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Predictions: Coronavirus - The sun is the best disinfectant

tiggs · 19 · 389

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Offline tiggs

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Anyone wanna make a prediction to when things will get back to normal, the world what was getting smaller is now growing again as restrictions on travel are put in place, However, in China, which has been hit hardest by the Coronavirus outbreak, life is starting to return back to normal. Apple has reopened 38 of their 42 stores on the mainland and According to  forbes.com

 Wuhan which was the centre of the outbreak, and entirely quarantined to prevent the spread of the outbreak has just closed the last of their temporary Coronavirus hospitals. China was effected since November,  closed off from the outside world. but the media reports they got it under control, things normaly get worse before they get better. 

The sun is the best disinfectant - article below from mothership.sg February 6,

Prediction: Coronavirus likely to disappear in May as summer sun heats up China
as fast it has spread, the virus is also prone to disappearing just as quickly. The prediction that the virus could be gone by May 2020 has been made by two experts in Singapore, Assistant Professor Jyoti Somani and Professor Paul Ananth Tambyah, both from the National University of Singapore’s Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, who wrote about what to expect in a piece for CNA.

These are some of their reasons

1. Climatic conditions explain rapidity of virus spread

There is a seasonal pattern of novel coronavirus pneumonia that may be similar to that of influenza infection and SARS.

Come May, when summer kicks in and temperatures in China go up, the number of cases may fall sharply in a corresponding manner.

In temperate climates, the flu season usually starts in December with a peak in January or February, after which cases decrease.

Factors that affect infectiousness include the dryness of the air, ambient air temperature, and possibly, ultraviolet solar radiation.

This reinforces the old adage that the sun is the best disinfectant.

China and the United States are experiencing temperate climatic conditions now.

The seasonality of influenza and other respiratory viruses in temperate countries has been observed to be cyclical.

If conditions are not conducive, viruses cannot thrive, just like how SARS disappeared in the northern summer of 2003 when things got warm and has not reappeared significantly since.

The Cambodian health minister recently made a similar argument that the country’s hot weather is a deterrent for the virus to take root.

But in his case, he was roundly laughed at.

He might actually be right.

2. People in close proximity indoors during cold weather

Human factors may also contribute to the spread of influenza during the colder winters.

As people spend more time indoors, they are in closer contact with other persons.

Similar to other respiratory viruses such as influenza or the common cold (rhinovirus), this current novel coronavirus is also spread by large droplets of saliva or phlegm.

Moreover, respiratory droplets spread farther when the air is cold and dry.

3. Cold weather conducive for viruses to thrive

Studies have also shown that the “regular” coronavirus, which spreads the common cold, thrive in colder temperatures.

The viruses can survive on surfaces 30 times longer in places with a temperature of 6°C compared to those where the temperature is 20°C and humidity levels are high.

This could explain why Hong Kong and Singapore with their “intensive use of air-conditioning” — words used in the study — allowed the SARS virus to survive much longer than they would have in high temperatures and humidity.

This may be the reason why warm and humid Southeast Asian countries did not have SARS outbreaks.

4. Improvements in technology

The genetic sequence of this new type of severe pneumonia in Wuhan was shared relatively early.

Countries all over the world could develop fast and accurate tests in response.

Many labs in advanced countries, including Singapore, are already working on blood tests for rapid detection and studying the immune response to help vaccine development.
Virus might disappear only to reemerge

However, other factors might also come into play, and cause more harm than good.

By putting cities on lockdown, it tends to hurt them economically and there might be a rush to overcome the restrictions.

This could lead to the lockdown measures being prematurely lifted, and causing the virus to spread again.

Pharmaceutical companies might also drop the development of vaccines for the novel coronavirus if the outbreak runs its course by summer.

This would then lead to a lack of financial incentives for pharmaceutical companies to pursue new drugs and treatments.

So, don’t be surprised if the new coronavirus becomes yesterday’s news overnight and everything goes back to normal again.

Only for it to reemerge.
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Online dam12641

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Yes, seems credible scientifically (and it's also an optimist's view!).

The content below was from 'another forum' a couple of days ago.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESnA7XRXkAIThJQ?format=png&name=small

This very interesting finding hints at the potential seasonality of Coronavirus: community-to-community outbreak has so far been limited to “a narrow east-west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11°C and 47-79% humidity).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESm9RTRXQAACFGP?format=png&name=900x900


Offline tiggs

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Hi dam, thanks for the interesting links, BUT... no prediction from you as to when we will be back to normal

I heard the admin might give a prize to the nearest prediction, when it's all over. if were still here that is. maybe a hamper from nookie or something like that. so hamper is christmas time, that's my prediction. "CHRISTMAS " time.

We will be back to normal around then, "CHRISTMAS"  lets hope father xmas don't need a mask. ;D

Keep the forum alive - predictions guys ........................



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Online dam12641

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Late spring/early summer.

Whenever that is, given one's geographical location.

So for Europe & N America, all over by June.
(Canada/Scandinavia, a bit later ;))


Offline tiggs

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Late spring/early summer.

Whenever that is, given one's geographical location.

So for Europe & N America, all over by June.
(Canada/Scandinavia, a bit later ;))
Blimey that's wishfull thinking - hope you are right - we can get all back to normal - so early summer that's june.

TIGGS            December
DAM 12641   june

Keep the forum alive - predictions guys ........................
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Online Coolkorat

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I can't win it, but I'll predict October. I think we'll bounce back!


Offline tiggs

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I can't win it, but I'll predict October. I think we'll bounce back!
Hi CK things are going to get worse as in what we can do where we can go, i have reports of bars & pubs could be closed, travel reststicted,  14-day self-quarantine period for families, if any member of the household travels abroad. your local pyb will play a part.

thanks for the reply ok october & thanks for Keeping the forum alive. showing your apreciation to the admin for keeping the forum going ;D

TIGGS               December
DAM 12641      june
COOLKORAT   October

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Online jivvy

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If heat is a key factor  then July/August
One should never do wrong in return, nor mistreat any man, no matter how one has been mistreated by him.”
- Socrates


Offline tiggs

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If heat is a key factor  then July/August
hi jivvy, thanks for keeping the thread alive, july/august it is then.

as for other countries, France closes shops, restaurants, tells people to stay home - Spain goes under lockdown to fight coronavirus, - Apple to close retail stores worldwide, except Greater China, Verizon to close some U.S. stores - Trump takes coronavirus test, extends travel ban to Britain, Ireland.

TIGGS               December
DAM 12641      june
COOLKORAT   October
JIVVY                july/august

Keep the forum alive - predictions guys ........................
Appeasers believe that if you keep on throwing steaks to a tiger, the tiger will become a vegetarian.



Offline tiggs

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I'd like to think your right eagle3 the sooner the better, so MAY it is & thanks for keeping the thread going.

more news. UK to ban mass gatherings from next week, Philippine capital to impose night-time curfew over virus, Vietnam bars visitors from UK, Schengen states, while at home Thailand reports 32 new coronavirus cases, brings total to 114, their thinking of closing entertainment, bars and nightlife in Thailand. not decided yet.

TIGGS               December
DAM 12641      june
COOLKORAT   October
JIVVY                july/august
EAGLE3            May

Keep the forum alive - predictions guys ........................
Appeasers believe that if you keep on throwing steaks to a tiger, the tiger will become a vegetarian.


Offline tiggs

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c'mon guys only 4 replys, to temp you into making a prediction, i heard a whisper the hamper is off
& could be a "WORLD CRUISE" for the winner as to the nearest corect answer. HE! HE!  ;D

so what's been happening, Some 12 million people in the Philippine capital of Manila are now in near total lockdown,  Chaos gripped major US airports Sunday as Americans returning from coronavirus-hit European countries overwhelmed authorities attempting to process the surge
Cases top 152,000 worldwide, rise in SE Asia and Europe, All arrivals to Singapore from the Asean group of nations as well as Japan, Switzerland and the United Kingdom will have to self-isolate for two weeks, at this point bars and clubs here will not decided yet

TIGGS               December
DAM 12641      june
COOLKORAT   October
JIVVY                july/august
EAGLE3            May

Keep the forum alive - predictions guys ........................
Appeasers believe that if you keep on throwing steaks to a tiger, the tiger will become a vegetarian.



Offline tiggs

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November I recon  ::)
hiya Dylan_leo, thanks for keeping the thread alive & NOVEMBER it is. So 6 of us think we could be back to normal before christmas. all i want for xmas, is the virus to go away.

so what's been happening. New York City Schools Close; Illinois, Ohio to Shut Down Bars and Restaurants As cases surpass 3,000, states move to stem the spread by closing bars and restaurants. New York City announced it would close its public school system. As of Sunday evening, more than 3,200 people had tested positive for the coronavirus in the U.S and the death toll climbed to 62, according to data compiled by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.

TIGGS               December
DAM 12641      june
COOLKORAT   October
JIVVY                july/august
EAGLE3            May
DYLAN_LEO   November

Keep the forum alive - predictions guys ........................
Appeasers believe that if you keep on throwing steaks to a tiger, the tiger will become a vegetarian.


Online dam12641

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"so what's been happening. New York City Schools Close; Illinois, Ohio to Shut Down Bars and Restaurants As cases surpass 3,000, states move to stem the spread by closing bars and restaurants. New York City announced it would close its public school system. As of Sunday evening, more than 3,200 people had tested positive for the coronavirus in the U.S and the death toll climbed to 62, according to data compiled by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering."

All very interesting, but I think the below is way more important:

FTSE/DOW etc down by 35%.

We are sleepwalking into oblivion.

And before some keyboard warrior gets on his/her (ah! I remembered that!) high horse and accuses me of "Putting money over lives", I would just ask them to reflect on that before they say it.


Offline tiggs

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"so what's been happening. New York City Schools Close; Illinois, Ohio to Shut Down Bars and Restaurants As cases surpass 3,000, states move to stem the spread by closing bars and restaurants. New York City announced it would close its public school system. As of Sunday evening, more than 3,200 people had tested positive for the coronavirus in the U.S and the death toll climbed to 62, according to data compiled by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering."

All very interesting, but I think the below is way more important:

FTSE/DOW etc down by 35%.

We are sleepwalking into oblivion.

And before some keyboard warrior gets on his/her (ah! I remembered that!) high horse and accuses me of "Putting money over lives", I would just ask them to reflect on that before they say it.
My contributions to this forum are for all members, the expat community and the public, not just for what 1 member wants to hear.
if you feel strongly about something,  (FTSE/DOW etc down by 35%.) and feel it's way more important then start a thread on the subject.
we are all in the same boat. unite not fight.

Incidentally, Most Online Today: 1785. Most Online Ever: 2520 (March 13, 2020, 03:01:04 PM) the only way is up, well done the contributors.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vVszKVDULw" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vVszKVDULw</a>
Appeasers believe that if you keep on throwing steaks to a tiger, the tiger will become a vegetarian.


Online jungle

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My guess would be August the earliest
I can't see a vaccine by then but but maybe a viable drug treatment before then
If the mortality and especially the  hospitalisation rates can be lowered it could be declared under control
It would be quicker to treat (cure) people than the huge task of vacation


Offline tiggs

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My guess would be August the earliest
I can't see a vaccine by then but but maybe a viable drug treatment before then
If the mortality and especially the  hospitalisation rates can be lowered it could be declared under control
It would be quicker to treat (cure) people than the huge task of vacation
Hi jungle, thanks for joining in August it is, the cruise for the winner is off, cancelled. so a medical hamper would be a good gift, you know anti virus, that sort a stuff. as for vaccine, the race is on,  First stage of COVID-19 vaccine testing gets under way mercurynews.com

NBTC will provide a free sim card worth Bt49 to every Thai and foreigner who had travelled from countries announced as having high risk of Covid-19 infection. Philippines took the rare step of stopping stock, bond and currency trading -- the first country to shut its markets
Myanmar has asked the Thai government to pass on the message that its people working there should not to return home for Songkran next month

TIGGS               December
DAM 12641      june
COOLKORAT   October
JIVVY                 july/august
EAGLE3            May
DYLAN_LEO    November
JUNGLE           August

Keep the forum alive - predictions guys ........................
Appeasers believe that if you keep on throwing steaks to a tiger, the tiger will become a vegetarian.


Offline tiggs

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Wow! i just noticed two people have chose AUGUST jivvy & jungle. so if august were near back to normal, you will have to share the prize.
the admin at this very minute is getting in touch with NOOKIE to order i kid you not, so it's half a pork pie each. lol.
would be nice if it was august, they wont be very fresh if i'm right december. Hmm

so whats been happening. China and the United States are ready to help Thailand by providing medical equipment,
Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai said. More than 40 major consumer goods suppliers have confirmed that they have enough products to meet full demand, and there's still time to put your prediction below

TIGGS               December
DAM 12641      june
COOLKORAT   October
JIVVY                 july/august
EAGLE3            May
DYLAN_LEO    November
JUNGLE           August

Keep the forum alive - predictions guys .......................

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZrU8bpK40Ec" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZrU8bpK40Ec</a>
Appeasers believe that if you keep on throwing steaks to a tiger, the tiger will become a vegetarian.