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Author Topic: Brexit  (Read 22122 times)

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caller

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Re: Brexit - Britain's May faces growing calls to delay Brexit
« Reply #560 on: February 26, 2019, 08:11:52 PM »

Labour's Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer said the party on Wednesday would put its own Brexit deal proposal up for a parliament vote.

"If it doesn't go through, we the Labour Party will either put down ourselves or support an amendment in favour of a public vote," Starmer told BBC radio.

"A public vote ought to be between the option on the one hand of a credible leave option and on the other hand remain."


Kiss kiss goodbye Labour. You forgot who you are meant to be representing. Here's a clue - it's not the luvvies in London.
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Re: Brexit - British PM offers lawmakers a choice - no-deal or delay?
« Reply #561 on: February 27, 2019, 10:30:53 AM »

Bit more the same,same as the pound slowly creeps up

May's Brexit Deal, no-deal or Delay? British PM Offers Lawmakers a Choice

In a move which pushes back the Brexit cliff edge by three months to the end of June, May announced she was to give the lawmakers two votes on March 13-14 if she failed to get a deal approved by March 12.

Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday offered lawmakers the chance to vote in two weeks for a potentially disorderly no-deal Brexit or to delay Britain's exit from the European Union if her attempt to ratify a divorce agreement fails.

Opening up the possibility of a delay and removing the immediate threat of a no-deal exit on March 29 marks one of the biggest turning points in the United Kingdom's labyrinthine Brexit crisis since the 2016 referendum vote to leave the EU.

In a move which pushes back the Brexit cliff edge by three months to the end of June, May announced she was to give the lawmakers two votes on March 13-14 if she failed to get a deal approved by March 12.

The government would allow a vote on March 13 at the latest asking whether lawmakers supported leaving without a deal. If they rejected such an option, on March 14 they would vote on a "short, limited extension" Brexit delay.

"The United Kingdom will only leave without a deal on March 29 if there is explicit consent in the House for that outcome," May said, though she was clear that the British government was not removing the ultimate threat of a no-deal Brexit.

"An extension cannot take no deal off the table," May said. "The only way to do that is to revoke Article 50, which I shall not do, or agree a deal."

May said any extension, not beyond the end of June, would almost certainly have to be a one off and that her government must honour the decision to leave the EU because the credibility of British democracy was at stake.

Earlier, The Sun and Daily Mail newspapers reported that May would formally rule out a no-deal Brexit. Reuters reported on Monday that May's government was looking at different options, including a possible delay.

Sterling, which has lost about 20 cents against the dollar since the 2016 Brexit referendum, rallied 1.4 percent to $1.3284, the highest since September 2018, and it also rallied strongly against the euro.

"She seems to be giving us a date for a new cliff edge - the end of June," veteran pro-EU Conservative lawmaker Kenneth Clarke said of May's statement.

NEW CLIFF EDGE?

The EU would be ready to ...

full article news18.com
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Teessider

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #562 on: February 27, 2019, 01:14:40 PM »

God knows what happens next:
Kicking the can down the road seems to be the limit of May's abilities.

The options are:
No Deal    Can't be done without a vote and majority very unlikely
May's deal. A rubbish deal which leaves us worse off, union threatened, and £30bn poorer.
Corbyn style customs union deal. Same as no brexit except we dont go to the meetings.
No Brexit. Only possible after another referendum and if it goes against Brexit it will not mean the nightmare is over.
But hey the pound has bounced back.
I dont agree that the labour stance is suicidal. Their membership voted overwhelmingly remain and plenty of labour voters did too. It could be srgued that ignoring the labour remainers would lose them more votes. My labour Teesside MP is still pushing for remain via the peoples vote. What is undemocratic about a new vote to choose between Mays deal or no Brexit.?
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #563 on: February 27, 2019, 01:45:03 PM »

This chaos is the result of Mrs May's deferential negotiating style . . .
Project 'Fear of No Deal' has been allowed to run riot - just what are the 'Brexiteer' leaders up to ? The 'Remain' establishment seem to be running riot atm.

I'd be horrified if the UK accepts any form of open ended obeisance to the EU.

The EU don't seem to be ready to give any ground. Why should they start being helpful now ?

No deal. WTO terms. March 29th please.
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Robert

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #564 on: February 27, 2019, 02:07:36 PM »

Hi Roger,

you did quote The Guardian a few times in the past. Did you miss this article?

Robert


Economy could be 9% weaker under no-deal Brexit, government says


Latest no-deal notice forecasts Northern Ireland to be hit hard and food prices likely to rise.

The government has issued a bleak warning over a no-deal Brexit, estimating the UK economy could be 9% weaker in the long run, businesses in Northern Ireland might go bust and food prices will increase.

In an official document only published after repeated demands by the former Conservative MP Anna Soubry, the government also revealed it was behind on contingency planning for a third of “critical projects” in relation to business and trade.

The latest no-deal notice states:

    The economy would be 6%-9% smaller over the next 15 years than it otherwise might have been, in the event of no deal, in line with Bank of England forecasts.

    The flow of goods through Dover would be “very significantly reduced for months”.

    With 30% of food coming from the EU, prices are likely to increase and there is a risk that panic buying might create shortages.

    Only six of the 40 planned international trade agreements have been signed.

The document was published just hours after Theresa May was forced to promise two key votes, allowing MPs the option to reject no deal and to potentially delay Brexit for a short period, following pressure from remain-minded cabinet ministers.
Sign up to our Brexit weekly briefing
Read more

The prime minister set out a timetable that includes a vote on her Brexit deal by 12 March; if that fails, a vote the following day to support no deal, and if that also fails, a vote on 14 March on extending article 50.

The delay is likely to further agitate the Tory party’s Eurosceptics, with Brexiter ministers including Andrea Leadsom and Liz Truss expressing their frustration over the issue in cabinet on Tuesday morning.

Speaking in the House of Commons on Tuesday, May did not specify the length of any delay, saying only that she would prefer it to be the shortest possible. An extension beyond the end of June would involve the UK taking part in the European parliament elections.

Cabinet ministers are keen for May to use any delay to try to force a cross-party consensus.

The no-deal notice said customs checks alone could cost businesses £13bn a year and that it was impossible to predict the impact of new tariffs. It said this was partly because the government’s communications to businesses and individuals about the need to prepare for no deal had not been effective.

It said small- to medium-sized businesses were not making basic preparations despite government advice to do so. Only 40,000 of 240,000 businesses that had no experience of customs or tariffs had registered for an economic operator registration and identification number.

The government said that while it might wave hauliers through British ports, “they would be stopped if taking goods into France without the right paperwork”. This amounts to the most robust rebuttal yet of Brexiter claims that there would be no delays because the British would be taking a loose approach to checks and controls.

Evidence suggested the public had not been heeding no-deal warnings either, with no “noticeable behaviour change” witnessed on a “significant scale” over the need to renew passports, and get international driving permits and green cards for insurance for driving in the EU, it said.

The EU, which would treat the UK as a third country in the event of no deal, could impose tariffs of 70% on beef exports, 45% on lamb and 10% on cars, it said.

“This would be compounded by the challenges of even modest reductions in flow at the border.”

The impact on the economy would vary across the UK, with Wales and Scotland’s economies estimated to be about 8% smaller under a no deal scenario over the next 15 years, when compared to today’s arrangements. In the Northern Ireland, the economy would be 9% smaller and in the north-east of England 10.5% smaller.

It added: “Overall, the cumulative impact from a no-deal scenario is expected to be more severe in Northern Ireland than in Great Britain, and to last for longer.”

This was because of expected disruption in the “closely interwoven supply chains and increasing costs that would affect the viability of many businesses across Northern Ireland. There is a risk that businesses in Northern Ireland will not have sufficient time to prepare. This could result in business failure.”

Scottish fishing would be badly hit as would Welsh sheep farming, with 92% of its lamb being exported to the EU, confirming the sector’s previous warnings that it could be “wiped out” by no deal.

The notice said the impact on the food and drink sector would be most pronounced in Wales, Scotland and particularly Northern Ireland, where the sector comprises 5.07% of the economy, compared to 1.38% for England.

It said fewer than one in 10 items would be affected by delays on the channel crossings but, because of the timing of a potential no-deal Brexit, supplies of fresh fruit and vegetables could be hit hardest.

“In the absence of other action from government, some food prices are likely to increase, and there is a risk that consumer behaviour could exacerbate, or create, shortages in this scenario,” it said.

The government revealed there were significant delays to critical projects being undertaken in preparation for no deal.

“In February, departments reported being on track for just under 85% of no-deal projects but, within that, on track for just over two thirds of the most critical projects,” it said.

The document confirmed that the Treasury had made more than £4bn available for no-deal planning, £2bn of which was allocated in December to support preparations for the 2019-20 financial year.
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caller

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #565 on: February 27, 2019, 02:08:40 PM »

I dont agree that the labour stance is suicidal. Their membership voted overwhelmingly remain and plenty of labour voters did too. It could be srgued that ignoring the labour remainers would lose them more votes. My labour Teesside MP is still pushing for remain via the peoples vote. What is undemocratic about a new vote to choose between Mays deal or no Brexit.?

Membership v voters. Pretty much sums up what's wrong with Labour.

There doesn't appear much support for a new referendum.

Best of 3?

After all you can't say what the electorate were told - that the referendum was a one-off and the outcome was binding, can after all, simply be replaced by another, just because the majority of MP's are pro-remain, despite voting Brexit through time and again.

If.
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Teessider

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #566 on: February 27, 2019, 05:54:54 PM »

In north east england leave pollled 58% of the votes(778,000). As tory voters are more likely to vote leave it is most likely that the majority of labour voters chose remain. It is those remainers who the labour party need to appeal to. Also in the crazy and outdated 2 party system do you really think labour voting leavers would then vote for the austerity party?
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caller

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #567 on: February 27, 2019, 08:11:21 PM »

In north east england leave pollled 58% of the votes(778,000). As tory voters are more likely to vote leave it is most likely that the majority of labour voters chose remain. It is those remainers who the labour party need to appeal to. Also in the crazy and outdated 2 party system do you really think labour voting leavers would then vote for the austerity party?

That's just not true and is far too simple. Go and do the research, it's all out there. The academic analysis about who voted for what isn't really disputed. What's argued about is what it means.

Two examples. Area's such as Luton, Slough and Birmingham largely voted leave. These areas are represented by large immigrant communities, without said immigrants voting leave, the leave vote could not have won.

In areas that I know well and worked at in West London. The leafier, better off, white areas largely voted remain. The less affluent neighbouring areas, but in the same borough where the white population is a big minority,voted leave.

Just saying Tories are more likely to vote leave is so wrong on so many levels. Blue collar workers were right up there and they will largely be working class. Maybe they are all Tories, but I don't see too many Tory MP's from such areas.
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jivvy

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #568 on: February 28, 2019, 05:35:36 AM »


Where are people when you need them???
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #569 on: February 28, 2019, 12:20:59 PM »

Jivvy - nice one.

Robert - yes thanks I saw that Guardian article - typical remainer stuff but let's note the 'could be' and it's 6-9%. To the contrary, I've just heard a comment on Radio 4 that the World's largest investment fund (Norway?) believes that the UK is the best place to invest over the next 25 years.

Most Guardian scripts tend to the 'remainer' view IMO. ATB
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #570 on: February 28, 2019, 12:53:29 PM »

Robert - here it is . . .

''The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund is taking a 30-year bet that Britain will emerge from Brexit stronger outside the European Union. In an unexpected move, Norway’s £740 billion wealth fund said yesterday that it would increase its exposure to British companies, property and bonds regardless of the outcome of Brexit negotiations. This comes despite a 12 per cent fall in the value of its £62 billion of UK investments this year. Britain is the third largest market for the fund’s investment capital, which was built up from Norway’s oil and gas revenues.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/world-s-top-wealth-fund-puts-billions-into-britain-qswjw8637
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Robert

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #571 on: February 28, 2019, 12:53:51 PM »

Jivvy - nice one.

Robert - yes thanks I saw that Guardian article - typical remainer stuff but let's note the 'could be' and it's 6-9%. To the contrary, I've just heard a comment on Radio 4 that the World's largest investment fund (Norway?) believes that the UK is the best place to invest over the next 25 years.

Most Guardian scripts tend to the 'remainer' view IMO. ATB

Hi Roger,

only mentioned article because the Guardian published this statement from your own government and they do not want to remain! Personnaly I believe investers are only looking for money for themselves not for the people in any country but please believe what you want to believe  ;D ;D ;D
Anyway I think some kind of agreement will be reached at the last minute.

Robert
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Re: Brexit
« Reply #572 on: February 28, 2019, 12:56:36 PM »

Yes jivvy - classic - there's more - Theresa May Gains Two Weeks' Brexit Reprieve from British Lawmakers or listen to the robot

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQiEqOJzsjg" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQiEqOJzsjg</a>
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caller

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #573 on: March 01, 2019, 01:04:36 PM »

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Teessider

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #574 on: March 01, 2019, 01:35:40 PM »

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caller

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #575 on: March 01, 2019, 04:23:40 PM »

Labour will win more votes than it loses by backing another referendum

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/27/labour-vote-referendum-jeremy-corbyn?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

That's a pretty poor article and doesn't deal with the claims and issues Mann makes. He is stating quite correctly, that most northern and midland labour constituencies voted to leave. Yes, Labour might have more members or supporters who claim they will now vote remain - but where are they? You are talking of splitting an already fragmented party even more. Kellner is simply stating that numerically, the remain vote within Labour are in the ascendency. According to the polls. That'll be London then. And how many of them were actually supporters or members when the vote was held?

The author also states that such mid-term polls are very fickle and even more so in these challenging times. All the polls, did after all, predict a leave win at the referendum.

It's also assuming that after this debacle is over, that Labour and the Tories survive unscathed which is very doubtful.

He is also ignoring the fact that it's pretty universally accepted that Corbyn went down the 2nd vote stage to delay the party splitting apart even more than it already is, which everyone knows will happen when Brexit is sorted in any case. Look what's happening now - Watson is becoming ever more assertive and now openly challenging Corbyn. He's bided his time well and is virtual signalling that Corbyn, as everyone knows, is the root of the racism problem within Labour.

Mate, you really need to accept, that if British democracy is going to survive, the vote has to be respected. All the subsequent turncoats said that at the time - all of them - Cameron, Major, Corbyn, Soubrey, Khan, Mandelson, Straw, Clegg and Ummuna - who even said to Dimblebey that the vote had to be respected live on the referendum broadcast before the outcome had even been confirmed and said it time and again since. All of those above and many more, are all filmed stating the referendum is a one-off and the vote is decisive.

So what's changed? The wrong side won, that's what.

We really are into a parliament v. the people situation and there will ony ever be one winner. The UK is very lucky that there is no real history of populist uprisings, as otherwise there would be hell to pay. But politically, the people will make their feelings known.

What's so funny is, that the people across the EU are rebelling against the very status quo that remainers want to be a part of. I mean, to show how out of sync we are, the Tories are actually to the left of Macrons party, who govern France (just). The EU will be a very different place after May and is shifting to the right and remainers could well find themselves the proverbial fish out of water. But I personally struggle with anyone wanting to be part of a group where the very core of it's existance, the Euro, has heaped so much misery and poverty on so many people and the shameful way the Irish, Portuguese, Spanish, Italians and in particular the Greeks, whose treatment was and remains a disgrace, were all made to pay the price needed to rescue French and German banks and their absurd lending policies, from crashing. But each to their own.

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Teessider

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #576 on: March 01, 2019, 06:02:40 PM »

I thought it was a good article and largely reinforced my points. You see another vote as anti-democratic but why is it undemocratic to ask the people to vote on May's hopeless deal i.e. is this what you wanted? If so then it will win.
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caller

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #577 on: March 01, 2019, 09:26:19 PM »

I thought it was a good article and largely reinforced my points. You see another vote as anti-democratic but why is it undemocratic to ask the people to vote on May's hopeless deal i.e. is this what you wanted? If so then it will win.

For the reasons I have just stated. Everyone said and I mean everyone. Including in that list I gave above. One vote. That was it and the decision would be respected and acted upon. Now they haven't got the vote they thought they were going to get, they want to change the vote. That is undemocratic, end of.

You need to read the article again. It doesn't reinforce your points at all. It doesn't address them. You seem to have an issue accepting that working class labour supporters voted for Brexit. That's fine, but it's wrong. They previously voted for UKIP as well and I'm willing to bet that when Farage's new party hit's the ground running, they will vote for him again. For there is one thing that cannot be disputed - and that is that there is currently no-one of any influence in Parliament even remotely interested in representing them.

Remember, in the 1920's - 80% of Labour MP's were working class. Now it's 8%. No-one cares about them or shafting them, as is happening, certainly not Corbyn. Jeez, my late parents would be turning in their grave seeing what has happened to the party they were lifelong supporters of, that was founded on the premise of representing the working men, which is now staffed and supported by wealthy Londoners who might as well be living on Mars.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2019, 09:46:59 PM by caller »
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #578 on: March 05, 2019, 04:16:56 AM »

Undoubtedly the most important Brexit development is that Boris appears to have had a haircut, at last  8) 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6770253/I-no-idea-kick-particular-b-Boris-slams-lack-EU-transparency.html

and . . .

''The head of the German federation of industries has claimed the British are “lost” and has thrown doubt on Berlin’s backing for a short Brexit extension, claiming an “economy can live better with bad conditions than with uncertainty”. Dieter Kempf, the chairman of the Bundesverbandes der Deutschen Industrie, said the 100,000 companies he represents and their 8 million employees have prepared for a no-deal scenario in March, not in May.''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/04/brexit-dieter-kempf-no-deal-better-than-uncertainty-says-head-of-german-industry
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caller

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #579 on: March 05, 2019, 01:07:34 PM »

It seems that European investors have more faith in the UK post-Brexit than most of the remain supporting MP's that dominate parliament. Yes, conditions are good in the UK and poor elsewhere, particularly the EU and USA, but these people are here for the long term.

I haven't looked but I doubt this was widely reported.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/03/europeans-double-uk-investment-since-brexit-vote/
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