I get a lot of less baht for my pensions Euro's. Please keep that also in mind when talking about Brexit. The EU also takes measures which I do not like and which have great impact on my life. However I also understand that free trade and custom union add to less costs and (hopefully) cheaper products. Some things are good in life and some are not, compromise, compromise. Most of us have to this every day when living here in Thailand  ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 29, 2019, 07:06:22 AM
Hi Robert - ''Why wish that the Euro loses its value?''

I'm not wishing it, just observing that the experts, including the IMF, are saying that the Eurozone faces a hard time . . . .
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on March 29, 2019, 07:17:57 AM
Hi Robert - ''Why wish that the Euro loses its value?''

I'm not wishing it, just observing that the experts, including the IMF, are saying that the Eurozone faces a hard time . . . .

Hi Roger,

maybe I was reading between the lines but I also understand Pound is suffering. In 2008 I got 51 Baht for the Euro and Pound was around 70 Baht.
Now for Euro 35,47 and for Pound 41,47 Baht. We both are loosing money which we like to spend here  ;D ;D

Politicians, hedge funds and money traders are persons/institutes whom I do not fancy too much.
Politicians because they promise the world before elections and when they are in forgetting who they represent.
Hedge Funds and money traders are only concerned about making money for themselves.

In my life have been in around 80 countries, total visits around 300. The richer get richer and the poorer does not get any more money.

Anyway, I am off for a swim now.

Robert
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on March 29, 2019, 07:19:42 AM
 >:( >:(
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 29, 2019, 08:20:32 AM
Very good Jivvy  ;)   ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on March 29, 2019, 08:55:33 AM
Robert, I don't believe the EU worries about the little people. The message from Germany and the North to the Southern states for their woes is more austerity. That's been forced on the ordinary people of Greece for years to come. The same indifference is one of the reasons behind the Brexit vote. When Osborne as Chancellor stood up in Parliament and announced the continued recovery of the economy, he was oblivious to the fact that none of this recovery found it's way to ordinary people, who didn't really see any obvious signs of recovery at all, they just had wage freezes (cuts) and changes to their work contracts.

Germany is in a bind over the plight of the economy and future trajectory of the Euro. To intervene, to move away from the rules, will need the Bundestag's approval and that won't go down well with ordinary people before the EU election. I bet somwething happens once the elections are over. But will that be too late? They are already working on old figures.

Meanwhile, in Italy, Salvini is clearly now the main player. His right wing coalition is winning everything in local elections, wiping out traditional socialist / status quo strongholds. I don't think anyone can impose more austerity on Italy now and I have no idea what will happen there or what the way forward is. But something has to change. There is no point continuing as they are.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on March 30, 2019, 05:32:50 AM
May's 'bad deal' failed again by 58 votes and I hope now that we HAVE seen the bl**dy last of it  >:(

So it's 'No Deal' OR a delay mooted between 9 months and 5 years   >:(

Looking for doom ? Bearing in mind and compounding the much discussed problems in the German economy, try these snippets from the DT today :-

''One potentially explosive event we can be certain of. France will take over Italy as the fourth most indebted country in the world. Statistics published this week show that France’s total public debt is now just a whisker behind its southern neighbour, and its spending plans for this year means it will overtake Italy very soon''.

And AE-P in the DT also . .

''Citigroup has issued an explicit recession warning for the United States, advising clients to wind down exposure to risky assets and prepare to ride out the storm. The bank’s global investment team said the US Federal Reserve over-tightened monetary policy last year, waiting too long to stop raising interest rates or to slow the pace of quantitative tightening (reverse QE). The economy is already shot below the waterline and will mostly likely succumb to the textbook pathologies of a fading expansion''.

So it looks to me that we are ALL in for a bumpy ride this year with an economic downturn. IMHO the EU with it's repopulated Parliament and the 'orrible Verhofstadt at the 'elm', is not likely to fare better than anyone else in the coming mire  ;)

NO predictions from me for the GBP/THB rate - but it's my guess that the least favourable scenario's are already priced in  . . .

'No Deal' please   ;D   ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 02, 2019, 06:11:46 PM
I'm exhausted with Brexit - but have to get this off my chest.

The EU "Mandarins' and other leading European figures bemoan of 'losing patience' as the UK Parliament's suffers contortions in trying to pass agreement of the 'negotiated' ''Withdrawal Agreement'' or anything else.

The UK Parliament's problems are a measure of the brutal and unforgiving 'stitching up' of Mrs May in these farcical negotiations - the EU never intended to give the UK any 'deal' which would be acceptable to the UK Parliament and this is just what they wanted. Now the EU is looking down on the Brits predicament and 'foolishness' in wanting to leave. Masterly. Mrs May shame on you - how did you fall for it ?

The 'orrible Verhofstadt was being very lofty as usual today - let's not forget he was PM of Belgium for 9 years and even now, Belgium has great difficulty in forming a Govt at all, there's been 20 weeks of serious rioting in France whilst Italy and others fulminate on various EU matters and Eurozone problems mount.

It's now confirmed that no matter how long the delay to Brexit, the Withdrawal Agreement will not be reopened. And that a delay to Brexit has risks for the EU  ;)  Yep 39 billion of 'em  ;)

GET ME OUTA HERE !!!  8)

(Caller - sorry to ask but did you see Roger Bootle's monday piece in the DT ?).
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Coolkorat on April 02, 2019, 07:06:28 PM
It's extraordinary Roger.

From Day 1 the EU took a position that the UK would crash and burn. The May government colluded. Who knows the intent: a subservient UK? A stronger Federal EU? An end to NATO (and the fingers of Russia pushing this)? We needed a government with strength of purpose from Day 1. May was never going to be this: she was/is a remainer.

On balance I would have favored 'remain and reform'. But the EU have proved to be a federalist cabal. F**k them, call their bluff, drop out. We don't need them.
 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on April 02, 2019, 07:22:00 PM
I'm exhausted with Brexit - but have to get this off my chest.

The EU "Mandarins' and other leading European figures bemoan of 'losing patience' as the UK Parliament's suffers contortions in trying to pass agreement of the 'negotiated' ''Withdrawal Agreement'' or anything else.

The UK Parliament's problems are a measure of the brutal and unforgiving 'stitching up' of Mrs May in these farcical negotiations - the EU never intended to give the UK any 'deal' which would be acceptable to the UK Parliament and this is just what they wanted. Now the EU is looking down on the Brits predicament and 'foolishness' in wanting to leave. Masterly. Mrs May shame on you - how did you fall for it ?

The 'orrible Verhofstadt was being very lofty as usual today - let's not forget he was PM of Belgium for 9 years and even now, Belgium has great difficulty in forming a Govt at all, there's been 20 weeks of serious rioting in France whilst Italy and others fulminate on various EU matters and Eurozone problems mount.

It's now confirmed that no matter how long the delay to Brexit, the Withdrawal Agreement will not be reopened. And that a delay to Brexit has risks for the EU  ;)  Yep 39 billion of 'em  ;)

GET ME OUTA HERE !!!  8)

(Caller - sorry to ask but did you see Roger Bootle's monday piece in the DT ?).

Hi Roger,

I was tempted NOT to react to your comments but ...... There is a difference between (most) of the EU countries and the UK so I think I should explain. At least in my country there is no 2 party system so in The Netherlands political parties always have to negotiate a deal and compromise. So maybe we are more used to this "game"? But please explain to me why EU should give the UK the best deal for leaving? Why did the House of Commons not react earlier on the proposed deal? Is Mrs May to blame for this? When reading all the stories and seeing all the NO's in any voting I assume it would have been better to find common grounds before closing a deal.  Personally I think UK cabinet overplayed their hand thinking they could deliver the magic card, but boy how they got this wrong.

The EU thinks rightfully that the ball is now in UK's playground. By the way I also do not like Verhofstadt, but the same goes for Nigel Farage for me. I do not like populists left or right, period. For me common sense is more logical and that is what I can understand.

Uk does not want a hard Brexit, voted NO. All other options also got a NO vote so what can EU suggest/change now to let UK leave with an acceptable deal? The UK and EU both do not want a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Only do not agree how to do this in a modern way. Where are the suggestions from the UK what they would like to change? So at least some platform for discussions and maybe changes. But if nothing being put on the table what can EU do otherwise then to stick to the current deal? Love or divorce has to come from both sides IMHO.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dam12641 on April 02, 2019, 07:48:07 PM
"There is a difference between (most) of the EU countries and the UK."

Yes there is. They are all used to being walked over/conquered/occupied by the Germans or the French.
We are not. And never will be.

Very simplistic I admit, but most Europeans (note that when I say that I mean 'continental Europeans', I do not include the Brits) have never understood this.
De Gaulle did. Bless him.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 02, 2019, 07:54:39 PM
Hi Roger, no didn't read that article - exhausted.

The biggest issue now is that Parliament has largely given up on Brexit. But deep down are scared of the reaction that scrapping Brexit will cause - and it will.

So they are trying to come up with compromises for a soft Brexit that just keeping splitting Parliament. Basically, it's what is the softest Brexit they can get away with? The answer is none.

The only thing that seems to be uniting the Country is how appalled and shocked everyone is with the clowns in Parliament. But they don't seem to be taking any notice of that. One article the other day asked if any of them actually saw ordinary people anymore, so immune do they appear to be of how people feel. 

Now another group is seeking to force an extension to article 50.

I'm just waiting for the time a segment of society starts to react in a hostile way.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 02, 2019, 08:11:55 PM
But please explain to me why EU should give the UK the best deal for leaving?

Because it's in their interests to do so and always has been. But right now that's becoming more important than ever.

"If you are an American hedge fund and/or a Japanese life insurer, what conclusion do you draw about the solvency of the European banking system, or the risk that debt-deflation will lead to a cascade of sovereign defaults? Edward Harrison from Credit Writedowns in the US is not alone in wondering whether the logic of this brinkmanship might prove to be Europe’s “Lehman moment”."

"Airbus has already stated that a full breakdown in cross-channel trade would lead to losses of €1bn a week. The supply chain would “fall apart”. Some 4,000 UK firms supply more than 10,0000 aircraft parts. These include Rolls-Royce engines. The biggest industrial venture in Europe with 108,000 employees would be hobbled for as long as Brussels stuck to its hard-line policy."

"Right now the eurozone is in deepening industrial recession. IHS Markit’s manufacturing PMI fell to a six-year low in March. Germany has seen the worst industrial deterioration since the eurozone banking crisis in July 2012. What happens if the EU impose customs clearance costs on Mercedes parts from suppliers in Coventry-Birmingham in these circumstances?"

"The sovereign/bank "doom loop" remains much as before. It will be tested in Italy where the banks still hold €370bn of Italian state bonds, and the state must roll over or raise €400bn of debt over the next year (€225bn medium and long-term). Deep recession will automatically cause Italy’s debt ratio to ratchet upwards into uncharted terrain."

"The problem for Emmanuel Macron as he fans the flames of a no-deal Brexit is that his banks own a large chunk of Italy’s debt through subsidiaries. Total French exposure is 12 times French GDP, six times its exposure to Greece in 2010."

"Mr Macron’s other problem is that France has shot up the debt league. Combined public, household, and corporate debt has jumped by 67 percentage points of GDP since 2007."(Me: Many believe that France will soon overtake Italy and become the sick man of Europe)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/04/02/no-deal-brexit-existential-crisis-akin-lehmans-collapse-overegged/

There's loads of stuff like this out there and it's not confined to British economists and financial experts.




Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 02, 2019, 10:27:42 PM
Sorry, lots to reply to, but this has to be first . . HOT off the DT press . . .  :D

''Brexit vote latest news: Emmanuel Macron says EU will not be 'hostage to crisis in the UK' and warns Article 50 extension is not a given''.

I'm afraid Macron is typical of EU arrogance and cleverness - this is a Guy who cannot control his own streets and has a massive disapproval rating in his own France. The fact that France AND the EU have not had the intelligence to offer the UK a sensible deal for Brexit which the UK Parliament could accept, and have only, in the pursuit of defending their own fears for the success of their fragile venture let alone for ever closer union, have bullied the hopeless Mrs May into this position, (with some ease I'm sad to say).

The EU have created the political crisis - Macron's comment is laughable. It'd be better if he shut up on this subject and talked to the people on his own streets. Macron - plonker par excellence. As the French are well aware  ;)

If the EU had any serious nous and wit, they would be protecting their GBP 50 billion surplus into the UK a little more smartly - for example, how about not behaving like total bullying morons and 'negotiate' a deal that the UK Parliament might have been able to accept.

When I read about such attitude, it reinforces my wish to leave. But I do hope Macron has the balls to veto any extension and we can GO   :)   :)   :)   :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on April 03, 2019, 06:11:46 AM
Always blame others, I give up now. Bye bye.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 03, 2019, 07:59:58 AM
Robert - ponder a little - I blame Mrs May first.
However, Macron is responsible for what he says about Brexit . . .
I do hope Macron has the balls to veto any extension and we can GO
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 03, 2019, 08:21:50 AM
Hi again Robert - it's a Forum, reacting is good . . . re. your earlier post . .

''But please explain to me why EU should give the UK the best deal for leaving ?'' - Caller has answered that better than I could  :)

''Why did the House of Commons not react earlier on the proposed deal?''
The point is, they did - but the EU had dictated the format of negotiations starting with GBP 39 billion - Mrs May did her miserable best to get something out of the EU and HoC have not so far been able to accept it.

WE AGREE on Verhofstadt AND Farage . . .

''. . . if nothing being put on the table what can EU do . . '' NOT so - the EU have refused many many suggestions and even now are saying whatever happens in the UK, the Withdrawal Agreement will not be re-opened for any change whatsoever - no matter how small that change might be.

Dam has answered your other point well, about 'difference'. 

''UK does not want a hard Brexit'' - yet Mrs May said in HoC more than 100 times, that 'NO deal is better than a BAD deal'. And a 'hard brexit' is still in law, the default position.

Robert - thanks for the chat. ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on April 03, 2019, 12:09:44 PM
"There is a difference between (most) of the EU countries and the UK."

Yes there is. They are all used to being walked over/conquered/occupied by the Germans or the French.
We are not. And never will be.

Very simplistic I admit, but most Europeans (note that when I say that I mean 'continental Europeans', I do not include the Brits) have never understood this.
De Gaulle did. Bless him.

Hi Dam,

not by the French nor the Germans but it all depends how far you want to go back in history.

Regards,
Robert
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on April 03, 2019, 12:21:41 PM
Hi again Robert - it's a Forum, reacting is good . . . re. your earlier post . .

''But please explain to me why EU should give the UK the best deal for leaving ?'' - Caller has answered that better than I could  :)

''Why did the House of Commons not react earlier on the proposed deal?''
The point is, they did - but the EU had dictated the format of negotiations starting with GBP 39 billion - Mrs May did her miserable best to get something out of the EU and HoC have not so far been able to accept it.

WE AGREE on Verhofstadt AND Farage . . .

''. . . if nothing being put on the table what can EU do . . '' NOT so - the EU have refused many many suggestions and even now are saying whatever happens in the UK, the Withdrawal Agreement will not be re-opened for any change whatsoever - no matter how small that change might be.

Dam has answered your other point well, about 'difference'. 

''UK does not want a hard Brexit'' - yet Mrs May said in HoC more than 100 times, that 'NO deal is better than a BAD deal'. And a 'hard brexit' is still in law, the default position.

Robert - thanks for the chat. ATB

Hi Roger,

negotiations always start with wishes/demands from both sides. Sometimes one party has to give and sometimes the other party. Maybe the EU were better in this game than the UK? The UK could also have said NO, NO we cannot accept this deal but your chief negotiator accepted some kind of deal. Please, please look at it from both sides NOT only from UK side allthough if I were British and wanted to leave I would stick to my opinion whatever other kind of arguments pop up. I do not know if deal was the best possible for both sides but I had to make deals in my life but never got 100% what I wanted. Looking at all the comments I read in the papers the most fuss was about the backstop between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The UK as well as the EU want an open border so find a solution. Defending your principle looks ok but common sense should prevail.

I still think a last minute deal will happen  ;D ;D ;D

Anyway I will leave this Brexit topic to the leavers as there seems to be a mojority here and I do want to shout anymore against the wind. Have a nice Brexit or whatever.

Robert
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 03, 2019, 01:14:34 PM
Robert,

One of the things that has shocked and angered many in the UK about Brexit has been the hostility from Europe. Many, like May, thought they would respect the democratic vote in the UK, understand and accept we were leaving and work towards creating an outcome that would be mutually beneficial. We are, after all, a major and important ally.

Instead, the reaction of Brussels has been overly aggressive with language used that you would expect at a time of hostility. Personally, this was no real surprise to me, having been reading about how the EU operates since 2013 and there were many in the UK who warned of what to expect.

But don't underestimate the anger of ordinary people, who don't appear on TV or otherwise shout very loud about this. Friends who were remainers have been so shocked by this, they want nothing more to do with the EU. Including not holidaying there (not many Brits will be this year as data shows) as they are so angry. Mainly the anger is towards our own Government, but there is a latent anger towards the EU as well.

The Tory party members are now in full swing in the process of deselecting the worst of the turncoat MP's, some who are still being supported by May, despite their doing their utmost to overturn Brexit, so out of tune has the Parliamentary party become with the grassroots, funding is drying up to the extent there are warnings they can't even fight an election.

At Dominic Grieves recent vote of no-confidence, which naturally he has blamed on UKIP members who have joined the party, which isn't supported by those in the know, the sense of distrust between local activists and those who run the Tories has reached such a low, that the lady activists watching over the proceedings insisted that the vote be counted in front of them and not taken away to be counted in private.

Seriously, if a meaningful Brexit isn't delivered, don't imagine for one moment it will ever go away and it will either happen or the EU will change so much, as most believe it has to, to simply survive, that Brexit is no longer needed.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on April 03, 2019, 01:28:24 PM
Robert,

One of the things that has shocked and angered many in the UK about Brexit has been the hostility from Europe. Many, like May, thought they would respect the democratic vote in the UK, understand and accept we were leaving and work towards creating an outcome that would be mutually beneficial. We are, after all, a major and important ally.

Instead, the reaction of Brussels has been overly aggressive with language used that you would expect at a time of hostility. Personally, this was no real surprise to me, having been reading about how the EU operates since 2013 and there were many in the UK who warned of what to expect.

But don't underestimate the anger of ordinary people, who don't appear on TV or otherwise shout very loud about this. Friends who were remainers have been so shocked by this, they want nothing more to do with the EU. Including not holidaying there (not many Brits will be this year as data shows) as they are so angry. Mainly the anger is towards our own Government, but there is a latent anger towards the EU as well.

The Tory party members are now in full swing in the process of deselecting the worst of the turncoat MP's, some who are still being supported by May, despite their doing their utmost to overturn Brexit, so out of tune has the Parliamentary party become with the grassroots, funding is drying up to the extent there are warnings they can't even fight an election.

At Dominic Grieves recent vote of no-confidence, which naturally he has blamed on UKIP members who have joined the party, which isn't supported by those in the know, the sense of distrust between local activists and those who run the Tories has reached such a low, that the lady activists watching over the proceedings insisted that the vote be counted in front of them and not taken away to be counted in private.

Seriously, if a meaningful Brexit isn't delivered, don't imagine for one moment it will ever go away and it will either happen or the EU will change so much, as most believe it has to, to simply survive, that Brexit is no longer needed.

Hi Caller,

As I think not polite not to reply my last comments then.

Allthough the EU stands for Europarlement do not get confused how the individual person in Europe thinks about EU. Many also want reforms within the EU so fully agree with your last sentence. Only remember this too. The EU consists of 27 different states with different mentality/opinions/views. Personally I would like to change the EU back to trade agreements only. The boys in Brussels thought about United States of Europe but that will never happen, big mistake thinking that way.

Hope it turns out the best for everybody.

Robert
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 03, 2019, 03:08:25 PM
Allthough the EU stands for Europarlement do not get confused how the individual person in Europe thinks about EU. Many also want reforms within the EU so fully agree with your last sentence. Only remember this too. The EU consists of 27 different states with different mentality/opinions/views. Personally I would like to change the EU back to trade agreements only.

I know Robert, which was why I specifically talked of Brussels as opposed to the rest of the EU.

The forthcoming EU elections will be a barometer of that desire for change. Up until now the elected (not by Joe Public) head of the Commission has always been an ideologue (love that word, used by German industrialists to describe the EU Brexit negotiators) and it will be interesting to see if that changes. Likewise, for the rest of the commission, of whom about 50% are standing down in any case. The more 'change' MEP's there are, the more they can alter the direction of the EU. Italy and Salvini are banking on it as a means to survive. So could we be!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 03, 2019, 03:20:23 PM
Hi Robert, thanks for your comments . . .

I'm sure most here will agree with you 100% on two points in your last post :-
 
     1.  ''Personally I would like to change the EU back to trade agreements only.''
     2.  ''Hope it turns out the best for everybody.''

                                Hallelujah to that  :)

Caller - I really enjoy your posts on Brexit and wonder if the EU will have this in mind when they consider an 'extension' of Article 50 again . . .

''Seriously, if a meaningful Brexit isn't delivered, don't imagine for one moment it will ever go away.''

                                And Hallelujah to that too  >:(



Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 03, 2019, 04:51:52 PM
Yes there is. They are all used to being walked over/conquered/occupied by the Germans or the French.
We are not. And never will be.

Petty English nationalism: that's what Brexit is really about. "Brexit was made in England". Thank you Dam and the others for highlighting it so clearly, over and over again.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVXBnfGFQe0
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 03, 2019, 05:22:33 PM
Hey Anton - after a long break, I would have expected something a little more original than a repeat of your favourite clip  ;)

That said - BEWARE - there's NOTHING 'petty' about Brexit or the "Nationalism'  ;)

The other day I noted, ''The 'orrible Verhofstadt was being very lofty as usual today - let's not forget he was PM of Belgium for 9 years and even now, Belgium has great difficulty in forming a Govt at all''. Can you give us an update on that ?

Your posting is much missed here. ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Coolkorat on April 03, 2019, 07:22:39 PM
Could I strongly recommend the book Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind by Yuval Noah Harari. It gives some amazing insights into the thinking of Homo Sapiens, and particularly the thinking behind the manipulation of large groups. It gives good reason to reassess the thinking behind 'nations' and why particular groups believe they are better than others. But he makes a powerful point; money transcends everything. And when you view the current crisis, money is the element that all parties agree upon (as something they share in common), be it the pound, euro, dollar, gold etc. Money has been at the core of this crisis, continues to be at the core, and will be the catalyst to solving the issue. Nothing to do with nations, immigration etc. The central premise is the economic effect, not the social effect. Money really does make the world go round.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on April 03, 2019, 11:58:34 PM
Money has been at the core of this crisis, continues to be at the core, and will be the catalyst to solving the issue. Nothing to do with nations, immigration etc.

The crisis was economical since the start, and a global one as we all know. Brexit was the bad political solution to it. Bad politicians levering on people's basic instincts brought up "a victory of the old, the less-educated and the xenophobic", to put it with an American opinionist that I had already quoted before (source (https://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/theresa-mays-empty-brexit-promises)). That English nationalism played a major role in that victory, being a more determining factor than the working class' material grievances, is also the opinion of other Brexit experts, e.g. this academic professor (https://networks.h-net.org/node/3911/discussions/1469347/english-nationalism-and-brexit#_ftnref7). There's much evidence of it also in this discussion anyway, Dam's reply above (no. 676) being just the last one.

Who is to blame? Bad, right-wing, populist politicians. As Woody Allen once put it so well: "In general, any victory by right-wing politicians is always bad news, is always a dangerous matter. Because right-wing politicians give simplistic answers to enormous problems. Homeless persons are there? Chase them away! The number of criminals is growing? Re-introduce death penalty! Solutions that, of course, do not try to understand the reasons that are behind the phenomena they try to solve. Solutions that may seem effective at the moment, but after 20 years it will be worse, to the detriment of future generations who will have to face even more tremendous problems" (from a 1995 interview to Italian media).
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 04, 2019, 07:05:31 AM
CK from your frustration expressed recently you now retreat into ''A Brief History of Humankind'', and I'm sure that's a good way forward  :-\

Anton thanks for those comments - it'll be interesting to see some replies . .  ;)

Moving on - AE-P in the DT today :-

''May-Corbyn customs union is constitutional nonsense and a total victory for Brussels''

''So we lurch towards a permanent customs union and British infeudation as a non-voting member of the EU legal and regulatory system. This can end only in acrimony and years of bitter conflict with Europe. Sooner or later an explosive issue will arise. It will become clear why a G7 industrial democracy with 65 million people cannot subcontract swaths of policy-making to a foreign power.  The constitutional arrangement is not viable. It guarantees an abrogation crisis down the road.

For good measure we are now more likely to get a radical-Left government as well, one with anti-globalist reflexes, confiscatory tax and anti-wealth policies, and possibly capital controls
.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/04/03/may-corbyn-customs-union-constitutional-nonsense-total-victory/

Strewth  >:(  Plenty of food for thought there  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Thaiwolf on April 04, 2019, 10:14:22 AM
May’s deal is the only way forward - most people and Members of Parliament know this. Brexit with a customs union is not a real Brexit. Brexiteers are now fearful of a customs union exit therefore will vote for May’s deal. Remainers on both sides, are now fearful of a no-deal brexit and will vote for May’s deal.

The EU may give May a little “tidbit” to sweeten things a little and May’s deal will scrape through.

There will be riots on the streets if Britain leaves with a customs union and associated freedom of movement.
Let’s hope everyone sees sense.

PS I just hope Macron vetoes our extension … .then wait for the fireworks!!!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Hector on April 04, 2019, 10:21:11 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63IcW4eo4uM
This is worth watching (listening to as it has sub-titles) whatever your views on Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Thaiwolf on April 04, 2019, 10:34:05 AM
I’m no expert but forgive me if I’m wrong.
 
May’s deal provides, no freedom of movement, no European court jurisdiction, no customs union, ability to negotiate our own deals. What’s not to like? The NI border issue can be solved by technology? What happens at other EU external borders?

Labour and Conservative MPs need to get together to take the DUP votes out of the equation. Stop p***ing about!!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 04, 2019, 12:35:45 PM
I’m no expert but forgive me if I’m wrong.
 
May’s deal provides, no freedom of movement, no European court jurisdiction, no customs union, ability to negotiate our own deals. What’s not to like? The NI border issue can be solved by technology? What happens at other EU external borders?

Labour and Conservative MPs need to get together to take the DUP votes out of the equation. Stop p***ing about!!

Yes, it's just legally not having a unilateral legal right to exercise our right to leave that is the problem. Change that and we can move on to the next phase.

May is killing the Tory party and I believe civil  unrest is now almost unavoidable. You simply cannot get away with not respecting the referendum.

I bet Farage's Brexit party do well. All those betrayed people ain't going away in the same way that remainers haven't.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 04, 2019, 02:57:45 PM
Anton - working through your points as no-one else has :-

The crisis that led to Brexit was the rise of UKIP was it not ? That led to Cameron offering a 'Referendum'. Not specifically due to economics. I don't think anyone believes that 'Brexit' was/is the cure for an economic crisis.

If the Brits want to reassert their 'nationalism' they are not alone in Europe on that are they? The Brits tried to get some changes in the EU but the EU was intransigent (as ever) and intent on 'ever closer union'.

You invoke 'academics' and the wisdom of Woody Allen wondering about chasing the homeless away and reintroducing the death penalty etc - what is all that about ?
The Brexit Referendum was about a desire in the UK populace to leave the EU and it's ever closer union and bureacracy - something felt by many people - be they right or left!

IMO calling Politicians of any hue 'Populist' is often just trying to place a vague 'detract' against a democratic consensus with which you do not agree.

Good to see you back !
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 04, 2019, 03:13:02 PM
Hector - 'vielen dank' indeed. A straight talking Lady - thought provoking . .

Anton - have you watched that link ?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on April 04, 2019, 04:11:53 PM
Hector - 'vielen dank' indeed. A straight talking Lady - thought provoking . .

Anton - have you watched that link ?

Hi Roger,

underneath an extract from an  article from The Guardian.


 :( https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/04/europe-family-brexit-children-eu (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/04/europe-family-brexit-children-eu)
Michael Morpurgo

There will be a life after this divorce. But how will it be? Leave or remain, half the country will be greatly hurt. It is our insensitivity to the immense hurt all this has caused to the rest of the European family of nations that I have found most shameful. Right from the start of negotiations we insisted on playing it the haughty way. We are the fifth biggest economy in the world. Europe will roll over and do our bidding to keep our business. We can dictate our terms for the divorce. The trouble, we soon discovered, is that Europe too has its pride, and they don’t like being talked down to or dictated to any more than we do. They bite back. That’s what happens in divorces.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on April 04, 2019, 05:11:32 PM
There will be a life after this divorce. But how will it be? Leave or remain, half the country will be greatly hurt. It is our insensitivity to the immense hurt all this has caused to the rest of the European family of nations that I have found most shameful. Right from the start of negotiations we insisted on playing it the haughty way. We are the fifth biggest economy in the world. Europe will roll over and do our bidding to keep our business. We can dictate our terms for the divorce. The trouble, we soon discovered, is that Europe too has its pride, and they don’t like being talked down to or dictated to any more than we do. They bite back. That’s what happens in divorces.

From my point of view, one of the biggest failures on the UK side has been the PR side - winning the argument, saying the right things and most importantly not saying the wrong things in public. It's like they acted and spoke at times as if they were in a closed room when in fact their words were listened to and read throughout the world. That said, the EU big-wigs have been just as insensitive at times. It's not like friends that are going their seperate ways. It's just a business arrangement that is being undone or rearranged.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 04, 2019, 05:44:21 PM
Alfie, there's some very frank thoughts from Dr Alice Weidel (AfD) speaking in the Bundestag in Hector's earlier link - says it for me . . . .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63IcW4eo4uM

Robert - I'm sure the UK side may have put their foot in it - but IMO it made no difference as the EU plan from the start was to screw the UK to the wall - and Mrs May was too dumb to see it.

Off now - till tomorrow then. ATB
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 04, 2019, 07:01:52 PM
The crisis that led to Brexit was the rise of UKIP was it not ? That led to Cameron offering a 'Referendum'. Not specifically due to economics. I don't think anyone believes that 'Brexit' was/is the cure for an economic crisis.

Brexit is more about defining Britain's integrity and it's role as a trading nation than just economics. If it was the latter, we could have just become a free trade zone and stuck two fingers up to everyone.

I would also disagree that the trigger for Brexit was UKIP. It would be more accurate to say ithe trigger was when Farage became leader of UKIP. But it was only building on a solid base of eurosceptism that was already out there and which had been let down by promises made about the UK's relationship with the EU that were never fulfilled (nothing changes).

The fact over 17m voted to leave the EU proves the point really.
Title: Re: Brexit - Dr Alice Weidel
Post by: Roger on April 05, 2019, 01:25:03 PM
Jacob Rees-Mogg was attacked on 'Today' for 'tweeting' this very same YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63IcW4eo4uM

J R-M was not amused. I too think it quite possible to agree with Dr Weidel's views on Brexit without necessarily endorsing her views on Immigration and Muslims. For myself, she articulated on Brexit exactly what I have felt myself over the last two years whilst observing the process.

Before writing Dr Weidel off as a 'Populist', a common trick used to downplay any view that fails to meet the conventional 'wisdoms' these days, I'd suggest 'Popular' as being more accurate - the amount of support for her comments in the Bundestag was quite evident.

''The EU should have given David Cameron the concessions he asked for . . . this Brexit will be costly for the EU, which means that by definition, costly for German Taxpayers. Costly like the Bank bailouts, the Greece bailout, the green energy policy, the opening of the border, the destruction of the automobile and other key industries, and the massive inflation of our single currency . . . .

The UK is the second biggest economy in the EU, as big as the 19 smallest combined.

Onto Brexit for which you are partly responsible, due to your negligence and your failure to help out the UK. Our historically good relationship with the UK is being threatened as a result. What did David Cameron ask that was so terrible? No more social welfare payments immediately and for everyone. Stronger National Parliaments. Less EU bureaucracy. But in Brussels he was banging his head against a brick wall . . . .

(Is the UK) . . a Partner with whom we have lived together for 40 years in good times and bad, really going to be treated like Paraguay or Papua New Guinea ?  . . What a mockery. Is it any wonder that the UK sees bad faith behind every manouevre from Brussels ?

Brexit negotiator Barnier, is supposed to have confided in Friends, I quote, ''my mission will have been a success when the terms are so brutal for the British, that they prefer to stay in the Union''. With Friends like these . . .

The EU must be reformed from within. This includes a veto right for Nation States against rules from Brussels, reforming Article 50, granting access to the single market for exiting Countries, and securing the EU's external borders
. . . . ''

These are just extracts - DR Weidel bemoans the effect on Germany's EU influence as the UK leaves and the effect on the German economy. She's very 'down' on France !

As Hector posted, ''This is worth watching (listening to as it has sub-titles) whatever your views on Brexit.'' Thanks very much Hector  :)   :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 09, 2019, 07:12:00 AM
Oh Happy Day  ;)   :)   :)   :)

Theresa May told 'you are the problem' by backbenchers furious over Brexit paralysis as they urge her to go for good of the party . . . . .

''Theresa May is facing demands from her own MPs to stand down immediately after senior backbenchers told her she is now “the problem”. A delegation of executives from the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers met Mrs May in Downing Street on Monday and said the mood among party supporters had turned against her over the weekend.

Mrs May sat in stony silence and refused to discuss her future as the MPs made clear the “damage” she is causing the party, sources said.The meeting will draw comparisons with the final days of Margaret Thatcher's reign when she was visited by "the men in grey suits and prevailed upon to resign for the good of the Party
''.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/08/theresa-may-told-problem-backbenchers-urge-go-good-party/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Thaiwolf on April 11, 2019, 09:09:34 AM
Can anyone explain to poor old me??

The EU are saying “Britain must tell us what they want” on one side of their mouth and then “We will not negotiate, the deal is the deal” on the other side. I’ll tell you what Britain wants you numpties, we want a time limit on the backstop – clear enough for you!!
The EU’s intransigence and seeming desire to humiliate Britain will ultimately backfire and they should be punished with a “no deal”. On the same day that a “no deal” is announced, we should also announce that we are pulling out of NATO… look after your own eastern borders …   we are tired of defending you!!!

Later we should tell the Scots, don’t worry about an independence referendum, you can go and then start building customs posts on all major routes into the UK.

It’s about time we stopped P***ing around with these pompous arses and start showing our teeth!!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 11, 2019, 01:55:22 PM
The wolf bares his teeth . . .

TW I think many of us are tearing our hair out - those that have any  ;)

Today's news - if May's deal is signed up any time before Oct 31st we can Brexit as soon as the Acts are passed. European elections are to go ahead May 22nd unless HoC accepts May's deals before then.

"Intransigent' as you say TW - the Withdrawal Agreement cannot be reopened. But if HoC approves a Customs Union deal, I'm sure the EU would find a way.

Meantime things continue as they are  :-\

Given the bugger's muddle of May's deal, one wonders if we should revoke Article 50 and then, try again later, maybe when HoC is better organised, we have a new Prime Minister AND the EU might well be in a weaker position.

I disagree about Scotland and NATO though . . .  8)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 11, 2019, 03:05:11 PM
German industrialists continue to kick up a stink about the EU negotiating tactics, calling for a fair and equitable deal for the UK. They understand what side of their bread is buttered.

So let's sit back and see the EU rip itself apart, four populist groups - from Italy, Germany, Finland and Denmark (might not be 100% correct) have already aligned as one grouping expecting to achieve about a quarter of all seats in the EU Parliament - then there is the NR in France, Hungary, Austria and other populist parties around the EU. If they can agree to work together, they could block, change and turn the current EU thinking inside out. And they all want less Europe. They are calling for Salvini as the next President of the Commission - bring it on.

Meanwhile, Germany is sliding into recession, unemployment is increasing and the future of the Euro will be up for debate again.

And the UK economy goes from strength to strength, defying all the predictions, which should give us a nice buffer zone if a no-deal comes to fruition (which it never will when Juncker and Bernier are shown the door).
 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 12, 2019, 03:05:17 PM
Judging by the reactions of some of my friends who are longing for a politician to knock on their door, just so they can let rip, this Sky news article is spot on.

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-backlash-party-activists-fear-hostility-could-turn-sinister-11691211
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 12, 2019, 05:21:02 PM
Caller - I think it'll stay hostile but hostile  :(

Loved these bits :-

''Most are unequivocal: they blame Theresa May and want her to go. "It isn't just six weeks of incompetence, it's two and a half years." But this isn't just a rejection of the Tory party and Theresa May, the backlash extends to Labour too''.

and . .

''Canvassing feels pretty tough - mainly people want to tell us we are all corrupt and f****** useless." . . . . . "It's vitriolic. You knock at a door and the people on the other side scream at you''.

Thanks for that  :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 12, 2019, 05:25:42 PM
and there's more - Arlene Foster, IDS and Owen Paterson after a Meeting yesterday ?

''We have met Michel Barnier on many occasions previously, but this was a useful meeting to encourage the EU's chief negotiator to think again. It was useful for him to hear a combined delegation who could further explain why the withdrawal agreement is failing to secure the support of Parliament. Only time will tell if he was listening.''


https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/arlene-foster-we-left-mr-barnier-in-no-doubt-of-our-view-that-withdrawalagreement-is-fatally-flawed-and-new-approach-is-needed-38007375.html
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: sfs on April 13, 2019, 12:17:23 AM
Today we have the new Brexit party headed by Nigel Farage and one of the new members is Rees-Moggs sister. If we have a general election anytime soon in the UK I think this party may do well.

I have been a lifelong Tory supporter but never again, so Nigel may get my vote next time around.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 13, 2019, 08:03:38 AM
SFS - it seems we have a few Brexiteers posting, plus a Robert from the Netherlands and an Anton of Belgian origin.

As a Brexit devotee, I just can't see where it's going atm. I was very disappointed to read yesterday, that preparations for a 'No Deal' have been 'iced' - that's the 'No Deal' Mrs May said 100 times, would be better than a BAD Deal !!

The present 'Withdrawal Agreement' is a 'Bad Deal' and not a proper Brexit at all - even now there is talk of approaching the EU again for changes - but they've got us by the b*lls and surely won't let go  >:(

Beam me up - I'd like to return, when Mrs May has gone and Speaker Bercow has been replaced, after a General Election in which the Tories will be marmalized  ::) and when a reconstituted European Parliament sits again, after it's coming elections.

Oh Dear  :P
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: jivvy on April 13, 2019, 08:57:32 AM
 ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 14, 2019, 06:30:40 AM
Any ideas what's next anyone ?

''Theresa May is staring humiliation in the face, about to go down in history as the prime minister who had one job and failed. Her defining task was to take us out of the EU, and now it looks as if it will never happen. Yet this week in parliament she seemed indestructibly positive, confident and cheerful.''

''Yet people believe what they want to believe. Theresa May believes she can still save her premiership. Much of her party believes that leaving the EU without a deal is still possible. For a long time, we thought Brexit would continue to dominate our politics for years after we left, as Michael Gove or whoever negotiated the long-term trade deal with the EU. Instead, Brexit will continue to dominate our public debate for years after we fail to leave.''

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-farage-brexit-party-european-parliament-elections-a8868436.html
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 16, 2019, 05:04:56 AM
Theresa May tells civil service to continue no-deal Brexit planning after 'dereliction of duty' accusations

''Theresa May has written to every civil servant to tell them no-deal Brexit preparations "must continue" after a  backlash over the Government’s decision to "wind down" its worst-case scenario planning. The Prime Minister sent the message to Whitehall workers on Monday morning to tell them the “necessary preparations” would carry on - but with a “sensibly adjusted” timetable.

Mrs May also said that it would be up to permanent secretaries - the most senior civil servant in a department - to decide what to plan for and when. It emerged last week that the Government had shelved some of its no-deal planning
. . . .''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/15/theresa-may-tells-civil-servants-no-deal-planning-will-continue/

While there's life there's hope ?   :-\
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 16, 2019, 01:46:04 PM
I see that that May has gone on another walking holiday, let's hope she doesn't meet with an accident.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 16, 2019, 05:37:03 PM
Now now Caller  ;)  I know what you mean though  :-\

Just to cheer you up - we didn't see this coming LOL - hot off the DT !

''Donald Tusk has hinted at a further Brexit delay as he told the “exhausted” European Union and the United Kingdom to resist the temptation to just “get it over with” out of frustration. Mr Tusk said the UK would likely take part in European elections next month and the MEPs it elected would be in post “for several months, maybe longer” as he opened the door to reversing Brexit or another Article 50 extension beyond October 31.

The President of the European Council said the current delay would allow the UK to “rethink” its decision to leave as he suggested it was his “dream” that Britain would stay in the bloc
''.

Thanks Mr Tusk, but I'll stick with this and stuff David Lammy MP :-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63IcW4eo4uM

The Lady got it right  ;)

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: KiwiCanadian on April 16, 2019, 09:11:32 PM
I came across this on Utube,
If there is court action, I would think that May would be tried and found guilty of treason, should be hung from the highest Yardarm in the land.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBe-X7aFus8

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 17, 2019, 11:27:44 AM
I came across this on Utube,
If there is court action, I would think that May would be tried and found guilty of treason, should be hung from the highest Yardarm in the land.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBe-X7aFus8


Bill Cash, a solicitor in his own right, wrote an article in the Telegraph the other day about Court action. It appears he has gathered an eminent group of lawyers together, including those representing Gina Miller and the consensus, according to him, was that the law has been flouted. The big question is when will this action take place Bill, when?

I suspect if his case is as strong as believed, that an awful lot of politics is going on behind the scenes.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 17, 2019, 02:06:01 PM
Thanks KC and Caller - something may be afoot  ;)

DT just now :-

''Grassroots Tories believe they are just weeks away from triggering a little-known process that could help to bring down Theresa May. Party chairmen are circulating a petition calling for the party's National Convention, which represents the grassroots, to call an Extraordinary General Meeting to pass a vote of no confidence in Mrs May, the Tory leader.

If the petition motion is signed by more than 65 association chairmen,  the party is obliged to hold the meeting. So far between 40 and 50 party chairmen have signed it, and the threshold could be passed as early as next week
.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/16/local-conservative-chairmen-planning-no-confidence-vote-theresa/

Please please   :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on April 17, 2019, 08:52:05 PM
It's all pretty desperate stuff Roger.

Also pretty desperate to learn that Amber Rudd is considering putting herself forward as party leader. That'll impress Tory members - not!

I see the treasurer of the party, who has a few bob, is having to fund party canvassing as donors have walked away.

Interesting to note that pollsters are tipping the Brexit party to be there or thereabouts to win most seats in the EU parliament if voting goes ahead in the UK.

Meanwhile, Macron has been exposed as backing a warlord with troops on the ground in Libya against both UN and EU official policy and has angered the Italians again. Looks like it's going to backfire on him politically and because of what may happen in Libya. Gotta love the French, haven't you, I wonder what EU they belong to?

Meanwhile, over to Labour, the shadow justice secretary, a Corbyn ally no less,has finally admitted making anti-Semitic remarks after film of him doing so finally came to light. He had denied doing so up until now. Apparently, he will not be sacked. Think about this. He is deputy justice secretary. If he was Justice Secretary, he could be in the position of reporting himself to Police to see if he has committed an offence, what a mad, f****d World we live in. He should hang his head in shame and resign. But's it's Labour and Labour don't care about racism against Jews. They seem to actually promote it by their lack of action.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 21, 2019, 05:35:15 AM
Caller, as you say, the Brexit Party are poised to do well in the new EU elections  ;)

''The EU will end up with 50 “disruptive and resentful” British MEPs if it forces the country to take part in elections to the European Parliament next month, Liam Fox has warned. In an interview with The Telegraph, the pro-Brexit International Trade Secretary pointed out that the parliament, which is due to elect the next European Commission president later this year, “will have an effect on the formation of the next commission.” “The last thing our European partners want are 50 disruptive and resentful UK MEPs,” he added.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/20/eu-will-end-50-angry-disruptive-meps-forces-uk-hold-mep-elections/

And Brexit troubles rumble on . . .

Ken Clarke is one of my favourite Politicians (despite Brexit) - here, the redoubtable Bernard Ingham, (Mrs Thatcher's fella), puts KC in his place on an oft repeated claim :-

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6942569/Margaret-Thatchers-former-press-secretary-savages-Ken-Clarkes-claim-vote-stay-EU.html

. . . and ''Annunziata Rees-Mogg has slammed Britain's broken politics and 'confused' leadership at a rally for the Brexit Party in Nottingham. Ms Rees-Mogg, the sister of Tory Brexiteer Jacob, said he fully supports her decision to stand for a different party and says the pair 'get on extremely well'. Speaking at the event alongside leader Nigel Farage, Ms Rees-Mogg, who has twice stood unsuccessfully for the Conservatives, said: 'I think our politics is broken. 'It's been very clear that we have got a Remainer parliament trying very ineffectually to represent the Leave vote. 'We need Leave representatives to fight the corner of our democracy.' ''

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6942811/Annunziata-Rees-Mogg-slams-Britains-broken-political-system.html

. . .  and ''. . . as British politics plunges further into crisis, The Mail on Sunday has asked 800 of these loyal foot soldiers just what they think of the disastrous Brexit stalemate – and of Theresa May’s leadership''.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6943375/Heart-soul-Tory-party-reveal-cries-exasperation-pain.html
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 22, 2019, 05:06:26 AM
Please GO Theresa   >:(    It won't be a moment too soon   :o

''A vote on Theresa May's future among the party's grassroots supporters which could hasten her departure from office is just weeks away after enough local party chairmen signed a petition supporting it. The National Conservative Convention, which represents Tory volunteers, now has a duty under the party's constitution to call an "extraordinary general meeting" to allow a no confidence vote in Mrs May to be held.

Any vote would be unprecedented and would put pressure on Conservative MPs to change the leadership rules and allow them to hold an early vote on Mrs May's future which could see her being forcibly removed from office. Campaigners said the scale of support was “a clear expression of just how disillusioned, despairing and disappointed the Conservative grassroots have become”. They said that any vote “will add weight to moves by the 1922 Committee to change their procedure, to allow for a further confidence vote in the Prime Minister by MPs”.

MPs on the executive of the 1922 committee of backbench Tory MPs are meeting on Tuesday to discuss an early vote, rather than waiting until December as they have to under current rules
.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/21/exclusive-tories-just-weeks-no-confidence-vote-mayafter-local/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on April 25, 2019, 12:50:48 PM
So it's back to the drawing board on this one . . . .  :o  bugger  ::)

''Another Brexiteer coup against Theresa May fizzled out as the party’s senior backbenchers decided not to change the party’s rules to allow an early leadership challenge against her. However, Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the party’s 1922 committee, said that it was time Mrs May set a date for her departure by giving a “clear roadmap” for her exit from 10 Downing Street.

Under the party's rules, Mrs May cannot be challenged until December after winning a no confidence vote last December . . .
.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/24/senior-tories-demand-theresa-may-set-clear-roadmap-departure/

Good ole' Annie :-

''Ann Widdecombe is kicked out of the Conservatives after announcing she will stand as a Brexit Party MEP candidate. The former Shadow Home Secretary made the explosive announcement yesterday that she would stand for the pro-Leave Brexit Party. Hours later, she received a letter from the party telling her that her membership would be cancelled.

Miss Widdecombe told the Mail: 'I was standing for the Brexit Party, so it was implicit that I was going. It’s a rule, so I knew it was coming
'.''

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6956973/Ann-Widdecombe-kicked-Conservatives.html
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 09, 2019, 10:00:22 AM
''An excruciating look at how the EU scorned Theresa May’s Brexit efforts''.

''Never at any time in the long months . . . did the Europeans look to be anything other than in total control. From the high ground of 27-nation unity, they looked down on a British government that couldn’t even unify itself and, despite the high stakes, they were frequently moved to derisive laughter. As they saw it, they had no need to out-negotiate Britain – the British government was doing too good a job of that itself.

For some viewers this will have provoked outrage: sniffy Europeans scoffing at the chaos of British politics, blithely refusing to budge on British demands. Others will have seen it as sad, painful and humiliating, an inevitable consequence of leaving and not being prepared to play the EU at its own game.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/0/brexit-behind-closed-doors-review-excruciating-look-eu-scorned/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 11, 2019, 12:45:59 PM
And now some good news - I will be in the UK to vote in the elections for the European Parliament  ;)

I'd guess I'm not alone but IMO it's not appropriate for Juncker, Tusk, Barnier and Verhofstadt to be involving themselves in the elections. Verhofstadt himself actually campaigning with the Lib Dems  :o

''The European parliament’s Brexit coordinator, Guy Verhofstadt, has warned that the UK’s decision to leave the EU has already done “far more damage than has ever been predicted”. Appearing alongside the Liberal Democrat leader, Vince Cable, at a European election campaign event in Camden, north London, on Friday morning, the leader of the Alliance for Liberals and Democrats for Europe said he wanted to send a message to people on the continent to “never repeat Brexit again”.''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/10/guy-verhofstadt-never-repeat-brexit-again-mep-warns

The process seems to have hit a vacuum pending these elections. If the Tories get a momentous thrashing maybe Mrs May will finally GO !
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on May 11, 2019, 10:10:59 PM
Just as an aside, I see that Grieve is now being faced with de-selection after losing the no confidence vote. I think the vote takes place at the end of this month.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 12, 2019, 05:57:03 AM
Hello Caller - I'd be very sorry indeed if Dominic Grieve is deselected. A talented and experienced Guy, he's one of my favourites due not least to his contribution to 'Rumpole of the Bailey' as the Technical Advisor  :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 12, 2019, 06:11:27 AM
And the music goes round and round oh oh and it comes back here  ::) (or similar). Hang on, isn't this where we were when David Cameron felt it essential to call the FIRST Referendum ??   :-\

''Poll surge for Farage sparks panic among Tories and Labour.
Support for the Conservatives at the European elections slumps to 11%, less than a third of what the Brexit party is polling
.

Senior Tory and Labour politicians have issued frantic calls to their voters to back them in next week’s European elections after a new poll showed support for Nigel Farage’s Brexit party had soared to a level higher than for the two main parties put together. The Opinium survey for the Observer places the Brexit party on 34%, when people were asked how they intended to vote on 23 May, with Labour slipping to 21% and the Conservatives collapsing to just 11%. Ominously for Theresa May, support for the Tories at the European elections is now less than a third of that for Farage’s party, and below that for the Liberal Democrats, who are on 12%.

The poll suggests the Brexit party, launched only last month, is now on course for a thumping victory that Farage will, MPs fear, use to back his argument that the UK must leave the EU immediately without a deal
.''

Headlining in many Papers today . . . . .

A passing comment - I hope Mr Verhofstadt continues to campaign for the Lib Dems - that'll ensure the election of The Brexit Party  ;)  Important to note that one European Nation already has a Comedian as Leader, so all things are possible.   8)


Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 23, 2019, 12:39:34 PM
A poor result for the Tories and Mrs May in these elections for the EU Parliament, is a foregone conclusion. Eurosceptic votes can also be expected in some other EU Nations. Will the EU reflect these changing positions in the future ? Probably not  :-\

In the Telegraph today:-

''The election of 170 part-time dilettantes from the eurosceptic Left and Right might shake up French or Italian politics. It will change absolutely nothing in the governing structure of the EU. Trumpian ideologue Steve Bannon deems the European Parliament vote this week to be “one of the most important elections ever” but he has never tangled in earnest with Germano-European deep state. The EU’s permanent machinery will reassert iron control once the noise has subsided.''

That's the problem and explains why the UK is in Brexit mode - the 'deep' EU has a life of it's own . . . .

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/05/22/no-european-election-ever-deflects-eu-deep-state-one-inch-rigid/


Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on May 27, 2019, 12:50:42 PM
The Brexit Party has 28 MEPs so far in the European elections with 31.6% of the vote.
The Lib Dems have 15 MEPs so far with 20.3% of the vote.
The Labour party has 10 MEPs with 14.1% o the vote so far.
The Conservatives have 3 MEPs with 9.1% of the vote so far - which is less than the Greens, who have 7 MEPs and 12.1% of the vote.


BBC (https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/crjeqkdevwvt/the-uks-european-elections-2019)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on May 27, 2019, 02:54:27 PM
It's worth noting where those votes have been picked up from. Most are very regional, bar the Brexit Party and will certainly cause huge concern to Tories and Labour. Both were wiped out in their traditional heartlands. That will cost both dear in a GE if those votes don't go back, as they did after the referendum. But once bitten, twice shy...…

It does seem that the results can be interpreted in whatever way suits your leaning. That's why what happens next is so important. If Labour now back a 2nd referendum, they will break in two, likewise for the Tories, if they, as I suspect they will, elect a 'compromise' leader- they'll be toast.

It was interesting to hear Heidi Allen of UK change or whatever they called themselves, stating this morning that the success of the Brexit party means nothing as MP's won't accept a no-deal Brexit. That's the attitude, girl, stuff the electorate, we're in charge, when it's precisely this attitude that is behind all the disaffection as MP's ignore their constituents, which especially applies to her and her ilk, as quitting their parties left them without the representation they voted for.

 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on May 27, 2019, 05:12:41 PM
Anti-brexit parties win more votes than pro-brexit parties so yes its clear what the electorate wants.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on May 27, 2019, 07:02:31 PM
Not really.

What's lurking in those Tory and Labour votes - leave or remain?

You also need to consider the turnout and compare it to the referendum. There's a big difference and there are a lot of very disgruntled voters out there. For example Hartlepool dropped from 65% turnout in 2016 to 25% on Thursday. That's what happens if you shaft people.

Plus Brexit party are the new kids in town and still growing, let's see what happens when they reveal their policies and after they have won the Peterborough by-election.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 30, 2019, 01:12:54 PM
''Boris Johnson victim of 'plot to stop Brexit' as he faces criminal trial over Leave campaign

Britain’s top prosecutor has been urged to prevent the courts being “abused” in a plot to stop Brexit after Boris Johnson was told he could face trial over his part in the Leave campaign. The Tory leadership contender has been summonsed to appear before a judge to answer three charges of misconduct in a public office following a complaint that he “lied” about how much Britain gives to the EU. Marcus Ball, a Remain-backing campaigner, took out a private prosecution against Mr Johnson, claiming he was wrong to say during the EU referendum campaign that Britain gives £350 million a week to Brussels.''

Crikey if Mr Ball is going to sue every Politician who exaggerates, makes a mistake or a misleading statement, he's gonna be VERY busy   ;)  Time to move on from that one methinks.

Maybe the figure should have been GBP 250,000,000 a week -  ??? I don't suppose it made a jot of difference to anyone . . .

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/29/boris-johnson-victim-plot-stop-brexit-faces-criminal-trial-leave/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on May 30, 2019, 01:30:58 PM
With the major Parties locked in splits from the start - it's been certain that to get Brexit through the HoC would be 'problematic' in the extreme.

The way forward now ? Hopefully the Tories will elect a Brexit minded Leader. IF there is still a majority for Brexit amongst General Election voters, that could then deliver a Tory/Brexit Party coalition Government over a Lib Dem 'Remainer' coalition opposition. OR, looking down the barrel of a General Election gun  ::)  enough 'Remainer' Tory MP's might go with a Brexit flow to save their seats?

For sure, the Tory Govt. now needs STRONG and IMAGINATIVE Leadership . . .

I see the EU are as helpful as ever in their comments and am reminded of this posted by Hector some time ago - worth watching indeed. Love it  ;D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63IcW4eo4uM
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on May 30, 2019, 03:51:48 PM
There's been a lot of research done on the EU results now.

It's hard to see the Lib Dems repeating their success. They have probably reached the zenith of their popularity, not just because they hoovered up votes from Labour in London and one or two other areas, but because elsewhere their vote account only increased only marginally, to small to make a breakthrough in normal elections.

The Greens seem to have cause for genuine optimism.

No point talking about the Tories as that's well documented.

But the evidence suggests that in Wales, Labour Brexit supporters switched to The Brexit Party. Maybe there should be two labour parties - one called 'Traditional Labour and the other called, 'Labour for the London Luvvies'. My London based friends feel Labour no longer represents them, which would explain the numbers voting for the Brexit Party there, or not bothering to vote.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on June 07, 2019, 11:19:02 PM
''Boris Johnson has won a High Court challenge against a court summons to face allegations of misconduct in a public office over claims made during the referendum campaign that the EU receives £350 million a week from the UK. The claims were disputed during the referendum campaign and voters could choose to ignore them, the High Court heard earlier. Giving the court's decision, Lady Justice Rafferty, sitting with Mr Justice Supperstone, said: "We are persuaded, Mr Darbishire, so you succeed, and the relief that we grant is the quashing of the summonses." Lawyers for Boris Johnson told senior judges the MP, who is currently the front runner in the Conservative Party leadership contest, he denied acting improperly or dishonestly when campaigning to leave the EU ahead of the historic 2016 vote.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/07/boris-johnson-has-misconduct-allegations-quashed-high-court/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on June 11, 2019, 07:28:13 PM
As the Tory leadership campaigns get under way, various EU luminaries are chirping in about  'no renegotiation' of the Withdrawal Agreement - it comes over to me as being arrogant and self righteous.

I'm surprised that no-one UK side is making the point that, signed up or not, EVERYONE involved was fully aware that anything agreed would have to be confirmed by the House of Commons and as we all know it wasn't ! So what are they bleating about ?

As for the Tory leadership campaign, why do we have to be subjected to a 6 week campaign, particularly in the circumstances - weeks would have been long enough as the MP's have seen the candidates in action and know them well  8)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on June 12, 2019, 12:14:42 PM
I find this hard to believe but good to see   ;)

''Boris Johnson is the only Tory leadership candidate capable of beating both Jeremy Corbyn and the Brexit Party, according to new polling which suggests he would win a crushing 140-seat majority for the Conservatives at the next general election if he was elected Prime Minister.

The findings come as Mr Johnson launches his leadership campaign on Wednesday with the message that “delay means Corbyn”, warning Conservative colleagues the party will ‘kick the bucket’ if Brexit isn’t delivered by October 31
.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-course-140-seat-majority-general-election-becomes/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Coolkorat on June 12, 2019, 04:15:46 PM
Boris knows that all he needs to do is sit it out and the European economy will spiral into recession. The reason the EU are pushing so hard is to press everything through before the crap hits the fan!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on June 12, 2019, 06:10:58 PM
I hesitated to reply but feel I have to do now. Maybe the Brexiteers could understand that the UK wanted to get out and therefore UK started the negotiations in a not too good position? There is a deal and why should EU start over every time a new government is in place in the UK?

Furthermore I do not like that the me, me attitude is starting to show. I would like to remind everybody that the EU consists of 508.450.856 persons including UK with 64.875.165 persons.  Wishing recession and bad times for 443.575.691 individuals does not look human IMHO. Think 99,999999% do not have any influence at all so why wish them a bad future is something I cannot understand.

Anyway I will stop again reacting to this topic as tried to look at both sides and the best solution but read only UK side so leave it to the British now. Have finally given up to reason.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Coolkorat on June 12, 2019, 07:29:53 PM
Robert, I completely understand and respect your viewpoint and I do not, in any way, wish a recession and hardship on anyone. The entire world is staring down the barrel of recession and the impact may be as great (or greater) on the UK as on mainland Europe. This is not a uniquely British view; this is CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/03/germany-could-enter-a-recession-in-2019-economist-says.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/03/germany-could-enter-a-recession-in-2019-economist-says.html)

My own view is that the UK would be better to remain and reform than leave, but this is entirely dependent upon having an EU prepared to adapt to the times, and the current non-elected leaders seem determined to continue on their own (very federalist) agenda. The whole issue of Brexit would have been killed-off if the EU had announced a 'Lisbon2' to review and update, giving the UK and others chance to reform the elements of Lisbon that failed the block in the face of the financial crisis. Instead they played Cameron and pushed the UK into the referendum. I still think the opportunity is there for them to announce a 'Lisbon2' and give all EU members a chance to review and update the mechanism of the EU to balance the effects of the Euro and the debt situation in countries like Italy which are leaning further right and looking at shadow currencies (see https://www.ft.com/content/7a5c20b8-8b9d-11e9-b8cb-26a9caa9d67b (https://www.ft.com/content/7a5c20b8-8b9d-11e9-b8cb-26a9caa9d67b). But with the federalists in charge, there is no chance.

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on June 12, 2019, 11:15:03 PM
deleted - won't show all message
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on June 12, 2019, 11:21:35 PM
Deleted. Maybe message too long, but when posted, text is lost.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on June 13, 2019, 08:45:00 AM
Robert, I am more anti-eu as it stands, than simply pro-Brexit.

Britain is entitled to change it's negotiating position, even if too many MP's try to block it. We actually deserve more respect than has been shown by the EU, because whilst they try to belittle and humiliate us, aided by our incompetence of a despised and now ousted regime, we are helping to keep the EU safe, we are patrolling the EU's borders right now, we offer security, we have economic clout, we have an important and ongoing role to play in Europe, if not the EU.

If the EU really do play hard ball - and it's hard to imagine them not, in view of the woeful stance taken by the remainers at the helm under May, then so be it. But please don't complain if we actually do the same.

And if anyone hasn't noticed, even the irascible, illegally promoted and obnoxious Selmayr, Merkels Rottweiler, representing Germany and no-one else, who is deputy to drunkard, has fallen out with Barnier and is making more friendly gestures to the UK now, which does make me wonder what is exactly happening behind the scenes? Our own politicians will be too stupid to notice this.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on June 13, 2019, 10:57:28 AM
No reaction, just a question if I may?

Did anybody see the movie Brexit, The Uncivil War? I just did and if I were British I would have a lot of questions how this "game" was played.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on June 13, 2019, 11:18:12 AM
Wishing recession and bad times for 443.575.691 individuals does not look human IMHO.

Who has done that, Robert?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on June 13, 2019, 11:29:16 AM
I personally feel that we are heading for a Brexit with no deal. I don't think that is necessarily the best way but having watched the last 3 years between us and the EU, I can see no other option. They (the EU side) feel they have the upper hand (and maybe they do) so are uwilling to change. That's their choice and from their position it makes sense. And clearly they want us to stay in the EU. However, the UK has made a choice to leave the EU and whatever divisions there are in the UK at the moment and whatever shenanigans the Labour Party and Lib Dems get up to, eventually we (the UK) will leave the EU. The EU is looking after itself (rightly so) and it's clear to me that the EU prefer to have us in a weak position in the future. That sure seems more important to them than us leaving as good friends. That is their choice. Up to them. Our choice is to leave. The more the EU side play hard ball, the easier it will be for our parliamentarians to agree to a hard Brexit (no deal). And as I said earlier, I think that's where we are heading. So be it.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on June 13, 2019, 11:31:56 AM
No reaction, just a question if I may?

Did anybody see the movie Brexit, The Uncivil War? I just did and if I were British I would have a lot of questions how this "game" was played.

I haven't seen it, but it's drama/fiction, isn't it?

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Robert on June 13, 2019, 11:36:36 AM
No reaction, just a question if I may?

Did anybody see the movie Brexit, The Uncivil War? I just did and if I were British I would have a lot of questions how this "game" was played.

I haven't seen it, but it's drama/fiction, isn't it?

Yes, drama and fiction but based upon actual facts. Interesting to watch for both sides. It is about manipilating through social media.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on June 13, 2019, 02:29:34 PM
Caller - that's an interesting comment re: Martin Selmayr . . . . .
         
and . .  ''Britain is entitled to change it's negotiating position'' - absolutely. I posted earlier re. the 'WA', ''signed up or not, EVERYONE involved was fully aware that anything agreed would have to be confirmed by the House of Commons and as we all know it wasn't ! So what are the EU bleating about ?''

Robert - ''UK started the negotiations in a not too good position?'' - IMO no more so than the EU, there being serious implications for EU nations after Brexit. Maybe the EU should have responded with some promise of reform for other disaffected Members. Re. the Uncivil War - based on some facts no doubt. But a dramatisation ?

Alfie - ''it's clear to me that the EU prefer to have us in a weak position in the future. That sure seems more important to them than us leaving as good friends.'' Many agree 100% with Dr Alice Weidel, speaking in the Bundestag
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63IcW4eo4uM  The EU has had an approach from the start which was bad for US and THEM.

Come on Boris  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Coolkorat on June 13, 2019, 04:59:21 PM
Quote
Come on Boris

I think Boris may not be what he appears to be: I think many people will be disappointed with him, and all his chest-thumping promises may be a 'false-flag' exercise (knowing that you can promise anything in an election for leader of the Tory party; you can lie and deceive, and Trump has proved how effective this is. No need to be in any way accurate, and it is not a party mandate you may be held to account for. Pie in the sky is completely plausible).

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on June 13, 2019, 08:12:51 PM
I think Boris is exactly as he appears. A terrible foreign secretary who endangered 1 of his subjects with his incorrect comments, a terrible London mayor who squandered millions on the vanity garden bridge project and some never used water cannons. He now promises to spend £8bn on tax cuts for those long suffering people earning morre than £50k pa. Man of the people my arse.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Anton on June 13, 2019, 09:52:14 PM
It is about manipilating through social media.

I think Boris may not be what he appears to be (...) all his chest-thumping promises may be a 'false-flag' exercise

Man of the people my arse.

Robert, Coolkorat, Teessider, let Caller and his buddies in the forum relish the delusion that they are the only ones politically cunning enough to see how special and different are "their" populist leaders, compared to any other populist leader who infested the history of democracy since its dawn until now. Let them relish the delusion that "their" populist leaders are not at all sheer demagogues like all other populist leaders, but highly serious and professional statesmen perfectly able to cope with all kind of situations, in particular crisis situations involving millions of people... Can you see Caller and his buddies finally facing reality in the video below (excerpts from the 1957 film "A face in the crowd")? They don't look so happy and self-assured any more.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zzCQLyNnIg
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on June 13, 2019, 10:16:17 PM
I think Boris is exactly as he appears. A terrible foreign secretary

I agree with Teessider on that and I think BJ will be a very poor prime minister if he wins the Tory leadership race. But if he wins and gets us out of the EU quickly and then resigns or retires, I'll be happy.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on June 14, 2019, 11:58:25 PM
a terrible London mayor who squandered millions on the vanity garden bridge project and some never used water cannons. He now promises to spend £8bn on tax cuts for those long suffering people earning morre than £50k pa. Man of the people my arse.

I disagree he was a terrible London Mayor, living and/or working in London for most of his reign, as I did. He beat the stronger Labour party twice, which was no mean achievement and did many good things. He also had charisma, which as head of one of the World's greatest cities, is really needed and something Khan suffers from, as he has none.

I agree with those tax cuts, so will many London Labour luvvies, who will benefit, as I would have done. Paying 40% tax on what in London, is an average wage was pretty unfair. Do you know how much tube drivers are paid?

As the campaign moves towards it's finale, I am sure other pledges will be revealed that balance these cuts, as it seems that he intends to promote a low tax / high spending economy. But the balance needs to be in there somewhere.

And I agree with Alfie, I don't think Johnson is looking at the long term, if he becomes PM. I think it's mainly a Brexit thing. Personally, as I have said previously, I would back Raab, but that's not going to happen, although if Johnson does get in, I can see him getting the Brexit role again. I would take Johnson ahead of Hunt or Gove.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on June 15, 2019, 10:27:27 AM
Actually, I may not have benefitted from those tax cuts after all - glad I'm out of to be honest - now I just pay 20%

Humorous article about the French media and Johnson in The Spectator, I was quite amazed that a jailed and disgraced former Labour MP is a regular contributor to one.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/frances-horror-at-the-prospect-of-prime-minister-boris/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on June 18, 2019, 12:36:48 PM
This is quite amusing - from Sky news in Australia.

This guy really say's it as it is.

https://www.facebook.com/raheemkassam/videos/363177794556424/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on June 21, 2019, 12:22:01 AM
 OMG 1 of these two will be the next pm.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on June 21, 2019, 11:23:28 AM
Cheer up Teess. From those 2 pics I'd opt for BJ and his 'bulldog' look. Maybe he'll bite a few ankles in Brussels  ;)  I'd love that   ;D

In all seriousness, we could do with another Churchill to lead us out of Theresa May's mess. Is that BJ ? I've no idea - but I'd just mention that when Churchill took charge in 1939 (?) it was despite being widely decried for indiscretions and massive mistakes in times before. We'll have to see what BJ can do  8)

The mood around Brexit has changed dramatically since the elections for the European Parliament and the Farage landslide. Brexit seems back ON, with a vengeance, since TM's fall  :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on June 21, 2019, 10:44:14 PM
BDS = Brexit Derangement syndrome Boris Derangement syndrome!  ;D

Courtesy of The Spectator.

The Times is almost as bad as the beeb in their anti-Johnson stance. Maybe they envy the copy he sells for the Telegraph?

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Teessider on June 24, 2019, 11:02:32 PM
I heard the tory leadership race described as "the worst health secretary ever vs the worst foreign secretary ever to replace the worst pm ever".
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dereklev on June 25, 2019, 06:12:31 AM
I heard the tory leadership race described as "the worst health secretary ever vs the worst foreign secretary ever to replace the worst pm ever".

That sounds about right.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on June 25, 2019, 07:34:55 PM
I heard the tory leadership race described as "the worst health secretary ever vs the worst foreign secretary ever to replace the worst pm ever".

 ;D

I like that!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on June 28, 2019, 10:19:41 AM
And the next general election could see Johnson and Corbyn as potential PMs - the worst choice ever? Farage to the rescue, perhaps.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on July 07, 2019, 03:06:47 PM
DT last Thursday :-

''The EU is a sham Democracy and it's pitiful new Leaders are the proof

Thank you, Eurocrats, for being yourselves. The best cure for Europhilia is always to observe the EU’s big beasts at their unguarded worst, wheeling and dealing in their natural habitat, unencumbered by any attachment to democracy, accountability or even basic morality.

The spectacle of the past few days made for compulsive watching: we witnessed rare footage of the secretive process that propels so many retreads and second-rate apparatchiks into positions of immense power in Brussles and Frankfurt, utterly disregarding public opinion
.''

Some points :-

. . . Ursula von der Leyen - Commission President - almost impossible to find anybody in Germany who has a good woed to say about her - Germany's weakest Minister - inquiries into a spending scandal in her department.

. . . Josep Borrell - Foreign Policy Chief - recently fined E30,000 for insider trading - ''his appointment will prove catastrophic''.

. . . Christine Lagarde - European Central Bank - embroiled in scandal over Bernard Tapie - neither an Economist or a Banker

. . . ''the EU's latest Leaders are hard-core Federalists and won't cut us any favours.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/03/eu-sham-democracy-pitiful-new-leaders-proof/

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: sfs on July 07, 2019, 10:42:12 PM
Thanks for sharing Roger, it beggers belief how these self centred Eurocrats act in such a revolting manner and revolting is what the citizens of Europe should be doing to stop these people in their tracks..........sickening.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on July 08, 2019, 04:19:47 AM
SFS - thank you and one is reminded of David Cameron's efforts to resist the appointment of the 'orrible Juncker now happily on his way  ;)  I might be accused of selective extracts - I was trying to give the drift - there is MUCH more in the same vein and I'll post the whole article later when I gain access.

Meantime, I can't quite get my head around this - the Greeks have now decisely elected a Conservative Govt against the purported anti-austerity Syrisa party - who later gave in to EU demands for austerity  -\ So to achieve longer term approval from the electorate, the new Govt will need to defy the EU more successfully with improved spending plans ? That looks like fun ! And more problems for the EU ?

''Overall unemployment has fallen from 28 per cent in 2013 to 18 per cent this year, while youth unemployment has dropped from more than 50 per cent to around 40 per cent. But it was not enough to convince Greek voters tired of living under the burden of high taxes and social security payments.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/07/07/greek-government-set-landslide-election-defeat-years-austerity/

Problems in Germany too . .

''Deutsche Bank has effectively called time on its global banking ambitions after it unveiled a much more radical than expected overhaul on Sunday. This will include setting up a "bad bank" stuffed with €74bn of toxic assets, closing down large units in its investment banking arm - including equities trading - and laying off about a fifth of its workforce. Following a supervisory board meeting in Germany at the weekend, the troubled bank said the drastic measures were needed to battle falling revenues and rising costs. The overhaul is expected to cost around €8bn.''

UUmmm €74bn of toxic assets - jeepers. Not revelling in that at all but just imagine 'Project Fear's' hullabaloo if that had been a UK Bank, (doubtless they have their own problems).

All is not well in this EU - that's for sure.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on July 08, 2019, 11:41:53 AM
I think that some of the reduction in unemployment on Greece is down to people moving abroad to work.

The Greek election isn't a surprise as Syrisa completely caved in to the EU and as a consequence are exactly where they were before the bail out deal with the EU was forced upon them. I doubt the new Govt. will change as the Greek establishment, including their 'powerful political families' sided with the EU against Syrisa, using their press and other influences to beat them. The question is what will the new PM actually do? I suspect the Greeks will be disappointed once more.

As for the selection of the new EU masters, assuming they are all rubber stamped by Parliament, just goes to prove that there is no accountability or democracy as claimed, and that the French / German axis rules supreme. It seems the selection of the new EU President has gone down particularly badly in Germany and two of the 4 nominees have (in effect) convictions against their name for corruption.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on July 08, 2019, 12:46:17 PM
SFS - here's the full DT article by Alistair Heath :-
The EU is a sham democracy, and its pitiful new leaders are the proof - July 2019 • 9:30pm

''The spectacle of the past few days has shown the EU’s big beasts at their unguarded worst. Thank you, Eurocrats, for being yourselves. The best cure for Europhilia is always to observe the EU’s big beasts at their unguarded worst, wheeling and dealing in their natural habitat, unencumbered by any attachment to democracy, accountability or even basic morality. The spectacle of the past few days made for compulsive watching: we witnessed rare footage of the secretive process that propels so many retreads and second-rate apparatchiks into positions of immense power in Brussels and Frankfurt, utterly disregarding public opinion.

Peeking into Europe’s dystopia was certainly the right medicine for pre-Brexit Britain, guaranteed to convert erstwhile moderates into raging Brexiteers as they looked on, aghast, at the shocking disconnect between elites and people.

Everything that is wrong with the EU was shamelessly on display: a Franco-German stitch-up; smaller countries being bulldozed, especially Eastern Europeans; a constitutional coup which sidelined the (useless) European Parliament; the fact that so many of the new generation of EU leaders have had brushes with the law that would have terminated their careers in the US or UK; their explicit commitment to a “United States of Europe” and a “European army” (about which we keep being lied to); and the singing of a national anthem we were promised wouldn’t exist when the European constitution was voted down.

For the past three years, the debate in Britain has missed the point: Brexiteers argue that we must leave because we voted to do so, rather than because the EU is bad; Remainers that we musn’t leave because it’s too risky, rather than because the EU is good. But we’ve forgotten what unites 65 per cent of the public, including many Remainers: a profound dislike of the EU as it actually is, of its preposterous schemes, its authoritarian nature, its commitment to harmonising and centralising everything.

At times like these, it is obvious that there is no – and can be no – European democracy. For that you would need a genuine demos – a people – and to give them real power – kratos, in Greek. But almost nobody feels primarily European, and the average Sicilian has little in common with a random Finn. There is a such a thing as a metaphysical, abstract Europe; but in practice, no workable common European nation. While the EU apes some of the rituals of democracy, they are a sinister sham, and will always be. The EU is a technocratic empire, and can be nothing else. We must either give up on centuries of democratic, inclusive political progress, or leave.

In any case, as imperial ruling classes go, Europe’s is pathetic. Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission president-designate, herself the daughter of a Eurocrat, has wasted many depressing years as German’s defence minister, presiding over a decrepit and underfunded Bundeswehr. A devastating parliamentary report earlier this year exposed planes that can’t fly and guns that don’t shoot. Fewer than a fifth of its helicopters are combat ready.

It is almost impossible to find anybody in Germany who has a good word to say about von der Leyen, her appointment a clear case of rewards for failure. “Our weakest minister”, one said. It gets worse: a parliamentary committee has launched an inquiry into a spending scandal in her department, relating to massive contracts awarded to consultants. But she supports a United States of Europe and an EU army, so what other qualifications are required?

Josep Borrell’s woes are equally recent, and haven’t prevented his nomination as foreign policy chief. Less than a year ago, as Socialist foreign minister in Spain, he was fined €30,000 (£26,900) for insider trading. The regulator ruled he had engaged in “a very serious violation” of securities law when he sold shares in Abengoa in 2015, “having privileged information on this company”. As champagne socialism goes, this takes some beating and he refused calls to resign. He also supports the disgusting clampdown on Catalonia, has made trouble over Gibraltar and agreed to set up a joint cybersecurity group with Russia last November – a move that won’t end well. Last but not least, he will be worse than useless on Iran: in an interview with Politico, he said: “Iran wants to wipe out Israel. Nothing new with that. You have to live with it.” His appointment will prove catastrophic
.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/03/eu-sham-democracy-pitiful-new-leaders-proof/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on July 13, 2019, 06:48:10 AM
''Boris Johnson has attacked the BBC for “conditioning” the public with “gloom and negativity” about the chances of a successful no-deal Brexit. The Tory leadership front-runner was accused by the BBC’s Andrew Neil of pursuing “mission impossible” in saying the UK could still trade tariff-free with the EU if it left without a deal on October 31.

(BJ) responded by accusing the BBC of bias in controlling the “mindset of people in this country”
''.

Allelleuh to that !

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/12/boris-johnson-attacks-bbc-conditioning-public-brexit-gloom/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on July 26, 2019, 07:16:51 AM
Here we go then  8)  BJ is PM and we'll have to see what he can do with Brexit.

Jivvy - I noticed your comment and of course, not everyone will like him  ;)

Myself I'm happy to see some POSITIVE rabble rousing instead of all the negative rabble rousing.

CAN DO ? What do you think ?
Title: Re: Brexit - Varadkar is wrong
Post by: Roger on July 28, 2019, 10:14:00 AM
I thought that this was a very enlightening article and I'm interested in other's thoughts about another aspect of EU tyranny.

''Recent days have presented a paradox in Anglo-Irish relations. Leo Varadkar, the Taioseach, and his deputy, Simon Coveney, reaffirmed their desire to be weaponised by Brussels in the EU’s determination to force a no-deal Brexit. Meanwhile, at Lord’s, England and Ireland played their first test match. England were bowled out for 85 by lunch on day one, causing a small earthquake, before recovering to win the match. The sweltering ground teemed throughout with Englishmen and Irishmen joking with each other and enjoying a shared culture in which the English were no longer inevitably the masters. It made one wonder what all the fuss was about the backstop.''  . . . .

''There are few more gratuitous acts in life than to torpedo an important and mutually beneficial friendship. With the British government anxious for good relations with our Irish cousins, Mr Varadkar should urgently look for ways to build upon what we share, and not to wreck that relationship on the orders of his new imperial masters.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/27/varadkar-wrong-disregard-ancient-ties-britain-ireland/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Thaiwolf on July 28, 2019, 10:56:04 AM
I think a united Ireland might be a good idea.  If Scotland want to go,  fine.  Let's call their bluffs.  Start building border posts on the Scotish border.
The english taxpayer has been subsidising these territories for decades.
While we're at it pull out of Nato,  we are tired of propping up Europe's defence. 
Let the world see how important this insignificant little island really is. 
Time to play hardball Boris.
Title: Re: Brexit - Varadkar is wrong
Post by: Roger on July 29, 2019, 06:37:26 AM
The Irish problem is difficult - Varadkar and Brussels carefully turned it into an obstacle. IMO this DT review is an excellent insight. BJ visits N. Ireland this week so watch his space !

Varadkar can blame Britain all he likes – but he is the real threat to peace

Varadkar . . . ''gambled, and exhorted the EU to take the hardest line possible. Before the UK and EU could negotiate their future relationship, he insisted, the border question must be decided. Never mind that this was nonsensical and everybody knew the border could only be fixed in a future trade agreement. With Varadkar’s connivance, Brussels weaponised the Northern Irish border – and with it the peace process – to lock the UK into a customs union and a colonial status in which we would have to follow EU laws. It is easy to see why this approach tempted Varadkar and his allies in Brussels. It suits them very well to keep the UK tied to European laws. It must also have been hugely enjoyable for a young Taoiseach, and his deputy, Simon Coveney, to lord it over Ireland’s former imperial masters.
 
Books will be written about why Britain allowed Ireland and the EU to abuse the peace process in this way. My judgment is that Theresa May liked and wanted the backstop. She believed she had succeeded in splitting the EU’s fabled “four freedoms” – of goods, services, capital and people – by remaining in a customs territory with the EU while allowing Britain to control immigration. But this misunderstood the meaning of Brexit. . . . .

Varadkar has sought to impose humiliating terms on Ireland’s larger and more powerful neighbour. He has tried to turn a bilateral peace process between the UK and Ireland into a political standoff between the UK and the EU. And he has abused the Good Friday Agreement for his own ends, while shamelessly accusing Brexit supporters of endangering the peace process. Under Theresa May, the UK almost succumbed. But now Boris Johnson is holding firm. When he visits Northern Ireland this week he should not be shy in pointing out who is risking a no-deal outcome and a hard border in Ireland. It is not the United Kingdom, but Leo Varadkar.
''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/28/varadkar-can-blame-britain-likes-real-threat-peace/

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on July 29, 2019, 07:01:48 AM
Hi TW. Re. Scotland, many Brits feel just the same - if the Scots want out, then so be it. As old Friends though, let's be nice and let them go. But IMO, the Scots will never vote for it.

A united Ireland looks more than unlikely to me - maybe Ireland should join the Commonwealth or even, leave the Euro and the EU too  ;D  That'd make it all easier  ;)

As far as NATO goes - the USA and UK need to insist that Germany and others pay their full share but I can't agree it'd be a good idea to leave.

Hardball's good ! But as yet, we Brexiteers have no substantial progress we can rely on . . . .  I do wonder what K-F's from the EU think about what's going on now   8)
 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: KiwiCanadian on July 29, 2019, 07:19:56 AM
" I do wonder what K-F's from the EU think about what's going on now "

As I am not from the EU but a Kiwi,
I can remember when Britain told us in the commonwealth, basically saying WE are joining the EU  and to do this we don't need you anymore. In New Zealand & Australia it was felt as a kick in the guts as we were looked on as the bread basket of Britain. This caused a mini recession that took a while to recover from.
I dont think a lot of people understood how bad this was for our farming communities. NZ & Australia had been exporting produce in refrigerated ships to the UK since the late 1800's for over 50 yrs  and got a kick in the guts.

 All I can say is the time is right, BOJO & Nigel Farage need to hold firm and tell Brussels to F Off.

KC
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on July 29, 2019, 03:00:10 PM
I think a united Ireland might be a good idea.
Ireland leaving the EU would be better, TW. Backstop issue solved. :)

If Scotland want to go,  fine.  Let's call their bluffs.  Start building border posts on the Scotish border.
Not all Scots want independence from the UK. Perhaps they can have a referendum on a county by county basis, or a village by village basis or even a house by house basis.

The english taxpayer has been subsidising these territories for decades.
Don't forget the North Sea oil, TW. The UK gets a lof of income from that and I'm sure Scotland would claim it as their own if they got independence.

While we're at it pull out of Nato,  we are tired of propping up Europe's defence. Let the world see how important this insignificant little island really is.
The US is the big boy in NATO, not the UK, and don't forget, we are part of Europe. However, the EU might get its own military force in the not too distant future. Anyway, it's better to have military allies than not to have them.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Thaiwolf on July 29, 2019, 03:31:12 PM
Roger re NATO. Who is going to challenge Britain whilst we have Trident and the USA as best, best mates. Most European disputes have been internecine. Why should we defend Europe's Eastern border whilst Germany is cheerfully buying all its gas from Russia?

Pull out , USA and Canada appreciate us - the United States of Europe do not. Time to reach them a lesson !!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Alfie on July 31, 2019, 02:09:44 PM
Being "best, best mates" with the USA means being a poodle to the US. They only want "friends" who agree with them.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: dam12641 on July 31, 2019, 07:30:43 PM
Speaking of best mates........

The Irish are finally admitting how damaging a no deal Brexit would be for them.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1159924/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Ireland-no-deal-Boris-Johnson-Leo-Varadkar-backstop-latest
They should have remembered who their real friends are and supported us in the negotiations with the EU politbureau.
(and I'm 1/2 Irish. "Only the good half as the Irish say".)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on August 06, 2019, 04:13:33 PM
Dam mentions Ireland who will be fully 'hoisted on their own petard' if no-deal goes through - serves them bl**dy right. I imagine Germany might be wondering what to do with all those Mercedes, BMW and Audi too. The EU should have helped us leave nicely as that lovely Dr Alice Weidel advised. Expect sparks to fly when the GBP 39 billion comes up for discussion. KC - yes we should be nice to the Kiwis again but NOT to those bl**dy Aussies  ;)  (unless we now happen to win the Ashes).

Alfie - I don't think we can expect any favours from the USA who are unreliable in Trump mode.
Robert - you OK ?

Not sure about this Cummings fella, I think he should have been kept in lower profile - nevertheless it seems Boris has the job in hand . . . . . or does he ?  Stone me things are happening !

''On Monday, Mr Cummings allegedly threatened Downing Street staff with the sack if they try to block no deal during a blistering attack on Remainer former cabinet ministers who he accused of ‘frustrating’ Brexit during their time in office. The former Vote Leave boss “absolutely tore into” former chancellor Philip Hammond and Greg Clark, the former business secretary, during the 7.55am meeting at Number 10, when he called on SpAds to detail the status of every government department’s no deal planning by Wednesday morning. “He basically said that Hammond and Clark had not only failed to prepare for no deal but actively blocked it,” said an insider.

A source close to Mr Cummings confirmed he had said Mr Hammond and Mr Clark “did not want the country to be ready for no deal for political purposes” and “neglected all sorts of things.” EU officials are now viewing the October EU summit in Brussels as the "no deal Brexit summit", whereas before they had expected EU-27 leaders to mull over another British request to extend the Article 50 deadline
.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/05/no-deal-brexit-now-expected-boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-sets/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: caller on August 06, 2019, 05:38:04 PM
I would treat much of what is written about Cummings with caution. It's all hearsay via 3rd parties and not verified. Angry civil servants who have been used as scapegoats by Hammond et al have already anonymously leaked how Hammond intervened with some and  stopped other preparations. It's very much in the new Governments interests to ensure this fact gets wider media coverage than initially reported. It all seems a game of double bluff at the moment and I wonder what Gove, who is working closely with Cummings is up to? But it's nice to have the cabinet all singing from the same hymn book for a change - for now.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: KiwiCanadian on August 06, 2019, 07:25:08 PM
. KC - yes we should be nice to the Kiwis again but NOT to those bl**dy Aussies  ;)  (unless we now happen to win the Ashes).

Thanks Roger,
I see that Mike Pompeo has just visited Awstrailia, trying to drum up support against China, cant trust them Aussies.

We need the UK to help take back NZ from the Chinese influence, its massive.  As the only country that NZ gives multiple entry visa's over a 5 yr term is China, go figure!  (Don't get me going).

Awstrailia the smallest continent, just left of 2 and a half big Islands in the Pacific.

KC
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Roger on August 06, 2019, 07:57:09 PM
Crikey KC ? We'll have to help you with that and I can eat lotsa Lambs legs and Aussie cricketers -  ;)

Here's more to worry about :-

''A no-deal Brexit will mean the EU’s negotiating strategy has failed but Brussels is already working to ensure the blame for the disorderly exit is pinned on Britain. No deal has never appeared more likely. The UK and the EU are entrenched in their red lines over the Irish border backstop ahead of the Brexit deadline of October 31.

Boris Johnson has ruled out any Brexit extension and Brussels insists it will not renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement. The EU is now working on the basis that no deal, which will bring economic harm and major disruption to both sides, will happen on Halloween. But who will carry the can for the expected failure of the last three years of painstaking negotiations?

Theresa May’s habitual surrender of the negotiating pen to the European Commission, which handled negotiations on behalf of the EU-27, and her backing of a deal MPs could not support means she is culpable. Brussels insisted that the Irish border issue be dealt with in the Withdrawal Agreement, arguing the divorce treaty, as opposed to talks on the future trading relationship, was the only way  to legally guarantee the border stayed invisible.

But that stance, and the failure to predict British sensibilities over Brussels’ tinkering with borders, ultimately doomed the talks and cost Mrs May her job. The backstop has now become totemic for Brexiteers and for the EU, which cannot abandon it without being seen to throw Ireland under the bus.

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, insists that no deal is entirely a British decision. Given the EU veteran’s legacy is at stake that is understandable as is his stance that the only way to avoid no deal is to agree the Withdrawal Agreement. British accusations that the EU’s inflexibility over the Irish border backstop is forcing a no deal cut little ice in Brussels or the capitals of the EU-27 at the moment. The idea the backstop is “undemocratic” after it was rejected three times by the House of Commons is also given short shrift. The EU-27 remains united behind the idea that a damaging no deal Brexit, which will harm economies in the EU as well as Britain, is the UK’s fault.

Britain is seen as an unreliable negotiating partner, an impression the elevation of the disliked Boris Johnson has done little to dispel. But Mr Barnier had one job; Brexit damage control. His task, as he frequently said, was to avoid the economic damage of the disorderly exit that appears increasingly inevitable. As no deal takes it toll in Ireland, on French fisherman and the Belgian economy, the temptation will grow among EU-27 leaders to point fingers at the