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Author Topic: Brexit  (Read 22129 times)

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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #380 on: October 05, 2018, 03:45:31 PM »

Well done Unilever  ;D   ;D   ;D.

Unilever seem to know on what side their bread is buttered - with Marmite too  :P

Bravo Unilever. Time to thrash aside these Brexit doubts and go for Canada +++

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/05/unilever-scraps-plan-move-london-rotterdam-uk-netherlands
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Teessider

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #381 on: October 05, 2018, 03:50:58 PM »

So Roger, Canada +, meaning a hard border in Ireland?
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #382 on: October 05, 2018, 04:02:49 PM »

Hi Teess. That post was just for fun really.

However - reports are that Donald Tusk has spoken about a Canada +++ nature of deal which may involve some procedures somewhere - maybe in the Irish sea.

The target is surely for the whole of the UK to get out of the Customs Union and all it entails so we'll see if a deal emerges.

What do you think about the 'Dancing Queen' these days ? Has your view changed at all ?

ATB
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Teessider

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #383 on: October 05, 2018, 05:02:13 PM »

Irish sea border would pose huge problems. DUP would oppose it, May opposes it and Scotland opposes it. Could lead to break up of UK? May has done well to still be PM but she comes across poorly. Did you see her interview with Andrew Marr about the N. Ireland border? Tory alternatives to May are frightening though, Johnson, Hunt, Javid or Dumb, Dumber and Dumbest. Corbyn provides little opposition. 1 of the 2 main parties needs to support the peoples vote campaign so we can end this lamentable escapade and raise the £ value against the baht to nearer 50 than 40.
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Robert

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #384 on: October 05, 2018, 07:46:33 PM »

Allthough Brexit is a British issue do hope a simple Dutchman is allowed to react  ;D ;D ;D

I live in Thailand since beginning of 2007 and do know what rates were in 2008 because I build house in that year. Euro was approximately 50 Thb and pound was Thb 70!!!!
So of course I can understand that British people would like to see a raise for the UK pound to the Thb. However 66.000.000 persons in UK are using the pound while 337.000.000 persons in EU countries are using the Euro so could we also get a better rate for the Euro versus Thb too  :D :D :D.

Population EU countries I found here: http://www.worldometers.info/population/countries-in-the-eu-by-population/. To be correct I only counted the countries which actually use the Euro.

Robert
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caller

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #385 on: October 05, 2018, 09:32:38 PM »

Considering that Irish exports to the US & UK are greater than to the whole of the EU combined, it makes sense for Ireland to leave the EU and I see a movement has just started to press for that.

But the reality in respect of the Irish border is that where there is a will, there is a way. At the moment, the EU are still holding out that Brexit won't happen and this is one of their bargaining chips. Once the fanatics at the EU commission + Macron and Merkel, understand the game is up, you would hope their stance would change. Otherwise, the Irish would once again find themselves being shafted by the EU.

Ironically, Merkel could have resigned by the time Brexit happens and Macron is not exactly popular in his own Country, a no-deal Brexit might well see him 'fall' on his own petard (with any luck), so who knows what will happen? Not Juncker, that's for sure.
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Hector

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #386 on: October 06, 2018, 06:42:49 AM »

Robert.  Actually in 2008 the baht was worth just over 65 to the pound for only a couple of months in the middle of the year.  Prior to that it was between 60 and 65 and it ended the year dipping below 60.  You did well to get 70! 
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #387 on: October 06, 2018, 08:11:36 AM »

Robert - Dutch people are not simple ! It's a great Country IMO.

Difficult to know where the exchange rates will end up - I'm not sure population numbers are a big factor in the outcome. It'll be political stability and economic performance won't it ?

Caller - love those thoughts. If only  ;D

Teess - Just MO but Mrs May has shown incredible resilience in the most demanding of circumstances. Under 24 hour spotlight and examination - it's hard to be perfect all the time. I don't think a 'people's vote' will necessarily help the £ - maybe send it plunging again ! (BTW B43 again on XE - so creeping up atm).

B70 would be just great LOL
« Last Edit: October 06, 2018, 08:31:10 AM by Roger »
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Robert

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #388 on: October 06, 2018, 08:54:22 AM »

Robert.  Actually in 2008 the baht was worth just over 65 to the pound for only a couple of months in the middle of the year.  Prior to that it was between 60 and 65 and it ended the year dipping below 60.  You did well to get 70!

Hi Hector,

I used Euro not Pound and in 2008 got 51 Thb for one Euro when building our house. The pound has been around 70 but do not know exact date. To be complete I never changed pounds to Thb.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2018, 09:16:38 AM by Robert »
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Robert

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #389 on: October 06, 2018, 09:31:07 AM »

Robert - Dutch people are not simple ! It's a great Country IMO.

Difficult to know where the exchange rates will end up - I'm not sure population numbers are a big factor in the outcome. It'll be political stability and economic performance won't it ?


Hi Roger,

of course I know that poltical stability and economic performance are important, I am not that simple  ;D ;D ;D.  Because to non-economic performance of Greece (and other southern Europe countries but it started with Greece) the value of the Euro dropped. Only mentioned population to state that more persons would benefit from a higher rate for Euro versus Thb. Personaly I think that countries are not being ruled anymore by politicians but by money traders. If you see how many times exchange rates change during the day it is perfectly clear to me those money traders have a big influence on everybody lives. Even if somebody says something which is not even approved rates go up and down. Those money traders simply make money by switching amounts quickly. I was against fixed exchange rates from local currencies to the Euro. If a EU country which uses the Euro does not well no devaluation of their currency possible anymore.

Have a nice day,

Robert
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #390 on: October 07, 2018, 09:09:33 AM »

Robert something new is afoot in the discussions . .  Any ideas ?
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Robert

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #391 on: October 07, 2018, 09:43:08 AM »

Robert something new is afoot in the discussions . .  Any ideas ?

Hi Roger,

only if you have a timemachine so we could go back to the days before introducing the Euro. Not with fixed amounts but every country keeps its own currency and if you go on holiday or business exchange your local currency to Euro's and pay with Euro's in all countries you visit. Meaning when you go by car from The Netherlands through Germany, through France, etc. pay with Euro. After returning home exchange your Euro's back to local currency. Advantage: no coins etc. from all countries which are never to be used again and bear no value.
If a country then does not well devaluation would still be possible meaning you would have to pay less or more depending on daily exchange rates between Euro and local currency.

Anyway only a dream and not possible anymore  :( :( :(

Robert
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #392 on: October 07, 2018, 05:45:47 PM »

Crikey Robert the Euro is another BIG subject. I think most Brits are still delighted that the UK stayed out of the Euro and it seems that the southern EU Nations would have done better OUT of the Euro too? But I like your ideas . . . No time machine I'm afraid.

I was actually referring to some as yet unspecified big move forward initiated by Donald Tusk, in the Brexit 'negotiations' - the UK media are babbling about it. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
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caller

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #393 on: October 07, 2018, 06:51:46 PM »

I was actually referring to some as yet unspecified big move forward initiated by Donald Tusk, in the Brexit 'negotiations' - the UK media are babbling about it. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

I still feel the most likely utcome is a no deal.

Any new offers from the EU will mean more compromises from May and I doubt she will succeed in getting any through Parliament, even if she tried, which I doubt she will. It's quite significant, in my opinion, that any such offer from the EU has emerged after the party conference season, so the EU will, if they have read the signals right, which I doubt, believe they have identified areas they can exploit.

Anyway, considering all the talk above about the Euro, it's worth pointing out that Italy have started their challenge to the EU and have increased pensions and welfare to an extent that their deficit and GDP will increase and already Juncker has started making threatening noises. He can't win and it's empty rhetoric, but it's not good news, especially in a week when Moody's predicted that the Euro will not survive tne next financial crisis - and that could be brought on by Italy.

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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #394 on: October 14, 2018, 01:18:09 PM »

When the problem of the N.Ireland border first came up, some contend that it would have been better to point out the inevitability of some checks, somehow, somewhere and to have stated so bluntly to the DUP and all, that that was the case, 'like it or not' - so 'how do we cope with it ?''.

A border of some sort was inevitable then and is now. By trying to appease from the start, the Tories have enabled the EU to play this card righteously to the death . . .

Caller I agree with this, ''I still feel the most likely outcome is a no deal.''
Reports of EU concessions were of course not well founded.

In the Grauniad today:-

Has Theresa May finally run out of Brexit road?
''A former Tory cabinet minister with decades of experience of epic parliamentary battles over Europe had this to say last week about Theresa May’s current Brexit conundrum: “I cannot for the life of me see how she can get any sort of deal done with Brussels that stands the slightest chance of passing through parliament.” Without a working majority, and reliant on the increasingly troublesome Democratic Unionist party (DUP) for support, he believed that the prime minister’s position was becoming more impossible by the day''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/13/has-theresa-may-run-out-brexit-options-eu-leaders
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #395 on: October 15, 2018, 06:30:27 AM »

From the DT's headline article today :-

''Theresa May puts the brakes on customs union deal with Brussels.

Theresa May refused to endorse a draft Brexit deal negotiated by UK and EU officials on Sunday night amid fears that her Cabinet would fail to back the plan. British officials led by Ollie Robbins, the Government’s chief negotiator, are understood to have struck an agreement on a detailed proposal which would effectively mean Britain remains part of the EU’s customs union for the foreseeable future. It is the first time a Brexit blueprint had been agreed by both sets of negotiators.''

If this is true, caller's 'likely outcome' comes closer ?

(No link - that's all we have access to)      . . . .
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #396 on: October 15, 2018, 08:27:19 AM »

BJ's comment on the impasse :-

''There comes a point when you have to stand up to bullies. After more than two years of being ruthlessly pushed around by the EU, it is time for the UK to resist. With painful politeness, we have agreed to the EU’s timetable for discussions. We have consented to hand over huge quantities of taxpayers’ money – £39bn of it. We have quite properly volunteered to protect the rights of EU nationals in the UK. So far we have nothing to show for our generosity and understanding. We are now entering the moment of crisis. Matters cannot go on as they are.''

(DT).
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caller

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #397 on: October 15, 2018, 02:06:21 PM »

Should have listened to Varafoukis. It's all there in his book. The lies, the deceit, the manipulation and bullying. It has worked everytime for the EU - so far - in Ireland, Italy and so on.
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #398 on: October 19, 2018, 03:56:15 PM »

That's about it Caller - Varafoukis had their number OK !

The EU seem to think they have Mrs May by the scruff of the neck - from the Guardian :-

The same problems remain, and it is up to the British to sort out the mess,” an EU official said. “I trust you haven’t got any plans for Christmas.”  Smug ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/18/brexit-unpalatable-truths-for-dinner-at-eu-summit

Encouragingly I recent heard a comment that, in the event of 'no deal', the EU will INSTRUCT Ireland to assert border controls !  ;)  That'll be fun for Mr Varadkar  ;)

Can listen to the silky Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC radio's 'Today' at 08.35 approx.
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caller

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #399 on: October 19, 2018, 11:35:11 PM »

Even at this late stage, May can just walk away. Simply say, 'we have done all we  can'  and the ball is now in your court.

I hate Chequers with a vengance, but you know the EU are taking the proverbial when they talk of not being able to 'legalise' May's plans. EU history has ample proof of ignoring what is or what isn't legal when it suits them, from the creation of the Euro (illegal) to Merkels unilateral 'let them all in' (illegal). Personally, if I was May, I would have been bigging up these examples and more in press conferences and to the liars very faces and put them on the spot and should Juncker open his mouth in protest, just reply with 'Selmayr' and stare him down. But she is too much of a wimp to do that.

The EU do not want a no-deal, so let them come up with a plan to avoid it.

Or simply get rid of May.


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