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Crypto Currencies

Coolkorat · 26 · 2558

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Online Coolkorat

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It looks as though the Bitcoin/ Etherium etc. market is about to reignite. The price of various currencies has fluctuated recently, but over the last 12 months there have been spectacular ups (and downs).

Is it time to take a closer look? Richard Branson is taking it seriously (https://www.virgin.com/richard-branson/investing-blockchain. There is still a lot that is murky in this particular world. Have a look at some of the many currencies, and in particular some of the names: https://coinmarketcap.com/gainers-losers/#GBP: it doesn't take a genius to see what their planned useage is.

Of the currencies, Ripple looks interesting: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ripple/



Online Roger

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Thanks CK but for myself, I won't be getting into playing with alternative currency. As you say, it seems a murky world indeed. The £ and Baht conundrum is bad enough. ATB
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Offline Alfie

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It's unregulated, isn't it? Far too risky for me. It's a good place for gamblers to win or lose money, but that's not my cup of tea, old chap.


Online Roger

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Has anyone had a gamble on the crypto currency front ?
No doubt a lot of people HAVE made money so far.
I've met some who have traded. But !

Good to see that Mr Buffet agrees with us K-F Members !

''Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said Wednesday that he would never invest in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, and predicted the wildly popular assets are in for a fall. “I can say almost with certainty that cryptocurrencies will come to a bad end,” Buffett told CNBC in an interview. Buffett’s comments were backed by Charlie Munger, his longtime partner at his investment company Berkshire Hathaway, who described the soaring values of Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies as “bubbles”.''

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/10/bitcoin-and-cryptocurrencies-will-come-to-a-bad-end-says-warren-buffett
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online Coolkorat

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As soon as there is a run on the 'currency' major problems will start: there is simply no capital, no assets, nothing. Bitcoin 'banks' will collapse almost instantly and their shady owners disappear. But I do think the concept of distributed ledger technology and the ability to perform complex transactions seamlessly has a place in the world.

Expect to see a lot of tulips over the coming few months!


Online Roger

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From the DT today :-

''Bitcoin's exponential surge in the latter quarter of 2017 became one of the biggest stories of the year. However, if its current trajectory continues, it could become one of the biggest stories of 2018 for all the wrong reasons. After starting 2017 at around $900, the cryptocurrency broke the $11,000 barrier a mere 12 hours after hitting $10,000 at the end of November before rising to a peak in excess of $18,000 shortly afterwards.

The number of Google searches for Bitcoin spiked as hype built, with volume for the week ending December 2 double that for the preceding seven-day period. Search interest peaked the week before Christmas. However, since then it hasn't been plain sailing. A big drop in price in late December was followed by a recovery, but since the start of this year the price has fallen again.

This is a make-or-break time for Bitcoin, the price of which has – so far – followed the trajectory of a classic asset bubble to an eerie degree. If it is a bubble, it is about to burst.

In 2008 Dr Jean-Paul Rodrigue, from the Department of Economics and Geography at Hofstra University in New York, described a four-stage model for the value of an asset during a bubble.
No two bubbles are the same – and the length of the phases will differ from bubble to bubble – but the model is useful in trying to understand what is, or at least could be, going on with Bitcoin.

1. The stealth phase

The first phase – the "stealth" phase – is the point at which early adopters realise that an opportunity for investment is developing. These investors are keen market watchers but also recognise the significant risk of the proposition in these early days. As such, they invest cautiously and without making too much noise. In the case of Bitcoin, these early adopters would now have made a significant return on their early investment – provided they didn't lose their log-in.

2. The awareness phase. As the proposition becomes more obvious other investors start getting involved, pushing up the value of the asset in question. During this phase there could well be an early sell-off as those who are new to the party make a quick profit off the back of the increase.
Hype around the asset will start to gain momentum during this period.

3. The mania phase. This is where the bubble really starts expanding. With word spreading of the investment opportunity, amateur investors start to eye an apparently fail-safe way to make some cash. The hype starts to fuel itself exponentially as the excitement around the increasing value of the asset pushes up the value of the asset. This feeds the delusion that prices can only increase and profits are guaranteed. At this point new investors are more like speculators, with very little interest in the asset itself; they are gambling on price increases. This was evident during the US housing market crash between 2006 and 2009 when purchasing houses just to "flip" them was at its peak.

4. The blow-off phase. This phase is home to a classic Emperor's New Clothes moment that turns the tide from manic buying to panic selling on a large scale. There is no guaranteed signal for when this will occur but at this point the savvy investors will have already started to cash out, leaving a greater concentration of those who made excitement-fueled purchases still in the game. When prices falter, those left in play lose confidence very quickly and the value of the asset plummets just as quickly as it rose before regressing back to the mean of where the market was headed before the bubble. Interestingly, the curve also accounts for the fact that there could be a small recovery in the value of the asset before it begins to plunge to rock bottom, prompting believers to think it will return to "normal". During the famous Dutch Tulip Bubble in the 17th century the price of a bulb rose 20-fold over the course of a few months from November 1636 and February 1637, before plummeting by 99pc by May 1637.

Where does Bitcoin fit in to this model?

Arguments about whether Bitcoin is a bubble or the internet age's answer to the Gold Rush have been bandied backwards and forwards in recent months. Based on Bitcoin's price relative to the theoretical asset bubble curve, the answer is likely to come soon. If Bitcoin is a bubble, then we're at the beginning of the blow-off phase when investors will start to panic and the value of the cryptocurrency will plummet
.''

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/01/11/tesco-ms-tumble-retail-super-thursday-festive-sales-suffer/
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Offline Alfie

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3. The mania phase. This is where the bubble really starts expanding. With word spreading of the investment opportunity, amateur investors start to eye an apparently fail-safe way to make some cash. The hype starts to fuel itself exponentially as the excitement around the increasing value of the asset pushes up the value of the asset. This feeds the delusion that prices can only increase and profits are guaranteed. At this point new investors are more like speculators, with very little interest in the asset itself; they are gambling on price increases. This was evident during the US housing market crash between 2006 and 2009 when purchasing houses just to "flip" them was at its peak.

We are certainly in that phase now. A lot of money will be made in this phase and no doubt some lost too but a lot of people are going to lose when phase 4 hits. And it will, for sure.


Online Roger

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In the DT today :-

''The bubble bursting? - Even Bitcoin's biggest backers seem to have agreed that things got a little out of hand last year, with prices often jumping by thousands of dollars in the space of a few hours. The question now is whether the subsequent fall is a natural correction, or the start of its collapse to zero. The problem is, nobody seems to be any wiser than at any point during the last year.''

And, ''Mr Hobbs of Barclays is less confident: "In a sense, until you can detect a positive intrinsic value for Bitcoin, something which remains elusive until it can find a role for itself in the economy, Bitcoin is not so much an investment as a bet''.

Remembering the song from long ago - I like this description of a moment coming - the ''classic Emperor's New Clothes moment''. GLA

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/01/23/bitcoin-party-cryptocurrencys-wild-ride-could-coming-end/

''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online Roger

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From today's DT, Tom Rees, 2 February 2018 :-

''Bitcoin heads towards $8,000 after plunging 8.2pc to a two-month low
What is Tether, what is its link with Bitfinex and why should Bitcoin investors be worried?
Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple and Litecoin: here are four of Bitcoin's closest rivals
Cryptocurrency market spooked by India's finance minister warning that the Government will        outlaw Bitcoin
Sentiment was also knocked by Facebook banning "deceptive" cryptocurrency adverts
   
Bitcoin's value has crashed by $50bn in just a week after its plunge extended into a fourth day on renewed concerns of regulatory crackdowns in the US and India.

Sentiment on the cryptocurrency market has plunged after India's finance minister took aim at digital currencies and reports surfaced that US regulators are closely watching Bitfinex and Tether, one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges. The digital currency market has also been spooked this week by Facebook banning "deceptive" cryptocurrency adverts with prices still suppressed from fears of a clampdown in South Korea and Japan.

Bitcoin slipped towards the $8,000 mark less than 24 hours after dropping below $10,000, diving 17pc in just two days. Rivals Ethereum and Ripple have also tumbled amid a sell-off in cryptocurrencies, plunging 20pc and 32pc, respectively.
''

Just a few weeks ago a 'young' Man in Chan was talking about Bitcoin and 'Blockchain' technology as being the next 'hot' investment to come. I'll keep mine in the Bank !

Caveat Emptor !   8)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/02/02/bitcoin-extends-freefall-50bn-wiped-value-just-week/
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein



Online Roger

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''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online Coolkorat

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There is an inevitability about events surrounding Bitcoin: it has proved to be a Ponzi scheme suckering the gullible. The warnings about 'tulips' were not misguided. Bear in mind that the early investors in Bitcoin are still way ahead of the market. But you can be sure they cashed their investments as soon as the market climbed.

BUT the technology is very valid. Who are The Ones who know this: the very governments banning Bitcoin. Control of the method of exchange is critical and Central Banks are keen to maintain their dominance. This is no surprise. If money can flow, how do the gatekeepers get paid. The next cryptocurrency should be called Charon.

« Last Edit: February 06, 2018, 04:56:40 PM by Coolkorat »


Online Roger

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The DT comments today on the ''Bank for International Settlements'' latest report :-

''Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic worth and are useless as a form of exchange. They entail exorbitant transaction costs. They are very slow. Together they have turned into an ecological nightmare. They are not backed by the assets and revenues stream of an established state. Most can be rendered worthless by fraud or digital manipulation. They are essentially ponzi schemes that masquerade as citizen currencies beyond government control.

Such are the broad findings of the Bank for International Settlements, the Swiss-based ‘bank of central bankers’ and the leading global authority on the crypto-craze
.''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/17/bitcoin-useless-unsafe-dirty-finds-withering-bis-report/
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online Coolkorat

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At some point, someone very clever will figure out how to link the technology behind cryptocurrencies to something of tangible value. Worth bearing in mind that, since the demise of the gold standard (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard) the value of a currency has been in the hands of the markets. Perhaps this is the "missing link" with cryptocurrencies: trading has not been relative to any logical measure of substantive value. Perhaps the mining giants are looking at cryptocurrencies and seeing the possibilities: if you own a mine in Siberia with a projected value of US$xbillion, could you launch a cryptocurrency? If you are running the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, is this a viable avenue?

As soon as true value can be established, I think cryptocurrencies will be back with a vengeance. And I take anything the Central Banks (with their vested interests) say, with a large pinch of salt.


Online Roger

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CK you sound a little open to this concept - forgive me if I'm wrong ? Catch the wave and you make money but for sure, IMHO, someone down the line will lose out. It's a simple gamble and you need to pick it right . . .

Crypto currencies are based on 'Fear Of Missing Out' - so as long as everyone piles in, the price goes up. But when the currency runs out of believers - there's nowt  :'(

Apparently there are around 1500 cryptocurrencies available now - if you can get some Buyers you have lift off - evangelical selling styles are employed.

Obviously 'Blockchain' technology will have applications.

It's pouring down so I just watched this :-

http://time.com/5195126/john-oliver-cryptocurrencies-last-week-tonight/
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online Coolkorat

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CK you sound a little open to this concept - forgive me if I'm wrong ? Catch the wave and you make money but for sure, IMHO, someone down the line will lose out. It's a simple gamble and you need to pick it right . . .

Cryptocurrencies are based on 'Fear Of Missing Out' - so as long as everyone piles in, the price goes up. But when the currency runs out of believers - there's nowt  :'(

Apparently, there are around 1500 cryptocurrencies available now - if you can get some Buyers you have lift off - evangelical selling styles are employed.

Obviously 'Blockchain' technology will have applications.

I watched the John Oliver piece when it aired. He is a very insightful and there is little to argue against what he says.

I am not a believer in Cryptocurrencies per se. I am a believer in the technology and how it may have applications; the idea of a 'distributed ledger' that is more universally-accessible, rather than the closed ledger administered by a central entity (as currently happens, and where that central entity can exercise fundamental control) should, in theory, create a free market. I don't believe anyone looks at the Bank of England, Federal Reserve(s), European Central Bank etc. and believes for a nanosecond that these are proponents of absolutely free markets.

Going back to my June 18th post, my point was that if you have something tangible to underwrite the scheme then there is merit to looking at Cryptocurrencies as a vehicle for trading. The current trade war between the US and China is a case in point: the shock waves have yet to hit the markets with full force. Trump is advised by an arch anti-China 'economist' whilst ignoring the fact that the US's closest ally has proved a chemical weapons attack on its territory, which has killed a citizen. It is almost as if the deflection to trade (and the mind-boggling numbers) serve as a useful distraction.

Could the ASEAN nations create a cryptocurrency as a vehicle purely for trade, therefore avoiding the USD? Perhaps we are moving in that direction.


Online Roger

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Worth seeing the comments of experts inside the link below !

''Bitcoin turned 10 this year, but there’s not much to celebrate. Its valuation has tanked to new lows in 2018. It touched its 52-week low on November 20, trading at $4,200 level''.

and . . .

''Bitcoin has fallen 30 percent in a month, 50 percent in six months and almost 80 percent since December 2017. The continuous erosion in its price has made the world revisit the statements of skeptics who are being proven right''.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-bears-as-the-cryptocurrency-tanks-these-experts-are-having-the-last-laugh-3209981-6.html
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online Roger

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''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Online Roger

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Here lies many a tale ? IMO Bitcoin will in the end, be worth precisely the value of the metal it's made from  :(  (That's around zilch).

''Until 2016, I ran an advertising agency in London. At our peak, we were highly successful; I had a team of 35 people, a £3m turnover and a Covent Garden office. When the agency folded, I decided to invest in bitcoin.''

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/11/experience-i-lost-1m-on-bitcoin
''If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough'' - Albert Einstein


Offline ken kenobie

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Here lies many a tale ? IMO Bitcoin will in the end, be worth precisely the value of the metal it's made from  :(  (That's around zilch).

''Until 2016, I ran an advertising agency in London. At our peak, we were highly successful; I had a team of 35 people, a £3m turnover and a Covent Garden office. When the agency folded, I decided to invest in bitcoin.''

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/11/experience-i-lost-1m-on-bitcoin

Great read , Ive never really got to grips with cryptocurrencies , but hindsight is a wonderful thing  ;D



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