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Author Topic: Brexit  (Read 22126 times)

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Robert

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #660 on: March 28, 2019, 05:56:46 AM »

Hi Roger,

I was up early this morning and looked at The Guardian. Underneath extract from The Guardian but I really wonder what will happen now. Any ideas?

Robert

ps 1 I also do not like all these mandatory additions to new cars as described by you. Lane assist, alcohol locks: far too much control and being an adult I know what I can do or should not do.

ps 2 Just find this also on The Guardian:

3h ago 21:20
May wins vote on order delaying Brexit by majority of 336

MPs have backed the statutory instrument changing Brexit date in the EU Withdrawal Act by 441 votes to 105 - a majority of 336.


Results of indicative votes on Brexit alternatives


Here are the results of the indicative votes on the Brexit alternatives.

I have taken the summary of what each amendment does from the Press Association summary featured earlier.

    MPs vote against all eight options considered under the indicative votes process. This is what Oliver Letwin, the MP who championed this process, said he expected to happen in his Today interview this morning.

B - John Baron’s - No deal


Backed by Conservative MPs John Baron, David Amess, Martin Vickers and Stephen Metcalfe, the motion proposes leaving the European Union without a deal on April 12.

For: 160

Against: 400

D - Nick Boles’s - common market 2.0


Tabled by Conservatives Nick Boles, Robert Halfon and Andrew Percy and Labour’s Stephen Kinnock, Lucy Powell and Diana Johnson. The motion proposes UK membership of the European free trade association and European Economic Area. It allows continued participation in the single market and a “comprehensive customs arrangement” with the EU after Brexit, which would remain in place until the agreement of a wider trade deal which guarantees frictionless movement of goods and an open border in Ireland.

For: 188

Against: 283

H - George Eustice’s - Efta and EEA


A motion tabled by Conservative MP George Eustice – who quit as agriculture minister this month to fight for Brexit – proposes remaining within the EEA and rejoining Efta, but remaining outside a customs union with the EU. The motion was also signed by Conservative MPs including former minister Nicky Morgan and head of the Brexit Delivery Group Simon Hart.

For: 65

Against: 377

J - Ken Clarke’s - Customs union


Requires a commitment to negotiate a “permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union with the EU” in any Brexit deal. Tabled by veteran Conservative Europhile Ken Clarke, backed by Labour’s Yvette Cooper, Helen Goodman and chair of the Commons Brexit committee Hilary Benn and Tory former ministers Sir Oliver Letwin and Sarah Newton.

For: 264

Against: 272

K - Labour’s - Customs union and alignment with single market


Labour has tabled a motion proposing its plan for a close economic relationship with the EU. The plan includes a comprehensive customs union with a UK say on future trade deals; close alignment with the single market; matching new EU rights and protections; participation in EU agencies and funding programmes; and agreement on future security arrangements, including access to the European arrest warrant

For: 237

Against: 307

L - Joanna Cherry’s - Revocation to avoid no deal


Under this plan, if the government has not passed its withdrawal agreement, it would have to stage a vote on a no-deal Brexit two sitting days before the scheduled date of departure. If MPs refuse to authorise no-deal, the prime minister would be required to halt Brexit by revoking article 50. The motion, tabled by the SNP’s Joanna Cherry, has been signed by 33 MPs including the Conservative former attorney general Dominic Grieve, the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable, Labour’s Ben Bradshaw and all 11 members of the Independent Group.

For: 184

Against: 293

M - Dame Margaret Beckett’s - Confirmatory public vote


Drawn up by Labour MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson and tabled by former foreign secretary Dame Margaret Beckett with the backing of scores of MPs across the House, this motion would require a public vote to confirm any Brexit deal passed by parliament before its ratification.

For: 268

Against: 295

O - Marcus Fysh’s - Contingent preferential arrangements

A group of Conservative MPs, including Marcus Fysh, Steve Baker and Priti Patel, have signed a motion that calls for the government to seek to agree preferential trade arrangements with the EU, in case the UK is unable to implement a withdrawal agreement with the bloc.

For: 139

Against: 422
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2h ago 21:38

The division bell is going. That means John Bercow, the Speaker, will announce the results of the indicative votes in about two minutes.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2019, 06:06:05 AM by Robert »
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #661 on: March 28, 2019, 08:11:42 AM »

Hi Robert,

All 8 of the 'indicative votes' were voted down yesterday, the closest being Ken Clarke's option of 'Customs Union only', which the EU have dismissed as an option.

Theresa May has promised to go if her 'deal' goes through but the notoriously difficult DUP will not back it atm - (if the N.Irish have ANY doubt about the UK's commitment to them, they are plumb crazy - you only have to look at the last 40 years of our commitment to see that).

Whether the Speaker will allow another vote on the unchanged May 'deal' is not certain.

Who knows where this is going ? NOT ME  ::)

What would I like ? As Mrs May's statement repeated more than 100 times in the HoC,
            'NO DEAL IS BETTER THAN A BAD DEAL".

I fear we are heading for a longer extension  :'(
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caller

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #662 on: March 28, 2019, 03:42:02 PM »

Hey Tees - this wasn't you was it?  ;D

https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/crime/hunt-for-vandal-as-no-brexit-no-council-tax-graffiti-daubed-on-walls-across-sunderland-1-9671318/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Going back to the DUP, one of their ideas is to delay for a year, to allow time for the EU to implode whilst we start again with new leadership. It has merit. New elections in May and the EU economy is panning. The figures for Germany, Italy and particularly France are very worrying.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/27/mario-draghi-has-let-deflation-take-hold-now-impotent-spectator/

The European Central Bank has reached the end of the road. It no longer has the monetary levers or the political authority to launch another ‘shock and awe’ rescue if the eurozone tips into recession.

Mario Draghi tried valiantly to bluff his way through the ECB Watchers conference on Wednesday, laying out his surgical toolkit should the worst happen. “We are not short on instruments to deliver our mandate,” he said.
“What instruments?,” asked Ashoka Mody, the former deputy-director of the International Monetary Fund in Europe. “Aside from its jumble of words, the ECB has nothing else to offer.”

The eurozone’s 5-year/5-year forward inflation ‘swaps’ have collapsed over the last five trading days to 1.35pc. The contracts are pricing in a Japanese deflation trap as far out as 2024. Markets are screaming policy failure. The 10-year Bund yield - the eurozone fear gauge - has fallen to minus 0.08pc. It is a headlong scramble for safe-haven assets. Risk spreads on Italian 10-year bonds have jumped to 260 basis points.

“The ECB has lost its ability to act as a normal central bank. Its forward guidance is meaningless since markets know that it cannot raise rates,” said professor Mody. The ECB has frittered away its firepower and allowed a deflationary psychology to take hold.

Prof Mody said that for the last six months it has refused to acknowledge the recessionary storm clouds in plain view. “Riven by conflicting national interests, it always acts late. This pattern of repeated denials, delays, and half-measures is the antithesis of risk management,” he wrote for Econbrowser.

Mr Draghi argued that the eurozone region has seen 50 “growth slowdowns” since 1970 that are comparable to the current dip. Only four of these led to recessions. “The euro area faced an analogous situation in 2016, when the economy also went through a soft patch triggered by a contraction in world trade,” he said.

What he did not say is that the eurozone was then firing on all four cylinders, enjoying a rare moment of self-propelled ‘endogenous’ growth as it closed the output gap after the Long Slump. An oil price crash - thanks to Saudi efforts to flood the market - was then acting as a ‘tax cut’ for European consumers. 

Above all the ECB was buying €80bn of bonds each month. This spigot has been turned off. The ECB halted quantitative easing in December for political reasons, justifying this violation of monetary science with Panglossian growth forecasts that were patently false even at the time.

It has effectively tightened monetary policy into the teeth of a eurozone industrial recession (as it did in July 2008, with dire consequences). This is a very dangerous step to take given that policy lending rates are still stuck at minus 0.4pc. 
“They pulled QE too soon,” said James Ferguson, a monetarist at MacroStrategy. “The underlying economy is not fixed and the banks are not fixed. The chances of a deflationary bust have increased massively.” 

Mr Ferguson said the ECB misread its own M3 monetary data. The institution does not strip out the distortion of ‘intermediate OFC’s’  - hedge funds, finance vehicles, etc, - that cause double-counting. The Bank of England’s M4x is a purer measure.

This means the ECB overstated M3 growth by roughly 1.5pc annually. It is the difference between escape velocity and economic stagnation.

Nor is the global picture remotely akin to 2016. As we learned again this morning, China is not coming to the rescue this time. The profit growth of Chinese industrial companies crashed to minus 14pc over the January/February period from a year earlier, the worst earnings since May 2009.

Nomura said its ‘credit impulse’ measure in China has risen just 2.5 percentage points in the latest burst of stimulus. This compares to 14 points in the reflation episode of 2015-2016, and 30 points in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

The ECB has proffered a fresh round of cheap funding for the banks (TLTROs) but that is life-support. It is not a monetary propellant. “The TLTROs are an admission that the banks are still broken. They still cannot get money from the market at viable cost,” said Mr Ferguson.

Mr Draghi knows - but cannot admit - that the ECB was forced to shut down QE prematurely under pressure from Germany and the northern bloc. The real motives were political, rooted in the dysfunctional character of Europe’s half-built monetary union and German fears of debt union by stealth.

The longer QE continued, the more it looked like an Italian bail-out. This was tolerable - up to a point -  so long as reformers held sway in Rome. It was intolerable once the insurgent Lega-Five Star alliance took power in open defiance of EMU budget rules.

The end of QE means that there is no longer a buyer-of-last resort standing behind eurozone debt markets or the Italian treasury. This too is dangerous. Bond vigilantes know that the ECB is not allowed to buy the debt of a country in distress without formal activation of the eurozone bail-out machinery (ESM-OMT), under strict conditions and requiring a vote in the German Bundestag.

The Germans, Dutch, Finns, and allies may ultimately agree to restart QE if the downturn spins out of control but by then it is too late. Nor is it clear whether much can be achieved by plain vanilla debt purchases when the bonds of core Europe are already trading at negative yields and the ECB’s balance sheet is nearing technical limits at 43pc of GDP.

It would take ‘helicopter money’ or people’s QE injected into the veins of the real economy to pull Europe out of a deflationary vortex in today’s circumstances. That would breach the Lisbon Treaty and precipitate a storm in the German constitutional court.

For now Mr Draghi is having to put the best construction on the miserable options left to him, a little tinkering here and there to separate the ‘refi’ and ‘depo’ rates to help banks, a twist or two in forward guidance. None of this has macro-economic significance.

Antonio Garcia Pascual from Barclays has spelled out the ECB’s final lines of defence if the storm hits. It can “actively manage” its €2.6 trillion QE portfolio, compress credit spreads, relaunch QE, and ultimately broaden the menu of assets to include equities. In my view, events on the ground would overrun such plans.

Europe’s only option is a fiscal stimulus but this brings us back to the elemental failings of a monetary union composed of sub-sovereign borrowers with vastly different levels of legacy debt, but with no joint budget, shared borrowing mechanism (eurobonds) or a common ‘safe asset’.

The Stability Pact and Fiscal Compact make it impossible to launch Keynesian counter-cyclical stimulus a l’outrance in an emergency. If weaker states go it alone they will be picked off by markets. As rating agencies discovered in the Greek saga - to their astonishment - these countries are no different from cities or private companies. They can spiral into bankruptcy.  That is the euro’s design-flaw.
 
The ECB says fiscal loosening this year amounts to 0.4pc of GDP across Euroland, mostly from Emmanuel Macron’s danegeld to the ‘gilets jaunes’, the much-reduced spending spree of the Lega-Five Star, and higher public wages in Germany (€30bn). This may cushion a soft patch. It is no defence against a global slump. 

It might be a stretch to say that a no-deal Brexit would bring these hopeless vulnerabilities to a head in short order but it is not a big stretch. Nobody knows whether EMU’s fragile edifice could withstand such a shock if Brussels really acted on threats of a quasi blockade. EU leaders should be thankful that Britain’s parliament is unwilling to test the matter.

In a sense Europe is paying the price for policy errors made almost a decade ago. The ECB should never have raised rates in 2011 and triggered EMU's double-dip recession. It should not have delayed QE for five years after the Fed had already  shown the way.  This inertia - or hubris - allowed 'Japanese' pathologies to take root. Now the task is becoming impossible.

Events have come a long way since Mr Draghi uttered the words “whatever it takes” in July 2012, and magically brought the eurozone debt crisis to a halt. It is of course a mythical episode. The real decision was made in Berlin when contagion threatened to engulf Spain and Italy - which is not to deny that Mr Draghi was skillful.

The Kanzleramt lifted its veto and allowed the ECB to act as a lender-of-last resort (subject to conditions). I know for certain it was pre-cooked because I was in the room three weeks earlier when the head of German finance ministry told a dinner group in London that something big was coming. He even stated - accurately - that “nothing flies in the eurozone without German permission”.

Seven years later Mr Draghi is little more than a spectator. Judging by the action this week in the bond markets, his words now have the potency of a popgun.
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Teessider

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #663 on: March 28, 2019, 03:59:22 PM »

No Caller. Strange how they always make a spelling mistake, almost as if they are poorly educated.
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caller

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #664 on: March 28, 2019, 04:46:44 PM »

No Caller. Strange how they always make a spelling mistake, almost as if they are poorly educated.

More in a hurry I would have thought. Walking around with a tin of paint and a roller and writing what they did, must have taken some time! Amazed they are not on CCTV.

Somehow, I didn't think it would be you!  :-\
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #665 on: March 29, 2019, 05:40:52 AM »

Caller - thanks for that AE-P article in the DT - fascinating reading but to be honest I didn't understand all of it  :-\ 

The Euro IS heading into rocky territory again but this time it looks as if there are no easy ways to ease through - it'll be interesting how Germany reacts post-Merkel as the clouds gather.

Coming back to Brexit or not, if May's bad 'deal' fails again today as looks likely, the GBP 39 billion will leave a hole in the EU budget, that's for sure . . . .  ???

I've heard it mooted that the UK should revoke Article 50 with a commitment to UK voters to invoke again when possible, (say after 2 years), then settle in to a new lively European Parliament for a while looking after the UK's interests as strongly as possible. Then as the Euro and the EU problems gather, invoke Article 50 again and renegotiate a Brexit from the start. The support in Parliament to leave a failing EU may be stronger then than it is now?

I still favour a hard Brexit April 12th - but it's doesn't look likely to happen IMO.

Story's of the UK's demise after Brexit are greatly but greatly exaggerated . . .
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Robert

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #666 on: March 29, 2019, 06:01:11 AM »

Why wish that the Euro looses its value? So many common people will get in trouble. Who are the persons who will suffer the most? Not the billionaires but the average common people! To be complete: I also do not wish that the pound goes down any further as this also gives problems for the persons involved. For me this way of thinking is strange and more looks like: if we (UK) are having a bad time so should others. I am too old for that way of thinking.  I have stated already many times that I did not like the way Euro was introduced with fixed exchange rates. Because of all the issues in the world I get a lot of less baht for my pensions Euro's. Please keep that also in mind when talking about Brexit. The EU also takes measures which I do not like and which have great impact on my life. However I also understand that free trade and custom union add to less costs and (hopefully) cheaper products. Some things are good in life and some are not, compromise, compromise. Most of us have to this every day when living here in Thailand  ;D ;D ;D
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #667 on: March 29, 2019, 07:06:22 AM »

Hi Robert - ''Why wish that the Euro loses its value?''

I'm not wishing it, just observing that the experts, including the IMF, are saying that the Eurozone faces a hard time . . . .
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Robert

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #668 on: March 29, 2019, 07:17:57 AM »

Hi Robert - ''Why wish that the Euro loses its value?''

I'm not wishing it, just observing that the experts, including the IMF, are saying that the Eurozone faces a hard time . . . .

Hi Roger,

maybe I was reading between the lines but I also understand Pound is suffering. In 2008 I got 51 Baht for the Euro and Pound was around 70 Baht.
Now for Euro 35,47 and for Pound 41,47 Baht. We both are loosing money which we like to spend here  ;D ;D

Politicians, hedge funds and money traders are persons/institutes whom I do not fancy too much.
Politicians because they promise the world before elections and when they are in forgetting who they represent.
Hedge Funds and money traders are only concerned about making money for themselves.

In my life have been in around 80 countries, total visits around 300. The richer get richer and the poorer does not get any more money.

Anyway, I am off for a swim now.

Robert
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jivvy

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #669 on: March 29, 2019, 07:19:42 AM »

 >:( >:(
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #670 on: March 29, 2019, 08:20:32 AM »

Very good Jivvy  ;)   ;D
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caller

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #671 on: March 29, 2019, 08:55:33 AM »

Robert, I don't believe the EU worries about the little people. The message from Germany and the North to the Southern states for their woes is more austerity. That's been forced on the ordinary people of Greece for years to come. The same indifference is one of the reasons behind the Brexit vote. When Osborne as Chancellor stood up in Parliament and announced the continued recovery of the economy, he was oblivious to the fact that none of this recovery found it's way to ordinary people, who didn't really see any obvious signs of recovery at all, they just had wage freezes (cuts) and changes to their work contracts.

Germany is in a bind over the plight of the economy and future trajectory of the Euro. To intervene, to move away from the rules, will need the Bundestag's approval and that won't go down well with ordinary people before the EU election. I bet somwething happens once the elections are over. But will that be too late? They are already working on old figures.

Meanwhile, in Italy, Salvini is clearly now the main player. His right wing coalition is winning everything in local elections, wiping out traditional socialist / status quo strongholds. I don't think anyone can impose more austerity on Italy now and I have no idea what will happen there or what the way forward is. But something has to change. There is no point continuing as they are.

« Last Edit: March 29, 2019, 08:58:10 AM by caller »
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #672 on: March 30, 2019, 05:32:50 AM »

May's 'bad deal' failed again by 58 votes and I hope now that we HAVE seen the bl**dy last of it  >:(

So it's 'No Deal' OR a delay mooted between 9 months and 5 years   >:(

Looking for doom ? Bearing in mind and compounding the much discussed problems in the German economy, try these snippets from the DT today :-

''One potentially explosive event we can be certain of. France will take over Italy as the fourth most indebted country in the world. Statistics published this week show that France’s total public debt is now just a whisker behind its southern neighbour, and its spending plans for this year means it will overtake Italy very soon''.

And AE-P in the DT also . .

''Citigroup has issued an explicit recession warning for the United States, advising clients to wind down exposure to risky assets and prepare to ride out the storm. The bank’s global investment team said the US Federal Reserve over-tightened monetary policy last year, waiting too long to stop raising interest rates or to slow the pace of quantitative tightening (reverse QE). The economy is already shot below the waterline and will mostly likely succumb to the textbook pathologies of a fading expansion''.

So it looks to me that we are ALL in for a bumpy ride this year with an economic downturn. IMHO the EU with it's repopulated Parliament and the 'orrible Verhofstadt at the 'elm', is not likely to fare better than anyone else in the coming mire  ;)

NO predictions from me for the GBP/THB rate - but it's my guess that the least favourable scenario's are already priced in  . . .

'No Deal' please   ;D   ;D
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #673 on: April 02, 2019, 06:11:46 PM »

I'm exhausted with Brexit - but have to get this off my chest.

The EU "Mandarins' and other leading European figures bemoan of 'losing patience' as the UK Parliament's suffers contortions in trying to pass agreement of the 'negotiated' ''Withdrawal Agreement'' or anything else.

The UK Parliament's problems are a measure of the brutal and unforgiving 'stitching up' of Mrs May in these farcical negotiations - the EU never intended to give the UK any 'deal' which would be acceptable to the UK Parliament and this is just what they wanted. Now the EU is looking down on the Brits predicament and 'foolishness' in wanting to leave. Masterly. Mrs May shame on you - how did you fall for it ?

The 'orrible Verhofstadt was being very lofty as usual today - let's not forget he was PM of Belgium for 9 years and even now, Belgium has great difficulty in forming a Govt at all, there's been 20 weeks of serious rioting in France whilst Italy and others fulminate on various EU matters and Eurozone problems mount.

It's now confirmed that no matter how long the delay to Brexit, the Withdrawal Agreement will not be reopened. And that a delay to Brexit has risks for the EU  ;)  Yep 39 billion of 'em  ;)

GET ME OUTA HERE !!!  8)

(Caller - sorry to ask but did you see Roger Bootle's monday piece in the DT ?).
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Re: Brexit
« Reply #674 on: April 02, 2019, 07:06:28 PM »

It's extraordinary Roger.

From Day 1 the EU took a position that the UK would crash and burn. The May government colluded. Who knows the intent: a subservient UK? A stronger Federal EU? An end to NATO (and the fingers of Russia pushing this)? We needed a government with strength of purpose from Day 1. May was never going to be this: she was/is a remainer.

On balance I would have favored 'remain and reform'. But the EU have proved to be a federalist cabal. F**k them, call their bluff, drop out. We don't need them.
 
« Last Edit: April 02, 2019, 07:23:30 PM by Mod2 »
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Robert

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #675 on: April 02, 2019, 07:22:00 PM »

I'm exhausted with Brexit - but have to get this off my chest.

The EU "Mandarins' and other leading European figures bemoan of 'losing patience' as the UK Parliament's suffers contortions in trying to pass agreement of the 'negotiated' ''Withdrawal Agreement'' or anything else.

The UK Parliament's problems are a measure of the brutal and unforgiving 'stitching up' of Mrs May in these farcical negotiations - the EU never intended to give the UK any 'deal' which would be acceptable to the UK Parliament and this is just what they wanted. Now the EU is looking down on the Brits predicament and 'foolishness' in wanting to leave. Masterly. Mrs May shame on you - how did you fall for it ?

The 'orrible Verhofstadt was being very lofty as usual today - let's not forget he was PM of Belgium for 9 years and even now, Belgium has great difficulty in forming a Govt at all, there's been 20 weeks of serious rioting in France whilst Italy and others fulminate on various EU matters and Eurozone problems mount.

It's now confirmed that no matter how long the delay to Brexit, the Withdrawal Agreement will not be reopened. And that a delay to Brexit has risks for the EU  ;)  Yep 39 billion of 'em  ;)

GET ME OUTA HERE !!!  8)

(Caller - sorry to ask but did you see Roger Bootle's monday piece in the DT ?).

Hi Roger,

I was tempted NOT to react to your comments but ...... There is a difference between (most) of the EU countries and the UK so I think I should explain. At least in my country there is no 2 party system so in The Netherlands political parties always have to negotiate a deal and compromise. So maybe we are more used to this "game"? But please explain to me why EU should give the UK the best deal for leaving? Why did the House of Commons not react earlier on the proposed deal? Is Mrs May to blame for this? When reading all the stories and seeing all the NO's in any voting I assume it would have been better to find common grounds before closing a deal.  Personally I think UK cabinet overplayed their hand thinking they could deliver the magic card, but boy how they got this wrong.

The EU thinks rightfully that the ball is now in UK's playground. By the way I also do not like Verhofstadt, but the same goes for Nigel Farage for me. I do not like populists left or right, period. For me common sense is more logical and that is what I can understand.

Uk does not want a hard Brexit, voted NO. All other options also got a NO vote so what can EU suggest/change now to let UK leave with an acceptable deal? The UK and EU both do not want a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Only do not agree how to do this in a modern way. Where are the suggestions from the UK what they would like to change? So at least some platform for discussions and maybe changes. But if nothing being put on the table what can EU do otherwise then to stick to the current deal? Love or divorce has to come from both sides IMHO.
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Re: Brexit
« Reply #676 on: April 02, 2019, 07:48:07 PM »

"There is a difference between (most) of the EU countries and the UK."

Yes there is. They are all used to being walked over/conquered/occupied by the Germans or the French.
We are not. And never will be.

Very simplistic I admit, but most Europeans (note that when I say that I mean 'continental Europeans', I do not include the Brits) have never understood this.
De Gaulle did. Bless him.
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caller

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #677 on: April 02, 2019, 07:54:39 PM »

Hi Roger, no didn't read that article - exhausted.

The biggest issue now is that Parliament has largely given up on Brexit. But deep down are scared of the reaction that scrapping Brexit will cause - and it will.

So they are trying to come up with compromises for a soft Brexit that just keeping splitting Parliament. Basically, it's what is the softest Brexit they can get away with? The answer is none.

The only thing that seems to be uniting the Country is how appalled and shocked everyone is with the clowns in Parliament. But they don't seem to be taking any notice of that. One article the other day asked if any of them actually saw ordinary people anymore, so immune do they appear to be of how people feel. 

Now another group is seeking to force an extension to article 50.

I'm just waiting for the time a segment of society starts to react in a hostile way.
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caller

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #678 on: April 02, 2019, 08:11:55 PM »

But please explain to me why EU should give the UK the best deal for leaving?

Because it's in their interests to do so and always has been. But right now that's becoming more important than ever.

"If you are an American hedge fund and/or a Japanese life insurer, what conclusion do you draw about the solvency of the European banking system, or the risk that debt-deflation will lead to a cascade of sovereign defaults? Edward Harrison from Credit Writedowns in the US is not alone in wondering whether the logic of this brinkmanship might prove to be Europe’s “Lehman moment”."

"Airbus has already stated that a full breakdown in cross-channel trade would lead to losses of €1bn a week. The supply chain would “fall apart”. Some 4,000 UK firms supply more than 10,0000 aircraft parts. These include Rolls-Royce engines. The biggest industrial venture in Europe with 108,000 employees would be hobbled for as long as Brussels stuck to its hard-line policy."

"Right now the eurozone is in deepening industrial recession. IHS Markit’s manufacturing PMI fell to a six-year low in March. Germany has seen the worst industrial deterioration since the eurozone banking crisis in July 2012. What happens if the EU impose customs clearance costs on Mercedes parts from suppliers in Coventry-Birmingham in these circumstances?"

"The sovereign/bank "doom loop" remains much as before. It will be tested in Italy where the banks still hold €370bn of Italian state bonds, and the state must roll over or raise €400bn of debt over the next year (€225bn medium and long-term). Deep recession will automatically cause Italy’s debt ratio to ratchet upwards into uncharted terrain."

"The problem for Emmanuel Macron as he fans the flames of a no-deal Brexit is that his banks own a large chunk of Italy’s debt through subsidiaries. Total French exposure is 12 times French GDP, six times its exposure to Greece in 2010."

"Mr Macron’s other problem is that France has shot up the debt league. Combined public, household, and corporate debt has jumped by 67 percentage points of GDP since 2007."(Me: Many believe that France will soon overtake Italy and become the sick man of Europe)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/04/02/no-deal-brexit-existential-crisis-akin-lehmans-collapse-overegged/

There's loads of stuff like this out there and it's not confined to British economists and financial experts.




« Last Edit: April 02, 2019, 08:13:58 PM by caller »
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Roger

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #679 on: April 02, 2019, 10:27:42 PM »

Sorry, lots to reply to, but this has to be first . . HOT off the DT press . . .  :D

''Brexit vote latest news: Emmanuel Macron says EU will not be 'hostage to crisis in the UK' and warns Article 50 extension is not a given''.

I'm afraid Macron is typical of EU arrogance and cleverness - this is a Guy who cannot control his own streets and has a massive disapproval rating in his own France. The fact that France AND the EU have not had the intelligence to offer the UK a sensible deal for Brexit which the UK Parliament could accept, and have only, in the pursuit of defending their own fears for the success of their fragile venture let alone for ever closer union, have bullied the hopeless Mrs May into this position, (with some ease I'm sad to say).

The EU have created the political crisis - Macron's comment is laughable. It'd be better if he shut up on this subject and talked to the people on his own streets. Macron - plonker par excellence. As the French are well aware  ;)

If the EU had any serious nous and wit, they would be protecting their GBP 50 billion surplus into the UK a little more smartly - for example, how about not behaving like total bullying morons and 'negotiate' a deal that the UK Parliament might have been able to accept.

When I read about such attitude, it reinforces my wish to leave. But I do hope Macron has the balls to veto any extension and we can GO   :)   :)   :)   :)
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