Brexit

[Teessider]

I agree that Brexit needs to be resolved but revoking article 50 will at least give us time to do so in a way that doesn't adversely affect the UK or threaten its break-up.

[Roger]

Sorry Teess but I think revoking Article 50 ends the Brexit process altogether, leaving  us as a full Member of the EU ? ATB

[Teessider]

Yes I know. When we discover how to do it we can invoke if again. Do you really think there is a solution to be found in the next 3 months? Alternatively back to the people.

[Coolkorat]

There's an interesting article about second referendums here: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/10/19/asking-the-public-twice-why-do-voters-change-their-minds-in-second-referendums-on-eu-treaties/

The Remainers have learnt their lesson and are champing for a second referendum. Mrs May may well hand it to them.

[caller]

Hi Teess. I agree with much of your comment, particularly about inequality, which also seems to be the driver behind Mr Macron's troubles atm.

This is the scary thing. For those whom the EU affected most badly, nothing has changed and all those baying MP's seem more intent on petty point scoring than helping to find a solution or worrying about the reason Brexit happened in the first place.

We are really getting into a people v parliament constitutional crisis here. You simply cannot revoke Brexit. You simply cannot offer another referendum. It's actually quite incredible that a small group of people seem determined to overturn a democratic vote and don't understand the consequences of that. 

I agree with you Roger, the job has to be finished. But preferably without May and if a no-deal, so be it.

[Anton]

For those whom the EU affected most badly

I'm sure you meant to say: for those whom globalisation affected most badly. Maybe your keyboard has an auto-correct function you're unaware of, Caller. All terms indicating real causes of the troubled times we live in (globalisation, tax evasion, republicanism, neoliberalism, populism, fundamentalism...), your keyboard turns them automatically into "EU". Don't worry, it would be worse if it was your mind doing so.

[caller]

I'm sure you meant to say: for those whom globalisation affected most badly.

No I didn't, thanks(?) all the same.

How is your Government managing these day's? Seemingly getting ready to lurch away from the EU as it stands?

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-government-charles-michel-identity-crisis-isnt-about-migration/

[Roger]

The 1922 Committee have called a 'Vote of Confidence' in Mrs May's leadership - TONIGHT !

If this vote fails - we're stuck in May's mire for at least 12 months - (unless she resigns).

IMHO, there's NO hope of a positive resolution OF ANY KIND with the Brexit confusion, unless we are 'MAY FREE'. Time to move on Theresa . . .

        

[caller]

Well, the vote came and went and she didn't! 

I can't understand those MP's saying they believe she is still best placed to deliver Brexit. Her only plan has failed - period. So why on Earth do they believe she can still deliver, when what she came back with, was so bad, she pulled the vote, as it would have resulted in a heavy defeat?

She will fail in her attempt to get any changes made to 'the deal' and as a consequence, the so-called meaningful vote on the non-deal will be cancelled and the deal withdrawn. It's now up to her cabinet to bring her to heel. Liam Fox has already hinted this is on the cards. But I don't trust any of them anymore, either.

She will probably go in the next few weeks.

I would now prefer to see Brexit delayed and a new Brexit supporting leader and advisors get tough with the EU. They are on the brink of a new recession and Macrons actions haven't helped them. We are now in a stronger position to walk away than ever before as a meaningful negotiating tool as the EU simply cannot afford the disruption. This isn't new thinking, anyone that has been listening to the warnings of businesses and senior politicians in various Countries, including Germany, will be aware of this, even if ignored by our own Government as it doesn't suit their aims. But it is finely laid out by Andrew Evans-Pritchard in his article for the Telegraph this morning.

Teresa May and her remainer advisors have worked against the decision of the referendum from the outset and as such, have betrayed the democratic vote. The opinion of the majority of MP's who seem to believe that this is fine and that once we get this 'nasty mess' behind us, we can all move on are simply deluding themselves. This could see the break up of the status quo of UK politics that has been in place since the war. I certainly hope so. The people need to defend democracy if the politicians won't.

[Roger]

So we are 'stuck in May's mire' for at least the next few weeks, or until Labour calls a VoC, or 12 months (via another VoC) or until the 2022 General Election.

Caller your Reply 530 - excellent thanks again.
I still remember ''the women is a complete barmpot''    Absolument !

I recall commenting that the EU 'Negotiators' (Robert?) never intended to be reasonable or helpful with respect to the Brexit decision made by the UK electorate. The EU have instead exploited any real problems and obfuscated and bullied Mrs May on every front, despite the best efforts of David Davis and Dominic Rabb and others. The UK stands now, politically exhausted and confused with no apparent way forward 

We need some real Leadership and Mrs May certainly can't provide that !

[Roger]

My limited access to the DT, (what with the falling £), yields this with a quick look . . .

''The Tories erupted in civil war on Thursday as Chancellor Philip Hammond was branded “a complete moron” for referring to Eurosceptic colleagues as “extremists” and Brexiteer MPs vowed to block the passage of the Government’s withdrawal agreement into law.

Within hours of Theresa May winning a vote of no confidence, Conservative in-fighting spilled out into the open, with Mr Hammond referred to as a “t---” and an unnamed minister reported to have bragged: “I’d like to punch the ERG in the face”, a reference to the European Research Group of Eurosceptic MPs which led Wednesday’s attempted coup...''

AND . . .

''After weeks encouraging enough MPs to demand a vote of confidence in Theresa May's leadership, Jacob Rees-Mogg got what he wanted yesterday. But he did not succeed in persuading his colleagues to oust her, as they voted by 200-117 for her to stay on.

The Prime Minister has taken this as licence to stay on in her job, with the European Research Group reduced to complaining that she should go and visit the Queen nonetheless and resign forthwith because "an overwhelming majority of backbenchers” wanted her out. Unsurprisingly, the notoriously stubborn Mrs May has not heeded the call.''

And the unfairly maligned (IMHO) ID-S . . .

''The result of the confidence vote on Wednesday night was a shock to Downing Street. That over a third of the Parliamentary party declined to support the Prime Minister sounds bad enough. It is even worse when one discounts the votes of those MPs who are members of the government and realises that around two thirds of backbenchers declined to give Theresa May their support. The last seven days of chaos, starting with the refusal to release the Attorney General’s legal opinion, followed by three defeats for the government on one day . . ''

Interesting times indeed ! GLA

 

[caller]

So it's started. The Euro is heading for recession, QE is to be cancelled and whilst the ECB claims it is a 'hiccup' due to the fall out of car emissions in Germany and French protests, financial experts and economists from around the World are poo-poohing this as wishful thinking and saying the situation is far worse than the ECB is admitting to, or even sees. Unless they urgently agree a Euro wide fiscal policy, Brexit might not be needed as the EU will implode. 

[Roger]

Hi Caller - implosion would be good - maybe that's wishful thing 

The DX - ''CHARLES de Gaulle was the unlikely prophet of Brexit and he was “right” to oppose Britain’s application to join the European project, Margaret Thatcher's pioneering treatise.''

Later in the same article :-

''''The Iron Lady noted that Mr De Gaulle was “half right” as “by her history and her interests, Britain is indeed a fundamentally different kind of nation state to those which are involved in ‘building’ Europe”. However, Baroness Thatcher argued that “one would have to add, as de Gaulle himself could not, that it was more than economics that was at issue”. She explained: "It was Britain’s long history of continuous constitutional development, the respect in which her institutions were held, the honesty of her politicians and the integrity of her judges, the fact that not since the Norman Conquest had she known occupation, and that neither Nazism nor communism had ever gained grip on her political life - all these things marked Britain out from Continental Europe.

“But I repeat, the General was right in so far as his pride allowed: Britain is different.  “That is why Britain is still repeatedly at odds with the other European countries, however determinedly cooperative British politicians wish to be.”''''

I am not one to agree with the Iron Lady about much but IMO that was spot on 

Mainland Europeans might feel offended by this stance, but it is largely true is it not ?

[Roger]

We remember how David Cameron fought against the appointment of Juncker as President of the European Commission. IMHO he was more than right. Any thoughts on this sort of dignity from the EU's Leader? 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6497315/Bizarre-moment-Jean-Claude-Juncker-seen-ruffling-womans-hair.html

[Hector]

 I confess to being an unashamed fan of The Iron Lady!  I reckon had she been the PM now, Jean Claude winker, Michel barmy and others would have been staggering away with wobbly bottom lips, covered in handbag bruises and Britain would have been out of Europe by now.  I noticed in the DX today an excerpt from her book in she wrote about the single currency: “This project is essentially political, rather than economic.  The power to issue a currently is fundamentally an attribute of sovereignty, not some symbolic or technical matter.  ....without the power to issue and so to control one’s own currency a state can no longer be said to determine its own economic policy: it can no longer sets its interest rates in line with monetary conditions and other requirements.  Instead interest rates are set for it by a supra-national authority according to supra-national criteria.
A state’s ability to cope with economic shocks or to respond to economic cycles is thus very much contained. It is, consequently, forced to rely on fiscal means alone to ride out difficulties.
The European single currency is bound to fail, economically, politically and indeed socially, though the timing, occasion and full consequences are still necessarily unclear.  It therefore follows that countries which have not already joined the project would be well-advised to keep out.  The failure cannot be rectified by the American or other international attempts to rescue the euro, because the fundamentals of the euro-land are irremediably unsound."
Both she and de Gaulle had wiser heads on their shoulders than they are often given credit for.

[caller]

Hi Caller - implosion would be good - maybe that's wishful thing

Things have worsened in the few days since this article.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/opinion/eu-italy-debt-crisis.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FEuropean%20Sovereign%20Debt%20Crisis%20(2009-%20)

The architect?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/business/angela-merkel-economics-populism.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FEuropean%20Sovereign%20Debt%20Crisis%20(2009-%20)

[Roger]

Hector - I don't think I ever agreed with Mrs Thatcher about anything else at all, but the passage you have posted is absolutely 100% spot on IMO. Then came Major and Maastricht !    ATB.

[Roger]

Lord (Chris) Patten, 17 minutes into Radio 4, 'The World this Weekend' yesterday :-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0001mtk

An animated Chris Patten says that Mrs May's deal is 'dead' and that 'however much lipstick you put on a pig, it's still a pig' . . .  It's 'impossible to get a deal that will satisfy the EU and ourselves'. That's encouraging then.

CP says put the deal to the HoC asap/now - no concessions are coming so we have to know.
May is a poor beleagured woman trying to do something impossible.

The Political Declaration that follows the Withdrawal Agreement, is 'empty to the point of vacuity' and uses lots of comments like 'best endeavours' at which, CP 'usually reaches for the smelling salts'.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0001mtk

Worth 10 minutes of time to those interested.

[Roger]

The sleazy Jean Claude Juncker - I sometimes wonder if everything would have been different if David Cameron's objections to his Appointment had been heeded. This IS sexist and disgraceful behaviour - Resign JCJ !!   

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6521873/Amber-Rudd-blasts-ghastly-EU-chief-Jean-Claude-Juncker.html

[Roger]

The Brexit drama is bubbling nicely for the New Year. Tim Martin of my beloved Wetherspoons lauds Boris Johnson to replace Mrs May and lead Hard Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn tells Mrs May to recall Parliament 1 week early, and somewhere, I read that the EU Elections coming in May will see a very different European Parliament, with anti EU elements in many countries having a fuller representation . . . and :-

''MPs have warned of the dangers of the Brexit transition period after it emerged that hundreds of thousands of small businesses could be forced to pay VAT for the first time after Britain leaves the European Union. Brussels is preparing to reduce the threshold at which businesses start paying VAT from a turnover of £85,000 to £76,700 in a bid to "harmonise" tax systems.

MPs on the EU scrutiny committee warned Britain will have to accept the move if it comes into force after Brexit in March 2019 because it will lose its right to veto the plans.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/27/eu-planning-hit-small-businesses-uk-vat-bombshell-brexit-mps/