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Libya - the beginning of the end for Gaddaffi?

Alfie · 56 · 1000

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Offline Alfie

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For the past few days the papers have been reporting rebel advances towards Libya. Also, a few of Gaddaffi's "top" men have left the country, seemingly deserting him. Rebels now control most of the country and a couple of days ago captured the main oil refinery feeding the Libyan capital, Tripoli. This morning it has been reported that rebels have now entered Tripoli and now claim to have captured Muammar Gaddaf's son, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi

Is this the beginning of the end for Gaddafi and his regime? It certainly seems so.
There are none so blind as those who will not see.


Offline Alfie

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Gaddafi's eldest son, Mohammad, has also been captured. He told al-Jazeera television he has been detained by rebels and was being kept under house arrest in Tripoli.



The rebels have reached Green Square. If you look at a map of Tripoli and the surrounds, you'll see that Green Square is near the sea and that the rebels must have passed through the rest of the city to get there, so they must control most of the city.

There are none so blind as those who will not see.


Toddy

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Don't write the old bugger off just yet. I don't see this ending any time soon. Tripoli could turn into a bloodbath, one way or another, and the situation could limp along indefinitely. I hope that I am wrong.

In any event, what happens if and when the old tyrant is put down? Egypt was not exactly as one (and see how the differences are coming out now) but Libya is hopelessly fractured.


Offline Alfie

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Yes, you could be right, Toddy. For sure there will be people still loyal to Gaddaffi, and for sure they are armed. Gaddaffi made sure of that. With two of Gaddaffi's sons captured and Tripoli apparently fallen to the rebels, I don't think Gaddafi will last long in his compound, or wherever he is.  

I don't think it will turn into another Iraq, though, because, as far as I know, there are no serious external forces puling in opposite directions and there are no external forces on the ground. Also, there is currently an opposition that has forced the issue (OK, we know NATO and others played a HUGE part in it) and the opposition  will take the helm once Gaddafi is killed or captured. I foresee a bit of resistance then a bit of political tussling followed by a bit more shooting and tussling then eventually it will settle down. I suppose a lot will depend on how the new government goes about its business, whether it is inclusive and fair or exclusive and as bad as Gaddaffi and his regime.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2011, 03:37:55 PM by Alfie »
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Toddy

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I have to say that I am surprised how little resistance Gaddaffi's loyalists have shown in Tripoli. Let us hope that he falls soon.

What happens thereafter is anybody's guess. It could all turn pear shaped very quickly. When it comes to the Middle East I am not my usual optimistic self.


Offline Alfie

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The rebels are saying they control 80-85 percent of Tripoli. The special battalion charged with securing Tripoli apparently surrendered! Maybe that's who Gaddaffi was addressing when he complained about allowing the capital to be under occupation.

It seems like there was a very bloody battle in Tripoli. Mustafa Mohammed Abdul Jalil, chairman of the rebel National Transitional Council (NTC), said fighting in the city since noon on Sunday had left 1,300 people dead and 5,000 wounded.
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Offline Alfie

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Another nail in the coffin for the Gaddaffi regime; Egypt has recognised the Libyan rebel government.
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Toddy

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Have to agree, Alfie. He's finished. Let's hope that someone can step in and get the country back on it's feet, without it becoming another Iran.

To my mind Iran and Syria are the so and so's causing instability in places such as Iraq. They really are an axis of evil. Who coined that phrase - was it Dubbya?


Offline Alfie

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Yes, it was Dubbya.

On a personal level, Gaddaffi's spirits are bound to be low. Al-Arabiya is reporting that another of Muammar Gaddafi's sons, former footballer Al-Saadi, has been captured. That's three sons captured now!

I think Syria is next in line for change, though Yemen might pip them at the post. As far as I know, Saleh is still in Saudi Arabia.
There are none so blind as those who will not see.


Offline Alfie

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Below is an interesting picture taken less than a year ago.

Libyan Muammar Gaddafi, center, with then-Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, right, his Yemeni counterpart Ali Abdullah Saleh, center left, and then-Tunisian president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, far left during a group picture with Arab and African leaders during the second Afro-Arab summit in Sirte, Libya, Oct. 10, 2010.

Where are they now?  ;)  :D

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Toddy

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God, Gaddaffi really is a tosser!!

I would be amazed if Syria went the way of Tunisia, Egypt and now Libya, but in truth we really cannot predict with any degree of certainty what might happen. Probably reason to expect the unexpected.


Offline Alfie

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I have been a bit surprised by events in Syria. The regime is a bit like the Libyan one, ruling by fear, but despite that there has been a gradual but continuing escalation in tensions and violence. More and more people are joining the protests even though over 2000 people have been killed so far. I think Assad is still in control but the situation is only heading in one direction. International pressure has also ratcheted up recently. Assad is following the same path as Gaddaffi but hoping events in Syria will end up more like Bahrain than Libya.


NB: Jordan has now recognised the Libyan NTC. Turkey probably will tomorrow.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2011, 11:15:48 PM by Alfie »
There are none so blind as those who will not see.


Toddy

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Like I say Alfie, never say never. If Syria did blow like the others I would suggest that we have a very unstable, (more so than usual), Middle East situation which is potentialy frightening.

I always said that if Saudi goes belly up then we are out of here (UAE) as the barbarians would, literally, be at the door. I don't think it is likely, but who can possibly predict the way forward? These are historic times in the Arab world.


Offline Alfie

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Some strange things happening in Libya, or perhaps not so strange, just not the whole truth being told.


Saif al-Islam Gaddafi turned up at Hotel Rixos in the early hours of Tuesday and spoke to reporters and Gaddafi's eldest son, Muhammad, has reportedly escaped from rebel custody hours after being detained!

Someone telling porkies?
There are none so blind as those who will not see.



Toddy

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Offline Alfie

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Rebels control most of Tripoli now and have entered Gaddaffi's compound. It can't be long now before it's all over.

Bahrain has now recognised the TNC. (I find that quite funny)


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Toddy

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I wonder where Gaddafi is hiding - has he made it to Sirte? I suspect that he is still in Triploi hiding in a hole like a rat.